 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim sawness and dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread that's right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire Dot com or today we are talking win totals for the 2021 NFL season We joined by Edward e-gross of course a professor at SMU in Pepperdine also the host of the odds and at podcast and a One of the analysts on TV cheese more ways to end Thoughts in the favorite win totals this year his win total process what training camp news we should care about and Much more my name is Jim sawness I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire dot com joined here as always by dr. Ed Fang You can find his work over at the powering comm and Ed you are coming to us live from I believe south point south point sports book in Las Vegas correct Yep, I'm at the south point casino and actually the sports books right behind me the recent studio is right over there Yeah Yeah, you know, it's um the governor has a mask mandate for Everyone inside so that's why I am I'm still messed up right now and Yeah, it's been it's been a great time so far, but yeah, I can still hear you clearly. This is great The background looks lively. I'm getting excited to be I mean I just like I don't know I want to go to a sports book right now This is fun and a fun atmosphere, but also like you mentioned you were going to Vegas You didn't mention you'd be like live on set with Gil so like I'm on Twitter today and I see Gil tweet out something and I saw you quote we didn't I was like, oh, that's cool You know Ed's quote tweeting Gil. I know that they were gonna meet up at some point. I'm like, oh Ed's in studio That's really cool. It's fun. You know, it's kind of a lot different when you're on that side of things Right. Yeah, it kind of looks a certain way when you see the show when you see the clips on Twitter and But yeah, it's a little bit different being in the studio And I'm actually staying here at the South Point so I woke I got some coffee this morning and Vecen's like a cable network there, right? So you just flip on the TV you turn on some Vecen You hear Gil Alexander talking with Aaron shots about NFL win totals. So very pleasant morning I mean, that sounds great. And then you get on you just join him because why not that is that is the life of Ed This week. What else is on your docker for this week in Vegas? Got a bunch of meetings set up I'm gonna talk with Chris Andrews. I think tomorrow and Yeah, just see what kind of trouble I can make I got some some data visualizations I don't know if you can see that but this is the some of the stuff I talked about on the show last week and so Gonna be passing some of those around So if you are in Vegas, yeah, definitely hit me up on Twitter and Love the chat. So if you're passing out this stuff for your work, can you do this as a tax write-off? Like can you write off part of this trip? I mean the power ain't paid for the trip. So there's nothing really to write off. Wonderful. This is great. Okay. I love it Okay, so Ed is Making the most of his time and you mentioned some meetings You're gonna meeting with Edward e-grass. He's gonna be joining you in Vegas later on this week, too That's gonna be fun to have two of our favorites all in the same place. Yep. Absolutely. We joining me in a little bit And yeah, it'll be a good time And we're gonna preview that by talking to Edward in just a bit find Edward on Twitter at Ed with sports Of course, he is the host the odds and Ed's podcast right here on the fan to a podcast network He is the one of the analysts on TV G's more ways to win Which I believe their first episode is Thursday of this week tomorrow So you can find that on TV G my TV G had is somewhere over there My TV G account is lower than it should be so I'll have to restock after watching Ed over there later on where to talk wind totals his process for that and much more if you want some more NFL Podcasts we have done plenty recently here the month of August. We had JJ Zacharias and on talking player props We had Aaron Dolan on talk about divisional outrides and all that and also got some college football talk on last week It drew Martin talk about the futures market there talked about a championship bet He likes and also some wind totals on the college side of things to get all those search for covering the spread wherever you get Your podcast we are an upper podcast spotify stitcher Wherever you want to find us you can get us there and make sure you leave a rating and review as well We're going to talk to Edward E. Gross in just one second the first day sports fans Fandals offering an exclusive promotion for new sportsbook users join Fandals sportsbook today and make your first bet If you lose we'll give you a refund up to $1,000 in site credit within 72 hours Your first bet after depositing will qualify if you have multiple selections on one bet slip It will be the first selection you made head over to the fandals sportsbook today and place your first bet must be 21 Plus and present colorado iowa illinois indiana michigan new jersey pennsylvania tennessee virginia or rest virginia New users only max refund $1,000 site credit c-fold terms at sportsbook dot fandal dot com gambling problem called 100 gambler in colorado 105 to 22 4700 in iowa 100 bets off in indiana 1809 with it for confidential help in michigan 1802 707 117 for uh help in uh Tennessee called the red line 1808 9979 or in west virginia visit 1 800 gambler dot net Covering the present Let's bring edward e gross back into covering the spread once again this time talking nfl because with edward We have to clarify what it is because he covers 93 different things or so for odds and ends everyone else So edward welcome back. How are you doing today? I'm doing well doing well. Uh, i'm