 NFL DFS coming up just around the corner and it appears to be a week at least to me where There are some obvious ways to play things whether that be a running back or with game stacks or anything else I think that they're pretty clear paths. We may want to use and the question is are those paths too obvious the point Where they become mega chalk or should we just suck it up use the chalk and then deviate elsewhere I think that's the key decision point for this week We're gonna break that down and let you know the favorite plays for us over on Fando for week number 11 right now Welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire comm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire comm joined here As always by Brandon Gedula. He is the managing editor of number fire comm Brandon week 11 coming up on the horizon How are you doing today? I Say a little confused in the sense of whenever we first looked at this slate And I don't know sometimes I don't know I never know if you want me to just talk about something other than the slate and then we get into the slate, but okay I just took it as like a slate question for today, but I was like, okay cool There are five games with good totals and the other games are bad But the more you like look at those top five games you say one of them is good And that's the chiefs and cowboys and then I and just nitpicking every other game And so I thought that this would be a pretty easy week because even with obvious games I think a lot of people like They like good like per dollar values based on optimizers And we have a few of those guys who are outside of the top five games But for us that that still means that we just we could in theory just play guys from those top five games ignore the other games for the most part and Still find ways to be different But I'm like starting to talk myself out of some of those games So that's why I think not not talk and not talk myself out of to the point where like I'm not gonna touch those games But like yeah, I thought it was I just thought it was gonna be easier. So I feel a little bit silly now Well, I think that it's a question of Are the paths to failure enough to push you off completely or do they just lower you on them relative to other games? That's a tough decision to make because we have to decide, you know What are the odds that this path to failure hits? What are the odds this path to failure hits stuff like that? And that's not an easy thing to know like you have to you know decide you to figure a percentage to figure out You know come for each figure out what the the field will do because I agree there are paths of failure for all those games I still think that like a lot of them are fine like they're imperfect But they're fine and like honestly There pass failure for Cowboys cheese like what if the cheese offense regresses to what it was the previous month? What if Dallas doesn't show up on the road playing outdoors like there pass a failure there, too So the decision point is how much do we care about those paths to failure? How likely are they to hit doesn't matter to us and how do we handle that? We'll break all that down here in just bit but first a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast We are of course an Apple podcast Spotify Stitcher Google podcast you name it you can find us there hit subscribe and while you're there Leave us a rating and review as well. Also a reminder We have the listener league back once again this week Fandall comm a slash league slash listener league for the Fandall podcast network It is a $5 entry with three entries max. 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Let's go there Fandall comm slash free slash contest slash gridiron pick Come and make your picks today. Let's get the contracts with high-speed data talk and text and a powerful Nationwide network with simple mobile for more details as a fandall.com or download the fandall fantasy app eligibility Restrictions apply. Let's take a quick look at the slate over you for this week and Brandon to me It's it comes down to things it comes down to What do you do with the obvious undersold running backs and do you just load up on Casey Dallas or deviate there? Those are the two things to end up to me AJ Dylan I think Dave Montgomery is kind of in that range as well as being an under salary back if Alvin Camara can't return Which seems like you probably will mark Ingram's in that belt Dearness Johnson is high salary now, but might still be a bit under salary So to me it starts with the running backs and then that Casey Dallas game. Those are the key focal points for me What about for you? Yeah, I think those are Really the big questions specifically like Casey Dallas and then we extend that into how much better is that game than the other games in that top tier and for me I would actually put that game in its own tier and then yeah every other game in the second tier and I prefer The Raiders Bengals game of the other games with high totals myself, but as far as the running backs go I think that it It's just the the loan position for the most part Well, it would quarterback as well just because popularity numbers are so dispersed, but I don't really care about Shockiness at running back unless that comes with My own concerns like right. What are the concerns we would realistically have with AJ Dylan that his role Evaporates like there's nothing to point to that now it could because we don't know everything But everything trends toward AJ Dylan playing the Aaron Jones role for the most part the salary is too low So it's hard to kind of talk yourself out of that. David Montgomery. We saw You know, hey, maybe they're gonna Maybe they're gonna have Khalil Herbert be relevant It's high snap rate of the year in that game. It's wild and that was right and it was pre-buy So very clearly everything points to the fact that he's gonna be good to go Now the game that game has some concerns because there might be 30 total pass attempts there But I don't have questions like that. I have I had questions with other value backs at times But not those two specifically and even though they're they're not in the lowest sixes or like upper fives They're still value backs relative to relative to their role And I think the good thing with them is that we don't really need to have a $5,000 back this week because we have I mean, Tyree kill is amazing. He's $8,500 Devonta Adams 84 That's you can get to that with a with mid-range backs You can get Travis Kelsey at a three mark Andrews 7000 George Kittle etc. It's not you can get to those guys So I don't think we need Like super super saver values. I don't know we're gonna get them honestly So like that, you know, it's a moot point looks you might not get them I think that we can just focus on those guys and I agree that you like the checklist for me is If I'm trying to decide if a back transitioning into a bigger role will be worth the chalk is Do I know he'll be the guy? Will he get Goal line work will he get passing game work with AJ Dillon? He was getting Two out of those three already and the passing game work was kind of there too. Like he's had four targets multiple games. So to me I feel like it's just kind of a no-brainer there Montgomery's been getting most of those things not a lot of passing game work for him But in part because they haven't thrown that much And with fields trending up, it's possible. Like maybe they do that more But I think with the snap rate being what it is. It's fine. So I think that's the key to some point from me I think if we're talking about like which of the focal points is more likely to bust. I think that Casey Dallas is more likely to bust than the running backs at least Dylan specifically, but I think that game is like you said in a tier of its own by a pretty wide margin And I'm very okay Loading up on that one for sure. We'll talk about that game in the bookmaker section But let's start things off here with some injuries Kyler Murray was able to get in a limited session on Wednesday Not a guarantee yet that he plays this week because I do a buy coming up But I think with this being a divisional game with the way things transpired last week They want they need wins that they want that buy which they should deandre hopkins mispractice once again Or the hamstring injury We'll talk about this game in the bookmaker section Cam Newton is trending towards starting this week for the Panthers according to head coach Matt rule It is a low total game, but to me at least cam is better than pj walker So how does cam likely starting impact your view of christian mccaffrey in this game? mccaffrey I think is the single player i'm having the hardest time with because we talked on monday about the role being really good If you watch that game You saw that he had a lot of scoring chances despite the fact that cam newton is back as a goal line nuisance for christian mccaffrey, but again If the efficiency is better you would think there are more red zone chances more red zone chances Good for running backs even if the percentage of chances they get goes down a bit So I think mccaffrey is the the hardest player to peg for this week because the salaries up the game is awful It's like legitimately terrible Um, we don't know exactly what uh like how involved cam newton will be at the goal line Seems like pretty involved and christian mccaffrey though despite all that is He is the number one pick in fantasy football every year. Uh, he is worth like a 10 000 plus salary because he can get there without scoring If he puts up a christian mccaffrey game and scores once or twice That's like that's untouchable even at the salary. So I'm having a really hard time with mccaffrey. I want to love him And i'm probably gonna try to get overweight on him in tournaments But I don't know if he is a cash game like lock button even with the value at running back that we could pair him with Montgomery dylan and mccaffrey as our three backs So that's kind of where I am with mccaffrey. Uh, what about you? Yeah, I think for cash games It's okay to gloss over him because I I can take salary savings and still get like a good good good rule from guys like dalin cook Um, donald and taylor don't want to use in cash because of the the matchup But like I can use dalvin cook and cash and feel pretty good about that So to me, I think that for cash games, I'm okay not getting there for tournaments. I agree where I'd like to try to be overweight Realistically, I'm not I think it's the most likely scenario is that I will be overweight if the field winds up around 15 percent So I'm probably gonna be 20 25 30 somewhere in that range from mccaffrey so and like he could be around there honestly, but It's just a question mark of I'm okay being in line with the field on guys like that Because I know for a fact I'll be over on aj dylan like dearness johnson last week was on 44 of rosters like Basically doubled the field like Even the chalkiest running backs don't get to 70 80 90, which is where dylan will probably be for me So I know that I'll be overweight elsewhere. I don't need to be overweight at everyone So mccaffrey, I think I'll probably be somewhere in the 20 to 30 range I'm okay with that. I'd like to get there. Uh, but just like if I'm going to use mahomes tyreek Devonte guys like that it makes it tougher to Really get aggressive with a guy with a super high salary in a bad game I want to get there and I will get there 20 to 30 but I can't go too much harder than that there Alvin chimera returned to practice on wednesday Seems like he's trending toward returning this week It's a great match up at the eagles