 The Tom O'Brien Show is produced every business day. Tom takes your phone calls toll-free at 1-877-927-6648. Internationally at 727-873-7618. Hey, Robert, how are you doing, man? Yeah, thank you for taking my call. I wanted to let you know that I've been a subscriber for a couple of years, just different members of your team. And I really enjoyed that. Really the reason I'm calling is to express my sincerest gratitude for you for providing that information yesterday on the small business grants. I'm a small business owner and primary bed break winner for my family. And if I can get that money, it's going to really mean a lot to my family. So thank you for taking the time to do that. No, well, listen, man. We appreciate you growling and proud with us. Now, Tom O'Brien. Welcome, folks. This is Tom O'Brien of TFNN. We are five days a week. We go seven hours a day. We go 24 hours a day on the internet at TFNN.com. Always remember, folks, whatever you think about, you bring about whatever you focus on grows. Hope everyone's having a great day, safe day. It's a TGIF, folks. Let's make it a great one. Create the perfect relationship between you and your body. Treat your body with all love, honor, gratitude, respect. When you're making a goal, so you're doing your body and accept yourself completely, you're learning to have the perfect relationship with anyone else you are with. Mug and wise, let's take a look at it out here. We have the Dow Industries up 22. NASDAQ's down 2 and 1 half. S&Ps are flat. Gold, gold contract, flat, $19.42. Silver down 6 cents, $23.17 an ounce. Light, sweet crude, up 54 cents, $87.41 a barrel. Notes and bonds, a 10-year note. Down two ticks, trade 109.29, the 30-year, up eight at 119.18, and king dollar. King dollar trading up 23 ticks, 105.081. The magic number, folks, is 104.699. We'll show you how this shakes out. The Euro at 106, the yen trading at 147, the British pound at 124, the one US dollar. iPhone number's 877. 9276648, give us a call, folks. I know it's going on in your world. In the world of the S&Ps, let's take a look at them. This is, you got a consolidation happening here. There's going to be a battle right up here. So what we did out here yesterday is this. This is how you look at this. We had sign of strength here on the 26th. You go up the S&P, this is 83 million. You come down yesterday, you reject it at 70, OK? Today, you can see what's happening. You have 39 million, you went up. So you're going against 70 now with 39. That's saying, kind of price, you got to 447, you're at 444. That's saying it's going to come right back down and try to test this area again. And you know, I'm sure most of you has heard Tim Wood yesterday. This is the whole area. This whole area right here is where all the ticks and trend are coming out. So the more that we keep testing this, we'll see if the ticks and trend come up. But this is the area where the battle lines are set up. We're going to take a look at the NDX100. Same type of set up inside the NDX. Do you have at the NDX? Take a look at this. Now, the intriguing thing about the NDX folks is this. The NDX is still showing that we're stronger than the spy, even with Apple getting smoked. That being said, what you had is this. You're going into 58 million, and we did 53, 52. You rejected lower price. Now you can see what's happening now. Now we're going into 42, and you only have 27. So we're probably only going to do about 33. So that's going to be a rejection. You can't hold price. As soon as that happens, you're going to go right back down. These are the battle lines that are set up. We go to the note and bond market, because they're all moving together. The cool thing here is that there's a method to the madness here. You go to the note and bond market. Pull up the tenure first, what you're going to see. You're going to see what we had done. Let's pull this across. Okay, so we were going, the last Wednesday and Thursday, you were going into 2.7 million, and we only did 1.4 and 1.2. Now that being said, it got to 1.10.10 today. Couldn't hold price, and the 1.10.10 was going into 1.5 million contracts, and you only did 9.48. So that's also saying it's going to retest that area. We go to gold. It's going to be the same setup. This is a true battle line. There's no two ways about it. We take a look at gold. There she is. Come on, give me that. There we go, okay. So you look at the gold contract. Let me get the volumes on here for you. We were going into 170,000 contracts. On Wednesday, we did 149. Yesterday, we did 117. Now today we did 132, but the 132 was going to 193. Now the gold's not as bad as the other ones. You can see there was expansion of volume, but you're still going to 193. So this isn't done either, and it's all right here. All right, and this dollar. Take a look at the dollar. I'll put this up intraday first. What you're going to see intraday is that the dollar, let me put a daily up first and show you the magic number here. The magic number is this swing point. It's been trying, trying, trying to stay over it. And that magic number is the 104 699. Now intraday, we did get below it, just Bailey, and just Bailey for seconds. Okay, so if you take a look at it, you're going to see what happened is that we got down there, that was at approximately 10.30 this morning, and then guess what? It says, see ya, don't want to be ya. So the bottom line is that the dollar's running the whole ball of wax. You know, if you have a lower dollar, we'll have a higher market. You get a higher dollar, a lower market's coming at us. That's the bottom line. And it's all correlated around the aspect. You can see what we did, whether it's the S&P, whether it's the bonds, whether it's gold. You know? Let's go to the oil market and see what's happening there. That might be trading on its own. We take a look at the oil. I want the active contract, CLA. Okay, so the oil contract, 261,000 contracts. The high there, 88.97. That's interesting, so we hit 88.95. Yeah, this is still one's higher price, man. This is still an ABC up, that's what it looks like. Stay right there, folks, we're coming right back. Our phone number is 877-927-6648. We have the dollar. The dollar's up 24, and as except one, it's a piece of flat. We're coming right back. Currencies, commodities, and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex Report. 