upset that my backdrop isn't nearly as nice looking as eds, but That's all right. We'll roll with it Yeah, eds is uh dynamic, which is fun. Mine is very boring You know yours at least is the deep blue, which I think is is nice and it uh, it brings out the eyes You know, we're going to go deep with the analytics here on that as well Now you were talking before the show about how classes for you start next week. Is that for bold? Are you teaching at both smu and pepperdine this year? Are you just doing one this semester? Yes, so next week smu begins and then in two weeks, uh pepperdine kicks off and Pepperdine will now be back in person. So I unfortunately have to brave the pacific coast highway And the ocean scenery to get to class which is going to be difficult, but I'm willing to make that sacrifice So you're gonna become a california traffic guy now. Are you prepared for that mentally to be the case? I I don't know if I am like it's one of those things like you don't know how much of a challenge Is going to be until you actually jump right on in I I am learning the highways and byways and like eight different ways to get to the same place And I I don't have like my favorite traffic reporters in town yet But if anybody is watching and we're listening, uh, feel free to nominate someone because uh, hey adding new friends in la isn't a bad idea Okay, this is good. Um, I I am into this for sure excited to see how this plays out You're preparing doing prep and we as always appreciate that for sure We're talking about some prep here too because we're talking about wind totals across the NFL and For a lot of people at least for me It was a pretty involved process to build up my wind total projections and stuff like that There's a lot of factors that go into it and The tough thing I think Edward is deciding Do we want to account for stuff that occurs during preseason? Do we want to ignore it? And I think that for me I've been hesitant to change things based on outside of injuries based on what we read during the preseason But what about for you reading training camp tidbits? What do you need to read in order to actually alter your priors for things heading into the year based on what happens at training camp outside of injuries? So I have perhaps a different perspective than many do as far as that's concerned So in terms of my background, I covered the Cowboys for six seasons And before that I sort of covered the Tennessee Titans from a distance And so I'd say in terms of the camp preseason process I probably have about maybe a decade under my belt of doing it regularly And whenever I was a reporter, there were a couple of things I did one I would go to practice and like you just said, I'm checking for injuries I'm checking to see if anybody gets hurt and I'm also checking to see if anybody's laboring So just because someone may not necessarily be on the injury report doesn't mean that they are 100 percent Someone may be 85 percent and it's just enough for you to pay attention And that's something that you can mark down and pay attention to and you can get reports on those kinds of things and that's fine But outside of that typically the big thing that I had to do was find some wacky quirky storyline to make the day go by Such as asking Chris Johnson what he had for breakfast that day And that was basically what my responsibility was as a local television reporter And that's probably not that useful as far as putting together your win totals So to me not that camp is useless from a better's perspective And not that preseason games are useless either I think there's a lot of information you can glean from but keep in mind that things are simplified for games And you're you're playing a lot of backups against other backups And so there are a lot of matchups that you're not necessarily going to see in the regular season The only thing I would add too is that if you're watching camp carefully You can get a lot of good information as far as you know, how crisp tackles are or how a backup quarterback handles Dine packages those kinds of things can be useful The problem is Then you have to compare that to how 31 other camps are going And no one reporter can really do that And so for you to do real legitimate homework, you probably have to be at all 32 camps And that's just not practical for any of us So again, not that this information is useless, but to be able to really put together something dynamic It's hard to do it without real consistent data And that's not going to be as readily available this time of year compared with actual games Yeah, absolutely. So Edward in the preseason, we're thinking about betting wind totals It's a tough thing because your money's locked up for months How do you is that a market that you like or do you like maybe trying to do some of the division win odds Where you can get a little better return Well, it's one of those things where it's not just about a potential payout. It's also about a potential loss as well So if you're chasing plus money everywhere, then you are likely or to go broke a good bit sooner than most everyone else What's interesting to me is that when we're talking about wind totals You can have like other analytically driven people In your friendship circles disagreeing with you about, you know, any one particular team I was talking with a buddy of mine earlier this week as a matter of fact When we were talking about Kentucky and it's seven and a half wind total and we're looking at the schedule And there are a lot of easy wins and there are a lot of obvious losses like against Dallas shoe and Florida and Georgia And then we came down to the last game against Louisville And I'm a lot more bullish with Louisville than say my buddy was and so he was coming up with a wind total of nine And I was coming up with