 Okay, let me know if everybody can hear me. I'm gonna get started here. I'm gonna do a short lecture tonight just here looking at the market. So this is gonna be about volatility in the market. Can everybody see the chart and hear me? Let me know. So for those of you that do not know me, my name is Melissa Arbao and I teach my trading system in a class once a month on the weekends. The last class for 2018 is next week or this weekend actually. This week in December 15th and 16th. If you're interested in that course, you can go learn more on my website or you can feel free to email me. I'm gonna put this here. My email at Melissa at thestockswish.com. This is the last class for the year and if you'd like a trial to the trading room Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday for this week before the class, you can email me. I can send you a free trial as well. So I want to go over volatility in the market and I'm gonna talk about this and I'm gonna look at the spy. I mean, I could look at anything here. The spy, the QQQs, the diamonds. But I'm gonna look here at the spy, okay? So going forward in 2019, it's gonna be a very volatile year for the market. Now, what does that mean for you if you want to jump into trading? Or what does it mean for you if you're currently trading? If you're currently trading right now, you're gonna have to be prepared for more volatility in 2019 than you've seen this year. So if you've been trading, you've seen that we've had volatility in particularly even in the last few days. It's gonna be more of that in 2019. In fact, it's gonna be much more of that. It's gonna become the normal most in 2019. It's gonna be more volatility in 2019 than in 2018. And you've kind of started to see a little bit of this now. This is, it started, okay? Started already in the last couple of days. Now, is that something that you should be scared about if you are trading? Is that something that should worry you if you're thinking about trading? No. In fact, there's opportunity and volatility in the market. If you're a trader, or even if you're an investor, that means it's volatility equals opportunity, which means the possibility of you profiting more than normal, okay? So when I'm saying we're gonna have more volatility in 2019 than we had this year, that means there's gonna be more possibility, more potential for people to take advantage of moves in stocks, which is opportunity for those traders who know how to get the direction right in whatever it is that they're trading. Whether it's the overall market, whether it's stock specific, okay, usually I'm looking at specific stocks, but every once in a while we will trade the market. It's gonna come together though to be the same thing, meaning, meaning that you're going to have big opportunity if you know what to do, and if you don't know what to do, you're gonna get killed this year in the market. So in other words, let's just say you've been losing money trading the last few years, not a lot, but some. You're gonna have a year in 2019 where you could lose a lot of money if you don't know how to trade. So the danger in volatility is that if you do not focus and have a set system that is consistently profitable, just doing the regular things that you've been doing to get along to try to make it as a trader are not gonna work, the last couple of days have even proved that, and I'm gonna show you what I mean in a minute, and you really should not trade the market if you don't know what to do, you just shouldn't. And it's gonna be a year where I think it'll be important to follow a mentor, someone like me that knows how to even read the market. All right? Now, everyone's been talking about volatility and everyone's been talking about the market selling off. The market held today, you can see it's very obvious. However, I do believe the market holds the uptrend in 2019, but I don't think the selling is done. So if you want to day trade the market, you're gonna have to know how to do two things. One, go long and two, go short. And going short is gonna be important in 2019. Why? Because when you have sell-off moves that occur in stocks of the market, they could tend to be larger in 2019. More so than normal. So you will wanna trade to the downside. If you're an active trader, you will want to be shorting. You will want to know how to short, you wanna be good at shorting. It will be important to know how to short if you've never shorted before, don't understand it, or if you're not good at shorting, you gotta get good at it because it's gonna be a lot of opportunity to the downside. Again, this doesn't mean that the market is going to follow a cliff. It doesn't mean the market's gonna change trend to the downside, even though people think that now and are gonna think that, are gonna still say that. That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying in general, when your scene sell-off days in the market, which we saw, we saw on Friday, we saw last week on the fourth. We saw back here, early October, mid October. We saw it also here in November. So and here, here and here, this was the October 24th. So these big red bars created selling in the market and I could be looking at anything here. I could be looking at, I could be looking at Apple. Apple, so let's pull Apple up. Everybody knows Apple. Apple's been a short. I wouldn't even go long Apple today, even though it bounced. Apple has been a short here to day trade in the long-term, Apple's still holding so far. But if you had bought puts or options in Apple or if you had shorted Apple's day trades, you see the sell-off