because their defense struggles in a lot of areas So will you use chimera if he plays or Do the workload concerns we talked about with him earlier with mark ingram being there keep chimera lower on the radar for you Yeah, he's pretty low for me I don't envision a lot of scenarios where I would play alvin chimera because mark ingram proved I mean it was Not the most flawless game, but he got there last week They've been it Using him more and more and we've been talking about alvin chimera's role trending down with mark ingram on the team Before chimera was hurt. So, you know, again ask yourself. What are the odds that chimera goes from like a 65 70% workload in terms of snap rate pre injury to Like 90 percent now coming back from the injury and it seems pretty low And this game does not appeal to me much at all. The eagles are really just turning to the run That is even if you're an efficient running team and you if you keep the You know, if you're an efficient running team and you run at a high pace, you're still grinding clock because you're not really They're getting those incomplete passes So I don't have a whole lot of appeal with this game overall and I honestly Probably won't have any alvin chimera in my player pool Yeah, I wouldn't be shocked if I wound up with none because like he's by Dalv whose role is better. Uh, his game is better. He's by jonathan taylor whose Game is better and matchup is really tough. But like he's just playing out of his mind right now I don't think chimera is totally off the map because he in the two games with ingram He's at 27 adjusts opportunities per game, which is karius plus two x targets, but I don't know like There's not a lot of juice in that usage for him compared to other guys because the offense is so lackluster So I probably I wouldn't be shocked if I wound up with none. It's not like a conscious thing where I'm like, no, no, no I can't use them. It's more like Realistically if I'm keeping my player pool tight, I would not be shocked if he winds up not being involved with that Clyde Edwards e-layer returned to practice last week And has a chance to suit up this week. Uh, not a lock based on what annie reed said We'll talk about that game in the bookmaker section. Myles sanders was designated to return to eagles It means he can practice Doesn't necessarily mean he will play But let's talk about this uh, this backfield situation because if if sanders is out, we know to ignore them We know that like who cares if he plays though any temptation for you on myles sanders or no No, okay. Eli Mitchell didn't practice Wednesday After having an operation done on his finger. I'll take that window. Sure Sounds like Mitchell will try to play through that injury this week. It's a great magic for the jaguar So I have two questions for you first How would you handle jeff wilson at $5,000 if mitchell were to sit and second Would you use mitchell if he were to play? Uh, well, I'll start with the easier one with mitchell. I would not play him The salary is a bit high for me. We have ag dillon at the same salary and you know, if this were If we're talking wide receivers here, I'd say yeah, I think it makes sense to to pivot away from the guy with I don't know four or five six times the the draft percentage That that the other player we have in question would carry but Running back is a volume-based position It's it's more predictable from that sense. So you can't predict yards per carry But you can to some degree predict workload Um, and that's why running back and draft percentage like popularity numbers don't bother me that much So I don't think I could play mitchell with the other two alternatives. We have the same salary. We're 200, uh below as for wilson I could I could build a case, but it goes back to what does it get me? and the thing that it would get me this week is like Tyreek davante and a stud tight end and i'm not quite certain that's a better tradeoff than Like montgomery and maybe a more mid-level receiver with george kittle at tight end. So I I don't know. I could see the case, but probably for me. I wouldn't get there in a lot of lineups Yeah, I think i'm a little bit higher on him because We know that he's okay. He's in on the goal line Um, they've shown that in the past also last year. He got a lot of work in the passing game He had like four targets per game over their final five games I was with where he most are being healthy. They still use wilson quite a bit in the passing game So Talked about, you know checking boxes wilson would check the early downwork box. He had 10 carries last week He checked the Likely passing game box that would depend on jimichael hasty I guess like if hasty's out I think that like wilson's a pretty easy sell there and then he checks the red zone box because They've shown that role in the past and they had four snaps inside the 13 yard line last week And wilson did play one of those Uh, whereas mitchell played two So there's no mitchell. I think that there are enough things going in wilson's favor to use him I don't think that's the most likely scenario. I think that he's probably gonna play But i'm hoping he does. I don't think about this, but like I would use I would use wilson if mitchell didn't go Okay, it's fair to say because I would use him too, but I think maybe the the real conversation is How does he compare to david montgomery at 68 ag dillon at 7 000 and then by just extension, of course If you play those two Is it wilson To get up to studs at receiver and tight end or someone like a dalvin ko Christian mccaffrey, whoever else I think he would grade out above montgomery if okay mitchell were to sit. I love montgomery I think he's very good play this week. I think the offensive concerns are there Matchup concerns are there passing game concerns are there and if I can get honestly like wilson would be kind of similar to montgomery for $1800 less and a better matchup on a better offense. So yeah, that's the reason I put him above montgomery and I like montgomery a lot That's not a I don't like him. I put him below dillon though despite the salary difference. I put him a good chunk below dillon I would say it's dillon tier one wilson montgomery and the tier two among the the non-stud running backs Yeah I think yeah, I think you sold me a bit. Okay It's it's still uh, I need to get a read thing and that does depend on hasty too So yeah a lot to change there, but like if it's no hasty and no Mitchell yes Yeah, yeah, that's yeah. I probably should have qualified for that I would still use me if hasty plays because I'm thinking you work in the passing game I'd just be less enthusiastic about it Then then montgomery versus wilson if we have if hasty plays with no, mitchell um Wilson by a very very very very very thin margin. I would say that's kind of that's originally how I took the question So again, we're enough. Yeah, but something to monitor. Um, everything could change we could get All three of them we could get one of them, you know, if you never know Uh hasty did not practice wednesday for what that's worth So keep up keep keep tabs on that one. I think it's an early game Which helps because it's uh 49ers usually aren't but they're on the east coast that does help quite a bit Uh, a lot of injuries for browns versus lions a game. I'm sure you care about deeply Both naker mayfield and jared goth missed practice wednesday jarvis landry and anthony schwarz didn't practice domino peoples jones Got hurt during practice with a groin injury. Nick shub is still in the covet 19 list So it's going great. I would bet that jarv plays I would bet that shub is activated sounds like both golf and mayfield will play but Pretty gross. What do you see in here? mckayton broad? What are you seeing? Um, I kind of Want to like nick chub and deandre swift But I don't think i'm going to get there because this game could just be abysmal. Um, it feels like we're potentially Just feeling the lions embrace the tank entirely Um, so we could get tim boil starting a quarterback We could get i'm just looking ahead because it's Thanksgiving slate next week We could get tim boil on the Thanksgiving slate, but I know we're focused on on this week um, so I I really do want to like Swift and chub But again, we don't know if chub is going to play and if he even if he doesn't I think dearness is too high salaried at 8,000 Really? Compared to other backs. Yeah I mean within this game So like this game is going to be terrible though He's got a 31 and a half adjust opportunities per game. It is his games with no chub. This game's going to be terrible. I don't care like That's okay. Okay, so johnson With no chub at 8,000 or montgomery at 68 johnson If there's no chub, I would I would go montgomery. Okay um I think the more interesting discussion would be johnson versus dalvin and I think that he's like in that tier Because johnson's 8,000's cook is 84 You're that high on this game No, i'm that high on his role if there's no nick chub I don't know I 31 and a half it feels like a game 162 yards per game 37 red zone share which is just fine, but like that's stupid against the the freaking lions This is like, uh, whenever you like damien harris a few weeks ago where it didn't feel like it fit your process We got the browns five and a half targets per game in that span. What are you? He's not damien harris How dare you insult dearness johnson and call him damien harris? What is this? I mean if you let me even start my sentence, you would have understood where I was going Damien harris did not fit your process to me Dearness johnson is an 11 and a half point favorite, which you don't like huge running back favorites The total is 43 and a half. You don't usually like games that are This low total especially with other games. I'm surprised you like johnson. That's all i'm trying to point out I don't care if you play him or not. I don't like I don't care. I'm not saying he's damien harris very different roles I get that but This does not seem to fit your process and I wanted to point that out to you I care less about Scripts when they're under salaried, which he would be at eight thousands Um, all right in like I don't care about total as much for running backs that part that point is actually true I don't care much about total for running backs. It matters, but it matters less So that part like mcaffer. I wouldn't consider if like if you were a receiver Um, I just wanted some clarity. I wasn't trying to like You know hopefully nick chubb plays and I can just ignore this like that would be great So rest up nick get better. He's nine thousand. I think like even if chubb goes we're not there at nine thousand, correct? I liked I liked the idea of nick chubb, but I said I don't like this game enough But like de urn is with no chubb is a better role than chubb with de urnist Yeah, that yeah, but that's not the question. It's de urnist versus other backs in much more promising games Anyway, any other uh, browns you like here or no, no, I don't like anyone in this game. Okay, good I'm gonna skip this game then. Uh, Jeremy McNichols missed practice wednesday due to a concussion I Don't like this backfield. I hate it. Uh, but if mc nissle mc nistles mc nistles misses time There we go that had to trim it to a two man rotation instead of a three man rotation facing a really bad houston defense The problem is that like diante foreman is 6200 dollars, which is like outrageously high For some reason is that high enough brandon where you would ignore him? Even if big nickles can't go uh, well they are favored by 10 the total is 44 and a half So that is basically the same as what we get with de urnist. So i'm