eight. We're both over but One is a lot more Convincing as far as an over bet is concerned Whereas mine I'm thinking seven and a half is about right because you know, you may have something fluky happen against Tennessee It is college football. I'm not comfortable with this. And so when I'm looking at wind totals Yeah, you are, you know tying down your money significantly But at the same time if I find a wind total that is like one and a half or two above or below What the number is I'm looking for those inefficient markets and they're even in the NFL You're going to find a team which I assume we'll be talking about soon But you're going to find a team that has an inefficient number and those are the things that I'm looking for And besides on the fandal sportsbook you can find alternate wind totals Right if you you are really convincing a really convinced about something being two or three above or below What the number should be then go after that So, you know, for instance, uh, you know, I'm looking at You know Jacksonville for instance at six and a half That's one that I find really intriguing because I really like this team obvious upgrade at quarterback The receiving core is really really solid Defense may have some positive regression to the mean And so if you go to eight and a half and take that over you get plus 270 or seven and a half is plus 170 And you won't get any argument for me as far as either I'm concerned Especially given Jacksonville's easier schedule in the afc sound So that's that's a route you do have but for you do you find yourself Going to those alternate markets or do you like to stick with the The more the less juiced markets and stuff like that to give yourself the better odds of actually winning your bet I probably go less juice as far as wind totals are concerned now You know as we talked about alternate spreads and alternate totals over the years That's something where I'm willing to you know, sort of place my own bets and make my own numbers there Uh, but as far as wind totals are concerned Every so often I might find something juicy And I do like to at least pay attention to those things in case I find something really nice But for the most part, I think your basic wind totals are usually about right And if I can find something comfortable, then I go ahead and pounce Okay, so let's talk about some wind totals here And I think the best way to do this is break teams into tiers because Obviously you're a math guy you understand betting towards the mean and That means I feel like we do need to break things up We'll look at the top teams first then look at the the mid-tier teams and the bottom teams because again They're all very different discussions here. Let's start with the top teams There are seven teams right now with a wind total of 10 and a half or higher Actually eight now because the packers are up to 10 and a half. They were 10 previously been out 10 and a half We got the chiefs bucks bills ravens 49ers rams browns and packers in this top tier And if you want to go over 10 and a half, that's an 11 and 6 record for this year So, you know, you need to have a pretty good team anything stand out to you there in terms of overs Or is it just unders for you in this tier? Well 11 and 6 is not just you know having a good team but you know injury injuries have to go in your favor as far as not having them Things have to click in terms of coach, you know coaching and play calling play design things like that A lot of things have to happen for you to get to 11 wins And so it's something where for the most part I tend to steer clear of that But one team that I do love As far as an over is concerned and I know it's a bit of a cheap way out But I'm taking the buccaneers to go over here and it's one of those things where I think we forget that Tampa Bay Didn't have a phenomenal regular season It was good enough obviously to to make the playoffs But I wouldn't necessarily call it a banner year there It's just that once they got to the playoffs things started to come together And defensively which you know the focus where I want to you know place my attention on Uh drop back epa and non-garbage time for the buccaneers was 13th out of 32 teams And yeah epa per rush defensively was first and I know that's not stable But past defense has a lot more to do with your overall success And I think when we watched that super bowl and what the bux did to pat mahomes And the fact that they weren't blitzing and still causing a lot of pressure wreaking a lot of havoc preventing, you know Long throws down the field to me that says that this past defense has room for real growth and that they're going to experience Positive regression to the mean so to me the bux have a couple of things going their way one In terms of offensive stability that should still be there with tom brady defensively I think the past uh the past defense should be a good bit better this go round than last And let's also not forget that they're not having to face drew breeze anymore So really there are three things i'm pointing to say you know what I think the buccaneers could be even better this go around I don't necessarily think I like them making the super bowl any better But the overwind total is is fine with me there now as far as an under as far as this top tier is concerned I'm going with cleveland here. I have some real reservations about the browns last season's expected record Was a shade below eight and eight yet they went 11 and five telling me that they want a lot of close games Which typically isn't consistent from one year to the next You know that should be a cause for concern Uh, you're exaggerating a win over a bad offensive team in pittsburgh during the playoffs And then you face kansas city when pat mahomes didn't finish the game Baker mayfield also