 Welcome to another International Relations capsule for the Shankar IAS Academy. Today the topic we have chosen is recent trends in geopolitics. We have been discussing in the last few months the various developments that have been taking place all around the world from country to country region to region. What we are trying to do today is to look at this whole scene, the international scene and see whether we can identify certain trends which have a bearing on the future of the world or the future of various countries and particularly to India. In other words, what are the contours of or the shape of the post-pandemic world as it has emerged till now? That is the purpose of this. When the pandemic broke out, people started making predictions about the future. Two predictions struck me most. Henry Kissinger said that the world is going to be entirely different from what it was in 2019. The world of the post-pandemic world will be beyond recognition. Another American intellectual Richard Haas, also a Republican, said that what we will see will be an acceleration of the trends which are already in history. The pandemic will accelerate them and things may change but there will still be some continuity in international relations. What we are seeing in the last three years or so is more towards the direction of Mr. Haas's prophecy. Many of the trends that we were actually seeing in the world have picked up speed and many things have moved much faster than it would have without the pandemic. Because we still do not have an exact idea as to what the world would be. But we can pick up a few things which indicate that humanity is a particularly determined species and we do not change very much. We remain within the sphere that we are familiar with and adjust ourselves to the new situation. There is already a feeling that normalcy is going to return or in other words the new norms may not be altogether different from the old but with the characteristics of the new situation that is emerging after the pandemic has dealt with the world. One of the major concerns was what the demographic composition of the world would be as a result of the millions of people who have perished and also the equations among countries of the world. To make a quick recounting of what happened, you will remember that the first casualty of the pandemic was the collapse of the multilateral system. Normally the United Nations should have resented the location like it did in the case of previous epidemics and pandemics to work as one UN in order to deal with it with a global structure with international cooperation. But because of the trends which were set in by the United States to undermine the international system by President Trump particularly, the pandemic expanded the collapse of the multilateral system. The United Nations Security Council could not even meet what to speak of taking collaborative action. So what we saw was a situation where the countries were taking care of themselves. There was no organized plan to combat the pandemic and everyone was left to himself or herself to deal with it. And very solid regional cooperation bodies like the EU etc. did not function. So we saw that the most powerful countries in the world, the most advanced countries in the world suffered more than the poorer countries which did not have access to the rest of the world. So this was the first casualty and the United Nations could not do anything. It was all left to the WHO which is only a specialized agency of the United Nations. Of course they did their best but they are a scientific organization and not a political organization. And so the response of the United Nations towards the pandemic and also the regional organizations was quite weak and ineffective. The first one to revive some of them like India tried to revive Sark, G20 was summoned, G7 was summoned and none of those organizations could do anything much except for some kind of pledges of helping each other. So not only the fight against the pandemic became fractured but also the whole approach to international community got fractured as groups started functioning or the country started functioning outside the groups. Of course new groups were formed in certain ways. The groups were meeting occasionally particularly since face to face meeting was not possible. The interaction was not very effective but we saw the beginnings of a new cooperation and collaboration after the first two years or so. That was a major change. Then the retreat of the United States from the center of the world. Though it was not a deliberate withdrawal but the compulsions of domestic policy, the change of government in the United States, etc. compel the United States not to be as active in international politics as it used to be. Because President Trump himself had withdrawn from the international arena. He was not very much with the European Union and therefore there was some kind of isolation by the US. But that increased because of their problems, the immense problems that the health problems that United States faced. And this gave the impression to China that this was their opportunity to accelerate their own pace of overtaking the United States. So everyone had predicted that in the next 14, 15, 20 years China would be ahead of the United States. But the pandemic gave them the impression that they could move even further and faster and take over the leadership of the United States. Therefore we found them active in Ladakh, in Hong Kong, in Taiwan, in South China, etc. So this was a big push that China made. And the other setback to the United States was the developments in Afghanistan. Because of the sudden withdrawal of the United States and their total inability to control the situation in Afghanistan. Into which China, Russia, Pakistan and Iran began stepping in. And the United States got isolated there. And countries like India also got into difficulties because of our relationship with the Taliban has been poor right from the beginning. And therefore another area of divergence came and new groupings started coming. And India was virtually isolated in the whole situation. And we were trying to build new bridges, meeting people, friends