assuming You would pay 10 000 for diante foreman here. No because there's no adrian peterson in cleanland Man, um, no, I I don't really so I picked up foreman In season long which I don't bring up to talk about my season long team But I kind of did it begrudgingly and I put in a very like loop warm offer in my leagues And I got him in a few spots. I thought he would be more popular as a waiver wire ad, but yeah Um, I didn't really like the role we I think we recap this briefly Monday or I remember looking into it. It's like the snap rate is probably not going to be high enough He's going to have some concerns. I know he kind of Will probably carry some popularity, but I just I don't think there's enough to make him like a core play at 62 adrian peterson ran more routes than diante foreman last week. He ran six to foreman's five I know it's not a huge split, but like that's really gross um Yeah, I think I think with two guys splitting early down work because like peterson still got work in that game and if there are no mcnichols like I don't know what the passing game situation would look like so Well, they have to pass it at all like that's another thing. That's true. They might not have to So would they split 20 carries? That's 20 adjust opportunities like You know Split like you're saying 10 carries each No, like 20 each 56 plays they run the ball 40 times They throw 16. I mean that honestly wouldn't surprise anyone or sure. Mike rable is like Aroused hearing that as being like in the range of outcomes. So I don't know. I'd have a I'd have a tough time getting to him. I you know So this is a good example though, too of like, we don't know what diante foreman's role would be with with no mcnichols like we we can project it, but we don't know We should know what ag dealing is dealing with. Um, we should know dude. Montgomery's role. Yeah um Now de earnest without chubb, we know what that role is like that's I'm not like I know i'm not I was kind of teasing jam a bit I think the salary is like a bit high for me But like we know we don't know here and like that's a big red flag that it's kind of a trap level. I of course We at least know enough to know that like adrian peterson's not going to play 90 of the snaps Like it's not like we have no idea, but it could be a 50 50 sweat But foreman could also play 70 percent. We don't know and I don't really know if the risk is worth it I think that's where i'm at as well The jets are going to start joe flacco over mike white this week wacko for flacco is back zack wilson not ready to return yet and I think this is a lateral move Personally people seem to like mike white. I don't I don't quite get it personally But hey, you know, I think it's pretty lateral moves So it doesn't really impact anything for me in terms of viewing the jet skill guys and the dolphins. What about for you? um, I mean really the only player I'd be Interested in is michael carter 66 I don't think there's enough there So I look briefly at quarry davis I couldn't quite talk myself into it because he's 64 to dollars. It was pretty high But like I looked at it stared at it for a hot second at least I mean the I think the key change that we could look like Assume Is that that there shouldn't be more downfield passing? Right which negatively impacts carter because that's the only reason he was like hyper viable is because he's getting these dump offs Yeah, no, I know you're gonna you're talking about the the dolphins right in a trend So, I mean we could talk about this game a little bit more in detail But like sure this the sheer fact that flacco starting I don't think we can Consider very actionable unless we are looking only at downfield passing work and probably downgrading Carter as a result unless you think Joe flacco is substantially more efficient than mike white was and so then they're in scoring position more Which I personally not gonna project. I think they're the same person like one just goes deeper They're the same. It's a lateral move like white's fine. Joe flacco is fine like, you know Who cares we'll talk about the dolphins later on though So let's talk about some bookmaker info for this week and start things off With that marquee game between the cowboys and the cheese total is 56 right now chiefs two and a half point favorites We know that we want to stack this game Uh, but all games have passed the failure that could happen. So How aggressive will you be in loading up on this game? I think one way you'd phrase this is In what percentage of your lineup so you have a non-dac or non-mahomes quarterback there? um Well Possibly zero. Yeah, I think that's on the table I I'm having a hard time at quarterback. I'm nitpicking everyone Uh And I I'm not nitpicking these two everyone else is kind of off like I don't want to say off the radar, but like Outside my realm of like comfort and I'm going to mention a name here and I know Jim's going to make a face Oh, no, but I'm looking at like I've exhausted my options Like karson wenz at 6900 within a game that could have a lot of points tough defense Like he's been really bad against tough defenses So I can't even try to think outside the box and feel like hey This gives me access to whatever because I don't need value at quarterback So I think that that Bringing like the whole quarterback slate into the conversation These two guys are so much above everyone else that I I don't really anticipate I don't even know who my third quarterback would be this week. What about you? I tried to grab someone else and I couldn't so I'm in the same boat like I couldn't find anyone um Like the only guys I like Considered for half a second were josh allen russell wilson and kyler Murray Those were the three and like you could say absolutely no to russell. I wouldn't push back like that's a fine take totally fine it's just like Lamar weird game You know, he's had some bumps. I would say as a passer to tana hill. He's been not great without derrick henry. He's also in a not great game script. Actually, there's like somewhat considerable Kirk cousins somewhat considerable joe burrow somewhat considerable So I feel like to me Go ahead No, I was gonna say my floor ceiling ratings have allen number one as usual. Um, which isn't surprising um Dax actually like 10th for some reason. Um, I need to make some changes there. I know um but There's a it's just really flat and nobody seems to have a bunch of upside Yeah Like and that's crazy because we have we have multiple games with like heavy totals, but I'll talk about some splits in just a second That are worrisome about like the rust kyler matchup Yeah Like I could see maybe you say hey like two is there but when I think of two I do not think of like upside quarterback No, it wasn't the perfect ones, but like You know, it was a pretty low scoring week, which it could be again, but I don't want to factor that in Maybe I should be higher on burrow. I guess I think burrow is the guy for me that I would save salary with If I if I need to I so I said russ and kyler I should probably say allen and burrow are like the the next two I'd consider I think that should be where I'm at Okay, so we're we're really high in this game. Love the two quarterbacks could see ourselves Whittling it down to just those two guys. What is your preferred way to stack this game? um, it's gonna be This might be a game where I go like multiple pass catchers with My quarterback or like dak plus zeke plus gallop or something like that. Um To pick only one is really tough I would probably lean I'd probably lean my homes kelsey because I I want I think I think that tight end is a very specific type of position this week with some studs on the On the docket. So I'm gonna say my homes kelsey Zeke and gallop maybe Okay, that's fair. I like that pretty heavy stack. I think that the zeke with dak pairing is pretty fun again um I think they're like to me like I've got one in front of me right now and it's it's my home's tyree gallop and I think Like I prefer to have that yeah, yeah I prefer to get the lamb because he's working from the slot again with galloping back and that's kind of how you Can shred this can city defense. He's the guy who like I felt the most steady with most of this year I will say that because lamb blew up last week and because gallop solo salaried For a single entry tournament amara cooper is really really intriguing at 7300 dollars. He still has bonkers upside He can still go nuts and burn you for not using him so like Maybe if I'm talking single entry tournament here, I've got I've got only one way to stack this game up. Maybe I should go amari But like if I'm trying to get to dow trying to get aj dylan guys like that realistically gallop is going to be Grading out pretty well the one concern that I have here with you know being all in on the dallas passing game is that You can beat this cheese defense in the ground. We've seen dallas Fully be aware of when they can beat a team on the ground and just pummel them to death so like I think that lends itself well to a mahomes tyreek Zeke stack as well So although I think zeke is objectively over salaried compared to you guys like dalvin compared to Me his role is pretty similar to joe mixon's and mixon is almost a thousand dollars lower um I think zeke is over salaried and therefore will not be a fixture for me in non game stacks I do want to make him a decently large focal point within those game stacks because of the way they could play this thing So you think zeke at 85 in the game of the week is over salaried But dearness johnson at 8 000 in a horrible game would be under salaried. Correct. Okay That's just wild. I mean like I can see their workloads are very different and that's why like 22.9 adjusted if you're building if you're building If you're building a cash game lineup and you have 85 You would go johnson over no You already have a cash game lineup and there's no chub. I would go johnson in a harpy. Yes over zeke. Okay And like I might not spend the 500. Okay. Um Yeah, i'm gonna go back to the amari cooper thing because last week they you know dal was pulled their starters It was it was a route but he ran uh 89 of the routes by contrast CD lamb was at 60 he came out early With an arm injury pretty sure it was an arm injury. Um, so he might not be 100 percent and That again leads me like cooper had over achieved in the two games out of the buy Then then I said like I mean to make it sound like that, but I liked Uh lamb a lot last week because he was underperforming and cooper overperformed We saw lamb overperformed last week. Um, and now it's I think that it would make a lot of sense if it's cooper's turn To get um, you know to go over expectation, especially if he's the healthier of the two Well, they're all healthy. Uh, everyone was full in practice. Kevin tyron smith He was limited and he hasn't he didn't play the past couple weeks. So like They're healthy. That's pretty scary. They're they're number one of my power rankings for betting and like I kind of like double-taked at that but then I was like, yeah, that sounds right and I was good at that we had Nate tice on our uh betting podcast yesterday and I like Brought up to him like hey cowboys are 10 to 1 he's like I already bet that yesterday at plus 850 So like cowboys are good. So maybe I should go deck over my homes, honestly but I think because I could see Them being a bit more ground heavy to exploit the cheese weaknesses That's pushed me towards my homes, but I think that they're They're like not even a 1a 1b. They're they're 1a 1 like I don't have a preference. I think uh, if I flip the coin And then you do the thing where you flip a