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You know, came to where we came down with high volume first. You know, come off the high of what? 194 gets down to 171, does a counter-trend move up to, what's that, 190? Comes down hard, gaps down with higher volume. Today runs to 180, has 52 million shares going against 82. So, what this is doing is setting up a potential, another ABC down. If you take a look at this, I'll put this on a weekly for a second. What you also have is that at this level, Apple is now in the range that it has been for almost two and a half, three years. It went out of the range, now it's back in the range. And the bottom of this range, by the way, on Apple is 120. That's how that sets up. You're at 150, 120 is the bottom of the range. We'll see how this shakes out. So, that's gonna be, that's a big one, man. That's definitely a big one because of the fact that everyone owns Apple. Every fund owns Apple, all of the above. You know, Apple was the leader on the way up, charge, charge, charge. You know, it was amazing actually yesterday, you know, that we actually got a rejection of lower price even when Apple was, you know, down low. You know, as I said a little bit earlier, I think though that this is the area where the whole battle lines are taking place, right? You know, right at these, and this is the shallow retracement. So, you're gonna get a good understanding of how you take out the swing point. So, the swing point for all these ABC structures, well, on the spy, it's gonna be 70 million for the potential ABC down. And for the cues, it's going to be 52. And if you get that ABC down, what you'll see is that the next leg will just get you to the low of that consolidation at bottom, which is that 354. Now, this is the cool thing, right? So, we'll do a couple of different scenarios here. Let's picture that on Monday, Tuesday, you do take it out. ABC structures on the way down or on the way up, you got A to B straight line move, B to C is all over the place, C to D straight line move. Now, if you don't get a B to C all over the place, they're not as strong because what happens, they haven't built up enough cause. So, what tends to happen is that if we go straight right down, what you'll see is the volume will dry up dramatically because we're going at the 61 million. This is on the cues. If we mess around in here for a week or two weeks, then that could be more trouble. So, it's all about building cause, where it goes, meaning how long it can go. Because the longer you build cause, the more power the market gets on the way up or on the way down. Now, we had a question about the dollar, meaning the dollar hasn't even done a .382 retracement from the highs. Check this out. And this is where I might want to go because this is where it's gone on the last two uptrends. If you take a look at this, you're going to see it's right. It gave it up at the .382 from the high out here of 114 to the low. You can see that's the number. That's the next swing point also. The thing that is wild is that it's having a really tough time staying over this 104, 699. So, we'll see how that baby shakes out. But even a .382 retracement is a light retracement in a market, because I'm going to bring up the dollar again. Because in the bigger picture, the dollar's still on a downtrend. So, watch this. I mean, this just sounds hard to believe because the dollar's been going up so long. But when you look at this, let me bring this back, pull this this way. What you're going to see is that we come off the side of that 114. The first time you come down, you come down to the 104, no, the 100. You go back up to the 105. You come back down to the 99.50. And now we're dealing with, you get the 104, 699. And then it's going to be the monster number. Because the monster number, that's where that huge bar is. The bottom of that bar is 105, 321. The swing point is 105, 883. And that's just where it might want to go. And that'll be a big battle right there. Because you can see, in one month, that's when the dollar went from 113 to 106. So, the reason I'm taking some time with this is that the dollar's running everything. You can see it, it's so clear, it's the same. Because it has to do with, you're so picture, when the dollar goes down, you can see that bonds stay higher. So the bond market is trying to say, let's go look at the 30 year for a second. Because the 30 year kind of held today, which was interesting. So you pull up the 30 year, did 225,000. But see, that's not enough volume either. It just seemed that it held price. Yeah, it's not enough volume. Because you were going into 369,000, it did 220,000. Not held price, so it did better than a 10. So, if the bond market's gonna go up, that's saying that higher yield, I mean, higher price, lower yield, right? If you get higher price and lower yield, you're gonna have a lower dollar. That's how this thing's set up. You're also gonna have a higher gold, higher silver, higher market. So, we'll see what you're gonna shake out, man. That's the bottom line. Let's take a look at some of the higher volume equities that we have out here today. You got, Tesla is down at three bucks. You got, that's easier doing it this way. Let's go to the NDX first. Inside the NDX, you got Marriott up 2.8%. What is that? Global Foundry, okay, up 2.7. Warner Brothers up 2.5 and Gilead up 2.4. Taking away from it. Idex Pharmaceutical up 2.7. You got Lucid, the car company, up 2.7. Align technology off 2.6. Stay right there, folks, you're coming right back. Our phone number is 877-927-6648. We have the dial. Dow Industries right now up 13. Azix down two, S&P's off two, come right back. Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago, and the student has now become the master. 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Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. Welcome back folks to Dow. Dow Industries right now, down five, you get the NASDAQ of 12, SAPs are four and a half, and if you saw the NFL last night, folks, your Super Bowl champs, Kansas City just couldn't do it, 21-20, you know, Detroit Tigers, man, Detroit Lions rather, pretty amazing game. I mean, just really amazing. And they did it at Arrowhead Stadium, which is pretty amazing. So, you know, these teams are gonna be a great year. That's the bottom line, sure. And I love Mahomes. I mean, he's just an amazing player, there's no doubt. Goff, the Goff is an amazing player. You know, they had Kansas City, he didn't have Travis though. That's like not having your best player, you know? And they say he's gonna be back next week. That's gonna be pretty wild, because, you know, in between the game, they're saying he had no power on his knee yesterday. Like, okay, I'm gonna do this in a week, but they do that in the NFL, you know? But I mean, we'll see where it shakes out, but what a game, no doubt about that. Let's go inside the Dow Industries and take a look at the strength versus the weakness. So, point-wise, inside the Dow today, we have Microsoft putting 26 positive points, Amgen 25, Goldman 16, Salesforce 13, taking away from it. Boeing minus 33, United Health minus 29, Travelers minus seven, no big deal. Let's go to the home business. We'll go to Home Depot, see what this is lookin' like. So, Home Depot, put this on a weekly. This is lookin' pretty good, actually. This has been built in a base now, you know, for about a half a year. And you can kinda see, when we get to these tops, now this is, yeah, this is pretty cool. This is where you can see that it is hard to break through ice. And, you know, ice is set up at a price point of $343, yeah, $343. And you can see when it gapped down, see it gapped down with 45 million shares. The first time that we came up here, you came up with 29, failed on price. Next time you come up with 17, couldn't hold it, that brings you all the way back down to the 280 mark. Now, we just had, a few weeks ago, you came back up with 22, 20. 20 versus, no, 20 versus 25. So that's saying that this needs more cause, man, to get through that. Now, that's on the weekly. Let's see what happens on the monthly. On the monthly, you can see that you're going into, okay, so we're going into 103, the first time we came up, 77, so 25% less. Yeah, this doesn't have to build more cause to get through there. That's what it comes down to. Let's see if Lowe's is probably set up the same way. We take a look at Lowe's, put this first on the weekly. I can't see much on the weekly, put it on the monthly. Now, see, you know what's interesting here? Is that Lowe's is actually stronger than Home Depot. That would make sense. The reason being is that Lowe's is really the store for the personal fixer uppers, more so than the contractors. You know, that's just how the business runs. And you can see Lowe's already made it through, or it's up at the top of ICE. The top is 232.28, we're 231. Now, the volume's dropping off, but you can see, and that totally makes sense, because you can see the aspect of across the country, I can see the contractors pulling back versus the fixer uppers, you know? And we'll see how Lowe, that shakes out the future, but that's kind of how it's set up. Let's go to Toll Brothers and take a look at Toll Brothers. Put this on a monthly. This is at all time highs, man. This is something else. And you know, what you have here is that they're building a lot of homes, they have their own financing inside of, let me pull this up and see what else is in there. So this one signal I just brought up, I can bring them all up. So let's see, who's up the most this year? So you got percentage-wise Taylor Morrison, okay? So let's pull up Taylor Morrison. TMHC, okay. TMHC, even though it seems down, it's up to the most for the builders anyway, yeah. They get volume up at these highs and they're pulling back with late volume. That's still a sign, man, that they want higher price. You know, I was talking yesterday about the aspect of mortgages and how the mortgage brokers are working right now. And you know, you're not gonna get a mortgage at par. And par just means that, let's say the mortgages are going at 7%, you get it at 7% and you're not paying points. The other brokers now are basically charging, you know, probably most of them are pointing half to two points. And the reason for that is that, so picture how the mortgage business works. You and I go get a mortgage, the broker writes up the deal, they, the folks they're selling to is always Wall Street, Wall