that this stock has had. This is from November 2nd. Thoffacliff, okay. November 2nd, the price on Apple was, and again, this is, I'm showing you examples here what I mean by volatility and how there was lots of money to be made if you played these things right. And I'm just picking Apple, I could have picked something else, but I just wanna show you. Apple gap down here, open at 209.55 on this day on the second. Low today was what? 163, that's crazy, okay. Show a 50-point move down in basically a month. That's a big move for a stock like this, even. Big, okay. So you would have made money if you had shorted Apple on various different days as day trades and if you had done puts. Now, everyone's been talking about volatility. As I said, what do I mean by volatility and what does it mean? And why is it important to know what to do? I mean, first of all, you should always know what to do when you trade. You should never risk your money in the market without knowing how to trade. That's like period, just end their story and yet a lot of people do. But particularly in 2019, that's gonna be extremely important, why? Because the market's gonna be tricky and that's what real volatility is. Real volatility is not just where you have a big day and that big day is up or that big day is down. Real volatility is here. For example, I'll show you what I mean. This day here, the market opened down, fell, sold off, flipped, ran up. Everybody thought the market was turning around, rallying. Then the next day, open only slightly lower. Rallying was green, broke, fell off a cliff, almost broke the lower the previous day, showed off bad, showed off hard. Then today, dropped gap down, well, a little bit down. Then fell, completely flipped around, got bought. And now it's up tonight in the after hours. So volatility is really this thing where the market are stuck. I keep looking at Timbuktu right now. I'm just trying to show you an example of volatility and why it's gonna be so important to know what you're doing. And we talked about this in the trading room today. It was a great lecture about conviction. I'll talk about that in a minute. But anyways, volatility is woo, woo, woo. And it's like not even just Monday we're down and Tuesday we're up and then Wednesday we're up and no follow through then Thursday we're down. Volatility is like opening lower and then rallying and dropping and breaking and flipping around to the day. And that is what you've seen the last couple of days and that is what you are gonna continue to see. And I'm not saying every single day. I'm saying a lot more of it. A lot, okay? So what does that mean? It means that you need to have and understand what you're doing and have a bias for the directional way that you're gonna take something. And it also is gonna be important to get out with money when you're up. Because for example, if you were short the market today and I'm gonna bring up a 15 minute chart just to show you, and we didn't do this but I'm just gonna show you this is a good example here. If you were short the market today, you were out money, fell off a cliff in here into the morning, low of the day was set right into 11 o'clock. If you were up, you were short, you were up here, you were up money. And if you didn't get out of it, the market completely flipped around. You would have been up and then lost. So in this market, when you are up, you also look, we're gapping up tonight. We're gonna get up tomorrow morning, I think. In this market, you have to also book profits in a big move, which this was if you were short the market today. Because if you don't book the profits, it could flip around quickly. But anytime you trade, you should make sure you book profits, okay? Now, any questions about anything I've just talked about here right now? So, what's the takeaway so far here? The market is gonna be volatile in 2019. You need to know what to do, more so than you have ever needed to. And you have to have conviction in the direction that you're taking a specific trade. You either have conviction it's higher or you have conviction it's lower. Now, if you have a conviction that's something's higher, guess what, you're gonna buy it. If you have conviction something's lower, guess what, then you short it. But you can have conviction something's a long and a short in the same day. That's what really screws up your head, okay? And if that's how you fail, then guess what? You don't have any conviction at all. I was talking about this in the trading room today, lecturing because one of my students admitted that he did something wrong, okay? He took a trade that on his own, it wasn't a trade that I call, but he took a trade on his own in the room on the day and he made money in it. But it was a trade that was in the wrong direction and yet he made money in it, okay? And I gave a lecture this morning, I said, listen, that was a wrong action that actually had a positive outcome. And the problem is when you tell yourself mentally, okay, intellectually and even feeling it because when you make money, you feel happy. So when you take wrong actions and then there's a positive outcome, it's bad for you as a trader. Because eventually it'll come back to bite you in the butt because you might have one bad action with a good positive outcome, which would be profit because every trade that you take, you wanna make money. So that's always the outcome that you are hoping to achieve. But the problem is that a lot of people take actions in the market as traders. They are wrong actions. They produce a positive outcome, which is money. Then they think that