 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of theAxisToTrader.com. Nightly wrap up show up. Everybody is doing well. Crazy day, right? Crazy, crazy day. Apparently the sun still came up depending where you live in the world. You know, you saw, you know, we talked about over the weekend, so many, you know, so many people uneducated, fear mongers coming out, lock limit, the market's going to be down. Everything's going down. Everything's going to zero. Right. Okay. So everybody relaxed, right? Everybody took a deep breath. And so the futures were up. Then they started giving back their gains very, very aggressively, right? You know, kind of, here's my takeaway. You have three banks now. Okay. You have, let's see here, you have S, B, and Y. Okay. Well, let's start them in order. You have S, I, V, B gone, right? S, B, and Y gone. You have S, I, you know, pretty much gone. So you have three banks. Three banks in the last week have been gone. Okay. Really quickly. You know, we had a lot of, a lot of back and forth today. Okay. I think you can, you can, you can see that in a lot of charts. I believe the NASDAQ 100 held up fairly well. Okay. This morning they got below the 50 day moving average below Friday's low, you know, pretty going down and got saved by the Bollinger Band. The two year, kind of, I'm just getting text messages from a whole bunch of other stuff. But the two year yield went down well, 4% at one point. There was a lot of speculation and rumors that this session on March the 22nd, not only will they stop raising rates, there's a shot, right? There's an absolute shot that they could cut rates. I think it's a very, very small shot, but there's a shot. And obviously technology with that type of news, like that news, they liked the falling, falling yields and we started rallying. And it looked really, really good at one point. I know you had technology completely disconnecting from what you saw in the regional banks. At one point we were about to take out the previous day's channel and reclaim it, which would have been super duper bullish going into tomorrow's session. And then the last half hour of the day, you got this big-ass ugly candle back down, and now we are stuck right back in the middle of the ranges, which is terrible, right? Which is absolutely terrible. Before I logged off and went to get my daughter from school, I said, hey, at least if we can close closest to the upper range, it doesn't make a difference what these regional banks are going to do going into tomorrow's session. The most important thing is technology. If we could reclaim the 10-day moving average, maybe we started getting another day up. Like, look at Tesla, for example, today. Tesla had a nice move, lost its 50-day moving average, reclaimed the 50-day moving average, put it in a hammer. It looked really, really good, and then it got rejected at the top of the range. And you see a lot of stocks looking like that. And then you combine that with the carnage in all these regional banks. Today you had, let's see what else we had today. You had FRC, I believe it was called, right? FRC, I mean disaster. Charles Schwab. I mean, they're really taking down Schwab. What is it? SH? What is it? SH? SH? WC? I can't remember. You know, Charles Schwab. Schwab is getting killed. You had all these regionalists continue to go lower. Ally Financial, another name is getting taken down. They have another, they have also big exposure to the same kind of scenario that SIVB did. $18 puts, weeklies, $20 weekly puts, something like that. So you had a lot of carnage still in that space. And now the question is, what's going to happen tomorrow from the trading aspect? I personally thought, and I was going to lead with that today on the video, I personally thought if the market could have brushed off the news today, right? Could have really brushed off the second wave of news and starting, you know, started to put in this kind of tone deaf reality, kind of like what we did during the pandemic. After a while, you know, every single day, COVID, COVID, COVID. The market literally got numb to COVID and the market started rallying. I thought if the market could have shaken that off today, especially in the NASDAQ and closed above the 10-day moving average, or at least in the striking distance of above the 10-day moving average, I thought we had a legitimate shot tomorrow of disconnecting and having big, big moves. So if you look, for example, today in the middle of the day, Apple had a really, really strong move, right? And then sold off $3 off the highs. Microsoft had an incredibly, incredibly strong move today. Sold off $4 off the highs. You kind of get where I'm going with this. So we kind of left this in a really, really tough spot going into tomorrow's session. Combine that with incredible volatility. I mean, if you traded today and you were an active participant today in the markets, you kind of saw everything was happening on one candle. The sell-offs were happening on one candle. The rallies were happening on one candle. The emergency press conference that was supposed to be scheduled at 11.30. I have no idea if there was actually news that came out of that emergency press conference. But we did get some trinkets. The Fed is backstopping these companies. It's basically all deposits. Everybody feel free to go to sleep nice and calmly today. FDIC under $250,000. I think it's half a million dollars with securities as well, cash and securities. So if you have that under, you shouldn't have any problems falling to sleep right now. They're definitely going in the direction of auctioning off all these potential banks that are looking for their closures of doors. I think HSBC bought a piece today of some sort of ARMF SIVB. So I think that is kind of the roadmap that the Treasury and FDIC is kind of playing right now. It doesn't appear that they want to bail anybody out. Okay, that's a whole completely different conversation. But the most important aspect right now is from the trading side. And this is where I think, again, we're going to run into some problems tomorrow. You know, I found today very, very, I found today agitating, right? I shorted some Tesla, made some money. I shorted some of the video, I lost some money. And then the next thing I know, you know, the next thing I pretty much stopped trading after that, at least day trading after that. And the next thing I know, I just like, you know, the market was moving but things were going to supply. The future was getting pulled and nothing was really going down. So I kind of just sat there going, you know what, let me see how this day kind of plays out. And then tomorrow we'll start over. But now that I'm looking at all these charts, man, everything is literally in the middle of the range. You're not going to short these, at least you're not going to short most of these, you know, these regional banks. Because some of these things are down 60, 70%, 50% in a matter of two, three days. At the same