 Hey everybody, what's going on? I am Greg Sosman, joined today by Jim Sannis of FanDuel, not here to talk about NASCAR, but he's here to talk about the NFL. What's up, Jim? Don't you worry, Greg. We'll get back to NASCAR in the very near future because there are two more races next week, so we'll be talking NASCAR again soon. A quick little reprieve, though, to talk some NFL for today. How are you doing? I'm doing great, and in fact, this is probably as good as I'm going to do because once we get into your first missed playoffs, I think we're all screwed on social, and that begins with the Buffalo Bills. And there's a lot of members of Bills of Mafia that are going to want to turn off this video right now because you want to place the bet, your favorite bet to place over missed playoffs versus make the playoffs is the Bills to miss the playoffs this season. That's not going to go well, Jim. Yeah, and I get it. Like, Bills fans have reasons to be optimistic. They're a generally pretty well-run team. I like their head coach. Their defense is pretty fun. So there are reasons to like this Bills team. So we're not totally trashing you, but I think at this number, a plus 1-40 to miss the playoffs, there's quite a bit of value in that. And honestly, like, I'd love to bet into this division and try to be optimistic here because it is pretty wide open, but my concern is around Josh Allen because Josh Allen, yes, he got better last year, but he's starting just 27th in per-drop-back efficiency based on number fires metrics. And that's concerning. It should go up with Stefan Diggs being in town because situation does matter a lot for a quarterback. And Josh Allen's situation did just get better. But if Allen doesn't become a legitimate quarterback and become better than what he was last year, it's pretty easy to see a path to them missing the playoffs for this year. If we're looking at plus 1-40, the implied odds of that are 42%. In order to bet this number, you'd need the odds that it missed the playoffs to be 42% or higher. And if you look at number fires projections, which are now live for the full season, the odds that the bills missed the playoffs are actually 47%. So about a 5 percentage point gap there between their actual odds and what the odds makers have. So I'm pretty willing to dive in here at plus 1-40. I think that the bills have a lot to be optimistic about. So I think that it's not a must bet by any means, but there's good value here. I see paths to disappointment for this team. So I'm willing to dive in at plus 1-40. The AFC East wide open this year with Tom Brady, of course, in Tampa Bay, the Patriots rebuilding the bills are even the favorite right now in the AFC East. But you can kind of see this division going in any direction. Getting this team to miss the playoffs at plus 1-40, it's just a good number. Now that we think it's going to happen, stay chill, Bill's fans. It's just a good bet to place according to number of fires measures, which are live right now. Another team that has kind of good odds to miss the playoffs, it's the Indianapolis Colts. It's another wide open division out there in the AFC South where the Colts, another team that may be the presumptive favorite. But Jim, you believe the right bet is to take them missing the playoffs? How come? Yeah, this one may feel a little bit weird because if you go to sharp football and look at their schedules for the upcoming year, the Colts actually have the easiest schedule on the entire NFL for 2020 based on the win totals of their opponents. And that's the way you want to look at this thing. So that's definitely good for the Colts. And it's actually by a pretty wide margin that their schedule is the easiest. But it looks like bookmakers are accounting for that because plus 1-60 to miss the playoffs is a pretty big number. Phillip Rivers last year, not as bad as Perception. A lot of his picks came in desperation time where you do want to be aggressive and picks aren't all that bad. But he'll now have worse skill position players than he had last year to deal with. He no longer has Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, Austin Neckler, instead he's throwing a Ty Hilton and a lot of question marks on this Colts team. He does get a better offensive line and a much better offensive line, but the improvements there are kind of, they're kind of scrubbed out by the drop in skill position players Rivers will have to throw to. So that's definitely a concern. I also look at the defensive side of the ball here and that's not necessarily a strength for the Colts either. They ranked 19th overall based on number of fires metrics last year. They were 20th against the pass. So those are big concerns. Can Phillip Rivers improve from where he was last year? Can he improve them where they were under Jacoby percent? And can this defense take a step forward? At this odds, you need their odds to make, to miss the playoffs to be about 39% in order to justify betting it. And at number fire, they had the Colts missing the playoffs 48.8% of the time. So about 10 percentage points difference there. It's even better value on the Colts than what you're getting on the bills. I think that there's a bit too much certainty in this number and the way this Colts season will play out. Yes, there are seven playoff teams now and that does matter. But with the question marks around the defense and the question marks around rivers, I'm very okay laying plus 160 year for sure. I think it's a good point to bring up the fact that there are seven playoff teams right now. It's a little bit easier to make the playoffs. The AFC South should be a competitive division with the Texans and Colts both vying for supremacy there. And of course, how about the Titans that made it all the way to the AFC Championship game just a year ago? It's going to be competitive and the Colts with Phillip Rivers, like I said, maybe a presumptive favorite, but a plus 166 and also maybe worth saying, uh-uh. Let's head back to the AFC East where if you like the bills at plus 140 to miss the playoffs, well, are you going to also like the Patriots at over plus 165 to do the same? Patriots have no Tom Raver. They still have Bill