they know how to trade. They keep trading. In the long run, obviously they're losing money because they're doing the wrong actions, but because they've trained their brain and taught themselves even to feel happy even emotionally that what they're doing is good because sometimes it results in money. They train themselves to do wrong actions and they continue to lose. That is gonna rip people apart in 2019. I mean, people are going to lose big time that are day traders in 2019 if they don't know what to do. Like, I just know it. I can see it. And the last three days is great example. Actually the last week. The last week, because I'm gonna go all the way back, rewind a week ago. This was Friday, there was a summit. Over the weekend, 11.30, there was a summit over the weekend. The market had a big gap up here in 12.3. Now, I called an option in the train letter, in the option letter that was profitable immediately. I called it on Friday. People took it and got out on Monday with profit. But the market didn't follow through higher here. But a lot of people might have thought and jumped in long here as traders thinking that the market was gonna go higher because we did show a lot of strength here. A lot of strength. And as again, as I said, I'm bullish on the market long term. But in the moment here, the market wasn't a buy on this day, didn't set up correctly as a day trade. But people did go long. How do I know? Now I'm gonna pretend, in fact, let me just go to the day chart of that. 12.3. Oops, hold on, 12.3. Here. This is 12.3. Now I'm looking at a 15 minute chart. This is 12.3. So people went long here. How do I know you can see? Market dropped, fell, held. Do you see in here it held? I guess it set the low of the day around 11.45. So people went long in here. Now it didn't go anywhere. But people were long in the market. Guess what happened then? Do it. This is the next day. And then that was the next day. And then look at that. So do you see what I'm saying here? But this is the trickiness of it because this was a big move up from the close to the open. And whatever the reason was, we were gonna make a deal with China with the tariffs, whatever, it just didn't follow through. And then it's no surprise that the market fell off a cliff here on the fourth, which was the next day. So the points that I'm trying to make is that volatility is something that you can profit from if you know how to trade it, but if you don't, you will lose. And the normal things like buying support and shorting resistance and looking for higher highs and higher lows and lower highs and lower lows are just not gonna work in 2019. It's like a new game now. It's like the rules have changed. The rules are you gotta know what you're doing. Personally, I think you always needed to know what you were doing trading. I mean, I just never got lucky even when I started out 10 years ago making money with dumb luck, I just never did. The market forced me to trade well and figure this out in the correct manner. I just never got lucky. But sometimes people get lucky and they take wrong actions and have a positive outcome. Consistently over the long haul, they don't win. But in that moment that they're taking those wrong actions or bad trades and profiting from them, they're really messing up their head and messing up their mind and their eyes when they read a chart because they're gonna take that wrong action again. And it's gonna create not a positive outcome but a negative outcome and particularly in 2019. And when people were along the market overnight here from this day, this is a good example of what I mean and same in this day too. Because this in fact, this is in fact here. In fact even today. Now I believe it's a possibility we could gap up tomorrow morning but I don't think the market's gonna be a buy tomorrow. Now what if we do rally? Does that mean it's a buy? No, cause we could fall around and turn around the next day or in the second. And this is what I mean. So again, I teach people how to day trade. Now, you know, if you've never day traded before and you like to do swing trades, I'm telling you day trades is gonna be much, much easier than doing swing trades or overnights in 2019 because when you're a day trader in nimble, you're in and you're out. You're in, you're out. You're in, you're out. Sometimes we're in five minutes, sometimes we're in out in 10 minutes, sometimes we're in out in an hour. If something's continuing to go, go, go, go, go, I'm gonna go to the trade from Friday. This was a good call too. This you could have been in. You could have been in it all day. But again, I don't like to do that, but you could have been in it all day. Stock rally, we shorted it, fell, dropped and broke, closed near the lows. So you could have been in this trade. This was big. This is a trade from Friday. You could have been in this all day. But that's rare. That's so, so rare. The point is that the idea of quick trades, fast trades is really gonna be more attractive in 2019. Because you're gonna wanna be out of your trade with the money before the market does something crazy. And today again, is a good example because the market completely flipped around, okay? But the volatility allows the opportunity for you to make money as long as you read it right. But if you don't, you're gonna get hurt, okay? Volatility is a good thing. Momentum is a good thing. Volume is a good thing. All these things are good things. Big moves are good things, okay? But like anything else, you have to have the correct directional bias, which is am I going long-ness or am I shorting it? Is it