 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning market kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good morning, everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, company alive from TFNN Wednesday morning, just after 9 a.m. Eastern time. We got about 25 minutes to go until the start of trading, and you've got markets in negative territory to kick things off. You're looking at an S&P, negative by more than 1%, trading at 4,039. You're negative by 45 points. 1.12% to start things off. Man, quite a miss from Target. Target trading down 20% this morning. We'll jump over in a moment. It's not just retail, though. You get the Nasdaq 100 down 1.5% right now. 188 points in the red, 12,372. The Dow off 274,3207. We jumped to Bitcoin back under 30,029,455. We get the price accrued this morning, which is just above 1.12%. We were at 1.15 yesterday. We're at 1.1120 right now, accrued $1.60 higher on the session. We'll be talking to our man, Teddy Kegstad, coming up at 40 past the hour. We talk a little bit of forex. We always talk a little bit of crude as well. It's been quite the crude bull for a while. Man, you talk about a crude market. Watch out. Gold contract this morning, negative by $6 at 1811. Gold up to above 1830 yesterday before pulling back. We have a low this week of 1785 on Monday, and we jumped to notes and bonds. As we get a little bit of a pullback as well, you get the 10 year off 6 ticks at 118,21. We get the 30 right now, negative by 8 ticks at 138,13. We jump over to the VIX as we got markets accelerating to the downside. We had a 25 VIX yesterday. We got a 2730 VIX so far this morning, elevated just a bit. All right, let's kick it off a target. Yesterday it was Walmart. They miss in dramatic fashion and target. You can't overstate it. They're down $55 right now. What is that going to be? $42? That's 25 percent, folks. 25 percent. It's not stopping. You're basically at lows. You closed yesterday at $215. And keep in mind, you already down 2.5 percent from where we closed out Monday. So the market was already pricing in a 2.5 percent drop because of Walmart's disappointment. Walmart down double figures, I think, itself yesterday, which is pretty remarkable for the size of the company it is. But you're talking about target, man. Target, I think you kicked off yesterday at about $100 billion market cap. Yeah, you sure did. Because this morning, you shaved 25 percent off that. You're down to $75 billion. Now, taking a longer-term look at target, you've had quite the rise. You're going to open this morning at $160, right at the $618, folks. You were just trading late April at $254. My dad's newsletter this morning on marketing. He says I was reading it. He was saying, hey, this isn't growth stocks. This isn't multiples. This is, I think he put it, mainstream America, folks. Watch out for a bear market when you got companies like Walmart and Target tumbling to the downside. I mean, absolutely remarkable, right? So much for the 3A2. So much for the 50 percent retracement. We're going to literally open at just about the $618. Maybe that's where we find the bid. Maybe we give it all back. Absolutely remarkable. The run started on the COVID lows, folks. COVID lows. Are we going to go to COVID lows? We're going to open at $90. Yeah, far off from the $160. But as I just said, we were just trading at $254 a month ago. $254 a month ago. It's almost hard to believe, as I say that. We're going to open at $160 for Target shares. You jump over to Walmart. We'll pull up those Target numbers in a while in a moment. Walmart, now we have some Walmart in my newsletter, Rocket Equities & Options. Quite the pullback yesterday. We're going to open down about $2 today as they're getting punished a bit for the Target miss as well. You back it up to the lows of last March on Walmart. You're talking about a little $126 there. You had quite a consolidation. Walmart had been one of the better stocks this year, trading up to $160 in April. You opened the year at about $144. Walmart going to open at $128. The 50 percent retracement in the entire COVID run. Looking at $127. And if you make it back to the $618, you're only talking about $10 from where we are in Walmart. $121, the $618. So back to Target. Let's take a look at it. Margins, profits. That's what it's all about, folks. We'll slide it up to the headline. Costs, not at profit. That's one way to put it. The company sees a lower operating margin and inflation. Squeeze, freight and fuel expenses. Freight and fuel. I think I saw something like a billion dollars for the quarter. For freight and fuel expenses. Show little sign of easing. I would agree with that one, folks. We just saw the price of crude. Crude is trading at $111. I anticipate that our man, Teddy Kegstad, is not going to see that crude market pulling back. Many people do not see that crude market pulling back anytime soon. And especially when you talk about pulling back anytime soon on like a quarterly basis, right? On