and foes alike in order to build a new arrangement to deal with Afghanistan. And that is still in a formative stage. We cannot say that we have succeeded. But at least the Taliban government has not been recognized by any state and only humanitarian assistance has been given. And maybe over a period of time Taliban would govern its lessons and try to get international recognition. Then the re-emergence of America to take back its position in the world began appearing. And Mr. Biden tried to build his bridges with European Union and Western Europe in general. And he became slightly softer towards China than President Trump. So President Biden started thinking in terms of two rivals, not just China but also Russia. Earlier the thinking was that what would emerge would be a Cold War between US and China and other countries will be in the periphery. But as a result of this shift, what has happened is the focus of the United States came on to Russia rather than to China. And there was the Geneva meeting of the two leaders. They tried to find an equation. But what happened was they moved further away from each other. And therefore Russia began wondering whether they would be secure if the United States actively promotes European Union and NATO expansion towards the East. So Russia on the other hand, not China, but Russia started flexing its muscles and it began amassing troops on the Ukraine border. Of course, since 2014 are having problems between Russia and Ukraine. Crimea was annexed by them. The world criticized but they still stayed. So encouraged by those developments, Russia being threatened by NATO and the United States began taking action which has caused a considerable concern in the world. So thousands of troops were amassed on the border of Russia and Ukraine and also troops were sent to Belorussia which is on the other side of Ukraine. And a situation was created that there was a threat of war. Even now that has not receded, many people still think that there will be a war in Ukraine and many nationalities have been withdrawn from Ukraine and embassies are starting moving out etc. So a war hysteria has been created. Russia continues to say that they have no intention to invade and their purpose is nearly to make sure that NATO does not expand into the former Soviet republics. So in other words, countries like Ukraine, Belorussia etc. should not be dragged into NATO, making it difficult for Russia to survive as a nation. But behind that is the dream of President Putin to restore the glamour and glory of Soviet Union as Russia itself because his own dreams about the resurrection of the Soviet Union may be not informed but at least in spirit. So the objective of Russia according to themselves is to get security guarantees from NATO, Europe and the United States that their flanks like Ukraine etc. will not be overtaken by NATO. So that seems like a legitimate aspiration on the part of Russia but it has met with great resistance by the United States and Europe. Of course there are some differences between Europe and United States. Trans, Germany etc. not as harsh towards Russia as United States is because they have a stake in it because Russian oil, gas etc. being used in Europe. And if there is a war the immediate reaction would be that cutting off of energy supplies to Europe which is not very welcome to European countries. And therefore they would like to avoid a war. The US also does not talk about a war, it talks about very severe economic sanctions if Russia moved towards Ukraine. So in my view there is no justification for a war, there is no logic for a war because it is not difficult for the western countries to concede that Ukraine will not be taken into NATO in the near future. And in return for it Russia could withdraw its troops and we could bring back peace and stability to Europe. So that possibility still exists but then logic does not always apply in such cases and a thoughtless action by someone like President Putin would probably cause a conflict. But there is no need for it because there is a solution in sight and depends on what kind of guarantees the US and Europe can give so that Russia does not have to take any precipitate action. So into this situation came up the Winter Olympics in Beijing. The Winter Olympics became a point of contention because the United States, UK, Australia, Japan, not the whole of European Union boycotted the Winter Olympics saying criticizing the Chinese action against the Uighurs in China, the Islamic minority in China. So using that as a human rights argument they decided to boycott the Winter Olympics. So that brought a divide between the two groups, those who go to the Winter Olympics and those who don't go. Where was India? We decided not to boycott the Olympics. In fact there is one Alpine skier who was participating in the Olympics from Kashmir. But unfortunately on the inaugural day since the Chinese used a Chinese soldier who fought battle with India in Galvan Valley was picked up as the torch bearer of the Olympic torch at the inaugural ceremony, which forced India to boycott the inaugural. So we are participating in the sports but we boycott the team. So in effect we also became a nation which boycotted. But on the other hand there were countries like Russia, Pakistan obviously, Iran and some of the Central Asian Republics all participated. So the Winter Olympics provided an opportunity for a regrouping of the nations. And the major outcome of it was the emergence of a new friendship between Russia and China. This is a very significant development because though they have been getting closer as a result of the strengthening of US and President Trump's activities etc. But they were not so close as before. They were not close before and now they have become much closer as a result of the summit meeting which was held in Beijing just before the Olympics. The joint statement between President Putin and President Xi is most significant in this respect because they are declaring eternal friendship to each other. And declaring themselves as strategic partners causing a big difference in the situation before the pandemic. So this has major implication. This was the first face-to-face