 Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. The following is a presentation of TFNN. Trade what you see. With Larry Pezzavento call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618 Now Larry Pezzavento Okay, looking good Billy Ray, feeling good Lewis. Well we have a proverbial debacle going over there in the bond market folks. Down almost two-fold handles on the treasury bonds and one-and-a-half or so. In the notes Bill Ackman came out and said that he was heavily short the bonds and for the life of me I don't understand why someone as smart as he is and believe me folks he is no dummy. Why in the world would he come out and tell everybody that he's short the treasury bonds he gave the reasons for it and why would he do something like that? You know you don't poke the tiger, you don't poke the bear. I don't mean bearishness, I mean the bear because if you make them mad I mean do you think that they're going to be embarrassed or something? I don't understand that but again I'm just a technician so I don't really know but we've broken down within just a point or two of the old lows we made three-and-a-half months ago. As you know I've been bearish this market for a very long time and I will continue to be bearish because higher interest rates are on the way there's no question about it. By the way our guest today on the show will be none other than our good friend Stan Harley and Stan has always some great stuff to talk about and we'll be able to do it. I want to thank everybody that showed up yesterday. We had a good day, made some money but came so close in gold and also in what was the other one we were looking at. We had one other one that was right on the cusp and we just missed it. It was the bonds. We tried to short the bonds and we missed it by two ticks in bonds and 20 cents in gold of shorting both of those and we missed it. We had a good time. The responses were good. The main thing that people were interested in and I'll go into that in just a little bit. We went through five hours of trading folks and I will not do five hours again. I might do three but not five. I'll tell you why. I was worn out and I didn't recover very well and I didn't sleep well last night because I don't know what the reason was but today when I woke up I decided I said, I said this is going to be the day where I'm not going to do a lot of trading. I said because this is, I'm just not feeling very good and then if you look at the chart up there in the far right hand corner that I just posted that is the NASDAQ folks, a four-hour chart going back over the last several weeks. Do you see that A, B equals CD pattern there today? You see the three little bars on the end here? Those are four-hour bars folks. That means that it was there for 12 hours. It couldn't get below the number and it hit the number exactly. Exactamundo and that's when it started to mark it up and they've rallied. I mean, I think the last time I saw, well the S&Ps down just a little bit but everything else is still looking pretty good. Now if we get below that then all bets are off but let's take a look at what really happened with the E-mini S&P today when we were doing the same thing in the Treasury bond. The NASDAQ bear with me folks here. This has got to get through this. But here is the, we're going to get this up. Now this is a four-hour chart. Same thing that we were looking at in the NASDAQ. Now we're going to look at the E-mini S&P and you'll notice today's low to the tick exactly 1.618 of the 382 move down to here and 61% of the retracement that we made back here two and a half weeks ago. This is super important folks because one would expect a rally here. Now look at this. We've come down from 46, what was it? 46.35 all the way down to 45.10 was the low. Now we have just a little bit of rally so far just 27 points but going below that now would be just very, very bearish. Whether that's going to continue or not we're going to wait and see but that's what we're paying close attention to here today as we're watching some of these things here unfold. Okay and I want to share a couple of other things that I think are important and the big thing that we did on the show and this was worth, to me, worth the price of admission and those of you that attended all of my shows said without doubt this was the highlight of the five hours and all we did folks because we couldn't catch everything we were just looking for good patterns and I'm just going to post what happened today and this happens to be in the natural gas but we did this on so many things yesterday just to prove the validity of the 382 pattern that that was the highlight from my perspective and also from many of you but you'll notice here this is today's action you see the first 382 retracement here there's your second 382 retracement here there's your third 382 retracement here I mean folks I have to do a tiny bit more search but from research but from my perspective this thing is hands down the easiest and most accurate thing I've ever seen in all the years I've been doing this and you know it's just truly amazing that we've got something like this to work with and it was really a lot of fun we had a hundred charts that we gave out that I've saved over the past oh my goodness I've been doing this since Tom for three and a half, four years now and I've been doing seminars with Tom for 15 or 16 years and so it was really quite exciting to see these we couldn't trade them all because we were seeing them in hindsight because it was so much to do folks it's five hours non-stop and I'm just not capable of doing that I mean we take a break for water other than that we were in there you know and when you're trading you know