a two-month, three-month basis. We're going to be into the next quarter of these companies. And we've got crude sitting at $111 right now with no sign of easing in that crude market. So operating profit will amount to only about 6% of sales this year. 2 percentage points below the previous forecast. And the company's first quarter adjusted profit missed the lowest of 23 analyst estimates. So Bloomberg's got 23 analysts out there. They span a number of different estimates they were looking for, and Target comes in below them all. We were less profitable than we expected to be or attended to be over time. Excuse me. That's or intend to be over time. Looking ahead, it's clear many of these cost pressures will persist in the near term. Now, take a look at the operating margin under pressure after a pandemic era boom. I mean, they were doing almost 10% margins for a business like Target, man. That was some big, big margins. And just like that, you're down to, I guess, 5.3 is the number. They said 6% up there. You're down to 5.3. And yeah, it's going to continue for the near term. More dramatic than what Walmart posted on Tuesday, clearly, there's some industry-wide macro problems occurring. Food, gas, inflation are drawing dollars away from discretionary general merchandise, forcing aggressive discounting to clear out product. So one of the things going on here, apparel. I mean, almost the scariest thing, and I'm going to dig into their conference call as well. That started at 8 in the morning, I believe. Yes, it did. Because they're seeing some trend changes that are not indicative of a strong economy, folks. Some of the wording that they used, there was a dramatic shift in terms of what people were spending their money on. Strong demand for food and beverages, beauty products and household essentials, went along with lower than expected sales in discretionary categories. People got less money, folks, or at least they're comfortable, less comfortable spending the money they have. Robust sales as U.S. consumers powered ahead despite the high inflation. Comp sales climbed 3.3% in the first quarter. Okay, but here's what you have to consider. That's three different months. We're getting inflationary numbers right now on a monthly basis when you get CPI, right? They're running at about 0.6%, 1%, whether you're taking in everything. That was three times the average analyst estimate, okay? Revenue rose 4% to 25.2 million. Walmart was only looking for 24.3 billion. But guess what? They're spending more money, and that's the bottom line. The value of Target's inventory surged 8.5% from the previous quarter and 43% from a year earlier. Their inventory went up by almost 50%. Yeah, that's not what companies like to have happened to put it lightly. They had huge demand last year. They tried to ramp things up this year. As we've seen across the board, there was a slowdown. They spent too much money. They have a huge inventory supply. They're trying to cost cut that. We'll finish up the conversation. We'll be talking to our man, Kevin Hinks from TD Ameritrade Network as well. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. Here's the gold trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol VGZ. You can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years' experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Thibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. 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Welcome back, folks. We got the S&P, negative by 48 points right now. You got the NASDAQ, negative by 200. You got Target, folks. Negative by, gotta do the math, 40, 50, $55, $53. Target is in the red right now. Absolutely remarkable when you look at where it is. You look at the expected move yesterday and the Thank Us One platform, $12. And that's in either direction. Let's talk about beating the expected move. With that in mind, let's jump over to our man, Kevin Hinks. Every trading day folks, 12 noon Eastern time on the TD Ameritrade Network right here on Tiger TV. Kevin Hinks, Tom White, Fast Market. They walk you through the day's market action. Man, we got a Fast Market and Target this morning. Kevin, good morning. Good morning, Tommy. Yeah, you know, this is interesting news out of Target because this stock is down 25% pre-open. Their revenues beat expectations. Their same store sales beat expectations. But just like Walmart, their products were higher, their transportation costs were higher, and their wages were higher. And, you know, when, how long will these companies take this hit before they start raising these prices? And it's not a matter of, you know, you think about this, Tommy, if Target and Walmart were to raise prices, right, create more free cash flow, create higher earnings. They could call the gouger right now and pulled in front of Congress. But the fact that they didn't, and they took the hit on their higher prices, means their stock tanks. So as the CEO of this company, what should you