time, when you start looking at these things to the upside, you know, these bids disappear so quickly that even if you had a $2, $3 move, you know, like this, I think it was, you know, whatever I would say, FRC, whatever people are trading, that $30 stock, I went to like 19, came back to 35. But the point is, you know, it's going to be a very, very tough session tomorrow. I think this is one of those days where even now back to back days that you kind of let the market, you know, do the heavy lifting for us, either get us back to the bottom of the range on the queues or get us on top of the range of the queues to kind of signify which way the market is going. I would love to see another day that technology completely disconnects again from what we see in the overall broader market, because that's going to give us a pretty good idea that, hey, maybe technology is because of the speculation of maybe no rate hikes on the March 22nd meeting. Maybe they'll shake it off, maybe they'll run into this meeting, but who knows? I mean, who knows what happens? But right now, technically, we're not in a great place. And you can see that just by the queues. I got rejected twice, guys, right down these levels. The NASDAQ, the QQQs got rejected twice off this 294.40s level, right? You got rejected there Friday, you got rejected there today. That's the area that the bulls need to reclaim. On the downside, the bearers need to reclaim 285. So you can see we closed at 280, right? Excuse me, we closed at 290. So 294.5 to the upside, 285 to the downside, and we're at 290, right? Right in the middle. So basically, you could take a coin, and luckily I have a dime on my hand, right? You could take a coin, you could flip it, right? And wherever it lands, hopefully, right? Hopefully it'll go back in that range, but that's it. It's the market we got right now, okay? And there's two things you can do. You can sit there, cry and bitch and moan and this, this thing, or get chopped up, or just realize, hey, this is what it is right now. It's just, it is what it is. This is a massive spin cycle, not every single week. You get three bank failures, right? It's just, it's not really a normal thing. So you're going to, you know, you're going to get volatility. You're going to get whipsawed. You're going to get whipped out every single way. Again, there's a formula to this. You know, you scale down your side. You scale down your activity levels. You wait for, you know, you know, repeat option flow and whatever you're looking at. And if you're starting to get a repeat option flow, especially out of the money and short-term expiration, that's the trade you kind of want to, you know, kind of gravitate to. Not just random moves. You know, Tesla's going higher. Tesla's going lower. It doesn't work that way. You need, you need a strong organic market when you have this much news, this much spin cycle with the Fed, with the Treasury. And oh, by the way, we have CPI coming in tomorrow, right? You got CPI coming in tomorrow at 8.30. I believe the median is about 6%. We'll see, you know, we'll see what happens there. I'm not going to try to try to, you know, try to chop up exactly what's going to happen in the CPI. You know, there's a fine line right now. Is it, you know, is it called, is it's called extinction of the banking system? I'm obviously exaggerating. I'm just kind of showing how stupid it sounds. I'm picturing all day that's happening on social media or taming the Fed. Again, we'll know exactly what's the most important tomorrow with the CPI. And obviously we're going to get a little bit more, you know, kind of feedback and a little bit more clarity come the March 22nd meeting. But again, from when you see Goldman Sachs doesn't expect a rate hike. Okay. You know, I've seen some videos over the weekend, some economists talking that they would not be shocked at all. If you, if we got even a rate cut, even if there's 25 basis points. So a lot of things on the table and the scariest thing of all, if you think about it from this point of view, imagine you're short, right? You're short. And then out of nowhere, they cut 25 basis points here. You're dead. I mean, you're dead. You know, you're DOA man, right? Dead on arrival as soon as you put on your position. So we're in a tricky cycle right now. It's not just as clean as, you know, we, you know, we do our previous nights research. We're prepared on both sides. It doesn't work like that right now. You know, right now we are in a very, very sensitive area. Emotions eye, traders are all over the place. Everybody's frustrated this, that and the third. My job is to keep everybody calm. My job is to keep everybody rationalized. And most important, my job is to keep everybody in business. So they realize what we're up against versus what we've been seeing and thriving for, you know, many, many years. And this will go away, right? And the next day or two, you're probably going to have a little bit of a contraption and volatility. That's exactly what we want. We, you know, sooner than later, we're either going to close above this 294.5 on the 10 day or close below this 295 and start getting a little bit more organic clarity and a lot more seamless setups than we have up and down, up and down, up and down, up and down is not good for anybody. It brings out a lot of emotions, brings out a lot of anxiety, brings out a lot of stress, and it brings out a lot of indecision. And when you're trading, you have to be incredibly confident in what you're doing or else, like I said, right? With a dime, it's a coin flip. And that's exactly what we don't want. So going into tomorrow, we have our levels on the cues. If you look at the spies, right? Spies, again, another inverted hammer, you know, sold off. I mean, look at the volume that's selling off and, you know, is sold off into the close. I mean, so, you know, look, nobody, nobody is in a sweet spot right now. Everybody's trying to get as much data as possible. But everybody, and this is kind of the most important part, everybody's trying to make it to the next day. So if you find yourself a little bit more, a little bit less active today and you find yourself a little bit less active tomorrow, it's a sign of maturity. It's not a sign of weakness. It's not the same as, you know, as the market's going down, you have to sit on your hands, cash us a position. No, that's an excuse. But when you have whipsaw and you have a very, very big aggression on the same candle, up and down, up and down, up and down. That's when you want to put yourself in a position of kind of collecting more data and reacting a little bit less. They're putting your feet in the line of fire and just say, well, let's hope my feet don't get burnt. Again, it's all the long game, guys. Think long game. It's not about tomorrow. It's about your career. Guys, have a great night, everybody. Stay blessed. Stay safe. Again, be well aware of what's going on. And hopefully, God's help. I'll see you all tomorrow. Take care.