 Welcome to TickMail Weekly Market Outlook for week menacing the 30th of September with me, Patrick Munnally. Looking for a busy week of top-tier data in the US this week with more information to assess the state of the US economy. Key releases include Tuesday's factory activity gauge, the ISM Manufacturing Index, which had surprised with a contraction in August. Weakness is expected to continue with another sub-50 reading market consensus. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is due Wednesday. The services sector is expected to remain supported by red bus consumer demand. As usual, the official gauges were also accompanied by the concurrent release of the final readings of market PMIs for both the manufacturing and services sectors. In addition to the PMI readings, the official job report comprising of non-farm payrolls, unemployment rates and wage growth alongside is due on Friday. Markets look for the nascent softer trend to continue to develop. The week will be wrapped up with US trade data, with US dollar strength and trade negotiations continuing to weigh on non-oil exports. So now we have an understanding of the fundamental drivers for the weekend. Let's take a quick look at what the technicals are saying. The dollar index has duly retested prior cycle highs towards a nice 930 area. We've been unable to take those out at the current's advance. And if we stall here, there's the potential to put in quite a meaningful double top. Note the momentum divergence that continues to weigh. And as such, if we fail to break new highs here, break new ground to the upside, then I'll be looking for a pullback or corrected phase back towards the 9750 area. However, if we do take out the current cycle highs, then I'm looking for the next phase of resistance to occur at the 9970, which represents the yearly R1 pivots. Are we looking for bearish reversal patterns in and around this level to set short positions? Again, looking for a corrective phase back to test this 9750 support area. Once we're checking in with the dollar, let's take a look at what gold's been doing. Gold duly tested up to the anticipated resistance in the 1535 area. And as search sellers stepped in, we now see the potential for an equality objective down at the 1460 area. However, if we fail to take out the support in the 1480 area, look for further consolidation and likely retest of offers back towards the 1535 level. In Canada, a pair of releases, one old and one new, will restore a bit of interest in the domestic calendar. But external risks are likely to continue to dominate market influences. First up will be what happened to the GDP growth in July, trade figures for August are due on Friday and will advance understanding of the impact of the global weaknesses. The loony has continued to consolidate in a relatively tight range between 133 and 13250 from most of last week. As 133 continues to act as resistance, then I'm anticipating a test of the equality objective down towards 131. However, if we hold the range support at the 13250 and can't track lower, then I'd be looking for an equality upside objective to retest prior cycle highs at the 13380 area. In Europe, the main data to watch out for is Monday's employment data, which has started to trend lower. Tuesday sees manufacturing PMI with recent German weakness likely to weigh. Thursday will see the services PMI readings. Once again, labour market strength likely supports in the services sector. The euro broke to new year lows this week, testing down towards support at the 109 area. And we consolidated within the test zone that we placed when we made the Thursday low and we had closed with an inside bearish inside bar on Friday. However, if we can hold that potential double bottom there, then I see a test of the descending trend line resistance at the 11040 as the next upside objective. However, if we do take out last week's lows, then I'll be looking for a swift move down to test the descending trend line support down to the 108 area. Again, similar to the dollar index, note the consistent divergence from a momentum perspective, which suggests that we can still likely form a base here to test higher in the euro. Whilst we're checking it with the euro, let's take a look at what's going on with the DAX. The DAX held the anticipated support zone at the 12,200 level. As this level survives now, I'll be looking for a new high to test the 12,700 level. Once we get up into this area, I'll be watching for intraday reversal patterns to set short positions, targeting a move down to test the projected ascending trend line support back down at 12,100. Across the channel in the UK, the final reading of second quarter GDP growth is due Monday, followed by market PMI's Tuesday, its manufacturing readings weighed likely by the Brexit uncertainties. Thursday's services reading could also be hampered by political pressures, leading to potential recession concerns. Sterling duly pulled back from the resistance area highlighted in last week's analysis, and we're now testing the anticipated support zone back down towards the 12,285 area. As this area acts as support, there's the potential to build another leg of upside to retest the prior highs back up towards the 126 level. However, a failure below 122 will be a bearish development, opening a retest of bids down to 120. PMI readings make up most of the Asian docket in Japan, aside from industrial production, retail sales, the jobless rate and market PMI's. Market watchers will be paying close attention to the Bank of Japan's quarterly tank and survey released Tuesday, which provides a gauge of the country's large and small business capex and general outlook with both global and domestic weakness, Unlikely small capex, particularly in the manufacturing sector. The Dollar Yen duly held the anticipated support zone of 107, and as it does, there's the potential to complete a sequence now to test offers above 10950. However, a failure back below 107 will extend the correction, and we could see an equality objective test back down towards 10650 before trying to make another leg of upside recovery. Down under in Australia, Tuesday's RBA is expected to cut the cash rate to 0.75% in response to global and domestic challenges. Friday we'll see August retail sales, which will likely be softer than expected, although tax cuts could provide some temporary boost. From a technical perspective, the Australian Dollar has pulled back to test the 67 level of support. If I step in here, I still see an opportunity for another leg of corrective upside to test offers towards the descending trend line resistance at the 69 level. However, a failure below 67 will be a bearish development, opening a move down to test support to the 66 level. And that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing 30th of September.