Belichick. They still have Josh McDaniels, Julian Edelman and so much more. The Patriots have pretty good odds to not make the playoffs. You buy an in. Yeah, someone from this division is going to make the playoffs. And I think that's good to admit because we're betting against two of them here. But with the bills being plus 140 and the Patriots being plus 166, I am actually okay with both of those numbers where they're at, even though we know someone from this division is going to make it. I just think that there are a lot of question marks here and there's similar question marks that we have with the bills. Both teams have really good defenses, but questions at quarterback and on offense in general. And I think that when you get plus 166 to miss the playoffs on a team that may be starting a guy who was a fourth round pick last year and didn't have the best resume coming out of college, that's pretty enticing. And it's not just Jared Sinema. It's also the skill position players around him. Tom Brady struggled in this offense last year. And now they're running it back for 2020 with a downgrade at quarterback under center. So that's really concerning. Basically, if you wanted the Patriots to make the playoffs at this number, you would need to bank on them having an outlier defense once again. And defensive efficiency is not as sticky year over year as offensive efficiency. So banking on a back-to-back outlier season on a defense is pretty tough. They also lost Kyle Van Noy, Janie Collins, mother players on defense. And they're going to have a lot of young players potentially contributing on that side of the ball. That's definitely scary if you're going to get them at this number to make the playoffs. So I'm just going with the number here. Plus 166 is more than enough. One of the bills of the Patriots are probably make the playoffs. So maybe the situation where you don't bet both these numbers is pick the one you like more and go from there. But I think in a vacuum, both the bills and the Patriots, good bets not to make the playoffs just based on where the odds makers are viewing them. Now betting against the bills and the Patriots, it seems like Jim's all into the Miami Dolphins this year or his New York Jets ultimately make the playoffs. Now, listen, you may not want to do both the bills and the Patriots to miss the playoffs. But Jim's right. The Patriots, their skill position players haven't gotten any better. Their quarterback got worse. They, I wasn't barely made the playoffs last year, but it kind of felt like they barely made the playoffs last year on the heroics of a defense and Tom Brady. Well, defense, well, they may not be back this year. Tom Brady is definitely not back this year. The Patriots is a bet to miss the playoffs that I actually like better than even the bills. Let's move on to the next one here, Jim. It's finally a team to make the playoffs. We did our misses and now let's get into our makes. And you're not the only one that's buying back in on the Cleveland Browns. They have a new head coach. You can come as the fans key, a new regime above the fans key. And of course, Baker may feel back with all those weapons that everybody loved last year. Why is this year going to be different? Yeah, I just think they've made incremental improvements. And those incremental improvements really do add up once you look at the effect of those improvements on both sides of the football. The big improvement on defense, they get Miles Garrett back. That's not an acquisition, but it is a big one because their defense really tanked after Garrett got suspended last year and getting a guy who could be defensive player of the year back on defense is a pretty major boon for them. But there've also been major gains on the offense. And then I think these have been the more high profile gains this year. But Jedrick Wills at left tackle, Jack Conklin at right tackle, Austin Hooper at tight end, they're helping shore up their biggest weaknesses from last year. And I think that's a huge thing in helping Baker may feel, get back to where he was as a rookie. We don't need this team to suddenly be a world beater to make the playoffs. We kind of just need Baker may feel to go back to what he was as a rookie. I don't think that's that tall of an ask for a guy who was the first overall pick. There's a couple of years ago, one of the most prolific quarterbacks in the history of college football. So I don't think we're going out on a major limb here and getting them at plus 116 is pretty intriguing. This division, it is tough because Big Ben is back. You obviously have the Ravens there as well, and the Bengals should be better. But the Ravens may regress from an awesome season last year. Big Ben, we don't know what his health will look like with that elbow surgery that he's coming off of. And the Bengals are still, they spend a lot of holes in their entire depth chart. So I think the Browns here at plus 116, a pretty good bet. The Ravens should still be the favorites of the division, always should be for sure. But I think with those three playoff, or those three wild card slots, the Browns a pretty good bet to slide into one of those. Remember that extra playoff spot is available here this year, both the AFC and of course the NAFC. And the Browns, those improvements along the offensive line are going to be a major boon to Baker Mayfield, who hopefully will put some of the offfield stuff aside and then get back to winning. Winning, here's everything. And everybody loves the offfield stuff when they're winning. We'll see if Baker Mayfield and the Browns can do just that do just that and make the playoffs here in 2020. Up next, we'll go out west where everybody's sort of counted out for Los Angeles Rams. That's very tough year last year. The genius of Sean McVeigh, doesn't exist anymore. Todd Gurley is gone. This team is a shadow of itself. Brandon Cooks is gone as well. And then you're buying back into the Rams to make the playoffs. The Niners of course in that division, a team that may be Super Bowl last season. Why do you buy in Los Angeles Rams resurgence in 2020? Yeah, it's a super tough division. It's not just the 49ers. You also got the Seahawks