it's not expanding the energy I'm trying to teach and so it was a tough gig but five hours is too much I think I can do three hours in a heartbeat but five hours all by myself is a little bit more difficult than I really want to do so I'm going to lay off on that again if I do do another one next year I'll probably do maybe three hours maybe break it up like two hours one day and two hours the next that might work but five hours straight it's just a tough one for me because it's just a little one that's just too much folks let me show you what's going on here in the market here for Treasury bonds to me this is the chart of the day I'm bringing it up here because this is really an important chart and it's an important chart for a lot of different reasons this tells you oh Larry come on Jake I got to get back with you buddy to find out what in the world happens to these charts they just disappear on me and then I don't get to show them in here and it's frustrating as all the GPs and I don't like to do that okay there's where we are right there you'll see what we're looking at here is a market there's where it was supposed to rally you see it didn't rally here and that's what happened today the market gave up boom and remember they've known about this Fitch thing this downgrade whatever they want to call it from AAA to AA is just pretty much down there there'll be AA until there's a big collapse somewhere in the world and you'll see how quickly they come to the Treasury bond market but we get down much lower than here folks we have broken the three month rally and that is extremely extremely bearish because we could only rally up to that 136th level and then we've been heading down you know ever since you can see these last few days on this for our chart have been quite bad let's take a little break 877-927-6648 currencies, commodities and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex report Teddy Kegstad breaks down the Forex markets every Monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, Forex, stocks and options Teddy releases his weekly Tiger Forex report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs including the dollar index, the euro dollar, pound dollar dollar Swiss, dollar yen as well as many more and he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30 year T-bonds as they both influence Forex markets tremendously when you sign up for the Tiger Forex report you also gain instant access to Teddy's 60 minute webinar archive he just hosted Forex strategies and fundamentals what is behind the Tiger Forex report for all the details and start your 30 day Tiger Forex report subscription today visit the front page of TFNN.com TFNN Educating Investors and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability newsletter Steve's award winning newsletter Mastering Probability is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon sign up for Steve's market newsletter Mastering Probability and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free at TFNN all our newsletters come with a 30 day money back guarantee so you have absolutely nothing to worry about visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability 30 days risk free today TFNN Educating Investors stay ahead of the game with Tom's real-time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out market insights provides the edge you need to navigate the markets with confidence ready to join the ranks of successful traders head over to TFNN.com and subscribe to market insights today don't miss out on this opportunity to supercharge your trading results market insights comes with a 30 day money back guarantee for all new subscribers so you have nothing to risk don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game head over to TFNN.com right now to join the thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter market insights firsthand TFNN Educating Investors okay folks I've posted the chart of the flashcards that we gave out and folks really like those basically goes through the 12 patterns that we look at we've got six buys and six sells we went through the PowerPoint presentations showing how they worked at all it was pretty nice folks so today we have Apple earnings coming out and I heard an interesting comment today by one of the more famous people on CNBC I'm not going to get amazed Amy's a young man he's very bright I've met him one time and he certainly knows what he's doing but he made a comment that if Warren Buffett Warren Buffett said this to him supposedly we're going to secondhand knowledge but Buffett said to him that if you gave everybody that has bought an Apple product $10,000 in cash but the only stipulation is that they could never buy an Apple product again he said most of the people would not take the $10,000 if you start believing that kind of stuff folks I have two shares of the Brooklyn Bridge waiting but today we've got Apple earnings coming out Apple's earnings how can you knock this company folks it's a trillion dollar company it's got great products I'm not saying that I'm just saying when you hear stuff like that you got to worry about it that's when I hear someone like Bill Ackman come out and say that you know he's got this huge yesterday he said it and he said it again today he's got this huge position in short treasuries why would he do that not good he knows that he's a smart man he's one of the better poker players on the tour on the World Series tour he's really a good player so that concerns me that he's able to do that so we'll be following the earnings here by the way someone is asking about Qualcomm earnings I don't follow the stock but I saw just a little while ago that it was down 9% why