meeting between Putin and Xi after the pandemic started almost two years. And when they came together at the Olympics, it was seen as some kind of axis of authoritarian states. Because on the one hand you had the democratic states which are boycotting the Olympics and the authoritarian states like Russia, China and also to a certain extent Pakistan and Iran etc. So a new partnership has developed and a new kind of division has happened. So it's not going to be a Cold War between US and China but a Cold War in a three-dimensional Cold War is emerging. Because China's economic support is very important for Russia and they concluded, even in the middle of all this happening, they concluded a 30-year energy deal according to which Russia would deliver natural gas to China for the next 30 years. And China has supported the Russian demand for security guarantees. In other words, strengthening the Russian position that they have somebody strongly supporting the Russian position that unless there is a guarantee about the NATO expansion, Russia cannot let the Ukraine situation develop. So in a sense, Russia is not isolated anymore on this question of Ukraine. And in return for that, Russia has expressed support for Taiwan. This is also new because Russia like all of us have one China policy and none of us recognizes Taiwan as an independent state though we all have relations with them. But exactly 50 years after the Nixon visit in 1972, in 2022 we saw the sign of China shaking hands with Russia rather than the United States. And getting support for the most crucial, the core issue for China which is Taiwan. And so Russia is now committed to Taiwan and so the new axis as I mentioned has developed at the Winter Olympics in Beijing and close at hand where there's two other countries, Pakistan and Iran. Pakistan of course is looking for finance support, political support, anti-India propaganda etc. And so Pakistan has always been an evergreen friend of China for no reason except that they're hatred for India which China shares. And so Pakistan is a ready-made partner in this. Though Pakistan is very much involved with the United States, they don't mind shifting loyalties around and their loyalty is more to China than the United States. And Iran not a full participant in this but they're hatred for the United States and the possibility of the Vienna talks failing because in Vienna the nuclear talks between the United States, other European partners and Iran have been taking place but the design signals from there is that it is not likely to succeed. So China is, Iran is facing a big threat from United States if these talks fail, the sanctions will be intensified and Iran will be pushed into developing its nuclear capabilities against the wish of the United States and Europe. So there is a confrontation emerging there and there also Iran would like to get China support and already they have agreed on to a long-term economic relationship. So what we are seeing is as against the Quad at the US, India, Australia, Japan. Now you have a new Quad, you can probably call it the Chinese Quad with China, Russia, Iran and Pakistan. And this is an absolutely new development and they are talking about a new chapter in Russia-China relations, coordination, nation affairs and therefore Russia is not isolated on Ukraine and China is not isolated on Taiwan, it suits both of them. So people say that this is the development of a personal relationship between President Putin and President Xi. Also they have been developing a kind of personal relationship but it is more than that because they have found common cause in being together in this difficult situation. And this has upsets the world, the balance in the world and the United States will now be forced to take more and more anti-Chinese, anti-Russian positions. So it may even provoke the Americans to impose sanctions against Russia even if there is no war in Ukraine. So the situation has become more explosive and one consequence of this will be that India will get closer to the United States because our relationship with Russia is very strong, we have a long old military relationship, we are buying sophisticated weapons even about 60% of our weapons come from Russia. We have a political relationship, President Putin was in Delhi when he even promised that he will try to resolve the problem between India and China and even talked about the possibility of a summit between Russia, India and China. But all these have now disappeared in a sense because by becoming an ally of China, now their flexibility to act in favour of India or in favour of peace between India and China is now become remote. So these are just conclusions that we are drawing from what we have happened. So we will get closer to the United States, we might strengthen our relationship in the Quad because in Quad there are other indications which I will come to a little later. But the immediate result will be our getting closer to the US and then US imposing conditions on our relationship with Russia. They have not discouraged India's military collaboration with Russia because they think that that will help India to counter China. So otherwise they would not have allowed us to buy S-400 missiles, they could have sanctioned us. But they didn't do that because any strengthening of the military strength of India would be useful for India to counter China. But now that there is a confrontation with China and Russia then the Americans may become more tough on India's military collaboration with Russia which will mean that Russia's relations with India will be affected. So that is the implications for us. So the hope that Russia would be helpful in resolving India-China problems and to be a kind of friend of India which has always been to reduce problems for India. Russia has now joined the opposite camp and when we are actually thinking in terms of getting closer to the United States or inevitable when it becomes inevitable for us to get closer to the United States, we are not very sure about the US position on China. Biden is still awaiting the solution of a problem in Europe before he even starts a strategy towards China. At the moment of course it is