 The following is a presentation of TFNN. Trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento. All now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, Larry Pezzavento. Okay, looking good, Billy Ray, feeling good, Louis. We got to clear something up here today, folks. There's trouble in River City. You got to be really careful about the news. That's everything. There was a report yesterday in Florida. Woman stops 12-foot alligator with a .22 caliber pistol. Well, if you go and look between the lines, what's happening is they're walking her and her husband are walking along a path, out pops a very hungry 12-foot alligator and starts charging him. And as she's fumbling, she inadvertently fires and hits her husband in the knee, and she takes off. The law didn't work out too well for the husband, so just be careful about the news when you read it. It's not always what you think it is. Let's move on to the German Dax. By the way, something from my childhood in Indiana, very, very important, but it doesn't really apply very much anymore because back in those days, the liquor stores were always closed on a holiday, so it was important to have a good 4th of July. Make sure you buy a 5th on the 3rd. All right, that's enough. We'll talk at least we don't have to listen to Norman today. That's a good thing. Let's take a look here at the German Dax, folks. We had a pretty good run-up. It's completed the ABCD, but you'll notice the FTSE has certainly completed and it's gapped up, and it's heading towards the... I think we probably already made it by this morning because this is a four-hour chart, and it only had another 70 points to go to complete the... It's already completed the big ABCD. It might complete the butterfly pattern there also. So that's it. Okay, move on to a couple other things, and then I'll get to what I think is the most important thing. Let's move on. We have to give our hats off to our Mr. Goodfriend, and Mr. Rensky yesterday, and Mr. Zee in the room. They were buying the silver and the gold. You can see the ABCD pattern in the gold exactly at the time that Norman had thought it was going to be, and he had that key signal in silver yesterday, so that worked out. If you bought that silver, put your stop at, say, $14.30, protect at least a $300 profit, so you don't lose anything on that. That's the way I would do it, because we're going to start seeing low volume today, closed tomorrow, and then Friday will be very, very low. Believe me, those boys don't like to come in from the Hamptons without something really dramatic happening. Now, we hear lots of news that they're getting ready to do something in Iran. That's certainly possible, that we don't know if that's going to be the case or not, but the markets are still acting pretty good, so we'll see. Now, we made new highs in notes and bonds, folks. That's the next time we did that. Let's take a look at what happened in the open interest yesterday. Not that this means any good, because as Sir John Simpleson said, it's different this time. You can see the open interest in the 10-year notes dropped by 62,000, roughly, and in 43,000 in the two-year notes. That is more than 7.2 million of all the open interest. Folks, that's a lot. Those are the biggest contracts that we trade, but that's short covering. I know I'm wrong now, but eventually, when all the shorts are covered, boys and girls, it's over. I mean, it really is. Let's just look at this chart here. You can see where we are. We hit 2811, I believe, last night, which is a slightly higher than the other high, which was at 2819, I believe, and that was mainly due because of the rumor about bringing Biden back from wherever he was and all the other stuff, saying that it looks like there's going to be an armed conflict somewhere, so whether that's going to be the case or not, I really don't know. I can remember one story. This was back in 1990. It was 1991, and I was in Pismo Beach and I was getting gas real early in the morning, like at four o'clock. I was heading up to the trading room and there was a car. I had a little sports car, and the guy had the same kind of sports car I did, and as I walked by, I looked in the back and there was a full uniform of a bird colonel in the Air Force, and so I went in and I started chatting with him and he said, well, I said, where are you going? He said, my unit's been called up, and I said, care to share with me where you're going? I said, I'm a commodity trader, and he said, I wouldn't be short any oil, and believe me, oil was at 42, and it went to 11. I remember that. Never got any information, but that's neither here nor there. We had a nice run in gold yesterday. As you can see, we got up to that 1435 level. The old high was 1441. We've already dropped $17 from that level. Silver rallied yesterday to be up well over $2,100 a contract and gave half of that back. That's why I'm saying, put your stop so you protect some type of a profit because boys and girls, the old Chinese curse, we do live in interesting times, and not only that, remember we're going to have thinner markets in here starting today, close tomorrow, and then again on Friday, Friday especially, because I'm going to be working, one of the few people that I know is going to be working. Everybody's taking that four-day holiday. Remember, that liquidity is very, very important, and you can see huge