had the second longest time to throw of any starting quarterback in the nfl And usually that leads to some problems. Uh, if that persists instead of getting the ball out much more quickly So there are enough reasons for me to believe that things can sort of fall back down to more of a 500 kind of record for the Browns and again the division they're in is really really tough and I don't think we should discount that either Uh with the ravens the the bingles could be really good. Yeah, I'm not a you know big fan of the stealers, but There are enough reasons to look at that schedule and feel like that the browns could fall back down to reality I think that if you want the browns to get to 10 and a half over 10 and a half You have to expect that past defense to make a massive massively forward I'm expecting to be better because they got a lot of Good pieces to to add to that team They had a lot of injuries last year in the secondary and I think they've got depth there now Which they did not have but even when I Improved their past defense projection a pretty decent amount from where it was last year I sold them a nine and a half wins. That's a full win below this number I have not bet the under because I am not allowed like in this household to bet against my son Baker Mayfield but Like I I haven't gotten there yet, but like my numbers do agree with you that that 10 and a half is pretty lofty So I think I think based on Needing expectations for this past defense. It's really tough for me to get 10 and a half personally Yeah, yeah Unlike you Jim, I have bet that under okay Get it here at the south point sportsbook, uh, not too long ago So definitely agree with what Edward saying. I don't have the same love for Baker Mayfield that you do I did want to ask Edward though, uh, you know, Tom Brady is not a spring chicken So any reservations there About betting the Tampa that Tampa Bay over I I really don't and and it's it's one of those things where We've talked about Tom Brady being over the hill for the last like 10 years now At some point it will fall off and when you look at older quarterbacks, it usually happens pretty quickly Whenever that fall off that precipitous fall occurs But until it does I I still feel comfortable and it's one of those things too where I go back to You know not this off season But the one prior and I got to believe that Tom Brady Who should know himself better than anybody and knows sort of what his Clock is telling him He wants to go to the best situation that can sort of extend his career as long as possible And that receiving core is still really really good to where okay, maybe has to play, you know To the tune of shorter throws getting the ball out much more quickly. Well, he has receivers who can do that Drew Brees was able to extend his career By a few years basically by relying on Michael Thomas a good bit There's no reason why the Buccaneers with that personnel can't do something similar if Tom Brady does have that drop off this year Excellent. Yeah, I think that makes a lot of sense. Um, and I think that will I mean, I've I've stopped giving up on Tom Brady So I think that uh, I'll just uh ride along with you there as well Let's talk with the middle teams now. Uh, we've got teams with a wind total between seven and a half and 10 And here Unlike with the Browns, we're not betting towards the mean because they're basically have to mean to begin with So we're actually looking for teams. We may be higher on or lower on the market Do you see any value in this tier Edward? Well, one note I'll make before uh offering my two teams is that I think if you're looking at say Pythagorean expected records and I know I've alluded to it earlier as far as the Browns are concerned To me this middle tier is probably where you will have your best opportunity to exploit That sort of plexiglass principle where one season it went really well the next season I won't go uh, so swimmingly because I feel like that with the expected records The tails get a little bit misleading So if someone was extremely good or extremely bad that That formula may not hold as much water because the tails are a good bit thinner Whereas this is really the the area where I want to look at those expected records and feel much more Comfortable about what I'm getting so it's one of the reasons why The Tennessee Titans for instance, I'm taking an under on them It's it's something where it's very possible that they can still win the division but I do have some real reservations about ryan tannahill In large part because I think what sort of gave him new life in nashville was play action And as we know play action makes you a better quarterback makes you a better offense in general And I know he's getting julio jones now But I also know that the pieces that they lost were also significant and there were some play action quick throws slants things like that That really made that offense click and I'm not sure if that's still going to be there this time around So there are enough significant changes for me to have some reservations about the titans and it You know, it's also something where okay, they do a lot of play action It doesn't necessarily mean that they are an analytically driven franchise I wonder if we look at like one or two things that are analytical and go. All right. Yeah, that's exactly So now everything works and they've got this robust data science department. Well, not necessarily You know how they handle fourth downs has been abysmal For instance, and so there are a lot and I think even the personnel that they've hired within the franchise Uh, you know, I think they just got their first data scientist like a week ago or something like that I I'd have to double check that. You know, I know south wallard keeps up with those things better than I do But