coin and then you know like which one you actually wanted I think I'd probably lean toward deck. Okay, that's fair I can't push back if I if I don't have an extra hundred like Whatever, uh, where are you at with the non elite guys here? So darryll williams that there's no ceh ceh if there is ceh and uh I guess Byron Pringle. I don't know like Yeah, I'm not I'm not chasing I'm not chasing what would be tertiary role for the chiefs as far as pass catchers go because um Me co-hardman really would have had to have Like done something to be completely irrelevant. He got pretty dusty last week, but That goes against everything we've seen Through a week 10 or three years through a week. I think that they just benched him Yes Does that enough to believe in Byron Pringle being I don't like that role I don't think so checklist is 85 yards or two touchdowns, and I'm not drinking either So I'm not going to touch Any of the again tertiary pass catcher. So it's just Tyreek and Kelsey who and I like Kelsey a lot this week which is Not like I haven't I talked them up like every week last week or last year um, I don't know if I I probably had him as a love like early on in the season, but not for a while I've changed my tune on on Kelsey I would say Daryl Williams if no C. E. H. If C. E. H plays I'm not going to play C. E. H. Because we've seen Just nothing from him So I would go Daryl without C. E. H. And then for Dallas. I think it's The top five Dolan Schultz is kind of interesting just because the chiefs are He worst adjusted past the offense against tight ends, but I don't know if I'm quite going to get there myself Yeah, I think you'd squeeze in no gallops. I'd probably not going to get there either with Daryl They'll be $6,300 that passing game role last week was sick. Um passing game production was sick like look great, so $6,300 I'd put him above Montgomery if there's no C. E. H. Maybe I'm just lower on David Montgomery than I think I am No C. Okay. No C. E. H. Daryl Williams No C. E. H. Nenek Chubb Daryl Williams or Dianna Johnson I think you'd be a little bit I think you'd be a little bit like egregious to say it's dearness like with with no hesitation there I don't think so I think it's close though I think Daryl be a pretty good option Just because like the passing game volume has been so steady for him and I think with the way he played I don't think that's going to go away so I'd feel good about Daryl if there were no C. E. H. Any final thoughts for you on this game? Uh This is the the game the only game that I can't really nitpick much at all I agree So let's move now to games. We can nitpick the total for Packers versus Vikings is 49 and a half Packers favored here by two and a half Not the fastest game by any means, but It is indoors. We know where the ball is going Where does this one rank for you in terms of game stacks this week? I think it's going to be third Okay, um, obviously Chiefs Cowboys is is number one For me, the second game is going to be Cincinnati and Las Vegas And then I think this game is is number three just because of the concentrated usage um, and we love both both starting running backs in this game from a fantasy standpoint, but I think it's I think it's Sorry, our note sheet says Packers versus Cowboys and I was like am I on the wrong am I on the wrong week here? What am I what am I doing? um Because I was going to mention how I was going to mention how it's a divisional game Um, and because we have two divisional games within the top five the key standout games I wanted to go back and just kind of look um, it it what has happened in divisional games because we Generally like no to avoid divisional games to some degree or like downgrade them I should probably say rather than avoid, but I wanted to see if that was true In both sides are top five and adjusted past defense according to number fire and overall since 2012 um From 2012 to 2020 to not including this season If you look at just qb1's projected for the most fantasy points on our team about 26 on time This quarterbacks go over 300 yards If you look at divisional matchups where the opponent was a top 60 fence entering that week that number drops to 18 percent so like I could possibly talk myself into Aaron Rodgers is like the qb3 but Historically, it's just not the right sort of situation And all that being said Devonte Adams is kind of due for touchdown regression Which it depends on how how much of a long-term view you take because he's over performed there like insanely But if you look just within the season, he should actually have some better touchdown luck coming like moving forward So I like Devonte I don't think that's enough for me to get to rogers And of course, I'm gonna play a g dylan from the packer side, but what are you seeing here for the Vikings? I think the easy way is just to stack the running backs And like I know people may have concerns about that because like we think of like hey correlated pieces One run running game with the opposing passing game for script That doesn't matter too much to me because like we see running backs stacked in the same games pretty often Last year it happened twice in perfect lineups this year. It's happened twice within the past couple weeks It was uh week eight michael carter joe mixon week nine nick chubb joe mixon Joe mixon's been in a lot of third lineups this year weirdly um So like game stacking running backs is fine if the roll is good if the game is closed this game is bold So I think that's that's the easy way to go. It's just stack the running backs So is this going to be de harness de andre swift week? Is that what you're telling me? No No, well if de harness doesn't lock for the perfect lineup, I mean You can at least make a case for you know, I'm thinking chubb's gonna play so I'm not really thinking too much about it But like um after all this you think nick chubb's going to play probably I think I probably could clear by then He doesn't positive like last monday or tuesday So you should probably be back by then with Dalvin and dylan though. I think that like if I were talking before about like I've got one lineup Maybe I want to get to amari I definitely want dalvin and dylan in that lineup. I think that they to me are like The couriest of core plays Dillon above cook obviously, but like among the studs. I think dalvin's probably my preference relative to salary like compared to Uh compared to zeke chimera jonathan taylor christian mccaffrey. I think I've got dalvin one from that group Do you as well or no? I think I do yeah, um With like It's not really fair even to compare him to mccaffrey just because the salaries are so different, but yeah You know if I if So we're gonna have our snake draft uh tomorrow on friday with with jg's acker recent I think christian mccaffrey at this point is just the the no brainer 101 just take him and move on but When we factor in the salary cap uh situation even though because like I don't like that game a lot I still think he's the best raw play. I agree. Uh, but at that salary, I think it's enough where you have to kind of step back taylor is a big underdog and we And buffler has just been a really good defense against not great opponents, but I'll talk about that later too Yeah, uh a little bit of a teaser there. So I think your right work hook is just the the number one play I think I agree with you on divante. The problem is realistic. I'm just gonna have tirey kill more. Um, but like You do range of outcome stuff. It is so so so so so within the range of outcomes for divante to outscore tirey kill so like I want to actively make sure I get in dalvin divante gain stacks as well With dylan in there. I don't mind divante and dylan. That's fine. Who cares? Um, but I want to actively make sure I get those because although I feel better about hill I know from a probability perspective the odds that divante outscores him are decently high So I do want to get him in there. What about the lower salary pieces here? I guess you should probably talk about jesson jefferson and adam thielen. Um Where are you out on them? Sorry, I was checking out my my sims and naturally I have Uh, tyreek a bit more likely to get to 25 and 20, but it's it's about the same for to get to 15 Fandal points is compared to divante, but um Seems like popularity projections might be fairly high on Divante over tyreek, which I don't quite get Why is why? Why don't I get no why why would that be the case? Um Okay, so I'm seeing some conflicting stuff But okay, it seems pretty tight and if it's pretty tight I would go tyreek I would be more inclined to go to divante in like a single entry if The expert like the popularity projections were massively different so I mean, I still like divante plenty again with the the touchdown regression expected But yeah tyreek for me in a vacuum for sure And you asked me about the the vikings. Is that what you feel an interesting? Yeah well jefferson, yeah Not a versus each other, but how do you view them relative to the slate? um So felon's just to know for me He like he's flashed a little bit more yardage upside than we've seen from him historically I don't actually know if that's like literally true, but it feels a little bit more true he just He needs two touchdowns to be relevant and that's not something that I could ever really bank on On jefferson great game last week so that could get a little bit more popularity on to him at 79 I don't think that there's enough in this game like this game with the passing numbers I talked about like with against tough defenses sit like Division opponents these teams play each other a lot Like I don't think there's enough to make him a core play and I don't like this game enough to stack it Like outside of the running backs. So I'm probably I'm gonna be absent on jefferson and my player pool I mean like realistically like he's by cd lamb and jamar chase. I think I prefer both. Is that crazy? No, why would that be crazy? I don't know. I love justin jefferson. That's why but like those guys are stupid So I think I go there So I would say lamb has a better chance to get to two touchdowns Which I know we just got last week So I probably shouldn't say that because that's just not how touchdowns get scored but um, and then jamar chase has of the three Like the ability to go for 180 yards um So I think jefferson is third out of that tier as well And that's not a shot at jefferson. It's just because we like those guys a lot So let's move now to the seattle game as they're facing the cardinals total is at 48 With the cardinals favored by one and a half the seahawks sound like they Might be on the verb of verge of trying to establish it again and kyler is banged up This game is still tempting because it's a high total. It's a tight spread We have good pieces good quarterbacks on both sides Do the red flags for you outweigh the possible possible positives of this game? Yeah, this game i'm lower on than the the packers in viking's game I have a lot of concerns about this one. I would not be surprised and look I I liked that packer seahawks game last week. I thought the over was in play but um Did not happen that's not to say that i'm like out on seattle entirely Because that's a little bit egregious to go like hey ross is Talking about letton russ cook. He's the one who's cooked like i'm not i'm not you know there but But like There are enough concerns It's the same thing applies for the seattle offense at least where Arizona is a top top six adjusted past defense according to number fire again. That's just not good for passing production overall so I'm probably not going to play any seahawks I'd be more inclined to play