 The following is a presentation of TFNN power trading hour with your host David White call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-445-1044 now David White and welcome all to another exciting edition of the power trading hour with me your humble and yet squeeze really soft host as always we like to come to you at this time the following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. so 21 almost 22 points on the SNP cash at 2866 the Dow 30 up 152 NASDAQ up 68 69 Russell 2000 up about five of course we had a fairly decent pullback why we don't have the absolute number for options for Delta neutral we're gonna get those tomorrow we had a huge move yesterday that pushed up more than likely as far as the data now better than a 50% chance that we close above 2900 come the 16th of August so there's pretty good odds that we're gonna close higher over the next week maybe not a lot higher maybe we have kind of a sideways market to digest a lot of the news over the last week or two but if you're thinking you're gonna hear me saying the end is nigh I don't think so the market was weak it had had light volume up there at the highs but we really haven't seen the deterioration in earnings that generally comes before any long time or long term pullback in the market again options are actually rather bullish at least for the next three and let's call it eight trading days we'll see if that goes in it's a lot more predictive tomorrow the numbers could go up from a of the odds of a 2900 or higher close on the 16th in the S&P cash to 80% tomorrow we'll see but fairly decent odds that we're probably not going to have anything lower than we saw yesterday so kind of an interesting play on it today is the end of fun buying on probably 99% of the ETFs we'll say that they're going to be 100% long at a certain date there's no real penalty if they don't but very few of them are not 100% invested by the time the 6th of a month rolls around when we look at volume of course we're actually starting to see you know volume that we saw before 4.7 billion shares so far today so actually a fairly strong volume both down and up for August when are normally it's about half speed and of course probably the biggest thing we want to look at is the dollar index it's up 14 cents 9745 when you look at it it just been kind of trending up since last night in this price range a little a little bit I'm going to say that skewed a little bit just slightly higher as we go through that and of course for the big things it's the it's where is it had out here we want to keep an eye on is the TLT we're up in that 139 range which is again kind of in the nosebleed section for these would not be surprised to see yet another huge move maybe even to the downside in the TLT really looks like they push this maybe as hard as they could and I don't know if there's a great deal left out there we'll talk about some of the big stocks we'll talk about earnings last night and this morning earnings after the bell tonight we're going to have at least a couple that could move the markets a little bit we'll see how that goes in the meantime let's do a little history we'll get into some charts the following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. and oh we already did that I need history it is nothing but history it kind of rhyming not actually repeating on this day in 1997 at Macworld Expo in Boston Steve Jobs announces that Apple and Microsoft have signed a five-year alliance Bill Gates famously makes his seemingly ominous big brother appearance on the large presentation screen during the announcement of course at that time Microsoft was starting to get the wins of antitrust they thought the best thing to do is make sure that they weren't the last big software and PC manufacturer in the world now on this day they actually gave Apple 150 million which wasn't that much at the time Apple did have a billion dollars in the bank but what they couldn't do is develop any new products over the years that ended up being about you know closer to two billion by the time that 2005 rolled around and you can say that without Microsoft Apple would have never had all its big hits it never would have been able to find the funding it needed during the darkest times around the dot com blow up and of course Microsoft was had to look everywhere all the time once 2000 rolled around and as far as they were concerned they couldn't really spend any money on new projects without having the government down on so they might as well have stuck that money in in Apple and seeing them grow it was a fairly good investment over time and depending on who you listen to that 1.5 billion dollars through 2005 was cashed out from 2015 through 2018 for some 30 billion dollars so you never know where that money is going to actually come from Microsoft I think is pretty much out of all of its Apple shares I don't think that they have anything to speak about anymore in the snooze today Amazon's big owner Mr. Bezos and the CEO where's my chart here let's pop that up real quick has sold in the last couple of days actually August 1st and 2nd 750 million dollars worth of shares not so much though that you would think that that's kind of a ominous sign but remember he is and will be selling shares for both him and his wife and I would not be surprised at 750 million dollars a good hunk of that is not already