swings, especially in markets like silver. If silver closes near the low end of the range today, and I'm still in a profit, I'm going to take it out. I just don't want to take that risk because when you come in the night of the fourth, markets will be trading, of course, but in fact, they'll be trading all day the fourth. I believe it's all day the fourth because Europe is not closed, and certainly Hong Kong isn't, with all the people riding over there, and that's a pretty tough gig to miss that one. One of the things we want to mention to you is the fact that the Treasury bonds did make a new hype, and only by a couple of ticks, open interest also dropped in that one. I know it's hard to believe that these things work this way, but they really do. It's not always... I mean, I've been doing this for a very, very long time, and I certainly can't ever remember where you're going to get a bull market with dropping open interest. The players are leaving, folks. That's the bottom line. I don't know when it's going to end, and of course, nobody else does either, but that's what we're looking at. New highs in the S&P, which is a new highs in the NASDAQ, which is good. The open interest in the S&P has gone higher and hasn't changed in the NASDAQ or the Treasury... NASDAQ... Let me see. Let's get this right, Larry. The S&P open interest was good. Nothing happened in the NASDAQ and nothing happened in the Dow, so those are the key things to look at. The other one is this U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar is very, very critical in here. Euro can't get moving to the upside after making that major support down there at 112.60, so that's another one that's looking interesting. Be careful. When we get back from this next break, I'd like to show you something on Bitcoin that's very, very interesting. I think you might like this, but maybe you won't like it. I don't know. No matter whether you do or not, I'm going to report on it, so that's the way it is. Okay, let me see. We have any callers coming in yet? Oh my gosh, Al's telling me the board is lit up like a Christmas tree, so we've got a break. 877-927-6648. The TAS Profile Scanner is the most revolutionary piece of trading software that you will ever try. Wouldn't you like to approach the markets with confidence? As you begin your trading day, it's likely that you'll be faced with lots of decisions. In order to make the best decision, the first thing you'll need will help you minimize your risks. Whether we're in a bull or bear market, a good strategy is to have the tools needed to help you scan and analyze the markets before you trade. The TAS Profile Scanner instantly scans and filters over 2,500 global financial markets, such as stocks, ETFs, commodity futures, and forex. Headed by Steve Dahl, president of TAS Market Profile, the TAS Profile Scanner understands that in today's technological world, the use of top-flight software applications, automated trading algorithms, and technical analysis expertise is essential to successful trading in today's market. Whether you're looking at the trade matrix, the ETF heat grid, the market breadth, the landscape charts, or the many other features of the TAS Profile Scanner, this is a piece of software that will revolutionize how you look at the markets and set up your trades. The team at TAS has even put together a 12-part video series to walk you through every aspect of the TAS Profile Scanner, which you can find directly on the TAS Order page at TFNN.com. Sign up now for only $197 a month with a risk-free 30-day trial so you have nothing to lose and everything to gain. See for yourself how you can harness the full power of the TAS Profile Scanner by visiting the front page of TFNN.com today, and you'll find the TAS Profile Scanner under the Services section. Remember, with a 30-day money-back guarantee, you have nothing to lose. Don't let another day pass you by without trying out this amazing piece of software that will revolutionize how you look at the market and how you place trades. Sign up today. TFNN has launched our brand-new website. You can still visit us at the same TFNN.com URL, but when you do, you'll see a new and improved homepage with a much simpler navigation, whether you're watching Tiger TV live in high-definition, or if you want to learn more about the TAS Profile Scanner, or if you want to learn more about the TAS Profile Scanner, or if you want to learn more about the TAS Profile Scanner, or if you want to learn more about the TAS Profile Scanner, or if you want to learn better about the TAS Profile Scanner, or if you want to learn an older navigation, whether you're watching Tiger TV live in high-definition or just accessing your newsletter subscriptions, we even have new pricing in 6 months and yearly options. Check out the new TFNN.com now Okay we're back folks and one of the things that I would like to discuss with you this morning is the Euro because we've got this holiday coming in and we're at such a critical level here in the Euro. If you notice this is the daily chart that we got up to that 114-10 level that was very important because you can see by the thunderbolt pattern there that formed a guardly right at that high which was also a 382 retracement from the high way back in September. This means that it should be bearish here for the Euro because it's completed another ABCD