uh, still there are a lot of concerns as far as the titans. I'll take the under there What over I love the Atlanta falcons. Yes, they're in the same division with the buccaneers, but Uh, matt ryan, I think can still play well The nfc draws the afc east a division with a lot of uncertainty I I do like the jets I don't know if I'm in love with them just yet The patriots have some quarterback questions with cam newton and when to bring in mac jones Uh, the bills, you know, what are we going to get out of josh allan? Basically I look at the falcon schedule and go there are Some easy wins and there are a lot of uncertain possibilities to where all you need to do is get to eight and you've hit You're over and I'm comfortable with that bet Excellent So everyone let's go to the bottom uh part of the nfl teams that we're not expecting to do That well, we're talking giants raiders bangles, uh jags eagles jets lions, uh texans So this is a a group that you would bet over if you expect some kind of regression to the mean Uh any thoughts about these things? so Ed this may be an opportunity for us to disagree and have a battle royale before uh, you know before uh hanging out in vegas But I feel pretty good about the giants and I know that daniel jones Is very turnover prone and fumbles and gets sacked and has All sorts of issues in terms of possessions ending the way he doesn't want them to So yeah, those are concerns, but first off it's a low number and I think when we evaluate the nfc east from a year ago We like to just say, oh, you know, they they were all terrible You know, there was no good team there and you know, they're gonna be bad again Well, keep in mind that they were going up against the afc north when the stealers won that division The ravens were good. The browns were good. That was a really tough schedule for everybody. So I look at that and Feel like those win totals may be deflated a little bit and there may be an opportunity there Everything too is that if the giants do have a healthy sake one barkley I don't necessarily care about the running game but he will be used a good bit out of the backfield and Having that additional receiver with jason garrett is the office of coordinator Who does love to throw to the running back for some reason certainly did it a lot with zeke and the cowboys I feel like that's just another dynamic opportunity For the giants has scored just enough to get over that that hop now as far as an under sticking in that division I don't know what we're gonna get a Get out of the philadelphia eagles This year I feel like defensively they maybe do for a little bit of regression even though they have a phenomenal front seven I don't know what to expect out of jail and hurts the receiving core was really banged up They have to basically redo that offense from the last few years. It was basically Centered around the tight end because of short throws Yards after completion all those things Uh, especially play action to the tight ends now They can't really do that anymore because they need the tight ends to block for a mobile quarterback I don't know how quickly they'll be able to sort of transition seamlessly and you know Is is jail and hurts really the guy they want there? That's also a big question He was 31st out of 38 Qualifying quarterbacks and epa cpoe composite a good quarterback metric for uh, you know overall abilities I Have enough doubts there to where I believe they're plus 1500 to have the worst regular season record I love that value there. I get the texans, you know, won't be formidable and there are few other teams like the lions That may do a little bit worse, but at plus 1500 for the eagles have the worst record I I might pounce on that one. I think the reason that that is enticing and betting against Philadelphia in general is in part because of what they've done this all season But also the way their schedule sets up they have told us with the way They have been planning that they are mostly looking towards 2022 and beyond acquiring future first round picks and stuff like that But also their schedule is brutal the first six weeks for They're four lowest win probabilities in my numbers the entire season all occur in the first six weeks They have Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Dallas and san francisco all within those first six weeks Does not count carolina or atlanta because who cares there, but like Let's say they get to week six. They could be oh and six at that point you tank And so 15 to one to have the worst record in a situation where they could be in week six without a win I think that that's really enticing. I know that pro football focus doctor here I believe has mentioned that one as well as being enticing and I think that with the way You know my numbers don't like the eagles either the way that combines with the way their schedule sets up in the way They've acted this off season. I think that's a convergence of a lot of things that can lead you towards that one answer 76ers basically built their franchise that way and they're just down the road So why not do the same thing eagles the process is not dead just born again in a different franchise So we don't want to limit you here to just win totals any other bets futures bets you're liking for this nfl season Yeah, how about jacksonville to make the playoffs? I mentioned them as an over How about we go a little bit deeper here and say uh, they'll they'll make it to january I think that You know, I mentioned before that the afc south is going to be brutal No faith in the cults no faith in the texan. So right away the jaguars Could get four and oh there within the division then what's going to happen against the titans So basically it's a 50 50 chance as far as you know, who's going to win the division Maybe the titans deserve a slight