some cardinals specifically zack urge just because the salary is really low So if i'm not playing like a stud tight end I would at least consider someone like urge down at 5 000 I think if i'm multi-entering I want to make sure i've exposure to dk mech cap and tyler locket because this game is a path blowing up Um, it's a first time divisional matchup. I believe Yeah, I don't I didn't look at that. I'm just saying divisional matchups overall But that does help. Um, and like we know that locket and mech cap when russ is russ can Obliterate a slate. So I'd like some exposure to that because I think they will get glossed over But like from a core plate perspective. I cannot prioritize them over chase over lamb over cooper Over if we're talking locket, you know Actually, you probably could prioritize him over Like michael pitman and jill and waddle. I think I could go with locket. There's maybe a wind of being pretty high on locket I think I had 40% last week, which didn't go great. Um But I think I could probably get there with locket. Uh, so maybe I'm actually higher at him than I thought I was But what I think the other guy worth talking about here is james connor salary of 72 I'm guessing people will be bored with him after last week where they felt like they got by in a touchdown Which they did objectively true, but if kyler is back and you give me James connor with kyler at 72. That's a pretty good tournament pivot. I think I'd use him with AJ dillon So it's not like a pivot pivot, but like I would bet that he gets ignored And I think that's kind of interesting That's kind of one guy to highlight here is james connor as being someone I want to Be in on at least a bit if kyler can't go Connor with kyler versus montgomery Well with with kyler, I'd go connor So it sounds like we are lower on montgomery than we thought no, I like him It's just like there's some things we need to break a certain way to for him to Be above these guys I like him. I have I have connor fourth and my fourth ceiling Ratios here. Yeah, and I think that makes a lot of sense and I can't push back on it I think it's like I'm assuming nick chubb Is gonna play which knocks out dearness who we talked about relative to montgomery. Um, I'm Fought about I'm assuming that ceh is probably gonna play Which lowers the appeal and darel we talked about him relative montgomery So I think like montgomery is still gonna be a pretty Proud focus for me. It's just like realistically like there are there are paths to his grading at worst It's kind of actually james connor last week We're like, oh we like connor because there weren't a ton of options But then camara opened up Dearness johnson opened up and it wanted to be more connor was still like someone I used But like I was not as high and it was I thought I'd be montgomery I wanted to be in that depending on how things break this week But I do think that connor if kyler plays is a pretty good play at 72 Yeah, I'm with you. Uh, what are your thoughts on, uh, the cardinals pass catchers if murray goes I don't know man. I Because like it sounds like I'm lower on this game than you are you have like fear of missing out on locket and Matt calf My fear of missing out is not great enough to want to like burn lineups on the chance that russ is like not really back It's a tough matchup Again, like I wouldn't be surprised of course if this game scores 60 total points But I think the odds of that are it sounds like lower than you so again What are the what are you looking at for arizona's pass catchers or is it more just like connor plus locket for you connor locket game stacks connor dk game stacks and And then locket is like a standalone play. I think works out well, too That's kind of where i'm at like so no kirk. No, I don't think so Same for you or no Yeah, I don't like this game that much like I think this is one of the games that will carry more popularity than I view it should like than I think I have so i'm cool And again, you can't it doesn't matter how many lines you play you cannot play every game That's just not a good like long-term strategy So I got to cut off some games and I think I'm much more willing to cut off this game than of course dallas, kansas city Green Bay, minnesota, and sincenedia in los vegas So let's talk about that sincy versus vegas game moving to our trends discussion because you are focusing on The raiders offense here without henry ruggs. We've had a lot of weird situations here at the raiders because John grudon's gone. Henry ruggs is gone. They've had a lot of Most quote-unquote that's most often samples this year. You're gonna look at them the past couple games What are you seeing with this raiders offense in that time? Yeah, I mean we could have looked at them You know since john grudon's departure You know without henry ruggs with josh jacob's with darren waller Which kind of depends so I did a little bit of a mix, but it's mostly um The overall philosophy I wanted to make a note. I mentioned this on monday's recap podcast, but Um since changing head coaches from john grudon to rich rich basaccia Um, I think it's been a little bit relevant. The raiders are Playing up tempo. They've ranked top four in non garbage time pace over their their past three games Uh under grudon there were 20th in pace fifth and pass rate Um since then under basaccia first in pace so up from 20th Eighth and pass rates is still top 10. So they're throwing the ball, but they're playing faster And my data actually has their offense ranked sixth Inexpected points per play since john grudon resigned in disgrace Um, they were actually a league best in two post buy games with henry ruggs, but in two games Since thereby without ruggs, uh, they ranked 24th in expected points per play according to my model Um now according to next gen stats Since 2020 without ruggs in the field darik cars yards per temp rate falls from 8.6 To 7.3 his epa per drop back falls from 0.15 to 0.02 and his average depth of target falls from 8.9 to 7.4 The sample size with tishon jackson could not be much smaller. He ran four routes but we did see a 15 yard a dot on those plays so Maybe you make your case where jackson plays more and helps stretch the field a bit. He's not going to play as much as henry ruggs, but Field stretchers help and we've seen research. I believe from kevin coal On very very positive back in the day. He had very very positive on tishon jackson's impact on uh, a team's offense again. He's older now then Literally ever because that's how it works for everybody, but But you know, we still saw a good a dot on a small sample So that at least gives me reason to believe that they'll try to stretch the field and then get the shot out there but the point being team has not been quite they've been good without gruden But they haven't been good without henry ruggs. Like that's the bigger issue um And this game for me like I said is really one of the most appealing totals 50 points spread just one point um The question is like Can I get to the raiders a lot in two post buy games without ruggs? We've seen zade jones and brian edwards who are 5 000 and 5 500 with their salaries respectively They've run a route on 91 of the drop acts but have market shares of Under 10 10 or lower. You know love that. Um But more importantly 23 target share for darin waller And uh four hunter ren fro ren fro salary 61 wallers is 67 Josh jacobs at 69 Has a 53 snap rate 57 57 reds and rushing share. So like I like this game. I like the bangles. They're a lot easier to figure out who you want to play So I wanted to dig into the Raiders and see if there was enough. I think there is for waller I think I and this is not the type of play I usually would Talk about but I think hunter ren fro is a little bit more viable than I historically would have viewed him as He's got a 3.8 yard eight odd, but um I don't know uh At least waller we can bring it back with I feel like I think waller's back on the menu. Yeah, um, I don't know I'll get the jacobs, but I just wanted to see if I should be totally worried about the raiders and I think I'm Worried but not to the point where I'm going to think this game just completely bust So what are your thoughts on the raiders here and are you gonna? Uh, what do you do like the bangles basically? Yeah, so I think that worried is right the way you the way you phrase it is right We're worried but not worried enough to like Bump out of the bangles or like ignore darin waller and that's kind of what you're looking for here I think waller works for sure. Uh, he has like he said 23 target share in that time I also has 23 of the deep targets 19 in the red zone Uh, ren fro actually has 31 the red zones like the touchdown odds are there But like he hasn't top 50 in either game He did have some more yard issues earlier on this year, but never got to 80. I don't think so I'm gonna ignore him waller. I think works really well with Nixon and chase lineups and I've Generally poo poo tea higgins, but he's $6,500 if I look just since he returned from injury And I think that's the most relevant sample because like jamar chase blew up And I think that they changed their prioritization in that sample since he returned 24 target share for higgins What's a what six? I don't know. I did 24 Oh, I because I knew the target share was oh Still 24 you've run the split. Yeah, that's what I'm saying 24 percent 30% deep 19 in the red zone. That's good enough to use $6,500. So I would prioritize them chase one mix and two and then T Higgins three, but I think all three are in play And I think that if I can gain stack them with waller, I'd like to do so that's where I'm at with this game Yeah, I so I think like Yeah, we're a little we're we're pretty limited. I'll say with the Raiders, but I still like that. I still like being limited with Darren waller again I don't want to be I don't want to like skimp on tight end Yeah, a ton like Because we have kiddle who seems back Kelsey who seems back ish If not back. Yeah waller's back ish at least like if those guys put up You know 15 to 20 Fandall points Yeah, someone down there in the in the value range is going to get to like 16 because he's going to score Um, but like that's not very predictable and it's easy to cherry pick after the fact Oh, yeah, some of these guys matched like the the studs, but the predictability angle that is really scary. Um So I want to be in a waller. I love T Higgins enough at that salary loves you more chase That's why I think I can't really get to like Justin Jefferson very much Correct. Um, and Joe mixon, I think we have we've talked a lot of a lot about a lot of running backs I think mixon might be one of the best plays this late though Yeah, he's $7600 Got a good roll Not the worst matchup The Raiders are better against the rush than they are against the pass if I recall correctly Let me fact check that because we care about truth truth on this podcast, uh, las vegas 25th against the past six against the rush based on number of fires metrics, so I don't think it matters too much though. I think mixon's fine I'm okay being there with him prefer chase though Due to the path of lesser resistance and fewer options. I just like a lot of running backs So that's why I'm there. Let's move now to the bills versus the colts Um, I'm talking here about the bills defense when they face competent offenses And that's a small sample because when you adjust for schedule, the bills are the best defense football They are second against the pass first against the rush. They're legitimately good I want to know if they're good to the extent where we need to avoid jonathan taylor and michael pitman against them