do? I know what I would do. I wouldn't worry about the heat coming from Capitol Hill, and I'd raise prices because clearly, their costs in doing business are higher, Tommy, but it's going to be an interesting trading day for Target, which started the day, Tommy, with a 15 PE. What's it going to be down 25%? It's a great point, man. I saw that PE, and I gave myself a little chuckle as well. I mean, if you're a long-term believer in these equities, you know, and what is the definition right now, Kevin, of near-term, long-term, right, middle-term, when we get out of some of these influences, I saw one thing in the Target. I mean, inventory, they're struggling to figure out inventory. I think I saw something trying to pull it up real quick while I chat with you. Something like inventory of 43% from last year's level. Yeah. So I have here a quote from Bloomberg. The value of Target's inventory surged 8.5% from the previous quarter and 43% from a year earlier. Just very difficult to forecast from a year earlier when things were surging. Now we've got inflation out of control. We've got gas prices out of control. People might have a little bit less money, discretionary spending a little different. But I thought I'm in quite an inventory build, and that's going to give them some problems, man, as maybe they have to undercut it. Maybe they have to write off some of that inventory. But in the longer term, they reiterated their longer-term goals in my head. I just said to myself, what is longer-term right now? And I agree, man. You can't have a stock dropping off 25%. You know they're doing some soul-searching in the C-suite of the Target executives this morning. We got Lowe's out this morning as well, Kevin. Down a bit. TJ Maxx, I was jumping around earlier this morning. I saw the headlines with Target. I said, oh, TJ Maxx was out as well. Oh, they're positive. Well, you've got to be a happy camper if you're in TJ Maxx and you're positive as you get Target and Walmart getting smacked. The market, though, Kevin, you think this is a reflection a little bit of two of my dad put it in his newsletter this morning? That's kind of Main Street America, man. Walmart and Target. It's not just growth stocks right now that are really suffering in this economy with the S&P now down 50 points as we come into the opening bell. What's your take on how this hits the general market this morning? Yeah, it's going to be a little tricky, right? Because yesterday we had a rally in the really high-profile name that led this market on the upside. So we have a segment of the economy that is struggling with higher prices, but it looks like apparel at TJ Maxx and other parts of the economy are still doing well. This is going to be a down opening because the news and Target will permeate other parts of the economy. But let's see how this day finishes. I think you'll wait until midday and then you trade this a little bit going into the end of the day. So, Tommy, I think this is one of these days where let's pay attention to where the market opens, but let's all pay attention to where it closes as well. It's a great point, man. I thought of you guys do such great segments with the guys and girls at Lake Folio over there and I always hear you talk about Target and in my household, man, and in many households I imagine the brand recognition, the brand approval, just the general consensus of Target, they have a lot of good sentiment out there. So it would be interesting to see how this ranges in terms of a longer-term perspective. Down 55 bucks, though, man. That is quite a haircut. I expected, especially after you get a little bit, 2.5% down yesterday, too. You were trading at 2.20 on Monday, you came into yesterday at 2.15, so they were already down a little bit and now you're down at 1.61, just absolutely remarkable. With that in mind, Kevin, what are you guys going to be talking about at 12 noon today? Pretty good name today, Tommy. Cisco Systems in the first segment will do coals in the second segment. That'll be a little volatile, as you know, with the movement in retail. And then AMD, the chip member, the strongest part of the market yesterday were chips yesterday. So we'll trade AMD in the third segment today. Yeah, coals, man. So I got coals up on the Thinkorswim platform right now. Closed out yesterday at $48.47. With the Target news, you're trading down a bit to $45 and change this morning. You got about a $6 move, Kevin. $5.84. That's as of the close of yesterday in the options market priced in. I was telling the story yesterday. I was into coals this weekend, Kevin. I'm there with the family. We have a 15-year-old daughter. So we're at a mall in Lakeland, Florida. And there's a big coals. And with that, they have the big Sephora name outside of coals that they have now. You know, that's the rage. Target, of course, has stores within stores. Coals has stores within stores. And we found it so remarkable that the sign for Sephora, Kevin, was so big, even compared