edge there, but like I mentioned before Big upgrade as far as quarterback is concerned. I think as far as like the analytical folks. Yeah the jaguars are Not doing themselves too many favors as far as a long term Making terms of you know getting a running back in the first round and those kinds of things Yeah, I completely agree that in the long term The jaguars are not a team that I would necessarily you know want to keep boasting But in the short term Offensively they have a lot of weapons and it's just a matter of if trevor laurence You know has a short learning curve or a you know small learning curve And can implement this sort of urban meyer style and now he's still a good offensive play designer And that's it's not like he lost those skills by not being in coaching for the last couple of years. So You know the big thing for me is Okay Are these offensive playmakers going to come together at plus 300 give or take That's a pretty solid number given that the afc very much can be top heavy And you're expecting them to win the division out of two potential teams And even if they don't are there gonna be enough teams around to sort of supplement those wildcard spots I'm not sure at this point. So to me jackson will make the playoffs. I think it's a good number All right, I like it But ever they don't they don't have the ultimate weapon in titan tim tebow anymore. Is there any concern there? There is uh, there is i'm concerned about uh leadership I'm concerned about morale and momentum and uh help me out. What are some other fluff culture? culture, yes Yeah, without culture and and Magnanimous personalities big muscles Yeah, uh the ability to to you know think and and feel and and and win one for the gipper like that's gone now Yeah, uh because Deeply philosophical. I love it now. You mentioned you're gonna be in vegas with ed this week So any big plans for you to uh for this weekend out in vegas? uh What happens in vegas stays in vegas jim I You know, it's one of those things like we certainly have come up with like a couple of places to go eat and Maybe a couple of books to check out or or some casinos to check out But other than that I feel like vegas it's best not to plan too much unless you absolutely have to I've never been. I mean where the winner goes to vegas. They go to sports books and they probably eat so Yeah, what else could you need? What what else could you need that sounds great? Yeah, grab a couple lemonades Enjoy the Edward enjoy the lemonade enjoy the sports books Enjoy the food enjoy vegas enjoy time with ed and hopefully we will talk to you once again here on covering the spread in the very near future Are you assuming that I won't survive this trip? I give it like I'll put the odds you survive it at minus 190 what about that? That's it. That's implied. It's 63 about that. Yeah. So, uh, you know, you know, the odds are on your side But there's there's some room for shenanigans in there for sure There are but I was thinking at least 200s here. Okay minus 230 The odds have moved you got heavy money on the on on your side here. So you're good fair fair Alrighty, that is edward egros Follow him on twitter at edwithsports and check out the odds and ed's podcast and on tvg's more ways to win Which is back once again this week. Edward. We appreciate it. We'll talk to you again soon absolutely covering the future Big thank you once again to edward egros for swinging by and breaking down his thoughts on the 2021 NFL season specifically talking when totals and ed I don't know if it was on air or not last week But you were talking about how you thought you needed to talk about the browns and the titans as being teams That could be contenders for an under and what do you know? Edward egros comes on talks about both those teams. Uh, so it seemed like you're on the same page there Yeah, and erin shots talked about the those same teams with uh with gill this morning And on my podcast. So, you know, I think it's good that that we all necessarily agree. I already mentioned that I bet browns under Uh, I was gonna bet titans under here, but the price wasn't that good. So I'll do it somewhere else um The the preview series that on my on the football analytics show starts next monday And so that first episode you'll figure out exactly why uh, I like titans under Although I actually don't like that as much as browns under. I think that that's probably my favorite favorite call So I think when you look at the analytics and your numbers seem to agree with it as well So I think when when there's kind of agreement, uh, I feel pretty good about that I feel like it was the same as like the bears a couple years ago After they had that playoff season really good run and regression was the word of the day and That was pretty easy and then um, so yeah, it's it's nice when we all agree We get a little wisdom of crowds effect and uh, it's good to hear even even if he does steal my thunder a little bit Right, exactly. So the you know, the stolen thunder is a buzzkill But hey if your bet looks better that helps too, I will say that there is There are a couple people who are on the browns in terms of like upside bets I know my clay of ESPN a guy who I respect a lot is big in the browns from a super bowl perspective this year So not full consensus among smart people who I respect against the browns, but um My numbers say under your numbers say under I there it does seem like most of the buzz does skew that direction I just feel like for them to make a super bowl A lot of things need to go right on both sides of the ball Like I feel like Baker needs to make another leap, you know My numbers didn't particularly like what that unit did last year And then you know like they brought in Troy Hill and John Johnson from the Rams And those guys were incredible in the secondary