 Fear continues to brew in the markets as Bitcoin is down about six and a half percent today The fear and greed index today is at fear, which is at 28 Which is a bit higher than where we were last week at extreme fear and at a 16 This is honestly beginning to feel a whole lot like back in when we had the crash in May Where we then consolidated for about two full months before we began our new move to the upside That same amount of days will put us basically at around the end of January for the next impulse move up Now I am still hopeful that we do get a bounce in the market this week and on today's video We will also cover some on-chain analytics that back up my theory that we still have at least one more move to the upside But first of course to start by taking a look at the charts Then we'll take a look at some on-chain analytics and close it out with some trade setups that we will be watching throughout the week So let's go ahead and dive into today's analysis Hey, what's up Jay here and welcome back to Bitcoin daily bringing you guys the best tips tutorials and ideas to help you Guys become profitable and successful investors the goal of this channel is to empower you guys the community with the knowledge and Resources to help you get your wealth up to that next level So if you guys are new to the channel, don't forget to subscribe turn on notifications and smash that like button If you have any questions about anything regarding this video drop it in the comments So let's start with the weekly chart here on Bitcoin as you can see the current price is at 46,000 around $8,900 right now currently down about 6.3% on the day and if we look back at where we closed last week You can see that we actually closed in the green. So remember I told you guys that looking back in history We've never we've rarely closed four weeks in a row in red and as far back as I could see We've never had five weeks in a row in red. Um, so we actually did end up closing in the green So we had a green weekly candle Meaning that we did not get that fourth green fourth red Meaning that we did not get that fourth red weekly candle in a row. So last week We ended up being up around 1.22% Now it has been a rough start to this week as we're already down six and a half percent on the week We opened up the week yesterday at fifty thousand dollars and ever since we've pretty much just gone down now today, we blew right past the 48,000 support and we're currently sitting around 47,000 but it keeps threatening to push down lower if we do see some pressure some self-side pressure to the downside Then a 45 is that next number to watch you guys will see that it's actually right in the pocket It's in the golden pocket here What's called the golden pocket is the Fibonacci retracement level of sixty one point eight percent So we're currently sitting at the golden pocket, which is also where the strong $42,000 support level lies. That's also where our low of the flash crash is So I'm expecting that to be the low of this pullback and I don't expect us to go any lower than that I'm expecting bounces here at this green buy area. This is green for Support green for buy there green for a lot of reasons You'll see that if we pull up the volume shelves here We do have some that support coming back in right here This is right at that forty thousand dollar mark and that's the bottom of our zone right here that we're looking at But we're hoping that we don't go below that flash crash there And that currently sits right around that forty two thousand dollar area remember that these numbers It's never exact numbers is just ranges. So that range there is anywhere between 44 all the way down to about forty thousand dollars if we were to not hold there then this green area we'll quickly turn into a red area and Then that's when we can see a read a retest of these yearly lows down here Where you know, we could potentially retest at thirty to twenty eight thousand dollar area Now I don't think that will happen But it is a possibility if we were to lose forty two thousand dollars So remember just like I told you guys fifty two thousand was very very important number to hold for Bitcoin It's the same thing at forty two forty two is a very very important number for Bitcoin to hold because if we fall below it We're threatening some scenarios where we can drop back down to twenty thousand dollars as long as we stay above it Then we should see the price bounce back up and we could Retest and reclaim these all-time highs up here. So this is definitely something to keep an eye on now another Important thing that we're watching here is the fifty day Weekly moving average you can see that we're currently Testing that fifty day weekly moving average right now as we speak if we look back through time You will see that this fifty day has always held up even during this flash crash back in May You can see that we tested it back here in June We tested it two more times back here in July Before getting that bounce back up in September when we had a few red weeks You can see that we almost touched it We didn't touch it but we got close to it again And the last time that we actually fell below that fifty day weekly moving average was back here And this was back in March of 2020 when when the pandemic first came out And you can see that we reclaimed it very very quickly here the last time we lost it before that You would have to look all the way back into the bear market in 2008 So that should tell you how important this Fifty week moving average is here and why we need to hold above it on This weekly close final thing that we're watching here as we continue to drop You'll see that in the RSI we continue to print lower lows lower highs So until we break this pattern here on the RSI prices will not be able to go up So we need this to break above this resistance area that we've been in back since Our move started back in October. Well, actually back since we peaked in October So you'll see back earlier this year that we were kind of in this same thing here Where we continued to set lower highs just over and over and over Till we finally broke out to the upside and that's when we began this new Movement here all the way up to set the new all-time highs. So we're looking for something similar here. We need to Basically break above this and set a new high above this level right here because right now We've just been setting up new lower highs just over and over and over So we need to break that pattern that'll help, you know Put us back on track for in the next move up and that'll also help get the price moving back in the right direction All right, so let's look at some on-chain analytics The first thing that we're going to be looking at here is balance on Exchanges the balance on exchanges is usually a sign on whether or not there's a lot of money going into exchanges to sell