Street will basically say what the, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac will say what the rate is, okay, they'll buy the mortgage out. What ends up happening there is that they're putting points on because if the mortgage gets paid off too early, there are penalties that are associated even with the buying and selling of mortgages if they get paid off too quick. So what ends up happening is that they want those two points so they know they're gonna get something out of the mortgage. And it's actually, you know, as I said, yesterday was just the opposite of what I thought would be going on because of the fact that there's not a lot of mortgages being written. And also a supply-demand aspect is one thing, but the market is looking and Wall Street is looking that lower rates are coming at us and they think there's gonna be a huge amount of refinances in the future, you know. And that's what, you know, everyone hopes, right? You know, when you buy a house at 7%, you say, because when you do the numbers, you know, when you do the numbers, even at 7%, if the housing stock, because it's so tight, if it's even going up 5% a year, you're still better at buying the house than waiting three years because the fact that the matter is is that the house is gonna go up that much more, you know, and you're gonna pay more money but yeah, you're gonna get a lower rate but you're gonna get a lower rate on a higher dollar value. Stay right there folks, we'll come right back. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. 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So, no, the question I had is, UAW negotiations are coming up on the September 14th. Yes. They're on a hard line. What's your thoughts and what's your overall impact to the market relative to the auto industry size of impact? So, the battle lines are set up between the union, of course, and the company itself, which is basically the executive suite. I've always been a union person. My father was the general. Oh, you fostered and I got it. Yeah, he was the general chairman of the signalman, okay? And that's when the signalman folks, just check this out. So this was 1960. So the signalman basically had to walk the tracks then. That's when the signalman were only making $8,000 a year. 8,000, you heard that right. He got them up to 10,000. So, that was a big day in our house, right? That being said, the automakers themselves, I think the executive suites are out of their mind and they have been for a long time. So if you have the worker versus what these executives are making, Mary Bower, she's making $28 million. The guy from Floyd's making $20 million. It goes all the way down the line, man. Did you know what I'm saying? Yeah. You know, so. You're straight on. I mean, it's very interesting because transportation industry just signed up for a 40% labor increase, right? So very interesting to see if the UAW holds out for that as well. So I mean, I'm just interested as far as the disruption to the supply chain in North America, what will or what you're thought to will or will have because it might be impactful. Oh, it will be impactful. I mean, the thing that's wild, I wish I'd flag some of these shows like from two or three years ago because I remember spouting my mouth off about the aspect that inflation's coming and you're gonna see the unions get powerful again and you're gonna see this fight. And that's where we are, you know what I mean? So it is what it is. And you know, it's like who has built America? It certainly isn't the executive suite. It's the workers, you know. No, fair, fair, fair point. And I supported it 100% because again, at the end of the day, it's the people that matter. Yeah, no, but I get it in the context of disruption too. I mean, you know, because once it's disrupted, a lot of people are gonna lose paychecks. I get all that too, do you know what I'm saying? You know, things change. Now, in the automotive business, it gets really wild because of the fact that, you know, if you really get into it, it's like, okay, GM shouldn't even be around. We already saved GM. The mind blow I hear that no one talks about is that, okay, everyone blew their brains out. GM got in the financing business. They went bankrupt. You know, you and I bailed them out without even knowing we bailed them out. They stopped again and nothing changes. So, you know. I mean, at least Cracer paid back their loan to the government. GM never had. Right. GM paid their loan. That's pretty intense. I didn't know that. That's pretty intense. Yeah. And you know, when you look at the numbers, I mean, I'm looking at the numbers right now. GM did 137 billion in 2019. This year they're doing 173 billion. If we look at Ford, they did Ford's in trouble. Okay, Ford did 143 billion in 2019. They're doing 164 this year. You know? Yeah. So, you know, it's gonna be a battle, man. And the battle's not over here, man. And you know, we'll see where the whole thing shakes out. But I think once you saw that, the, you know, Sean O'Brien from Local 25, when he broke, you know, the transportation deal and Local 25 is in Boston and South Boston, Somerville, the whole ball, I'm very familiar with them. That started the ball, man. It's like, okay. Right. The rest of them, they're not gonna go because they know, picture this, they know they run the goods, man, for the good stop. Well, guess what? Everything stops. You know? Right. And so, the balances always go different. You know, they go back and forth. Now they take years and years because what I saw both sides, you know, my father was there, the workers were getting