pattern. That's only the second one we've had since September of last year. You'll notice the one between November and January that was another ABCD right at a 61 percent retracement. So just by looking at the definition of the trend if you have lower tops and lower bottoms which we do you're in a downtrend. Now you'll notice here that the correction that we made yesterday around that 112.75 has held. We're only trading at roughly roughly 113 this morning. So if we start going below 112.50 folks this is going to be a pretty nasty market to the downside the way it looks to me. Now maybe it's because people don't want to invest in anything except our instruments like notes and bonds because you've gotten negative interest rates all across Europe. And now you have Christine Lagarde from the IMF. And so that's going to be interesting to see how that all works out. But we'll have to wait and see. I really believe folks the flying will end out there. The one that is going to be the real one that hurts everybody is will be looking please have time between callers. Yes. You know Tucker I would like to do that and what we'll do is Tucker we're going to squeeze you in only because you're such a nice guy. So let's do the crude oil right now for Mr. Tucker. And what we need to do is we need to do the natural gas. And if anything is more important than natural gas I don't really know. Let's take a look here at the crude oil for Tucker. You'll notice here this is where we were Sunday night. We got up to 60 30. That was the exact Fibonacci retracement that little blue line. We're now down here trading at 56 and change. That tells us that this is a major top that we hit. And it's a lower top from the one in October the one in April and then the one we had yesterday or day before yesterday. That tells you that that's pretty much a major top in here. Now it wouldn't be good to talk about crude oil unless you also talked about the heating oil. Now look at heating oil. This is even this is even more bearish because as you see the heating oil contract you'll notice that we hit this thing last Thursday and excuse me last Friday and it rolled over. So that's a that's of another berry sign. We dropped quite a bit in that both heating oil and in the and seasonally this is not a good time for heating oil. You know I know it does some things for air conditioning but heating oil rocks and rolls in the fall. So I would be looking for more downside action in both the crude oil and the heating oil. It doesn't make any difference what's going on over in Austria with the with the folks with the Arab Spring trying to manipulate oil prices like they usually do. There's nothing you do with that. It has to do with those cycles that are out there. And I think those are the ones that seem to be very very important. That's what it looks like to me. So let's keep an eye on that. Very very important. Any other questions that we might have by the way the coffee is still backed off a little bit. It's still looking very good after we hit that target. Let's put that. I think we still have that coffee don't we. Yes we do. Gotta put the one hand up for Ruby because this has been a beauty here. We made that target up there at the 114. Hit it spot on folks. I mean ABCD you can't make this stuff up. Then we had that shooting star candle at the intermediate reversed about a nickel. We've come down a little bit more but it's still holding very very closely to that level. The next support level and this is this is really cool folks. So pay well don't pay attention if you don't want to look at the hide that we made on June the 3rd. If you would just draw a line across there to that 105 level you see that's going to be the really key support in the crude oil or in the coffee at that time the cup of Joe. So that's going to be 105 50. Then if you really want to get creative is go down to the low in April and draw the line from the low in April to the high we made this week and then and then connect what the 30 38.2 percent retracement is by the Bing by the boom 105 50. So if you want to buy the coffee 105 50 well of course we'll check in with Ruby of course to make sure that that's a good thing to do but that's it. Okay let's move on here to the next thing that someone's asked me about and that was the Japanese yen. Let's get it up here because we came down and made our objective here last night. I haven't updated this yet folks because I was running a little behind tonight and with the size of my behind you have to be a little quicker. We did get down to that 78 percent level folks at 106 and change. This is very very important here because if we don't hold these lows today the Japanese yen look out that yen is going to weaken up and that's not going to help the rest of that US dollar crowd either. So that means it's going to be pretty interesting to to see if it's going to be following that or not. We don't know for sure. Oh I know one thing someone's asked me and I didn't correct it. Let me get the Canadian dollar up here folks because we had a question on that Canadian dollar and I wanted to make sure that I did it right. Let's just get it because we were holding that level. Yeah this Canadian dollar is still at this double bottom level folks. I don't know if it's going to hold or not. You know we've been here now for one two three four days so it's going to be interesting to see