to the big coal signs, which are enormous, folks. You know, they're the big retailers. And we thought, I was like, is that inside the coals? It looks like it's its own store. You know what I'm saying? No, I'm pretty sure it's inside the coals, you know? And we go inside the coals, Kevin, and we walk around the Sephora, and we don't spend anything at Sephora because the 15-year-old, she wants to, she's looking up everything and she's price conscious herself. So she's figuring out everything there and then she's going to go buy it either online or somewhere else. But what do we end up buying, Kevin? We end up buying some stuffed animals while we're in there. I'm looking at shorts while I'm in there. So my own personal, it was a good experience. That was the bottom line. It was a good experience in there. There was a lot of great items that, you know, we got pulled into the store through Sephora. So it's kind of interesting to see, you know, I know that that's kind of the strategy out there. But man, quite a week of retail earnings. So we'll see where we go. You want to give us a little taste of what you think about the coals numbers coming in? Well, you remember, where do you put coals? Do you put them with the grocery retail like Target and Walmart, or do you put them with TJX in the discount retail spot or apparel? So, yeah, it's going to be kind of tricky how we figure this out. I'm going to have to do a little research here and figure out an opinion, because remember, this stock has already sold off pretty significantly here, down from, oh, in the mid-60s, down into the high four in the mid-40s. So how much of this is already in with, you know, with TJX up today? And as you said, the volatility, man. So Target only had about a $12 move priced in, and that was a $200 stock, folks. Coals has a $5, $6 move for a $45 stock, and I got it up here, Kevin, on the Thinkorswim platform on a weekly basis. This thing's been chopping around between literally about $45, and like you said, maybe $64, $65. We're going to open today right near the lower end of this consolidation. We'll see if it holds when they have their numbers. Kevin, we appreciate the time as always, man. We look forward to fast market coming up at 12 today. Thanks for having me on, Tommy. Have a great day. You too, Kevin. Take care, man. Folks, tune in every trading day. 12 noon Eastern time. We got quite a market. A fast market, you could even say. S&P's down 47 right now. NASDAQ off $188, Dow off $260. It should be an interesting open, folks. Stay tuned up right back to this minute. If you want to take advantage of this sector, now is the time to subscribe to my Gold Report. The Gold Report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold, which is the currency and bond markets. New subscribers get a 30-day money-back guarantee, so you have nothing to lose. 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Using this first-of-its-kind program, The Art of Timing the Trade Charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups, including guardleafs, ABCs, butterflies, to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks, or even months searching to find. And right now, we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month. We are so confident that you're gonna love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money-back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting TFNN.com. It is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We've got markets open. You've got an S&P opening down 45 points. NASDAQ 100 opening down 196 right now. Let's jump around to some of the fang stocks. We kick it off with Amazon down 3.1% Amazon. Probably paying some penalty here for retail when you're talking about people spending money, when you're talking about costs, configured to their business as well. We jumped to Walmart, continuing the pain down 2.6% on the target earnings and target down 24.24%. Man, 163.14%. You jump over to the Analyze tab. Let's see what they're popping for a PE right now. I am interested in myself. I'm not sure how often this does even refresh. Yeah, it's putting 15.97 right now. I'm not sure if that's calculated on the last earnings, but nonetheless, you have a stock trading at 165 right now. You jump to Target, made 2.19 a share on a quarterly basis. You times that by 4, you're making 8, 9 bucks a year. So that's like what, a 20 PE? I mean, at least it's nice when you have some of these equities folks that you can calculate how long you'd have to actually wait just to make back what you put into an equity when you're talking about earnings, when you're talking about PEs in the realm of 10 to 15. PEs get hurt so tremendously because the multiples sometimes are based just on this future that right now is totally in question when you talk about profits, revenue, costs, supply, inventory, etc. Target down 22.7, so you catch a little bit of a bid. But as I said, you had a $12 move price in and you're down 48 bucks. Let's see