gonna move higher or is it gonna move lower? Because you wanna get the power, the source of the power. So where's the source of the power? In the case you're a big, and I'm gonna put it up the daily, the power here in big was to the downside, actually spelled today. I said people could do this in the room today. I said 29, wow, it got there. I don't know if anyone did this, I did not, but I called in the room at some point, very late. I said this is probably gonna get to 29 today, you could do it. It did, it got there, well, even with the market balance that got there. Anyways, the momentum in big was down, okay? So this is a short, it was a short. Now, I'm gonna go and show you the trade from Friday. And does anyone have any questions? I'm just talking, talking, talking here. Again, I'm just using charts to talk tonight. I don't really have a set PowerPoint to go over. So ask me any questions, this is a free-for-all tonight, just with charts. This is big, I'm going back from Friday. Here. So this was Friday. Stock gap down, rallied. We shorted it, we had to stop in, stop hell. Then it pushed back. Dangerous, we're trying to buy this dip in here. When it flipped and rallied over the high, thinking it would fill the gap. The directional bias in big to be in it was short, not a long. But a lot of traders got this wrong. How do I know? That's the reason it lifted. The stock one have lifted here or here, if people weren't trying to pick it up. So there were people buying it, or the stock one have lifted, they bought it here and they bought it here, but it didn't go anywhere, it stalled. It stalled, it was doot and went dead. Selling pressure came in, the bears, the bears took over control. Boom, boom, boom, they sold it. This is the ceiling, this is the resistance. They sold into the resistance, the people in control. How do I know? Because I read the gap. I rate the gap each morning, and that's what you learn in my class, to determine if big is a longer or short. Now I determined this was a short. So we shorted it, even though when we were in the trade, we were down before we went positive. But that's what conviction is about, and that is going to be the norm in 2019. Sometimes we have to wait for something to go. But you gotta hold on to it, hold the conviction. In this case here, day traders though tried to buy it, and it lost. Big was not a long, it was a short. This was a nice call. So as you see, this is probably also one of the reasons it continued down today. Now, there's one tonight that I was watching, Stitch Fix or whatever. I saw it earlier. Ooh, what did it do? This was up earlier. Okay, we're gonna look at this. This is a live gap. For those of you that don't know what I do, I only trade gaps. Now I'm gonna put this back on. Wow, I am shocked at this. So before I actually did the webinar, here, I'm gonna get this off. This reported tonight was all the way up almost at 30, 29, 40, 28, 80. This just turned around in the time that I was talking. Look at that. Whoa, this is, phew. Now I'm not gonna rank this here, but Stitch Fix is gapping down. It will open lower tomorrow morning, I think. I mean, this could flip around. But as of right now, if this was 9.30 and the open at 4.51, if it was 9.30, this would be gapping down from the close. Today's close was 25.97. Right now, the stock is trading where, 23.70. So anyways, long story short, let me put this back on. This I will rate in the morning if it's down to determine if it's a short or a long. That is what you would learn in my class. And that is what you would, that's what I teach. And then I teach the entries how to do it. But if this holds the gap down, I will definitely be rating this tomorrow. I was thinking I was gonna rate this as a gap up when I looked at it right before the webinar, like at 4.15. But look at this thing, this is completely flipped. So this is a watch either way. For those of you that wanna watch it, here it is, SFIX. But anyways, like everything else, guess what? You gotta get it right. So my rating system determines if it's a good long or short based on the points. It's a 26 point rating system. If it rates 20 points or more, you can take it in the direction of the gap. If it doesn't, you're not supposed to do it at all. And that's how it works. Any questions from anyone so far about anything at all? And I'm gonna quickly look and see if there's anything else out tonight that we can look at. I took the thing off a second, just hang on. I just wanna see if there's any other things reporting. Any questions though, but anything I said so far? Oh, do do do do do. Cars, let's look if that's moving. Looks like news. No, it's not going anywhere. Anything else happening here? Okay, Casey, let's look at that. This is down. Here's another one. Here, this is happening right now. Not as much volume as SFIX for sure, but this is gapping down. 415, high in here was 118. Where's the stock right now? 113.63. Where did this close? 