whether this Canadian dollar you that could hold the slow. This is why that Euro is so important folks because these are all connected. Those those five major cross rates you got to you start with the you got the Euro versus a dollar then you have the excuse me the yen then you have the pound then you have the Canadian dollar then you have the Australian dollar. You got all those lined up in there and they're all telling you something big is getting ready to happen. Now you completed the ABCD in the Canadian dollar and then you had a little three day rally and it went nowhere. This is not a bullish sign folks. This means that that the dollar could be losing to the Canadian dollar because this chart is really it's the it's the US dollar versus Canadian dollar. It's actually reversed so that means if the Canadian goes from 130 you know to 120 that means it takes less to buy the US goods. So anyway pay attention to that. This is another interesting one that hasn't moved yet. These things are so tied together that it's amazing and here we are coming into a well yesterday was the new moon and the solar eclipse so that that again will also be you know relatively important. Someone asked a question about the S&P. I don't know. I mean you know we were short the S&P had a really nice move to the downside turned around once we got above the 71 level for the second time yesterday that pretty much told us that you know is probably going to be not the right thing to do. Let's just put this up here and show you where that support held yesterday a day before yesterday because we talked about it here. You'll notice there's that same line there where that big gap was when we were right in to fill the gap and the way she went started to go higher. So let's keep an eye on that. That's going to be an important one to look at. I wanted to show that intraday chart. I think this is it. Yeah here we go. Here's the intraday chart from last night on the E-mini S&P. The chicken in his pot the eagle has landed. Okay let's move up here. We'll be right back folks 877-927-6648. Larry Pezzavento has just started his brand new service Fibonacci 24-7 and he's already delivering content to his subscribers on a daily basis when the markets opened and even on weekends. Each Monday you'll receive Larry's written report that provides detailed commentary and a summary on the charts and videos that Larry sends out and throughout the week when warranted Larry will send out via charts or videos or both the key markets that he is watching during the day. This will be up to the date active trading information that will help you in your daily trading. In Larry's first week alone he sent out 25 charts, six videos and a full report to his subscribers in just one week. If you're a technical trader that uses patterns and retracements to trade then Larry service Fibonacci 24-7 is something that you must try. Right now new subscribers can get a full 30-day money back guarantee. With nothing to risk sign up now to Larry Pezzavento's Fibonacci 24-7 by visiting the front page of TFNN.com under trading newsletters. The path of least resistance is David White's daily trading newsletter and if you're looking for active trading ideas then now is a perfect time for a 30-day free trial to this powerful daily trading advisory service. David uses his years of trading experience to offer his subscribers his trading ideas each morning in his path of least resistance newsletter. Using a combination of equity trades along with options, David keeps his subscribers up to date with all pertinent market information with intraday afternoon updates when warranted. Don't miss out on this great chance to get a 30-day free trial to David's daily newsletter, the path of least resistance with no obligation to pay anything. David has been delivering solid recommendations for his subscribers recently and if you'd like to see the type of newsletter he delivers every morning then visit the front page of TFNN and you'll find the path of least resistance under trading newsletters. For all the details and to start your 30-day free trial today log on to TFNN.com now. TFNN is excited about our new software charting program the Art of Timing the Trade Chart. In collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best-selling book The Art of Timing the Trade, your ultimate trading mastery system, David White has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology. Using this first-of-its-kind program the Art of Timing the Trade Chart allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups including Gartley, ABC's Butterflies and much more. The Art of Timing the Trade Chart is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks or even months searching to find and right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month. We are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money-back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of the Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting TFNN.