screwed. By the time I was like, so I was 10 then, by the time I was 30, I couldn't stand some of these guys, even in Local 25, because I knew they were ripping everyone off because it had tipped the other way. And that was, you know what I mean? That was kind of strange to me personally. And then, you know, guess what? Another 20 years later, they were getting screwed. And so it tipped the other way because now I'm in the finance business and I really understand, I mean, anyone that's in the stock market really understands like, how do these CEOs go from making, you know, let's say 10 times what a worker makes to like 100, 200 times? Like, you know, so people, you know, you get the gist. I mean, that's always gonna be the battle. Yeah, no, back in 09, you know, when the UAW made all their concessions, right? They have never clawed anything back, unfortunately, and inflation's upon us. And they're asking for a fair wage, for a fair labor. So it'll be very interesting to see, but it coming September 14th, and the executive leadership of the UAW has drawn a hard line in the sand saying, we're gonna stop. So it'll be very interesting to see. I just was looking to see what your overall impact was to the market on that decision. No, I'm with you. And you can see, you know, this turns into a financial and a political deal because right now folks, the UAW won't endorse Biden, which normally that happens, okay? They normally have a democratic deal because they know that that's the only card that they actually have left is for the administration to start leaning on the car companies, right? I mean, so they're all playing hardball, but we know that if there is a strike, it's a problem for all of us. That's the answer to your question. That's what it comes down to. I agree. Yeah, yeah. I unfortunately, and as the Sean Fain, the UAW president, local president, he keeps throwing all the contracts in the garbage. It's a very interesting conversation. So just seeing what people are thinking. You talk about shocks in the water, huh, man? Yeah. It's heavy. It's about as heavy as you can get, man. It really is. It's like, wow. There's a lot of capital at stake in the world. There is. There is. There's no doubt about it. And what ends up happening is that there's so many hidden places for profit. There's so many hidden places that, you know, you got the jets that they have. I mean, this is when they start digging into it. It's like, oh, really? Okay. They tell me it's this one, it's this, and it's this one, it's this, you know? So the longer that it goes, most times they find out more in the aspect of, okay, we're spending even more, wasting even more. But we know that the strikes are no good for the country. That's the other side of it. There's no doubt about that. Yeah. Adam, you have a great one and a safe one, man. All right, be safe. Okay, thank you. Thank you for all of you. Dow, Dow Industries right now up 39. The Nasdaq's down free. S&Ps are flat. Stay right there, folks. Come right back. Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? Introducing Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter, Market Insights, your key to successful active trading. Tom O'Brien, renowned for his expertise in the financial markets, has designed Market Insights to be your daily guide to profitable trades. Tom publishes his daily Market Insights newsletter every market day before the market open, along with updates when warranted. Stay ahead of the game with Tom's real-time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox. 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Dow investors right now, up 39, you get the nanoseck down one, S&Ps are flat, and bottom line is that just get over to this US dollar, man, because we're gonna close out the week at 105.027. So let's bring this up, put this on a weekly, and see what we look like. We know we're over the swing, that's the bottom line. The magic 104.699. Take this, so see this is interesting because when you do it on a weekly, you can see that it looks like we're a lot further over than the daily. I mean, we're only over it by, what, three by 400 ticks, which is about a half a penny, but when you do look at that bar versus this bar, it's like, you know what, man, this next bar is gonna be game, which is gonna be the 105, what? That's gonna, that really is the top of the range, and that's the top of the range going back to 2022, of May of 2022, that's how that shakes out. And the bottom right there, what is that again? 106, so 106201. Now, that's almost like a full point. We'll see where this shakes up because if we go up there, you're gonna see a lower market. If we fail at this point, you're gonna see a higher market. It's that cut-and-ride, that's what it comes down to, because everything's priced in dollars. They're all trading, oh, I know, there was another question that the correlation between gold and the dollar hasn't been there. But that's a positive correlation if you're into gold because gold, I've said this in the gold report, gold should be a lot lower, man, you know? What has happened is that the gold contract has not got smoked as much as I think it should have with the dollar at these all-time highs. So that's a positive divergence for gold. Always remember, folks, the bank and Clio hideout, the bull can run you over and thank God, there's always another trade. Health, happiness, and prosperity. Have a great weekend, folks. Have a safe weekend. Come back in nine o'clock, Monday morning, Tommy will be back sometime Wednesday or Thursday. Have a great weekend, folks, and a safe one. Real, look at him, folks.