headed to as soon to be or already ex-wife I do not know but down on some volume again a lot of these stocks with some very big overhang of antitrust issues I would not be surprised to see a similar path to Microsoft where these companies start investing in other companies to avoid antitrust if you're not currently using the Taz profile scanner when looking at setting up your trading opportunities then your arsenal is short a mighty weapon the Taz profile scanner is a standalone piece of software that instantly filters over 2500 global financial markets such as stocks ETFs commodity futures and 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be there tomorrow and we will go into options delta neutral that's where they try to reduce the amount of movement and the portfolio to almost nothing because that's where they can actually get their hands burnt fairly good with cheap options so they pretty much make sure that they hedge both sides of the bet but a fairly nice movement out here up 31 points now in the s&p cash someone corrected me during the break i'd seen the article where he'd sold 750 million shares i mean dollars already at amazon but uh yep there's a article out there saying that it's almost three billion dollars out there and of course many are saying that he's going to use that extra money to fund blue origin his space shot but at the same time i went back and looked at those articles and it does look like maybe that 750 million is headed to the ex-wife why he takes the rest of it to fund blue origin so i don't imagine these kind of things will come out here in a little bit is there a horrible short interest in the market no it really looks like the people in the market that were getting bearish had bought a lot of downside protection in the vixx but not so much in individual stocks and it may just be a new trend in the market to buy downside protection in the vixx and not short individual stocks but try to stay long when you can we'll keep an eye on that and see how it works out as we said after the bell tonight we've got some interesting earnings coming out one is disney wind resorts planet fitness gw pharmaceuticals the only legal cannabis company match group hurts global holdings although i think we already had a vis out already we'll look at that papa john's pizza what else do we have that's kind of it for the big names although now is what we're getting into are a lot of the small names i mean there's about 400 stocks reporting after the bell tonight i would say 350 of them you've never heard of before the other ones you may have heard of but or maybe untradeable maybe 20 of them 15 of them are something interesting so small cap tonight and tomorrow morning before the bell we get cvs health care cyber arc lumber liquidators a handful other ones wendy's international is that right am i on the wrong day yeah that'd be seven and a handful of others so we'll keep an eye on that earnings this morning and after the bell last night allergen not much movement on this one yeah i looked at the reports earlier this morning i can't remember anything about it so it doesn't seem that interesting just kind of coming back here to where the support has been at 160 bucks car which is of course is avis rent a car um spike down lower in the day not that horribly 31 dollars and 92 cents i kind of back to where it was the day before earnings no big deal the giant loser of all time uh is uh dean's food uh not a big cap stock by any stretch of the imagination but a huge downside move uh in the actual company off 29 percent as we speak 87 cents i didn't i couldn't remember that this company being in such a death throws from previous times but i mean this was a 21 in 65 cent stock uh two years ago a year and a half yeah two and a half years ago so it's been on a one-way trip since january 4th 2017 where this thing hit its eye at 21 dollars and 65 cents uh done nothing but sell off since then energizer holdings those battery folk come on give give come on i know you can do it nothing there let's redo this here and see okay got a good quote here uh another one that uh is take taking it with uh beating with the ugly stick today uh down uh to the low of 32 dollars and 81 cents actually blew through just about everything back to where is this gap here to to to february 3rd of 2016 everybody's in a losing position pretty much since back then uh and if i'm not mistaken buffett was big in this he may still be maybe i'll get a chance to check during the break but this may be one of his big losers i can't remember if he's already gotten out maybe somebody in the den remembers um but i remember him getting into this big time maybe this is why it's fallen like a souffle in a 1970s sitcom if you ever watched the brady bunch that was it uh ellen was always was it ellen was always cooking something and the kids were always slamming the doors and the souffle would fall well back to the giant gap higher and you're going to get that retest here probably fairly quick um maybe rechargeable batteries are just kind of doing away with uh selling a lot of d and c and a cells anymore uh but and maybe just led lights mean that you don't need to use so many batteries i don't know but it certainly looks like there is a trend uh oh is that uh duracell is what uh buffett has uh like i said i'll have to check on that i kind of vaguely remind and remember