last year So can they be incredible again? Well, maybe and then maybe they're not the 27th fourth past defense, right? But I just feel like There's a lot of things that have to go right and I just don't see them all going right So let's see here. I have the brown or last year the browns past defense, uh ranked So 29th by number fires metrics. I had them projected to rank 19th this year. So that's a big difference. I still have an under I said the nine and a half wins so like to be I mean, but even if that's the case like you need to be a top five pass offense to be a super bowl contender based on that, right? right And as much as I love Baker top five passing offense is tough Yeah, I was asking a lot So let's talk about another top five passing offense and because you're covering the future is about the Detroit Lions Obviously destined to be a top five passing offense. What are you seeing with them in terms of the futures market? Yeah, so so it was interesting. I was either thinking about talking about Cleveland, Tennessee or or Detroit Um, I'm glad I picked Detroit. So we have something different To talk about I think this team is going to be a complete dumpster fire this year I don't know how else to put it And it's actually not because of head coach Dan Campbell and the famous press conference about biting kneecaps and yada yada yada You know, he might be fine But think about it this way. I mean, I know they're kind of taking a long-term approach But they downgraded at the quarterback position Uh, they're they're they have Jared golf now instead of of Matthew Stafford Anthony Lynn is the new offensive coordinator. He's been an offensive coordinator one year of his career So it's not like they're bringing in like a long time offensive mastermind Uh by any stretch and they gutted themselves at the wide receiver position So So that's not good. You look at the defensive side of the ball This was by far the worst team in terms of past defense last year The number three picked Jeffrey Okuta had a pff cover grade of 30 out of 100 That's that's not good. That's that's well below the mean And you know, they're they're relying on quitting Dunbar to bring in they brought him in the at the quarterback position I don't see good things on either side, right and the lions and you know GM Brad Holmes is kind of taking this approach where they they focus a lot of their salary on the offensive defensive line with some of their signings And I just feel like that goes away from where the modern NFL is going where It's a quarterback passing league And and you need to be able to cover and I think the Detroit Lions do those two things that like bottom five NFL levels So so what does this mean? I mean their win totals at five I I can't really bet under five It just the the history of the NFL suggests against that just with regression to the mean and Everything should regressed eight and a half wins, you know, you get lucky here in there I'm thinking about some alternative win totals possibly to bet But like I really feel like this team is going to be bad and bad and maybe in an epically historic way And I think that's a fair inclination and my numbers agree. I have Detroit at 5.4 wins So Similar to what you were saying five is a low number It's hard to take an under there But the only team below them is houston right now based on my number. So it's detroit 31 houston 32 Are you thinking like a Detroit's worst record type thing like is it far enough where you would consider that for them or no? Yeah, for sure. I mean, I need I need to get to my research on houston before I do that Yeah, stuff like that, you know, I mean, there are a seven point dog at home to san francisco Week one, you know, my numbers kind of have it exactly at seven Um, but definitely a team I'm looking to bet against for sure. I don't know if that's going to be week one I don't know if that's going to be week two But I think the the word of the year for detroit is dumpster fire. I think this is going to be bad Yeah, I have a seven point zero one one for that first game. So again lockstep here, which makes me feel better about Where my things are at right now in the alliance also fit the narrative that I was talking about the eagles where Their actions this offseason has said Deering for the future the jared golf thing is is separate from that because it seemed like they got him To get an additional first round pick so he does go counter to that narrative because he's not like the worst quarterback of the planet, but It seems like they took on his contract with the intention of just getting an extra first round pick which makes sense So I do think that that that does back of what you're saying they're focused in the future just like the eagles and we should account for that when projecting how we think think teams will perform except for me here I want to go the opposite end of the spectrum. Good Oh, I was just gonna say and jared golf is not the worst Quarterback on the planet. Maybe because he's had sean mcvay for the last couple years So are you saying anthony lin is not sean mcvay? I'm saying anthony lin is not sean mcvay because they are two separate people They're not the same person But you know confirming that we try to be accurate here I'll work on confirmation that they're not the same But we'll we'll save that for next week in covering the past I want to talk positives here because why not we've talked about a lot of unders So I'm talking about the other side of the spectrum because I've not made a superbowl bet yet on this podcast for this year I've talked player props win totals Division of odds make misses the playoffs etc etc of my first superbowl future potentially the only one because I'm not a huge Superbowl future is better Will be the packers to win it at plus 1200 the reason