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Hi folks we're back and we have a caller on the line. John are you there? Thanks for taking the call. Thank you Mr. Z from The Room is with us today folks. What are you looking at John? So first I have to ask you if as you pointed out a wife is shooting her husband in Florida telling authorities that she was really aiming at an alligator. If that's going on in Florida what is happening out there in your neck of the woods the formerly Wild West? John I'm not really sure but all I do know is you know I'm 72 miles from Nogales Mexico and we play cards in a tournament every week and we have several Border Patrol guys at play and they say they've never seen it like this. All the people that are down there crossing are not from Mexico they're from San Salvador and Nicaragua and places like that. So you know I don't know how they got there but that's that's what they say and they say they it's it's quite violent so they have to be really really careful these days which is sort of sad but you hear things in the news you don't know whether it's true or not but that's beyond my pay grade cowboy so what can I help you with? Yeah that's interesting okay wanted to ask you a couple of things. Might first ask a question on the the bonds and the t-notes and as you pointed out we went to higher highs last night we've turned down a bit I wanted to ask now that that September bond futures has made multiple lows down at 154 and a half and highs up here 156 and a half if we sell off now in the next day week or several weeks and if we break 154 and a half I'm wondering if you could put up the the two hour or four hour bar chart of yours and and share with us what you'd be looking at for spots that you'd be looking to book gains on shorts if that sort of thing occurred. Well I wouldn't be looking to book shorts and this thing till it got to about 140 John I mean I'm really bearish I don't know why people think that these things are going to go up forever but they are going up now but they're going up with you know dropping interest rates John and you and I have been in this business for probably combined total of a hundred years I would think it'd be pretty close wouldn't it? I mean you've been in 35 I've been in 55 or 60 that's about how many years you've been in the business 35 nails at Larry okay there you go and so it's pretty 90 some years I've you know and when it when open interest drops and prices go higher that's short covering and when the short stop covering there's going to be a vacuum in there and it's you know John everybody's telling us that you know we're going to have zero interest rates I mean you got guys like really smart rich guys Ray Dalio and and Paul Tudor Jones and Peter Drucker Miller and Jimmy Rogers they're all saying this but you know I must be there I must be the the the dullest knife in the drawer buddy because I don't see it if this was really going crazy and people were buying these bonds and notes and into open interest wasn't dropping I wouldn't even think of being short this stuff remember I was short at 155 I think 20 and I got out of that I stopped out of that 156 yesterday on that and all we did is we went back and made a higher high from the 19th by wow a whopping total of five ticks in a treasury bond contract give me a break that's not big buying I'm looking at your uh your uh hourly bar chart uh placed in Tigard TV so thanks on that so here's a very specific question 154 and a half I see multiple lows going back to the 21st of June say we break that and uh for what it's worth I I shorted earlier this morning so I am short but if that works and if we break those levels uh as a trader uh help me with what you'd be looking at to say hey here's a spot I want to book a game and I'm asking this question just be prepared to be prepared for that scenario you know whether it occurs or not well if you're short here and you and you and you you think you well you've got a profit in it right now so your first thing to look for uh in the bonds is the bonds usually have a 22 ticks from the high so we went down we went to 156 25 that takes you to 156 0 3 and if you look at 156 0 3 just go back to see what the high was back on the 25th you know which was uh 25th of June you'd be looking at they that exact high and that would be almost a 382 retracement from the low back on uh July the first so that's the number 152 156 uh 0 5 so I would be watching that 0 506 because that's down 22 ticks and uh that that would be enough if you start accelerating below that then that's different because if you get below if you drop a full handle from here uh after just making a double top up here uh the people that bought it up there are going to say and believe me that's not new buying again you're going to see open interest drop again tonight I mean it's every day John I mean I can understand it you know a day or two here and there but every day the open interest is dropping you know I'm the only guy on this on a soapbox talking about this and I must have something wrong but uh you know like Yogi Berra said I got to dance with the girl I took to the dance and that's what I'm doing so we'll see and I don't have a position in bonds uh other than a very small short that I put on last night after we made a new high I resold it when it went below 156 16 and it's only 156 12 now so that's what I'm looking at got you very good uh I want to turn uh turn the tables on you and ask about gold and now the uh the gold futures are 1416 given up just a a lot of that uh rally that occurred last night uh so you know I guess I won't be surprised if we go back below 1400 again but um but uh wanted to ask you this if we bought them out here today uh or in the coming days