that he was in all those we'll find that out during the break international flavors another death throws buffett equals duracell okay uh to december 24th 122 87 and international flavors and fragrances blew through that today and uh this is quite the haircut you're back to this gap that goes back to march 21st uh this does i would have said looks like it's in a giant trading range except for the monster volume today that is blowing through everything let's see um looks like this would come back to 107 54 which is the january 6 2017 low okay and what else did you marry international again down just a little bit but it was in a downtrend already headed back to the gap of june 4th that had 1.8 million shares you already have 2.85 million shares uh but uh didn't hold the low so it's a little bit better mosaic company uh those potash companies and fertilizer companies um back to the may 29th low with a huge amount of volume this looks like it may hold that low we'll be back after this path of least resistance is david white's daily trading newsletter and if you're looking for active trading ideas then now is a perfect time for a 30 day free trial to this powerful daily trading advisory service david uses his years of 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of timing the trade charts today by visiting tfnn.com this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com and i did go back and look at it right there cell is buff and i couldn't remember which one they're blaming the the the uh that the weather hasn't been that bad that there haven't been enough tornadoes and uh hurricanes to drive battery sales and a little bit of what i said which is you know with uh rechargeable batteries people just aren't buying that much anymore in fact i bought a new flashlight and it's rechargeable with a usb connector on the back of it it's pretty much a throwaway i don't think i can replace the battery in it but uh if i went to a long drawn out thing but you know if it lasts four five years i'm probably going to be that money ahead on the rechargeable for not having to put a bunch of double a's in it or something so i could see that that would change something uh shake shack out after the bell last night fairly nice uh pop um back into this gap that goes back pretty much uh into the ipo time frame where's it at here come on there we go um actually not seventy dollars june 20th or july 20th 2018 seventy dollars and 12 cents uh but a huge spike and uh i don't know i we don't have one anywhere that i see but i do tend to watch a lot of tv shows and these guys have gotten a lot of free press especially for tv uh tv shows filmed in and around hollywood and and la and you know they a lot of times you sell the sizzle not the steak in this case it's the overpriced hamburger and uh deep some kind of fries with cheese or something on it maybe someone will call in and tell me that's been to a shake shack why this thing is worth this because i don't know maybe if i went there it would change but i'm unaware uh another uh stock out sanofi with information about uh their new drug but it really didn't do anything today uh take two again this was the one i talked about yesterday could have a huge spring back it was down yesterday on everybody blaming it that its games were uh making people go out and shoot people i play a couple of their games and so far i've only shot a few just kidding folks um no video games probably don't make people shoot anybody they were probably nuts already but certainly these games continue to do well nice spike to 12850 today it's up it's uptrend is intact a short time out there for me to sneeze um and you're off to new highs um let's look a little bit farther uh when you uh looking for all-time highs this looks like it's well on its way to the october 1st 2018 high that's 139.91 i think this pop right here is everything that you needed that you needed to see this go up let's turn this down a little bit and see if i can get something there um a little lighter energy uh so far but not that bad uh i think you've got a high probability of testing 139.91 uh the question is if we get into that or on september they come out with a new title that shows that they're going to drop another two or three billion dollars in sales um and that'd be it now as far as a value proposition um i find it kind of interesting some of the data i'm not a big player i know people play video games all the time but i've had a game for like two years and it keeps track of how many hours you actually play on it and i remember i paid about 50 bucks for the game it's right up my alley i love playing it uh and it told me that i played it for over 200 hours now and you got to think if you pay 50 bucks for a game get to play it for 200 hours you pay 12 bucks for a movie get to watch it for two and a half uh plus these are more interactive uh you can even buy additional expansion packs and play it longer i can kind of understand especially if the value proposition but not only that um just you know maybe the change in the way that movies have been put out actually probably helps video game companies there's a handful of tentpole movies in the summer and once those are over you generally get the release of the big tentpole games come the fall and in climate weather so it probably works out fairly well that there are fewer bigger movies and uh very few