I have no clue why it was down at that level the main thing that we're watching today is what's happened with this the S&P low and also the NASDAQ low being spot on if we go below those folks there's only one way you can describe what the market's going to do and that means it's going to go down really big because you're looking higher interest rates you're at a major major spot and that would really be a really really negative thing to to pay a close attention to why things are happening the way that they are but that doesn't look like that's going to happen right now market's still holding up really well as a matter of fact my my assumption here and believe me you know how that means how you spell assumption assume but what you're watching here is a fact that we've got something here where if the market rallies quietly now for three days we got here Thursday we got Friday say we rally today and tomorrow Monday Tuesday and everybody's looking at that chart and some people even our chartists will look at it but if you get a quiet three-day rally there and this is what I'll be working on over the weekend if you just get a quiet three-day rally maybe up to a magical number like yes Johnny I know it's 3-8-2 then that's going to be the one that you want to be watching you know really closely because it's going to be really really interesting but we'll see all of this coming out but we've had a very very emotional week today's low when I saw that low I said wow I said this is this is truly amazing that this market could hold up given the fact what was happening in the bond market and I said I know there's no way I want to be short here is what I said because I said this is not this is not what I want to do when you got really really bad news and the market doesn't go down no no no no you don't want to have anything wrong with that one of my favorite books folks I've mentioned this several times is a book by Bernard Baroup called my own story and he tells the things how to read a tape and he says like we just talked about when everybody is bearish the market has only one way to go and that is up and when everybody's bullish it only has one other way to go and that is down that's just the way it is all we do as technicians is to measure some of these ways and see how whether they're supposed to you know when we were looking at the Nasdaq a long time ago before it had this a monumental break to the downside I want to cover gold too here before we get back to our good friend uh Stan Harley but let me get this up here with the with the Nasdaq again because it was the one that was really interesting I want you to see going back about three and a half weeks ago when we were making a big ABCD there I'm trying to get it there Al hang on a minute buddy maybe this will be it ah no it's I'm going to try one more time and then I'm just going to give up the ghost and not do it then we'll move over to the gold ah come on uh okay let me get it up here just a second folks there's nothing worse than being a technician hold on this is where we want to be you'll see where we were several uh about seven days ago when we were making that high up in here in the S&P okay now we come down and hit this and we're looking for a little three-day rally if the three-day rally doesn't come and this rolls over look out because that's where the uh pedal will hit the metal as they say in the trade so let's keep our close eyes on that one alright now one other question someone asked and I can't answer this question it's how how is the public going to react to the earnings now I didn't want to say that is a pretty uh vague answer because we first of all you don't know who who is long and who well everybody's long because everybody owns Apple but there will have to be a huge surprise and I don't believe Apple uh surprises very often I think it was a 27 out of 28 reports that they had that was always bullish I mean you want to fade odds like that I don't think so no no no you don't really need to do that all I'm saying here today is that we hit some flat out major support I mean just as clear as a bell and going below that would not be a very good thing to be looking at so that's pretty much it I hope that's fair enough to what I'm looking for and I remember folks when I do this folks I am a short-term pattern recognition trader and I rely on one pattern above all else and that's a B equal CD when I have a B equal CD that gives me the tiny bit of an edge that I need to see whether I'm going to be right or wrong that's that's all I do and I'm pretty good at it but I've been doing it for a long time and other people can do it too but you got to practice you don't get to play in the major leagues just by walking out of high school you know you got to go to the 3A triple A ball and other stuff and you got to have coaches and all those things so you can do it but that's what we talked about yesterday on the show was that you got to keep doing it and doing it and doing it and eventually you're going to get it right because this is not rocket science what I do I'm just looking at lines on a chart either the lines older they don't that's pretty much the bottom line whether I'm going to be that way or not for a very long time I'm not sure but it's been that way for the several hundred years that I've followed these stocks and nothing's really changed in all those years sure we've got a lot of different things going on but the big thing of the day is to watch this Treasury bond market because if something happens and it should have a rally it could be a big one but I'm not saying it's going to be but when you have someone come out and make a comment like that that is not smart and if you see Bill