how Coles is opening this morning. Yeah, you're down 8.4%. Coles paying the price right now for Target. Now, one thing in there is that apparel. They saw a big pullback in apparel. Interesting because TJ Maxx was able to navigate that. Okay. Will Coles be able to do it? We'll find out. They're down 8.6% today. Now, you take a look. There was the box on a long-term basis. You're below that box. You take a look at the three-year weekly. All right, we're coming down to the lows of October of last year, that low, $43.67. We have a low so far today of $44 on the dot, round number low, an old-time man basil Chapman right there. Yeah, it's a tough one. Avoid retailers. What do you not avoid in this market right now, folks? You know, that is the tough one out here as well. To say the least, as we know. All right, let's jump to housing. So, starts and building permits stall as mortgage rates bite. Residential starts drop 0.2% in April and permits fell 3.2%. Construction backlogs climbed to the highest since 1874. So, you have starts still going on, okay? But the backlog is the highest because it's taken so long to get all those houses done as well or just residential houses in general. So, starts decreased to 1.72 million annualized rate after a downwardly revised 1.73 million the prior month. There's your starts in terms of where you are on the graph. The average for 30 year loan, 5.3%. Up from 2.94% a year prior. The highest since 2009. Still, signs suggest pressures may be softening someone on both supply and demand sides of the market amid easing pandemic and rising rates. Permitting firms to work through swollen backlogs. Excuse me. Single family starts fell 7.3% in April to an annualized pace of 1.1 million. Multifamily that's more volatile because it includes apartment buildings and condos rose 15.3%. So, watch out for the volatility skewing that number there. The number of single family properties under construction continue to rise as builders make some headway reaching 815,000. The most since 2006 when you start talking about 2006, you talk about 2008, you talk about the housing market. Yeah, and not surprising folks when you got a 30 year at 5.3%. Now, I don't this isn't like those years when you had people just flipping houses with no equity the market tanks, everyone's under water. Okay, not the case. Renser rising. They're keeping up with pace with some more people are paying. Okay, but be aware that it is going to impact that market and it's probably going to take a little time as people are able to afford less house. It's very simple. We all understand it, but it will matter folks. And you're just seeing it happen with people not taking on mortgages as fast as they had in previous years at a rate of 5.3% because on payment wise, it really does matter. Alright, there's a great article out here on Bloomberg talking about Pfizer, man, not in good light with Pfizer, but deservedly so. So, we'll check out Pfizer's stock today. That's a three-year weekly. So, you're down a bit. You were up to 61 bucks last year. You're at about $51 million. And so, what this was talking about was the Paxilvid type Paxilvid rain stymies drug combination research. So, resistance to solo therapy a matter of time, most chemists say. The drug giant Pfizer rebuffs outside requests for supplies for trials. So, it's going on here. There's a pretty informative article. If you get a chance to check it out. This is on Bloomberg out this morning. Pfizer's resisting requests for study supplies of its COVID-19 pill Paxilvid. Disappointing researchers who say combining the $22 billion therapy with other drugs might stave off resistance. So, what's going on is they have not started any combination of trials in people. And review of the clinical trials database shows no outpatient studies combining Paxilvid, which is a mainstay U.S. COVID therapy right now with other antiviral drugs or antibodies. Some academic researchers in advocacy advocacy groups say they can't get Paxilvid for human studies. They could maintain or improve its effectiveness and expand its use. I'm not going to read the entire article, okay? But what it does talk about this is HIV is another RNA virus, okay? And the combination therapy is on a mainstay for that from the 90s. And what basically ends up happening here is that eventually this drug will have resistance, okay? That is what happens. So, the appearance of resistance to Paxilvid is likely just a matter of time. And now these are all opinions, folks, okay? But that's one medical chemist and an industry blogger who said he surprised that the combination trials aren't already underway. It's a natural thing to try. You're going to see resistance get built to Paxilvid. That is where a combination therapy might be more effective. Resistance to Paxilvid is easy to generate in a lab. That's a Columbia University virologist, David Ho, in unpublished work, putting it all out there. It's a Bloomberg article. You can check it out. I'll post the link