smaller movies anymore they either go to netflix or amazon or some of the other streaming services and i can imagine with disney coming on in fact let's take a look at disney uh pre earnings tonight we'll refuse to entry upon the flight uh why is that tsa officer uc puller refuse to entry upon the flight oh i've only shot a few okay i get um um well disney company back down into this gap uh just uh okay you gapped up on the 13th of june you did so on 18 million shares i think that was earnings too now it wasn't earnings something else and you're back into it with 10.7 million shares yesterday so not a bad test of that gap area going into earnings of course uh they're going to be pushing their streaming service this fall um they've got a lot of titles and it may be a great way to monetize some of that older stuff that they've had out there for a while but uh i don't know exactly how many people i guess if you have kids probably an instant buy isn't it i don't you know amazon you get amazon prime with your with your amazon subscription are ready so it's not a thing i you know the way that this is probably stacking up is that you'd keep amazon prime video and if you had netflix you might you know if you're going to cannibalize something i think Walt disney would be more than likely to cannibalize netflix more uh than amazon prime uh in xlf right net nflx excuse me i guess i'm glad that i pretty much fly private everywhere since i don't go that far uh did you do what do you've got okay netflix you did test the low blowout after earnings i'll talk more about this when we come back actually tested with what my team yeah not bad about half the volume yesterday we'll be back in a minute if you're in the cd market and looking for a secure investment the tiger 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newsletters page of tfnn.com what are you waiting for all of the tfnn newsletters are informative up-to-date affordable and must have for every trader looking to gain a competitive informational edge in today's markets tfnn newsletters cover every aspect of the markets to offer you the very latest in market news plus new subscribers get to test drive our newsletters risk-free for 30 days from all aspects of the markets including stocks bonds metals commodities and tech there's a newsletter to fit your needs exclusively from tfnn stay informed each day you trade and get that competitive edge that will help you stay ahead of the game visit our newsletters page by going to tfnn.com and click the newsletters button near the top of the page tfnn.com educating investors are china a shares hot or not if you trade china a shares now may be time to take a closer look trade chau or chad directions daily csi 300 china a share bull and bear ETFs china a shares in either direction visit direction investments.com today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact direction shares at 866-4767523 the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four-side fund services LLC don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv that's tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv for the latest to market information on netflix 17.7 million shares on the 22nd of july tested that with this 8.6 8.7 million shares yesterday so actually not as bad as i thought maybe that changes this fall i think you'd probably get back up in our 340 345 and that would be i don't think you could short the stock here but you got up 345 350 with light volume that's where you might want to take the next look at it again i don't think i'd want to be netflix seems to be a little bit odd man out with new streaming competition and of course lost subscribers already but i think that's got to do with many other factors utx united technologies nice reversal out here today almost railroad tracks if this continues on either call call the tweezer bottom or railroad track bottom you need a little bit higher clothes out on utx but doesn't look that bad got a question to look at bowing um they've finally gotten back down to the 330 area what 326 96 was yesterday's low volume was not all that exciting it wouldn't kind of blow out volume that you might think this goes back to a smaller gap on the 8th of january of this year so you've got a fairly decent time frame you've got four gaps down below all the way to 282 at this point the question is whether or not they can get the planes back in the air and why i understand the problem i'm not exactly sure what it takes to fix it to pass the faa scrutiny uh because it's a little bit of software and a bit of hardware and maybe even retrofitting some of the planes with new angle of attack indicators but maybe this is the end outsourcing software uh to uh far east uh asia software uh manufacturers instead of doing it here in the united states uh this may be one of the most expensive software blunders uh and hardware blunders because it's not a single issue of just software uh but a bit of hardware too in which one piece of hardware can fail and that ripples into the software it continues to have a fail so there were two failure modes on the same failure uh and i think that tells you everything you need to know but um there's people on youtube that have been tearing apart some of the older angle of attack indicators and they're not that sophisticated but of course to this point they were kind of like an auxiliary