but then eventually in coming days press above that 1443 high uh if that occurs can you just um talk out the uh the um the patterns or the price targeting that you'd be using to identify where you'd want to book games if we get over 1443 we get about 1443 the next level is 150 is 1510 and once we get above 1510 John they're going to be sniffing at the door at 1932 which was a high back in 2011 because this thing could really get going here uh if silver would ever pick up and I don't know if it ever will or not because uh you know it's a much smaller market it's one sixth the size of the gold market so it's really sort of insignificant but uh if that would happen that would start to bring some players in the silver we're not seeing any open interest increases in silver goes up one day down the next to me just a few hundred contracts each day but with the gold you've got players you've got thousands you've pointed it out in the den many times that you know in these breaks you know you'll have big volume and then all of a sudden the market reverses and goes back up and it tells you the bulls are in control which they certainly are John we had a $28 move in gold yesterday off that bottom you know that's a lot of money you know silver yeah I'll just share this with you I was uh in front of the screens went at nine o'clock New York time when gold was making its high last night at 1441 and uh volume was actually kind of light we got a path you bill stay with us till after the break could you please sure thing you bet if you were in the cd market and looking for a secure investment the tiger first mortgage program may work for you the security for these first mortgages are building lots in the tax opportunity zone in st. Petersburg Florida the tax act of 2018 set up tax free zones across the country where you can build and hold for 10 years and pay no tax on the profits which makes these lots valuable the investment is anywhere from 30 000 to 75 000 the interest paid is 7% yearly paid on a monthly basis according to bankrate.com the best rate for a four-year cd in the country as of february 20th is 3.1 a $50,000 investment at a normal four-year cd rate of 3.1% would give you income of 1550 per year or 6200 over the four-year period that same $50,000 investment in the tiger first mortgage program would give you 3500 per year or 14 000 over the four years what should you prefer 6200 or 14 000 of interest on your investment if you'd like more information about the tiger first mortgage program you can call me at 877 518-9190 that's 877-518-9190 it's amazing to think that Tom O'Brien started his weekly gold report 17 years ago with the first issue published April 7th 2002 when gold was trading at under $300 per ounce gold peaked at more than $1,900 in 2011 and after spending many years consolidating at lower prices gold may be poised for its next big run Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the xau hui gdx the dollar bonds south african rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations as of april 1st of this year the gold report currently has eight active positions with an average unrealized profit of almost 8 percent for each open trade new subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk for all the details and to start your gold report subscription today visit the front page of tf9.com don't let gold's next big run pass you by sign up today will the smp 500 continue to climb for bold trades on us large cap stocks in either direction trade spxl spu u or spxs directions daily smp 500 bull and bear leveraged etfs direction leveraged etfs an investor should carefully consider a fund's investment objective risks charges and expenses before investing a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus call 8664767523 or visit direction investments dot com a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four side fund services llc the bull bear binary option hour next on tfnn folks and we're talking with mr z from the tfnn tiger dan john are you still there okay and i believe we were chatting about the uh treasury bonds is that correct yeah we were the idea i was just going to share uh that i made note of last night at nine o'clock when the contract made its 1441 high it was just fascinating the rally that took place seven eight o'clock was on just modest volume and it kind of makes sense you know uh asia hasn't fully kicked in and night hours are often kind of low volume anyway but then at nine o'clock there was a uh a ten minute uh a ten minute time window one bar where there was just a flurry of buying met with big selling right there 1441 i think 10 000 contracts were unloaded up there so somebody somebody uh uh shorted uh and somebody bought the highs and that's right where you reversed so that was uh i thought that was kind of fascinating yes that's uh that and especially in a market that jumps around like old you know it moves a thousand dollars in a heartbeat nowadays which is good for trading but uh for investors it's a little nerve wracking i think uh john uh what you're feeling on the corn market in here we've had a really monster rally of about 12 cents uh a bushel here after breaking uh you know just about 65 cents a bushel what you're feeling in here yeah i bought it down there against that gap back i think it was um was it uh the day after memorial day weekend we had a gap