that's what your position is keep your cards close to the best when you're playing poker you don't turn your cards around and say hey look I've got a pair of kings of course you don't no you say oh you have a droopy face you know look like I've got two seven off soon again hey we've got Stan Harley coming up folks eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight the gold report as a precious metal gold is still king it continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market the US futures market and the Shanghai gold exchange the gold report Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU HUI GDX, The Dollar, Bonds the South African Rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations the gold report new subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk subscribe to Tom O'Brien's gold report newsletter now at TFNN.com everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence this mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market to stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com when you subscribe you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavetto on stocks you need to pay attention to and 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TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has 8 different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be TFNN educating investors don't forget you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to TFNN.com then hit watch Tiger TV that's TFNN.com then hit watch Tiger TV okay we're back folks and we have Stan Harley on the line to the Harley stock market letter Stan how are you doing today I'm doing just awesome thank you you look pretty dapper there in your outfit with that beautiful tan shirt with the gold tie so tell us what we're looking at today my friend how much are we going to go 47,000 in the Dow we'll discuss that here got some got a few charts I thought I'd share with the viewers today want to kind of just frame the discussion a bit I'm expecting a major market peak in the not too distant future not tomorrow not next week not next month but down the road a bit that's what I thought we would kind of talk about here first of all let's take a look at the monthly data of the stock market and this first chart goes back to the year 1900 and what I've noted here with the purple vertical lines are the peaks in 1929 1973 2000 and it's my belief we're probably going to see a high next year that'll be about 94 years from the 1929 top 94 years in a couple of months and we need to see some things develop before that occurs it gives us some clues and that's something I'm going to discuss here in just a couple of slides okay when will you see your slides? yes are you able to see them? not yet no well let me see I think I know the problem and I can remedy that yes thank you for telling me there we go there it is okay yeah there it is sometimes I need a little reminding yeah well I do that every day so welcome to the club this is the chart I was just discussing goes back to the year 1900 and what I've shown here are the tops in 1929 1973 2000 and it's my belief that we've got a significant high coming I think it's going to come in the early part of next year and I'll share with you my reasons why but these are all major market peaks as you can see the dominant cycle on the early charts about 94 years that's Lucas number 47 times 2 99 years prior to 1929 was the peak in 1835 and then just back in time we've got increments of 94 years that have defined all the major peaks all the way back to the year 1602 the last 60 years let's focus on that for just a moment again a monthly chart here and what I'm showing in this chart Larry is a cycle that spans nominally 49 months these were coming at about 4 year intervals so many analysts and market watchers referred to this as the so called 4 year cycle and between 1960 and the year 2000 ish that was a pretty regular cycle sometimes it contracted to 3 years sometimes it expanded to 5 like between 82 and 87 and then it picked up the regular beat once again but it was quite a regular cycle and when I dump all of this into a spreadsheet and compute what's called the best fit to the day series through a technique called regression analysis it comes out to be 49 months and that was very very regular until the 2002 bottom and then from 2002 to the present i.e. for the last 20 years that cycle ostensibly disappeared and so a lot of people think well the 4 year cycle lasted and it just went away well it really didn't go away Larry it's still there but it expanded by a Fibonacci factor of 1.618 it's still the same cycle now it's 79.6 months instead of 49.2 so as you can see on the chart sometimes low to low it's 77 months sometimes 83 sometimes 80 but the regression analysis says it's 79.6 and assuming we get a modest amount of contraction expansion but it essentially comes in right in the area where it's due within one standard deviation the next recurrence is due in the May, June 2029 time frame now with that as a backdrop let's take a look at another thing another topic that you and I have discussed on the air here quite a bit and I think this is a pretty important thing and most analysts don't see it but it's the notion of translation right and left translation look at the monthly chart on the screen and notice from the October 2002 bottom all the way through the present all of the crests i.e. the high point of the monthly cycle occurred to the right of the midpoint of that cycle so for example between October of 02 and March of 09 where did the high occur it occurred in October of 2007 and with your eye you can see that's well to the right of the midpoint right translation indicative