this week because I like both those guys workloads the colts rank 11th In scheduled adjusted offense based on number fires metrics And that means this sunday will be just the third time in 10 games The bills have faced an offense in the top half of the league in that metric Six of their nine games nice have been against Offenses in the bottom third all the league in total offense. So I want to know did the decent offenses do anything against his defense Those two games against good defense or good offenses were the cheese from the titans the bills let up 20 points the cheese but 34 to the titans Patrick mahomes really struggled he was at negative point one five passing that expected points per drop back ryan tan it was pretty good He had point 30 passing that expected points per drop back the best mark of any high volume quarterback against them this year plus Derek henry went psycho buck 43 three tutties in that game He's the only guy to have more than 67 rushing yards against them But it's at least very interesting that he did this the colts rank fourth and schedule adjusted rushing efficiency jonathan taylor on another level right now I don't think he's out of play at $800 even in a super difficult matchup here All the tougher time with pitman and the rest of the guys though a j brown 91 yards against the bills Cory davis 93, but that's the most they've led up to a pass catcher this year Plus like you mentioned on monday and passing ty hilton beanback does have at least some negative impact on pitman so I am very interested in having shares with jonathan taylor in tournaments and pairing him With staphon digs or manual sanders. Are you comfortable enough with taylor's role to use him in a really tough match up this week? Yes, but he's not going to be someone that I Feel like I really prioritize over other backs unless I'm stacking this game, which is in the conversation We saw staphon digs kind of he's he's been trending up slowly toward being treated as a wide receiver one We saw that last week. I know we saw the results, but we saw the role and that's what I was more impressed with um, so if I play digs with taylor, I think that that is A very sensible way to be a bit contrarian, which is like hey these guys are digs coming off a huge game taylor's phenomena right now How's that contrarian but like realistically for what they can do that's it they're not going to be as popular as they deserve to be Um, sounds like you're out on pitman. Is that right? I would not be using this week um, so I looked at uh His splits against tougher defenses because karsten wence again I like I looked pretty hard at at a lot of quarterbacks And I thought even wence below 7 000 could open up a lot wence has been bad against good past defenses, but uh pitman jr Uh has 28 of the targets in those three games against top 12 adjusted past defenses 10.3 targets 6.7 catches 86 yards and one touchdown per game So I know that his role is going to downgrade a little bit with hilton back, but hilton Should still help the overall offense be a little bit more efficient So i'm not out on pitman, but it's more of a it's more of a matter of I prefer some other guys So I at least want to speak positively uh to where michael pitman jr uh as a pivot I'm looking at roster projections and like uh all three of christian mccaffrey jonathan taylor and zeke elliott are Projected to be pretty low rostered Preference for you in terms of a tournament pivot between those three it was mccaffrey zeke and taylor um I mean i think that's gotta be mccaffrey because he's going to be Like it's hard to get to him and it's hard to justify the salary based on the matchup But I do think that The role has been so good even in like limited snaps that there's enough we've seen him perform on bad offenses in bad games It's like I don't want to get over I don't want to get crazy here and Like not like rank him last so I would go mccaffrey I'd try to find some salary to get up to mccaffrey because that that is going to almost guarantee that you then you're more Like you're more different at other positions by default taylor zeke taylor I think I agree. So let's move now to your second trend and talk about uh the 49ers offense with uh, george kittle being back Needed him in the dynasty leagues. I'm pretty happy about this to see him back and cook and once again And he does change things for sure. They're facing the jags. Uh, so we want to at least talk about the 49ers What do you see with this offense now that george kittle is back? Yeah, so uh through the two trends and the three bookmakers The games that we've talked about we've covered the five good games the games that are left are bad They're not good and they're also pretty bad overall. I think this game might be the least bad of the bad games It's a six and a half point spread That's not that big. I know they're the 49ers are on the roads that helps Narrow the spread they're playing it 10 a.m. Their time which you know anecdotally at least is not what you want but That keep that should in theory keep the game a bit closer um But i'm not really that concerned but this offense I think this might be one of the sneakier plays for me and they might not turn out to be sneaky But I feel like they're they could be This season jimmy garoppolo ranks them on quarterbacks with at least five games in passing net expected points per drop back over expectation That keeps the offense going um in weeks three four nine and ten so after brandon iuk wasn't completely just on the sideline all the time But with george kittle playing we see debo samuel lead the team with 27 of the targets and george kittle at 26 of the targets brandon iuk Just 6 000 this week on fando. I think he's appealing 16 target share one downfield one red zone and one end zone target per game That's really not bad for a receiver Within an offense that we should be able to project as being efficient, but if you look at just the past two games so with kittle back brandon iuk even more involved in this offense kittle leads the team with 26 of the targets samuel is at 24 percent and iuk is at 21 percent So it's a rare team where we see 20 plus percent market shares for You know capable players no matter what you think of brandon iuk. He's a capable nfo receiver for sure I don't think that was really the concern It's his talent level. It was the the usage of course. Eli mitchell has banged up But his average 22 and a half adjusted opportunities per game over the past two If he plays I don't think there's enough because they don't it doesn't feel like they'll have to Throw him the ball or really run him into the ground At 7 000. I don't think i'm quite there, but again, like I think there are some things you can say for certain right now This team has three relevant pass catchers And they should be able to throw the ball efficiently this week So I think they're kind of interesting as like a very easy way to go away from those top five games Any thoughts on the 49ers here? I think kittles probably the one guy I will use because feels tight end really good upside You know $600 is not bad for his his workload So kittle I like iuk at 6 000. I think it's a little too thin for me to get there He has eight and four targets in those two games and like it's a good target share But they don't want to throw. I think they kind of hate jimmy. He's played Pretty well the past but i don't think they trust him even the despite the fact that he's played pretty well Debo 76 was over salaried. I think iuk's over salaried at like Iuk versus mani at 58. I want mani by a pretty significant margin honestly so like Sorry, Emmanuel sanders I would say to me. It's mostly just kittle. So maybe i'm a bit lower on them than you might than you might be just because like I their hatred of Garoppolo and hatred of throwing the football scares me away from guys So I think might be a bit over salaried for their roles Um, I think it comes down to the fact like I think this game has the potential to be more competitive than Some of the other games down in like the the garbage range. So outside the top five Um six and a half points is not enough for me to Auto assume especially on the road with the time change That it's that the 49ers just floor the jaguars who have been pretty scrappy um, so it was more a matter of like I don't want to run out of towards kittle because it's like, oh, they're they're just gonna run the ball They're gonna play from ahead too much Um, I think the passing efficiency is pretty much a lock So I'm kind of setting myself up for a sound bite of like jimmy garoppolo being terrible But kittle is very much in play. I think iuk is in play because Receiver we have michael gallop, but I don't really feel good about anybody else in the 5000 range Like to the point where I would say Yeah, I'm cool playing them in my in like a single lineup. So I want to get back up to the 6000 range I think brandon iuk is not significantly worse than some other options there. So I think he would typically be someone I would overlook until I look closer at this team I don't think Go ahead. Sorry. No, I don't think I'm there with diva, which I know is kind of a running joke at this point, but um I prefer other games of course and like amari cooper to diva samuel, but Right. He's like I fought you on diva was because he's getting a 30% target shirt He's not getting that anymore. So I don't mind I don't mind not fighting you on that one. Yeah He's getting all the running back carries So I think We're both like kittle sounds like we're both pretty cool with waller to some degree. Yeah, I'd have kittle over waller but I think I I think the real changes like I think iuk is is enough I just wish there was somebody on the jaguars. I could bring it back with Yeah, I don't think there is either. Uh, james ronson is banged up again. Everybody else sucks So I agree. I think it would be like kittle as a one-off Basically, do you prefer iuk or a manual sanders? I think I prefer brain and iuk. Do you want to do a bet head to head? No No, I Oh So we could have got one Can I can I do a bet on like dearness johnson versus? No, never mind No, I'll do a bet if if nick chubb sits i'll take a bet which one what do you want? No, I was just that's gonna make a joke because you basically made him sound like the lock of the week If nick chubb can't go he's pretty close Sorry, I value productive productive players and dearness johnson happens to be one Speaking of productive players Let's talk about two a tongue of my loa the dolphins are playing this week in a plus match up and the jet's defense is getting Shredded recently. Uh, they're now dead last by number of fires to schedule adjusted defensive metrics And that led to the dolphin salaries getting jacked way up Jalen waddle sixty seven hundred dollars. Micah sickie is sixty three. Those are not value salaries So we have to decide if there is enough juice to justify those very high salaries This is the third time to a tongue of a loa has played In a game against actually it's his fourth. Um, the fourth time he has played in a game against a softer defense Three of his six darts this year were against top six past defenses by number fires metrics The other three were against teams outside the top 20 that doesn't include baltimore So he didn't start that game, but he played in it. So I'll factor that in look at those three games against Teams outside the top 20 toa is at point two four passing net expected points per drop back That is despite playing with a broken finger for one of them And it's also a key split because davante parker did not play any of those games and they still managed to be