is that I think that they're a top tier team in the sport and Their view is being a full tier below the cheese in the box the cheese are plus 500 Bucks are plus 650 and it's a full tier down to the bills and packers at 12 to 1 I don't think the gap should be quite that big and to me Those four teams the teams that were in the the championship game last year Are in the top tier in the league The reason I think the packers upside may be underrated this year is their defense They were 12th and overall defensive efficiency last year based on number fires metrics They were 13th against the pass so middling But that was with mike pedin as their defensive coordinator and they hired joe barry who Doesn't have a good track record as a defensive coordinator, but He didn't have good individual talent that he Had on those rosters that he has in this roster They've got great players at key positions gyre alexander adrian amos Is an area smith at important positions where you want to stop the pass those guys all help you do Exactly that if you put players of that caliber at these positions on this roster I think your defense has upside right now I have green bay third my power rankings behind kansas city and tampa bay and That's under the assumption that their defense is very very similar to what it was last year But I think they've got upside to outperform that and be better and if they reach that upside defensively They will close that gap between the chiefs and the bucks in a hurry So to bet a super bowl future. I need a team that has a path to a ceiling I think they're having erin rogers and having a defense that has talented players at key positions Means the packers have a ceiling so betting them at 12 to 1 to me is super attractive And I think it's worthwhile to make my first bet on the super bowl be on the packers at 12 to 1 Now I had I know in the past like 2019 when the packers had that 13 win season you Were not buying it. I wasn't either at that time What about 2021 how are you feeling about this version of this packers team? Well, the reason I wasn't buying it in the past was because erin riders that come off a stretch of four not elite seasons and Exactly the opposite is true. He was phenomenal last year. He was erin riders that we all knew could happen And you know motivation might be an issue. I don't know but I mean once he gets back out there you know as all the drama of the off season and draft day announcements of things I don't know. I kind of think that all goes out the door when you hit the field week one All of a sudden it's just competition and you want to win and I think that instinct just kind of takes over so I think you'll be capable of being very good and I agree with you I think they have a lot of key pieces on the defense side of the ball. My metrics Agree with number fires almost exactly from last year, but you know Jair X Alexander was the top rated cornerback in the entire NFL by pff um That's a little bit volatile But but he's clearly a super um a very talented player that you can build that secondary round So, yeah, no, I agree with all the things that you're saying All right, so the Packers uh to win the Super Bowl the Lions to Not our focus for covering the future for this week That is all that we have here on covering the spread for this week But we are gearing up for NFL season So make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast apple podcast spotify stitcher It does not matter find us there hit subscribe and if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well Big thank you to Edward e-gross find him on twitter at edwin sports checking out on tv g's more ways to win Also checking out on the odds and ed's podcast as well ed What is going on with you this week over at the power rank while you're out in vegas? Yeah, so football analytics show I talked with phil steel publisher of the college football preview magazine. It was a great conversation To say the least the man knows a lot about college football So it was great to pick his brain great to get some of his projections I was a little bit surprised about who he picked to win the entire The the college football national championship So so go check that out the football analytics show and then i'm really excited We're doing the preview series the next two weeks These are 10 minute episodes for every weekday the next two weeks and some of the episodes are me some of them are Edward e-gross i'm very very excited about the the one he did on heisman bedding and Yeah, so please check that out football analytics show and then i'm writing my email newsletter at thepowerrank.com There will be a correspondence going out on thursday this week about the cleveland browns. You probably know where I stand on them but um But there's going to be a lot more There's going to be a lot more Football content heading into the season so check that out at thepowerrank.com Yeah, we had edward on to talk heisman bedding two years ago and Really the in-depth research on what you want to look for in heisman bed So uh looking forward to that football analytics show to get the previews and the fill steel episode and thepowerrank.com To get the email newsletter. I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to calvin theobald our video producer for shopping up some video clips For the fan dual social account from this podcast. Thank you cal as always And thank you to everyone for tuning in good luck to you this week with whatever you're betting on We'll talk to you once again next week for likely some more nfl discussion This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network Aaron dolin here. Thanks for watching and make sure you click below on that subscribe button for more great fan dual content And check out some of our latest uploads and playlists right over here