in the Tiger's Den of this article. But, yeah, it's kind of unfortunate that you're seeing, of course, profits being put ahead of public health, probably. The company recently said it has commitments worth $22 billion in sales for this year alone for two years. So, you know, maybe public pressure will do it. Maybe some regulation is necessary. But, you know, many of us are getting back to our normal life, folks. We're not living in fear of COVID, but that doesn't mean that we can't be aware that it's still hitting certain parts of our population. People are still dying from it. And you have a company like Pfizer that has a great drug there. They're making tens of billions dollars off it, but they're not looking for a future. I mean, if one thing this taught us, folks, is that maybe we look a little bit to the future here, all right, and do something proactive as opposed to being reactive. While combination studies may make sense at some point, the company isn't right now in a hurry to do something like that, CEO said in a May 3rd interview. So hopefully this gets a little bit more pressed, because I imagine it seems like that's the case. And we all know how it goes, right? That's what happens. Whatever it is, they mutate, they build resistance. Not too surprising if that would be the case. Pfizer flat today. Let's see how Target is trading eight minutes into the session. Ooh, down 25% no give up at all as basically coming right into session lows for Target. Walmart shares down 3.4% right now. TJ Maxx up 6%. A winner for them. We jump to lows down 3.3%. Stay tuned, folks. We'll be coming back with our man, Teddy and we'll be right back. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area, including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa and Clearwater markets? Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area. Whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property, Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay Area where buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels. 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An investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor for side fund services LLC Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com Then hit Watch Tiger TV That's TFNN.com Then hit Watch Tiger TV Welcome back folks. We're taking a look at the crude market. We got crude right now. We'll call it basically flat. You're positive 22 cents on the session but you were high, you were lower right now. We're trading at right at about $110 Let's jump over to our man Teddy Kegstad. We talk to Teddy folks every Wednesday at 40 past the hour. Put it on your calendar. You can reach Teddy every trading day at forex-trading-unlock.com Teddy Kegstad, good morning. Good morning Tommy. Boy, so I was jumping around to some of the forex markets. We can jump into that but I know everybody loves your take recently on the crude market. Volatility persisting man the market down about $5 I'll put it on a short-term 15-minute chart $5 in change We're at 115 yesterday Teddy We're back to 110 What's your take right now on this crude market? I think we're going to keep on pressuring resistance I think it's pretty obvious that the bulls are in control right now and I see us getting back above that 116 level and going back up to 120 I think pretty solidly within the next week or so. I just think the trend is really really supported right now. Tough to argue against that one to put it lightly man. For listeners out there, Teddy, thinking about trading crude I don't really trade crude at all I don't trade much futures in general myself but for those looking to trade this market I wanted to talk about this because even as a bull you got a drop from yesterday of $5 in a heartbeat nothing really dramatic I put this thing back to last week and thanks so much for filling in doing the program last Wednesday you had crude last Wednesday early overnight started $98 you must have had a heck of a program in it because crude made it up to 106 during the day makes it to 115 but how would you think about trading this if you do trade it when you have $5, 6, 7, $15 swings even within a larger trend Well that's a good that's a really good question because with this kind of volatility I mean the margins on crude are very very high and here's something also when you look at the crude market unlike most futures contracts it has monthly expirations so that rollover to begin with is constantly going on so that already has a big deal to do with pricing so if you're going to trade the crude market in any type of trend you have to really be aware of that to begin with okay so which month you trade whether you're trading the front month or one of the back months that's going to be something you have to take into consideration and also your risk levels what's your risk reward right now you have easily $5, $6 swings in the oil market so if you're having $5, $6 swings just in a normal gyration what are you