uh indicator for pilots most didn't spend that much time looking at them because they're very hard to read now that they're used as an integral part of the software to fly the plane uh maybe a variety of reasons this all ended being the fail well okay what else do we have oh wanted to look at uh to to a handful of other stocks we looked at bowing um you brought up ibm uh no surprise this thing isn't bouncing it does have fairly decent good support at this 140 dollar range still no word about their quantum computer effort that would be the product that is going to save them uh what they're doing now and uh their acquisition of red hat uh might let them go sideways for a while i just don't see the massive amount of business flowing to ibm because of red hat it's probably a decent buy um for them and certainly a good buyout for red hat uh but uh what can you say let's go back here and look at a few other ones kind of question coming in about the smh's um we certainly you know got right back to the gap up that goes to june 26 that had 7.3 million shares you did get into it with about 9 million shares you got a nice pop and a little bit higher today i suspect that that is going to continue uh if you were looking to be bearish i would certainly now wait let's look at uh retracement here 11548 is 50 percent retracement on the smh's i think we could easily get to that 11548 maybe even up to the 1739 and still remain bearish in the smh's i am not particularly bearish but if you are thinking about pulling the trigger i think we've seen the uh train that leave the station on that and now you're looking for a rather large bounce to reshort if you're feeling that way uh if we get into september i suspect there are a few things especially uh around memory that are going to continue to do well throughout the fall trade deal or not i think people are going to go on a couple of weeks maybe a month not much is going to actually change and uh people are going to do it question about what we talked about yesterday in the y in n uh and if there's anything else out here i mean you're up a little bit um there's too many there are a lot of voices out here saying that there is a systemic risk in the chinese market um i have no way to tell i'm not sure anybody else does either that's a black box of probably bad loans and uh in ron like deals in all of china and the only question is when does it blow up uh but i think as an outsider we have a hard problem seeing in but of course uh they continue to have egg on their face from the hong kong issues so don't see much changing there uh ibb another question coming in on that one it's up a buck um you didn't really i mean you got back to the gap up on june fourth had two and a half million shares got into a 2.9 million shares yesterday you're up on 1.6 million shares i still suspect that when this uh turns uh this may be the biggest uh trade for a sector in a long term but it may take all the way through the elections before that resolves itself so you may have another year sitting on the sidelines um what else do we have i had one that i was looking at fairly hard yesterday it did not pan out i didn't buy it either uh and that was docu i like the company a little more problematic about that only nice thing today is they're down on lighter volume uh but you are on a pullback basis from the thirty five dollar and six cent low on november 20th of 2018 up to the march 15th high in 2019 uh year back down to the that six one um yeah the six one eight at 44 44 so kind of close anyway we'll be back in a i'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life it's the most common trait that we tigers and tigers share if you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done which is how to 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O'Brien is back today and he'll be here for the three to five hour course for those earnings check in at four o'clock and find out what Disney and the rest that we talked about at the beginning of the show are doing after hours what else is happening here well we're up 30 what's called 32 points on the s&p cash volume me a 5.3 billion shares which is pretty good nothing compared to the slaughter on the way back down I just don't see a great deal out here that tells me to run for cover I do have a couple of long positions but other than that looking to pick things up on the cheap on any pullback I've got one other that I got my eye on before the end of the day so we'll take a look at that but I think you can be prudent and cautious and patient in buying this pullback we're probably going to see a little bit of downside tomorrow that's for going delta neutral into options for the expiration on the 16th by the end of the day though I suspect we're probably back up and without yet another huge headline news probably can drift up and maybe up all the way into that August 16th expiration but it seems like maybe we've kind of and just had a little bit too much too fast and burnt out a lot of the preparedness at least in the short term we'll see how the next week goes but in the short term I'm kind of bullish anything else happening out here I think that's it we looked at the dollar everything else kind of quiet probably will be until that next big headline in the meantime sell when you can not when you have to and we'll see you here tomorrow same bat channel same bat time