119.68. So where did it close? Here. Where is it now? Here. Again, I don't do anything with these after hours. I don't do anything in the post market. I don't do anything in the pre market, but I rate them. But we're not trading these now tonight or tomorrow morning, but we're watching them, we're rating them. I'm determining. I don't know if this is good or not. And this will look very different than it between now and tomorrow morning. So we'll stitch fix because as stocks move and especially the volume in this, they wiggle and jiggle and wiggle and jiggle around and they will get some traction. Or they could flip. But the nice thing is if you want to come and learn my method, you will be prepped and ready to go before the market opened what you like, what you want to trade, whether or not you should go long or short, how you want to do it, which is the best watches. We're not waiting and doing nothing to see what the market does or waiting an hour to even look at editing at 10 o'clock or 1030, okay? We're in and out quick, we're in and out fast. That's going to be an important piece, I think of being successful in 2019 as an active day trader, you will have to be active. You will have to be nimble. You will want to get out of the profits. You've got to get out when you're up. Today the market fell. It might have held on, it did not. In the morning, it held on by the close, but in the morning the market dropped, okay? Again, we didn't do anything with this today because it was just, the read was not there in the pre-market with the gap. But I'm not surprised that we fell and I'm not surprised that we rallied. It's going to be lots, lots more of that, okay? Does anyone here have any questions about any specific stocks? Anything about my system? Anything you want to ask me about the gap class? Anything at all? I see some people that have been here that have followed me for a while that have been joined. I don't know what you're waiting for. Do you have questions for me? What? Ask me now. Just wanting to give a lecture tonight really about volatility and charts. And for those of you that signed in late, you missed what I said at the beginning, 2019 is going to be a volatile year in the market. You're going to need to know what to do to make money. It's not going to be like normal trading. It's going to be wild, but that's going to be an opportunity for people that know how to do it, for people that know how to trade. Like for real, not dumb luck, as I said the example earlier. So be smart about what you do and the choices that you make and make sure that you have conviction in something before you take the trade. Don't take pot shots and stuff. Even if you're doing small size, even if you're only doing 300 shares, you really should believe in the trade before you even take it. Any questions from anyone? Everyone is super quiet tonight. Everyone is either mesmerized by everything I've just said or does anyone have any questions? If you want a trial to the trading room this week, you can email me here. If you have questions about the class or you want to sign up, you can email me at Melissa at thestockswish.com too, okay? Nobody has any questions at all. This is a very quiet group. Can everybody hear me talking? Kathy, do you have sound? Not one single question? I mean, I'm here to answer anybody's questions. I just wanted to do a chart lecture today for something different instead of a PowerPoint. Thank you, Kathy. All right, listen. If you people think of something and you want to email me, you can tonight or tomorrow at Melissa at thestockswish.com. If you have questions about the gap class, about volatility, day trading in general, okay? If you need a referral for a broker as well, you can email me. Proper retail, okay? So I think 2019 is gonna be a very, very interesting year to day trade. It's going to be one of those years that you will want to participate if you know what you're doing. You won't want to miss it. And if you don't know what you're doing, you're gonna get hurt. So it's just, it's gonna separate the men from the boys kind of thing. And personally, I'm looking forward to that because I'm very good at what I do. But if you know that you're not good at what you do, then you really need to follow someone that does know what they're doing or get some kind of education behind you where you learn a system that is gonna benefit you for the following year because just doing different things every day and taking potshots is just simply not gonna work next year. And so people are gonna get hurt. And the last week is such a great example of that just the way the market's been because true volatility is the way that we've seen the last couple of days. It's not just, you know, you think everything is over and we're gonna rally and then falls. It's like woo, woo, woo, woo. And it's gonna be lots and lots and lots of that. And people are gonna just go nuts. And people are gonna get scared. And so there's no reason to be scared. Learn how to read it. Learn how to read price action. That's what you learn in my class. Get good at technical analysis. It's advanced technical analysis. You gotta get good at it. This is advanced technical analysis that you'll learn from you. Learn how to read price action and gaps. And when you learn how to read gaps, you will know how to read price action. It's one of the reasons how I knew the market would make new highs this year, which I said a couple of weeks ago whenever I saw it. It's one of the reasons I'm telling you that the market's gonna be more volatile next year. And one of the reasons I'm telling you that I believe the market holds the uptrend. Unless there's a war, I mean that I can't predict. If there's a war, all bets are off and you can't really predict what's gonna happen in more times. But other than that, I believe the market holds the uptrend. Good luck, everyone. Have a good night. Have a good week. Email me if you have questions at ballistaatthestalkswitch.com or if you wanna trial to the room, think about the things I said tonight, okay? Galahad, do you have a question? Nope, okay. All right, everybody. I will see some of you tomorrow and the rest of you if you have any questions, just email me. Thank you, Kathy. You're welcome.