looking to capture I mean you got to look to try and catch a $25 move so you have to have a big capital outlay for trading it so I think that's the one thing you have to be careful with and options are probably the way to go nice it's a great point man and not a lot of people probably think about it in that capacity and you should folks because it's all about risk reward and yeah you better realize that even if you're a strong bullman there's going to be $5 moves in a heartbeat no real news from yesterday to today that would really drive that market down I mean I'm sure there's news but you're barely off the highs we're at 98 bucks as I said a week ago you bought that you're up 10 bucks but guess what you had to take a $6 swing to the downside during that let's jump into a good point to real quick Tommy is that futures this goes with treasury bond futures too and tenure futures you know one of the ways that I still trade those futures but I trade them mostly even oil I use the currency markets I use the yen as my way of trading oil and the bonds so you've walked me through that before Teddy but we got a bunch of new listeners and I love the way that you walk through you know the yen oil intensive producing economies can you walk the listeners when you say that real quickly how they would do something like that in terms of what currencies move and why they kind of make those moves because I think that's great education you walked us through before sure okay so for instance like how what we're going to talk about here is how to use oil and interest rates the US dollar yen we know that interest rates are a function of currency pricing to begin with so the bullishness of the of the interest rates in America are definitely bearish for the US dollar are bullish for the US dollar yen cross then you couple it with the oil with a very strong bullish trend that we have right now Japan's a completely oil dependent country they don't produce oil you know so with this type of trend going on that also gives it bullishness to the US dollar yen so that's how I say how I use those fundamentals for those markets where you know am I currently in an oil position not exactly but I am because of how I'm using that trend to trade another market I remember the first time you went over that example man it was a great example for people to understand you know what really drives some of the currencies man and what drives it is real life you know talking about commodities purchasing power whether we all know interest rates of course as well so the yen I got the yen up here on a daily we make it to 131 and change a couple weeks almost yet a little bit of a pullback what day is that was that the day you're on the day after you were on the air kind of chopping around between 128 and 130 what's your take with the dollar yen coming well that's an interesting trade especially right now as we're talking it's pretty much off it's laying on the lows of the day and irony irony the other markets are kind of flat oils only you know slightly up or whatever right now interest rates are flat the yen right now I think it's just in a chop zone this is just a consolidation period remember that the US are giving me the Japanese central bank and their finance ministry we're going to try and defend their currency originally a month and a half ago that's what they were talking about they have yet to do a thing and we've been babbling between 128 now and 130 now for what is it a week and a half two weeks you know so it's interesting I think that as long as you know the bluff has been called on Japan so I believe that as long as the interest rates are under pressure and as long as the oil starts to continue to press resistance that the US dollar yen is going to definitely probe higher highs yeah maybe a little bit of consolidation there after accelerating from remarkably in March man 115 to 130 and change what other kind of setting up right now yeah no I could see it man you know I mean there's no there's no real weakness I see consolidation if anything man at the highs and things can't go up forever consolidation sometimes if your bull is a nice thing to get a little break before that second charge higher what other currencies with movement Teddy I was looking at him you know we said a little bit of chop maybe a little bit of pull back from the trends that you've been talking about recently what are what other currencies you're looking at on your radar this week well definitely the euro is something I'm looking to sell rallies in I don't see it finding any truce bounce actually now interesting enough we've had a little reprieve and dollar strength with those currencies over the past few sessions and I would be very careful right now I think that you're kind of finding a point where you can start to sell into the euro US dollar as well as the pound US dollar now the US dollar Swiss we hit parity already that was pretty interesting remember we were talking about that weeks ago I thought we