pretty efficient in those So that's a plus The problem is that neither waddle nor get sickie has gotten a lot of high leverage looks in those games They're both at 1.3 deep targets per game Get sickie has 18 percent of the red zone targets waddles at nine percent get sickie did have a hundred yards in Uh, one of the games he had 85 and another we had 115 85 snarred to 100 in those two games Waddle had at least 60 in all three of them But they do seem to have somewhat muted ceilings because they're not getting a lot of downfield work I think i'm here with get sickie at 63 I think waddles over salaried despite the good matchup. I i'm having a hard time with him But I want to ask you at least Do you worry about upside with waddling get sickie or as a matchup plus the overall usage good enough to overcome that for you? um, I think that there are just better situations For me to want to go to I think a sickie salary is a bit Too much for me. I want to find a way to get back up To the kittle range to the waller range. We haven't even talked about mark andrews. I've kind of pretended like he's not on a slate It's just because of that game. I don't like so much but get sickie like Find me 400 to get the darren waller. I think is is where I am with get sickie And as much as I like to and want to root for him. I don't really perceive this being Like the best offense for the week or really like a top five offense So I don't see a whole lot of interest in in jail and waddle and it's kind of weird because Like over the years moved on the show Like upper six range is like where we really dig into receivers and like this guy's like his role is too good for the salary um, we're kind of playing that like bounce back regression game that kind of stuff, but I don't really see it in case to get the jail and waddle in this particular matchup. So I'm probably not going to have any Dolphins this week. I wanted to ask you about myos gaskin who I already know what you're going to say but Probably gonna rate out well enough and the optimizers again. Should he I'm just saying he's probably going to in four games of no muck muck brown. He is at 58 and a half yards and scrimmage per game What is that Like you're probably right But Ew Ew It's so gross I mean, I'm with you. I'm at like Yeah No, no, no, no No, no, I want yards. I want touchdowns. Yeah, I don't want myos gaskin. Yeah, he's like a top six value everywhere Should he be? I should he be It's like you're mad at me now Well Well, you're always mad at me. I feel like I'm always angry. Uh, I think I'm hiring gasiki than you are I think the takeaway that I've had from our discussion is that I need to Like I was looking into some lower salary tight ends like, you know, you mentioned earths I think he's interesting at least uh adam traubens 48 And I think traubens role is good enough to be like a consideration for dfs But when I can instead I mean dan arnold to it 54 is whatever Um, but I think I do need to make sure I'm getting to kelsey kittle waller gasiki More than I thought I did initially I think I need to be higher than I was That's my takeaway. Welcome to the club Indeed indeed Joining you there whether for this week nothing too concerning potential rain for the browns lions game potential Rain for the bears ravens game wind for browns lions like 12 miles per hour. That's fine. It's whatever Bill's colts is 11 miles per hour titans texans is 11 and cowboy cheese is 12 Nothing of concern right now. I would just check back on sunday to make sure nothing has changed with those games Let's move now to our position by position breakdown Based on the salaries over at fandall.com brandon who you got a quarterback for week number 11 i'ma go with dak prescott 8400 is the salary kansas city's 24th against the past according to number fires adjusted Metrics dak has played one past defense outside the top 20 He had 296 yards and two touchdowns for 0.79 passing that expected points per drop back against that team That's about seven times the nfo average, which is 0.11 First the other bottom half defense, which was 19th 238 yards three touchdowns 0.47 passing that expected points per drop back So about four times as efficient. I think he's the only quarterback. I really cannot overthink I think I have him just a tinge above patrick mahomes who is my second love, which again I know these aren't like The craziest quarterback loves, but it's still a good quarterback week We have guys who can get to 30 and I don't think they're going to come from like below the 75 and below range Just based on what we're looking at down there unless ross like comes back to life. Maybe he needs some nano bubbles, but burrow I was going to say burrow is the exception. I think he's the one guy I will get to I mentioned him For an upcoming segment for the fandal hurry up With t. Higgins is like kind of a value stack. I like that this week But my homes, I mean look like the other the other quarterbacks have flaws For erin rogers, I think the game has passed being underwhelming For kyler and ross its health and the game being underwhelming Um Like I just I think it's I think it's these two dallas is 13th and passing a dot face But 27th and yards per target allowed on actual downfield passes so They might try to stifle the the downfield pass but not be that successful at it Uh, but I think dak again is my number one Yeah, I think I have mahomes by a hair over dak because he's at home whereas Prescott is is outside, which is not typically the case. That's the only thing I have against dak though Literally the only thing like I tried to I tried to nitpick, but I looked at like they've Historically had some funky home road splits, but like this year Dak on the road is at 0.28 passing that expected points per drop back That's still a leak. Like that's one of the best barks with football. He's stupid good. So I tried to nitpick Um, the chief defense has gotten better, but they've done that against taylor hynicki daniel jones jordan love Derek Carr Dak is a different beast. So I have the same loves as you dak press cop hatch from homes I have my home is the slightest bit above So like for our head to head i'm going to my homes for tournaments This might be one of the few times we're actually doing at roster a dictate where I go at quarterback Because I was checking out some early stuff and dak wasn't too high And if that continues to be the case, I will pivot and go dak Over my homes for like a single entry type tournament, but I think they're the the top two guys this week I am steadily increasing my inclination towards joe burrow might get there. He might be three I think he's josh alan, but like I don't know. Yeah, it's it's it's burrow and alan is the only other quarterbacks I think I would even roster Yeah and burrow or uh alan I think Might only be someone I get to if it's like hey, I Have some extra salary and I've only played my homes and yeah dak and like Just give me the ability to get up, but sure. I don't think I want to prioritize that Okay, so let's move now to running back. What'd you got there? I'm actually gonna start with joe mixon at 76 I think running back is really good at the top but also in the mid-range and I don't want to overlook that with with a lack of value at receiver and Not so much a lack of value at tight end, but The need for me to want to pay up. I'm gonna Keep all that in mind and not recommend christian mccaffrey and I'll instead start with joe mixon at 76. I think mixon's at a really good spot And then games where he's played at least half the snaps He's averaged 23.8 adjusted opportunities per game, which is pretty good um It feels like it's mccaffrey and like dara cannery and then everyone else anyway and that in that category I'm sure jim could tell me very specifically where that stacks up, but He has asked me do you want it? Sure, go ahead. So for uh, relevant backs on the main slate this week mixon ranks 11th In that department, what's your relevant sample for him? Well Uh, eight full games. What do you have? Might have in games with half. Yeah, we walked off the same game then. Um But that does include like small sample james connor. That does include small sample dearness johnson Oh, yeah, I'm sure it does So like, you know, I would rank him higher than that. I think he's in play this week too Yeah, uh 60 of the team's red zone carries 26 of their overall opportunities in those games Vegas is below average in key rushing metrics against running backs. I know you pointed out that they're pretty good and schedule adjusted numbers overall, but um, I think In just the running back stuff, they're not that worrisome and again, it gives me balance with some upside for mixon And then again, I want to allocate salary to receiver and tight end So I wanted to be fair and not go overboard with my first love at running back. My second love at running back is going to be age of dylan. I think it's just Too too easy 51 snap rate last week even with Aaron johns playing They've been using them all season We don't really have to assume like we don't have to guess so what what the role is going to be Minnesota is 30th and rushing net expected points per carry allowed to running backs 29th and rushing success rate Allowed to backs. He's actually been a more efficient rusher than Aaron Jones. So you got like that My third love i'm going to stick with david munk umery I don't want to talk myself out of an 85 snap rate for a back who Within his first game Returning in his first game with a viable I would say we could consider killio herbert like a viable rusher before then He got just sent to the ether. Um, they gave david munk umery an elite snap rate then he's got the buy There's no real reason to think that he won't play 80 percent of the snaps again this week Ran 19 routes had two targets in that game. I know the passing efficient or passing volume and passing efficiency might not be great, but Um, I like you're pretty much guaranteed a fantastic workload. Yeah, that's why i have munk umery and my list still too despite You know, we we ranked him. I thought you might have taken him out No, I ranked him below a lot of guys, but that's based on contingencies of if Nick chubb doesn't play which I think he will of if clad edwards e-layer isn't actually which I think he will be Like most likely scenario is that ceh and chubb both play You know, that's true. The david munk umery is going to be my favorite guy down here So, uh, same reasonings for you just stupid reds and work and both more could stop the rush But like this snap rate at $6,800 is hard to ignore aj dylan also one of my loves overlapping with you there Vikings 29th against the rush dylan 128 yards last week 56 red zone share like His salary for his workload should be 8 to 85 somewhere in there any 7,000 So just you know, he's pretty close to lock button for me. Dalvin is my top love for this week green bay Is uninterested I would say in stopping the rush. They ranked 27th there Dalvin is at 29 adjusted opportunities per game in his full games with 119 yards per game 45 red zone share I think you just stack up those two running backs in that one game And get a game stack there ignore potential passing efficiency weird stuff for a divisional game and just ride elsewhere for your pass catchers So let's move now to wide receiver brandon. What do you have there? Well, because i'm okay saving some salary at running back and building around those guys who I think are all under salary to some degree I allowed myself to recommend tyreek hill at 85 He has the top 90th percentile value In my model. So accounting for salary is still the best play from a stealing standpoint, which