bull market structure again the next cycle into the 2015 top also right translation the next one into the February 2020 well actually no continuing further into the January high of last year also right translation bull market structure so anyone who says this is a bear market just doesn't understand what you and I are talking about right now right translation is bull market structure and until we see left translation in the monthly cycles which we have not yet seen we are still in a bull market sure are so if we see a peak in the first quarter of next year which i think is something very carefully right now we would then have the makings of left translation for the first time and left translation of course would be indicative of a looming bear market so we need to see how things develop but if we do get a high first quarter next year as i'm kind of thinking right now we might then we will definitely have left translation for the first time and that would bring on the big bear but right now the right translation factor is indicative of a continuing bull market and i think you are going to see new highs in the end of the season if we get this final high early part of next year it's my view you and i will see fewer stocks fewer ETFs moving into new high ground and that will be essentially a divergence from what occurred in january of 2022 and that's how final tops are made they are divergent structures so that at the final final cycle top there is a lessening in the number of stocks ETFs funds and so forth making new highs and i think that's what's going to happen jan this high translation left translation that was the original work of Walt Bresser wasn't it yes that's where that's the first time i became aware of it of course he published that in his book in 1991 and then Walter and i get a number of 7 hours together and he was my guest speaker when i was the president of the market analysis of southern california back in the day just a we got to pay a few bills here stay with us if you stand we got to pay a few bills we'll be right back okay you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com the opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up tfnn.com educating investors are you ready to 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Okay we're back folks speaking with Stan Harley and Harley stock market letter please continue Stan this is really great stuff. Absolutely Larry I thought we would get into the daily data and kind of drill down just a little bit more see what's going on near term there is a cycle I have found and I've tracked for decades literally it's what you see on the screen and I've shared this with you and the viewers in the past but the most dominant cycle on the stock market is the one that spans 40 slash 80 trading days 80 of course is the double of the 40 I wrote an article on this in the July 2021 issue of the foundation for the study of cycles this has been the dominant cycle for decades it will be the dominant cycle long after we're gone but and it does come and go sometimes it drifts out and then it comes back a few years ago it was not nearly as prevalent as it was in years back but now it's very prevalent once again but as you can see on the screen here the important highs in the stock market have been occurring at 80 day intervals the most recent recurrence skipped a beat or marked it with the May 2nd high perhaps and that was the modest one I just noted that the recurring pattern with an increment of 2 between the high and mid December and the one that just occurred just a couple of days ago spanned 79.6 that's the number oh by the way that was the same number on the monthly chart we were talking about a few slides ago interesting how those numbers tend to show up time and time again there's some Fibonacci math that goes into it and that's where it comes from it doesn't just fall from the sky like man from heaven markets go up and down cycles have their root derivation in Fibonacci Lucas numbers I have found in ratios and those are just mathematical formulas that define randomness that's all they are nothing mystical about it but that's where cycles come from so here we have an 80 day cycle I think we topped out here just a few days ago the S&P and the New York comp topped on July 27 the NAS topped the next day and the Dow topped August 1st but what we have here is an 80 day high to high cycle and I think we are going to undergo a correction that's going to span several weeks and you're going to see some consolidation of the recent gains probably more sideways than hard down because I still think the dominant trend is northbound into early next year so once we see the overbought condition worked off here in a few weeks I think you'll have the technical underpinnings once again re-established for the next move higher and yes I do think you're going to see a number of the benchmark indices in record high ground the S&P and the Dow right now and the NAS are not that far from all time highs if that weren't enough let's take a look at this next chart and I'll come back to the prior one but this is another thing that tells me folks we're in a bull market these are the big three European industries the big three European stock indices the United Kingdom's FTSE 100 the German DAX and the France's CAC 40 the FTSE just made an all time high a couple of months ago the French CAC 40 also did the German DAX made an all time high last Friday over the long haul the big three in Europe and the North American indices i.e. USA and Canada tend to move in tandem there's a lead lag but generally speaking when you look for the major highs and lows on the charts they're coincident virtually to the day so the fact