wouldn't hit parity until at least June something like that and like a balloon underwater we've done it so it'll be interesting to see how weak and I have to say like I think that we're seeing with the Swiss Frank is that this whole Ukrainian Russian thing when they open it up the doors to the bent the as far as what's going on with Russian customers and stuff like that that changes the whole value of the Swiss Frank Switzerland is no longer a neutral country you know and I think I think that we're gonna start just we could see this the US dollar Swiss get up to like 120 or something like that if the world really starts to view Switzerland is no longer anything more than just a little European hideaway okay and what we got 30 seconds man is is are we gonna get parity in the euro US dollar when is that coming that's coming that has to we have parity in the Swiss and we have the US dollar yen going like this and even the pound is bashing lows how can the euro not collapse you know just amazing going down below parity amazing moves I got them up on the charts and just mammoth moves as we know Teddy we appreciate the conversation the education as always man we look forward to talking next Wednesday man sounds good time we have a great day so you guys have a great one as well stay tuned folks we'll be right back to finish up the show sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you 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different market fluctuations join Larry on May 17th as you host a live five hour trading webinar from 9am to 2pm eastern time giving you insight into how he analyzes the market and decides his plays the trading pattern explaining how to structure your trading day the times most likely to generate signals which signals to ignore and how to use the pattern to mitigate risk in this all day five hour live trading webinar take a seat by Larry Pesevento as he trades the markets real time including the Dow and S&P 500E mini crude oil, natural gas gold, treasury bonds wheat and soybeans, the euro dollar pound dollar, dollar yen and more if you've ever wanted to get inside the mind of a market master you cannot miss this live trading webinar to sign up today just visit the front page of TFNN.com this segment is brought to you by thinkorswim for more information just click the thinkorswim banner on the front page of TFNN.com welcome back folks we got the S&P's negative right now 1.5% you get the NASDAQ approaching 2% in the red right now DAWA 433 points Russell negative 22 I have the S&P up here a weekly chart all right you're trading above 4,000 4,020 we got some tough earnings out of target this morning and just some context folks I've said it before this market may be going lower okay we've been talking about that the 382 is well within reach we made it down to about 3850 I think 3855 was the low of last week the 382 is at about 3800 3500 is totally in play too that's 500 points below we're trading at folks that's about a 12.5% pullback just from where we are right now if you're in this market and you're thinking at all that you're overexposed it is not too late to sell okay yeah it's tough when you see that you could have sold the 4800 just at the beginning of the year you could have sold the 4600 at the end of March but as my dad said many times doesn't matter folks what you have is what it's worth right now doesn't matter what it was worth yesterday okay and make sure you're protected in this market because when you see stocks down another 4% right now target now more than 25% off of where you were yesterday and folks remember that's 25% from where you were yesterday target was up at 254 as recently as the week of April 18th you're off almost a hundred dollars from that price point man and we're seeing the effect of earnings we're seeing the effect of margins we're seeing it across the board higher crew prices we are in a period of extreme volatility for at least the next few months right fast forward two or three months down the road when the feds been hiking 50 basis points once twice three times what happens if inflation is still there what happens if there's an economic slowdown inflation still raging the feds hike 50 basis points three meetings and the data isn't slowing down to the degree that they want are they still going to keep hyping hiking are they going to risk really bringing us into a recession to bring down inflation you get the point be careful out there folks did not imagine a stock like target had a hundred dollars to the downside in a month and that's what it just did so not too late folks look at where we were at the beginning of last year 3750 look where we were at the beginning of 2020 3250 a lot of people at the end of 2020 when the market was at 3700 after being a 2100 would have loved for the market just to be at 4000 a year and a half then thanks so much for starting your day with me folks stay tuned it's going to be a wild one it's up next larry at 11 fast market Steve David