there who are plus or I think minus one, 22 to make the playoffs. The Cardinals are improved from where they were with the Andre Hopkins and Isaiah Simmons there. So this is going to be a tough division. But I think that that is being fully accounted for in these odds. I think we may be overreacting to what the Rams did last year. If I were to ask you, in theory, where you thought the Rams ranked in offensive passing efficiency last year, you probably wouldn't guess a number that's all that good. But they were actually the 10th best schedule-adjusted passing offense in all of football last year. They were actually a lot better than you would think. They played a tough schedule, but they really did improve down the stretch. Once they made some scheme changes, Jared Goff actually played pretty well making them a top 10 passing offense. And if you get a top 10 passing offense at plus 140 to make the playoffs, I find that pretty intriguing. And the thing about that number last year, ranking 10th in passing efficiency is that it happened, even though they had a lot of injuries, a wide receiver, Brandon Cooks missed time, Robert Woods missed a game due to a personal issue. Their offense in line was also decimated throughout the year. They weren't just bad at the beginning. They also had a ton of injuries as the year went along. Now all those guys come back and maybe they're not going to be great, but it gives you competition. It gives you choices. If one guy isn't very good, you can turn elsewhere. Competition in depth is good and the Rams are much better prepared along the offensive line this year than they were last year. So I would expect this offense to rebound from where it was last year. This defense is going to take a step back. They've lost a lot of talent there. We've filled snow longer in town. So I would expect the defense to struggle, but if I can get a passing offense, I expect it to perform well. At plus 140, I'm going to take that number pretty much every time. So the implied odds here, 42% based on the number to make the playoffs and Number Fire has been making the playoffs 45% of the time. So just a little bit of value, but I think I'm higher on the Rams offense than the Number Fire metrics are. So at plus 140, count me in on buying a Rams bounce back. A little bit higher on the Rams. The Number Fire is pretty good, but this division, man, it's really tough like you talked about the Niners making the Super Bowl of Seahawks making the playoffs. The Cardinals so much more improved. It's going to be tough, but don't count out Sean McBae. Don't count out this team that is going to be more prepared. We'd hope for this year a schedule that is not only defending NFC champions as it was a year ago. We'll see what happens with the Rams and if they get improved and if they can stay healthy, they should be able to make some noise out there in the NFC. One last team to talk about that we think are going to make the playoffs and this is not a popular one here, Jim. This is Houston Texans as we go back and close out the AFC South here. The Texans and Bill O'Brien did their thing training away Deandre Hopkins and just not getting anything back in return and training away draft picks and getting Brandon Cooks who as you mentioned just a moment ago missed some time last year as he does kind of every year. But you believe the Texans are still a good bet to make the playoffs as they seemingly always do. Why is that? It's kind of as you mentioned as they seemingly always do. I think that that makes a lot of sense. Yeah, Greg, they made a lot of really dumb decisions. No Deandre Hopkins. And we should be pessimistic about the long-term outlook of this team. But when you're getting the plus 144 in this specific division, I find that pretty enticing because the Titans, they're built around this wild style of play. We don't know if what Ryan Tannehill did last year, sustainable Derek Henry. Can he be as efficient as he was down the stretch last year? There are question marks there. We laid out the question marks around the Indianapolis Colts earlier on. And the Jaguars might be tanking. So this is a pretty wide open division. Meanwhile, you've got the Houston Texans kind of lurking there. They've gone to the playoffs for the past five years. And they've done so both years where Deshaun Watson has been fully healthy. He comes back. He is still there. And he is still good even though he does lose Deandre Hopkins. That matters. But it's still Deshaun freaking Watson. We want to bet on good quarterbacks. And Deshaun Watson is that. And I think given how good he was when their offensive line was bad, which it no longer is, I think we can expect Deshaun Watson to still perform at least decently well even in a worse situation with Deandre Hopkins being gone. So this is kind of just betting on Deshaun Watson and betting against the other players in this division. The Texans, yes. We can question all their moves and we should. And it does lower expectations of them. But a plus 144 to make the playoffs, I am going to buy back in here and hope that the issues for the Texans don't fully flesh themselves out until a couple of years down the line. The issues are going to pop up again. Hopefully it's not this year if you're taking this bet. It's a really good number. And I like how you called the Titans offense wildly interesting when it's just literally running the football over and over and over again. But nevertheless, we'll see what the Texans can do and they can make the playoffs as they seemingly always do. Once again, here in 2020. They have it. Those are the teams that are going to miss and make the playoffs the best that are worth taking over at the Fandals Sports Book right now. Jim Sannis, we appreciate the time and good luck. Thank you, Greg. Same to you. And I'm looking forward to you to talk about NASCAR once again next week. All I can hope is that next week we can get Bush, Bush, Dillon, Dillon, all in the lineup. I saw you tweeting about that earlier today. Hopefully the prices will change next week. So we'll be able to make that happen. But Jim Sannis, I'm Greg Sussman. Have a wonderful weekend. We'll see you next week. Stay safe, everybody.