higher i think that was the date but there was a gap at 4 20 interestingly enough on monday uh monday evening the the price went down and tested that within half a penny sure that was just a sign for me that that that was a uh a low risk buy whether the trade worked or not of course now the trade is working and uh as people reading what i've posted in the tigers den the past couple of days i just have this nagging suspicion that the numbers put out by usda last friday on acreage uh could have been faulty um so um so frankly uh i i don't know where it's going to go but i wouldn't be surprised if if the actual uh crop size is smaller than priced in right now with higher prices coming in the next third day so so i guess we'll just have to see yes i'm only pointed that out to me that there was a strong relationship between 1993 when we had a late planning and the same type of situation but this year it's even worse because they didn't get much of the corn crop in in certain areas of india and illinois and iowa but it's amazing how the corn went right down to that gap at 4 20 and i had an order setting at 4 20 john he got to 4 20 in a quarter and i had fallen asleep so i i did by the time i had uh i had woken up it was already six cents higher so i i well i wouldn't have bought it six cents higher anyway but i got missed that one again so lately the bus to stop is uh they're asking for extra quarter so i'm going to have to get in in my pocket and risk a little more yeah that that happens sometimes um one last question for you ahead of the holidays um of course we most of us have got uh friends and family activities uh uh going on here but um just i point this out uh gold silver futures oil natural gas the bonds even and the currencies they are virtually open uh regular hours through the end of the week with the exception of tomorrow afternoon and the fact that those markets remain open as they are going to be uh how does that impact what you do as a trader either holding open positions or closing them out well john i really don't i don't well i don't have any really big positions on right now because uh uh you know well i have silver that's the only thing that i that i really have on uh you know right now i got stopped out of bonds about a week ago and i haven't really re-entered that so that's about the only thing that i'm looking at right now but what i will do is i will go back and look at uh some of these interday moves that we have because you know on days like that you can have tremendous moves of that uh moving around but john can i change the subject for just a little bit um someone's asked a question about natural gas and you you got us onto this natural gas last year before it moved ten thousand dollars if you remember i believe it was april uh when you really start what was it what was it notice of february when you when you got really the big move uh that we were on was from october into december first okay well right now what we're sitting on i just posted the chart here we've got a three drive to a bottom pattern a very nice symmetry of about three weeks in between the moves six weeks in between the moves we tested the bottom down there at 215 which was the 78 percent level on the long-term weekly chart we rallied up and in yesterday and the day before we came right down to the 61 percent retracement at the old magic number of 222 we're trading at 227 right now john this looks like we could have a heck of a move to the upside if it starts going what's your feeling here yeah i um i'm a buyer like you are trading from the long side exclusively i'll share this my my uh my expectations for the amount of money to be made here uh buying my expectations are modest is what i i i'd say so in other words while i think this is a bottom forming in price i don't have i don't have any reason that i can come up with thinking that we get a sizable rally what i can say is you've come down in a pattern you recognize you've come down into your fibonacci support that you've pointed out and that's all supported by the uh observation i make that speculators as a group have liquidated all their lungs in the natural gas and are now flat to modestly net shorts and what i'll share with you my experience over the past 15 20 years on energy futures is that bottoms uh almost always occur once speculators have gotten flat to modestly net shorts so we're thinking about positioning and groups speculators as a group are always wrong at extremes and uh given the history i've looked at the past 15 years we're at the point where uh the signal is the speculators are wrong here being flat to modestly shorts i can't see any reason why we'd run 20 percent that doesn't mean we can pop five and ten percent and chop around and make some money by buying dips uh you know the next couple of weeks next couple of months so that's that's about all i can uh uh say to you on that well that's good i hope everything's going okay uh you know i know you're taking care of uh one of your parents now which is an admirable thing to do my friend and i want to wish you the best of luck and travel safe and uh stay with us buddy because you're a real great contributor to the tf and then we really appreciate the things that you post and uh for some of the trades that you have are just absolutely uh mind-boggling so that's uh that's really good so thanks for joining us today