is not surprising High eight art receiver at home in a game with a high total tight spread That's probably jim's checklist. Although I feel like maybe I don't know a jim's checklist. Sorry anymore Um, dallas doesn't really limit the downfield passes as much as they might try to Um, and again, I want to prioritize him with the mid-level value at running back My second love though Lots of names in the 7000 range to like, but I want to be fair and be realistic here Especially if I'm planning dak in my home. This is my primary quarterbacks So I'll go with t higgins at 65 from week five on with higgins back Um, but you know fully accounting for jamar chase being their number one. Higgins still has a 24 target share Um walk chase is at 27 percent. I don't actually know if that's the right orientation, but um Higgins, right? I think you did 24. I think you I think the two in the four were in the right order. Thank you Yeah, I'm flipped around on like the camera orientation So I'm I'm a podcaster not really a video person video boy. Yeah, I'm not a video boy. Um Higgins is averaging 2.2 downfield targets that pass the traveling at least 16 yards from line of scrimmage Uh one one red zone target per game in that five game sample There's a flurry in ceiling for higgins at a reasonable salary in a game that I like and my third glove while. Yes I'm gonna say I want tight ends and receivers at the high end. I think there's one good play in the value range of receiver and I'm gonna let you have him Um, so I'm gonna say brandon. I I think that I use roll still good For the salary within a game where his team should be efficient throwing the ball and he's got a good like red zone roll Um 21 target share the passing game is a kettle back That might be six targets. I still think that's like enough at 6 000 just because of what is below him I don't like there's nothing that really appeals to me and that's been the case for weeks now So I think the passing efficiency should just be kind of locked in Um against the team that's 27th against the pass. I just don't want I don't want to write off the 49ers entirely Sure, uh with higgins. I thought about him too. I know I've not been as I've been more lukewarm on him I am higher on him now than I've been I think the entire year. So I will use mid 65 My concern previously is that he was not getting deep targets, but now he is so I would use higgins as well My first love is overlapping with yours entirely kill He's similar to my homes where the cowboys are an aggressive defense Which is good for wide receivers because we've seen cadarius tony antonio brown dj more keen on and chris godwin All go for 100 plus yards Against this defense and tony has some overlap with tyreek hill So like I think that that's kind of a nice thing to see tony going off there hill's target share is at 27% I think he's amazing at 85 don't overthink it. We'll go tyreek hill My second love bumping down is manual sanders at $5,800 the role for him may have been overstated before but He's $5,800 in a potentially competitive game In games with the awesome knocks playing manny's target share does go down to 17 percent But he still has a 30 deep target share in those games The colts are a team that's beatable through the air. They're pretty good against the rush Which they mean just plays into buffalo's hands or they're probably going to throw this ball Like 50 times. It's not a projection But like 50 is very realistic for this team in this game So I think that uh, I want to get to a manual sanders at 58 the guy you alluded to I think was michael gallp, right? Okay, michael gallp $5,400 in the two games. He has played Seven and five targets didn't play the full game In the first game there did play pretty late last week. I think they were trying to work him up Despite the block. They let him run a lot of routes. Um, they wanted him to get worked up Yeah, you know some things at him make him make him worry a bit just get him get him peed off I don't know if I can say the other way. So I'll say peed Um, I think that he's a low sourd access to a good game And I want to do that when I can and gallop gets me that realistically could do very well It's not a great floor, but like if we're talking Michael gall versus like marquez valdez scantling gallop has the better role and I would say that pretty definitively So to me gallop the best, uh lower salary guy, but I do like manny as well as moved to tight end What's you going with there? I'll go with george kiddle. Um, I really I know I've said it a thousand times, but I'm I'm going to build around the the better tight ends this week With kelsey kiddle and waller not really going to play mark the andrews, which could burn me, but I can't play them all I think kiddles back to sort of the the kiddle of old Um, he's tied with dallas goddard for the league lead in yards per route run among tight ends Again, I expect this team to be efficient. So And really the the salary is a bit too low Especially whenever for me when I view him close to like Mike sicki, I think that that is enough to make me feel like the salary is a bit too low Um, but if I am if I if I really have to go down, um, the the salary range to tight end I think it's just going to be zacher. It's regardless of who the quarterback is Uh, but in two games with codder murray including a game where urch played just 49 of the snaps He has a 15 target share and a 40 red zone target share I mean we've got 20 of the targets in two games without deandre hopkins You know, I don't like this game overall, but I understand how it could be good the total's high Obviously that means something so for 5 000 That's appealing Yeah, I had adam trotman. It's one of my loves I do still think that he's my favorite of the lower salary guys given that he has 17 target share in two games with touchdown trevor, but I'm gonna go with george kiddle and mike sicki going to change some gears here Uh kiddle the same reasons you mentioned like the yardage upside is very good The play quality play is very good. I like the matchup for him. I think the script is totally fine So I think the kiddle uh, would be my one with gasicki being two I think i'm hiring gasicki than you are he's 63 to dollars But like a buck 15 in one game with two way no divante parker 85 in another Seven targets last week will ignore what happened on those seven targets didn't happen. Um I think two it should be efficient in this game matchup is terrible the jets are hideous So i'll go gasicki And if you need to say salary trotman, but like I'd like to get into the gasicki plus range personally Do you have trotman over earths? Good question. I'm not sure. Okay. I was just curious. I think they're very similar Like both guys could get you 15 which is kind of what you need for this this bargain salary and just a tight end in general So either either is fine. No objection to earths if that's what you're asking Uh defense. What are you going to there? Um, I I was trying to go away from the the team you have but I don't know if I can I think it's just the best defensive play of the week and that's washington at 3500 They're the best value um in in my numbers and according to pro football focus. They have the uh third best defensive line matchup Among the main slate teams Like yeah, I know that cam newton's going to be an upgrade But I don't think it's enough to to go away from a a team that is Capable, I mean, I know their defense has been not great, but yeah, I think the Unless you're really willing to Maybe play like houston against the titans or something I think that this is easily the standout team below 4 000 I think it's worth noting that the pff thing you you mentioned adjust the fact that chase young will not play Like that accounts for that the metric that you're citing So that's even when chase young being taken out. It's still a plus advantage Just because caroline is often the line is so bad like I talked about that's why I was on the cardinals last week Was because they lost uh, they lost roving. They lost paradis like they lost a lot of dudes And so I didn't see a situation which they played. Well, they did to their credit But like that's might not be sustainable. So I agree cam does elevate the panthers, but 3500 dollars You know, I'm gonna take that for sure other defenses. I would at least like toss out there I will have a non zero number of canton city lineups in ones where I don't use the cowboys I think the cowboys win this game potentially But like, you know, just, you know, 33 into dollars playing better weird stuff happens, whatever. Yeah, and you also yeah, that's right No, I say this that all the time But 60 percent of fandal points for defenses come from sacks and turnovers not points allowed Like that's not really how it works And if you have a lot of passing volume a lot a lot of plays that just leads to more chances for sacks Turnovers pick sixes fumble sixes things like that Bengals defense I'm okay with yeah, 3600 dollars uh facing the raiders if I want to Fully embrace the thought process that maybe the raiders get downgraded with no Henry rugs And they're kind of struggling right now. I think the under on the vegas team total might also be in play So uh, bengal's defense at 3600 dollars. I am okay with that Um Panthers defense in that washington game 4100 dollars really talented defense, you know Pine keys kind of a digaffer. That's a good thing. So I think that's what I'd be looking at there is Panthers Bengals Washington sprinkles of Kansas City, but trying to avoid it if I can't Can you play any Texans at 3000? Absolutely not. Okay. Yeah, I mean That is all that we have here for today brandon any final thoughts for you before we send off the good people to assemble They're beautiful beautiful lineups. Well, if it's anything like recent weeks We're going to find a lot of information by tomorrow that changes everything we talked about But I do think we covered things as as is right now and yeah It's very evident. There's one game to stack and even that game has some has the failure but You know Really really I would say rank the games and that way you're not just kind of playing what the optimizers say Sit back look into these like even because it's just the top five games if you want to look in those games say Which of these games is too popular or not popular enough because some of them are going to be one of each It's right the games but also rank out the running backs I think that's the other thing for this week rank out them decide how you want to prioritize them because There are a lot of good ones for this week and keep that in mind That is all that we have here for today on the heat check But as always a lot of good stuff coming your way for the rest of this week Tom vecchio has you covered at nba and hl bfs with the daily iso and the daily deak Austin swain got your cover for ufc for this week coming up on friday No pga next week. I'll be back after the new year But still plenty of good stuff here We also have a recap podcast every monday to wrap things up get that by subscribing to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Wherever you get your podcast. Don't forget the listener league fan dual comm slash league slash listener league five dollar entry Three entries max. There is no rake fan dual comm slash league slash listener league brandon If people have questions for you on twitter, where can they find you there? Matt gondola 13 gd ula 13 and i'm at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your lineups We'll talk to you once again on monday to wrap it all up. This has been the heat shack fantasy podcast powered by number fire