Or coming off of exchanges to hold for a long time So you'll see that back in May through July. There was over a hundred and sixty eight Thousand bitcoins put onto exchanges to sell and trade during that time that of course caused this not only this huge drop but the Accumulation and the Negotiation period that took over two months before we finally got a move back to the upside in Comparison right now during this drop here. You will see that it's going in the opposite direction 46,000 Bitcoin has actually been taken off of exchanges because one there's more Bitcoin being sent off of exchanges than onto exchanges So that means that people are planning on holding because they expect prices to rise And to this less selling pressure that we can expect going forward here, which is why I am still bullish here and Expecting another move to the upside So that brings us to the next chart that we're looking at here, which is the net transfer volume from and to Exchanges this is tracked with a seven-day EMA and gives us an idea of whether there's more Bitcoin going on to Exchanges or off of exchanges So it's very similar to the last thing that we just looked at and you can see here It's telling us the same thing here during May through July the net inflow Dominance from May through July net inflow was dominant every time that this goes like this into the green That means that that's people putting Bitcoin into exchanges right now You'll see that we're actually towards the bottom of this right now We're not at a level like we saw here back in August But right now net outflow is what's dominant if we look at the chart that shows us Holders in profit who are realizing profits. You can see that it is also declining This means that there are less and less people interested in taking profits at this time that are already in profit So again, let's sell pressure there from those in profit. Alright, so next thing we're looking at here Is the futures open interest? This basically means leveraged traders people trading on derivatives So when we're up here above this red line as you can see here that usually causes more Volatility in the market that whenever there's a big move in either direction It can liquidate a lot of traders, which is why we get huge drops so you can see all these circled here We were way over leveraged and we had big drops due to that in this one It was green because we had more people Shorting then going long at that point which caused a big impulse move to the upside and then these two again We're over leveraged which caused big moves to the downside Including the recent one that we just had that has dropped us all the way back down here So although future open interest is currently back on the rise We're still in a pretty safe level where we should not expect a big cascade of liquidation So like we did on Friday two weeks ago So we shouldn't see another flash crash like we saw on Friday at least not at the moment So finally we're gonna look at four different indicators that have been pretty Consistent at calling the tops throughout all the bull runs that Bitcoin has had the first indicator here is called the our Hottle ratio you can see here that with this indicator anytime is hit the red that it's been the peak of the bull cycle You can see hit the red here again. This was back in December 2013 going into 14 once again back in December when we topped out in the 2017-18 bull market and as you can see right now, we're not in the red We have not even really been that close to hitting the red This is one of the most reliable indicators that I watch and according to this We're still good and we're still due for another run up So our next indicator that we're looking at here is called the advanced and VT signal now Just like the previous one this one here has hit the red line here every time that the cycle has peaked You can see back in 2013-14 it hit the red line back in 2017-18 at the peak of the price it again crossed this red line this year in January You can see that it got close to the red line But it did not cross and we have yet to cross that red line like we have in previous cycles So our next indicator we're looking at here is the MVRVZ score What this score does it uses blockchain analysis to identify periods where Bitcoin is extremely over or under valued Relative to its fair value now This one has not been as precise as the previous two indicators that we mentioned before this one indicates that Bitcoin is overvalued once it's in the red here But you can see back in 2013 it caught the top a little early because after it called the top Bitcoin went up and set a new higher high So it did call the second top as well there back in 2017-18 it called the top correctly here and So far after that it has not got into the red Meaning that it has not called the top or the cycle peak as being overvalued yet So the last indicator we're looking at is the Puel multiple You can see here that this metric looks at the supply side of Bitcoin's economy Which is the Bitcoin miners in their revenue it explores market cycles from a mining revenues perspective This one just like the last one in 2013 it went into the red and called a false top But then it did call the correct top the second time around back in 2018 You can see it once again got into the red and it called the top on in the 2018 bull cycle And again, we have not yet got into that same red spot So all of that put together is basically telling me that the overall trend is still intact That we still have at least one more push up to the upside that we have not yet seen So therefore this week what I am doing is I am adding on to my long-term investments As long as we stay below 50k I will be adding on where I will look to reevaluate my positions is if we were to fall below $42,000 as on's were above that and below 50. I will be adding on to my Long-term positions not only in Bitcoin, but also any theorem and any other projects that I really believe in remember guys This is not financial advice This is just what I'm doing based on the probabilities that I am seeing But please do your own research on all of these different signals and all of these different indicators and Make the decision that's best for you because at the end of the day This is probability meaning that it's not 100% it's not guaranteed It could still go the opposite all the indicators including myself could be wrong So thank you guys so much for tuning in today. I know it's been a red Monday But that's why I'm giving you guys some perspective some Hopium and just reminding you guys that when in doubt zoom out I'll see you all on the next one guys make sure to smash the like button on this video Don't forget to subscribe if you need to the channel and drop a comment if you have a question about anything that we cover today I'll see you guys on our next one as always peace and love