that the big three in Europe are making new all time highs that's one more technical fact in my mind in my toolkit that says the USA markets too are going to go to new highs one thing that's kind of an interesting fact I pulled this off of CNBC this is Mike Santoli's work his staff did a polling of all the major Wall Street firms just a few days ago and he found that at the average top strategist target for the S&P by year end 42.55 where are we now 4500 the median for the pros 42.50 by year end the highest high 45.75 and the lowest low 3900 so I've had my share of Mrs. and Mike as we all have but it is interesting that the top Wall Street strategists have basically been underwhelmed by the strength in the stock market underwhelmed that's the understatement of the year stand there's no question about that now we have Apple's earnings we have a question for one of our listeners about artificial intelligence do you anything about the subject matter or those stocks that are involved stand I thought maybe you might have something I have not delved into that I haven't delved into any particular issues that I think are going to exploit that so I'm really not prepared to give a good answer as we speak on the air here okay that's fair enough I can't either so I just leave it alone it's not an easy subject to talk about now Stan I wanted to ask you about the Dow Jones transportation they've been exploding over the upside also is this all part of this overall bullishness that you see absolutely let me look on my other screen at the transports and see what they're doing I didn't prepare a chart today for the transports but the transports have done well pretty much in line with the other benchmark entities right now they're up in the vicinity of their high from March of last year where they got a bit of a ways to get up to that peak that occurred on November the 2nd 2021 the high back then was 18247 and right now they're at 16455 so will the trainees get there I don't know what typically happens when tops are made you get some kind of a divergence so just to me the potential for maybe one or more of the major entities not going into the new high ground maybe the transports do not maybe they have their senior high for the current cycle a little bit early for me to make that forecast how about the bond market we have a big collapse going on in the treasuries today with spot bonds down to four handles and we were approaching those lows six or seven months ago it looks pretty almost on the charts doesn't it Stan it does I'm not a big fan of the treasury bond complex at all I think the lows interest rates and the high we saw in bonds in early 2020 a little over three years ago is probably one that's going to stand for a long time next time we talk I'll show a chart but my work is found there is a 39.8 there's that number 40 again cycle in treasury bonds that cycle last occurred in October of 81 you had 40 years to that you get the low that we saw in 2020 just take it back increments of 40 years and you'll find major pivotal terms in bonds and interest rates great work Stan we'll have you on again Stan stay safe if you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market the rocket equities and options report is a newsletter you should try Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals sign up for rocket equities and options report today with a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk for all the details and to start your subscription today visit the front page of tfnn.com tfnn educating investors you might think 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tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv okay folks I posted the chart of today's low and the s&p 500 it's also the major low in the NASDAQ if we close below that folks it's going to be very very nasty the problem is nobody's paying attention to what's going on in treasury bonds maybe they shouldn't this may be major major low I don't know but something big is about to happen years ago when the bonds collapsed stocks always followed along but this is not happening this time so we're living interesting times the old Chinese curse so let's pay attention remember folks when you're trading it's not how much money you make it's how much money you don't lose that's the key that you want to work by very very important concept but we are over a major critical level here in all of these markets the fact that we've come down for 14 days in the stock market for NASDAQ making a major bottom down in here is very very important because it's a perfect ABCD folks you just do the work yourself not only that but it stayed there for 12 hours that was for three four-hour bars I mean that's just an amazing phenomenon a lot of support there and of course it was the first one to rally and I believe it is still up on the day yes it is so that's a positive sign now if this all changes and the bond market gives up even more maybe things will change but right now it's not the key today from my perspective as a technician is if we go below those lows at 4808 in the E-mini S&P that is not going to be a good one because we only rallied 30 handles from the bottom so here again there wasn't a runaway bull market like we've had in the NASDAQ before this was just a dead cat bounce so those are some of the things that you've got to pay attention to as you look at these charts in meander's room every day because you know it's going to be very very interesting volatility has increased in everything folks so you've got to get ready and embrace it because that's the key to making money in this is finding the patterns that look the best so live every day in an attitude of gratitude and may God bless