john i really appreciate it thanks for your help and uh happy fourth year class you bet i'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life it's the most common trait that we tigers and tigers share if you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done which is how to time the markets i'm steve rhodes author of mastering probability and for the last 12 months timer digest has been tracking my newsletter signals which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the s and p 500 for the last 12 six and three months timer digest also ranks me as the number one market timer for gold as well the fact is markets can be timed and i'll teach you the exact set of tools that i use that has transformed me into one of the best at what i do sign up for mastering probability today by clicking on the newsletter tab on the homepage of tf and n dot com and get immediate access to workshops where i take you step by step how to use an extraordinary set of tools as well as provide great market calls to sign up today if you haven't checked out the newsletter's page of tf and n dot com what are you waiting for all of the tf and n newsletters are informative up to date affordable and it must have for every trader looking to gain a competitive informational edge in today's markets tf and n newsletters cover every aspect of the markets to offer you the very latest in market news plus new subscribers get to test drive our newsletters risk free for 30 days from all aspects of the markets including stocks bonds metals commodities and tech there's a newsletter to fit your needs exclusively from tf and n stay informed each day you trade and get the competitive edge that will help you stay ahead of the game visit our newsletters page by going to tf and n dot com and click the newsletters button near the top of the page tf and n dot com educating investors since 1984 basil Chapman has been using the Chapman wave methodology to advise traders of his expert market opinion while originally hand drawing charts from the late 1970s into the 1980s basil noticed that prices under most circumstances virtually always had a certain number of legs to the upside before declining sharply later basil found that computer software which included the standard market technical indicators enhanced the degree of accuracy and calling price turns as well as market trend calls thus was born the Chapman wave sequence using the Chapman wave methodology along with other indicators basil Chapman advises his subscribers of his expert market opinion each market day with his opening call newsletter right now you can get a two week free trial to the opening call basil's daily trading newsletter by visiting the front page of tf and n dot com cancel at any time during that trial and pay absolutely nothing get your two week free trial to basil's newsletter the opening call today by visiting tf and n dot com this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tf and n dot com okay we're back folks and i want to remind you tomorrow i'm going to be taking the day off like everybody else trying to do something good for a veteran or someone that's homeless tomorrow folks a lot of people out there hurting badly but on friday i'm going to spend some time the first half hour of the show going over what i did during the 60s when there was the big russian grain robbery and the markets took off and cyclic tech with the work of jim herst was there and i'm going to try to show you how i simulated some of this stuff i learned about the fibonacci numbers in 1970 from john hill and i'll bring that into it also but i'll show you the type of trading that i did at that time i don't do that type of trading uh too much anymore once in a while i i will but as i looked at what i was doing i said my gosh i better start doing this again that's building positions in other words buying four or five at one level and two or three at another and then starting to pyramid when the market starts to break out whether whether i decide to do that yet or not i don't know but at my age now i'm having so much fun just trading these markets because there's so much volatility that's really great so try not to miss the show on friday if you can it will be archived i'm sure but there's going to be some good information in there i'm going to explain how high translation and left translation works that was done very well by uh david white here he discusses that quite a bit it gives you a rough idea of what we're looking at and i'll bring you some of the things that larry williams worked on price counts and things like that so we're new high in the stocks we're new high in the bonds but we're not seeing any open interest increases in these bonds and notes folks i don't know when it turns over i don't know when it turns over but when it does it's going to be interesting this is for sure now we were looking for 150 605 in those bonds so far we've been to 08 we're trading at 13 right now so watch that level 150 605 in the september bonds because breaking below that would be a relatively negative sign in my opinion so let's pay attention to that and have a happy fourth of july we live in the greatest country in the world we've got lots of problems but problems can be solved so just keep that in mind so live every day in an attitude to have an attitude of gratitude and may god bless see y'all on friday folks