confrontationist but he is not conceding that China is an enemy number one for India. So he thinks that there is need for cooperation in China. So at that time when we are becoming a part of the anti-China, anti-Russia grouping then we will be compelled to accept our closeness to the Quad and we will have to accept the Quad becoming a more of a military group. And then most recent development is also we must take into account. There was a meeting of Quad foreign ministers in Melbourne. Many of you may have seen today's editorial which is very significant. So pointing out that Quad instead of becoming an organization against China, the Quad is now becoming a positive force. For something else. So it is not a negative posture that Quad took in Melbourne. They were talking of course about cross-border terrorism and open Indo-Pacific etc. But the sting against China was lacking. And also there was not entire unanimity about the situation in the world. Quad has differences of opinion. They have also been revealed. Like for instance in the case of Ukraine, India's position is certainly different from that of the United States. And that is known we even abstained from the Security Council resolution because we did not want to abandon Russia in this context. And we have not made any strong statements about Russia. We have concerns. We have Indian nationals in Ukraine. We have not withdrawn them because we still believe that things will be settled. And on an assurance obviously from the Russians, we have not moved to that extent of withdrawing our people, withdrawing the embassy. All this we have not done. So that means there is a certain understanding between India and Russia on what is going to happen in Ukraine. And therefore the Quad did not speak about the situation in Ukraine, possibly because of India's situation and India's vote in the Security Council. So a slight variation of approach within the Quad. So what the Quad has done is they are now talking about vaccines, strengthening vaccine cooperation, strengthening climate change cooperation. In other words, now that AUKUS is in place, Quad is losing some of its military sting or military arm. And going more for constructive, positive cooperation. That is why the Hindu called it for something and not against something. It was against China right from the beginning. But there is a slight ocean in that also as a result of all this. Even on Myanmar, for example, India has a different perspective than the US. India is against the impostional sanctions by countries. Even though we accept that the Burmese or the Myanmarese military is crossing all limits by oppressing the people and not even cooperating with Asia, which is trying to bring about some kind of compromise. So we are certainly not a pro of the military actions, but we are not joining the West in opposing Myanmar because we are afraid that if we do that, Myanmar will go even more into the arms of the Chinese. Of course, there is nothing more to do. They are already virtually like a part of China for our practical purposes. But we don't want Myanmar to be completely swallowed by China, which virtually it has been. But we want some amount of flexibility on this because we have this long border with Myanmar. There is a lot of complication on those borders and we need the support of the Myanmarese army in order to solve our own problems on the border. And therefore we want to maintain a certain relationship, though we want democracy to be restored. So our foreign minister said in Melbourne, we want democracy to be restored in Burma, but we are not going to gang up with the rest of the world to oppose the Myanmarese regime. So Indian position, as I said, was also softer and we did not vote for the resolution and we did not join in the evacuation exercise. So Quad is also becoming a softer alliance, but of course, US is aware of the existence of AUKUS, which is a military alliance and which is targeted against China. And the other element of cooperation between US, Odeon Russia and China is the world Indo-Pacific. Because it was the US that changed the name Asia Pacific to Indo-Pacific because they started moving more and more US troops into the Indian Ocean region. And they gave the name of their command in that area as Indo-Pacific Command. And that was considered to be a favour for India because the word India comes in, but I don't know whether it was intended. But we were very pleased and we accepted it and we keep talking about Indo-Pacific. But Russia has specifically objected to the name Indo-Pacific because the word Indo-Pacific seems to suggest that whatever is happening in Indo-Pacific is directed against China. So Russia's new relationship with China has made them nervous even about the name Indo-Pacific. And obviously, both of them see Quad as a threat to both Russia and China. So we are in a situation now, we have several challenges, India has several challenges in the new situation. And this is not going to change dramatically because we are all looking at Ukraine, we are looking at Taiwan, what are going to happen there. But clearly this new combination of Russia and China as a major force on the international scene is a new development. And this has implications for the United States, for Europe, for the rest of the world and particularly India. So this is what I wanted to bring your attention to and to start studying this phenomenon, not only for the sake of the examination, but also to understand the world, we need to see the regrouping that is taking place after the pandemic because the pandemic is not over yet. But these are the signs that we should look for and follow these developments to see what the post-pandemic world will look like. Thank you. I'm not an astrologer to predict the future, but USA may not concede everything that Russia is asking for. But it may not be difficult for the United States to concede one point that Ukraine need not join the NATO now and there is nothing dramatic they are going to achieve. So India gives some comforts to Russia and Russia does not build upon it to make even greater demands or to occupy parts of Ukraine. But my feeling is that there is scope for an understanding at this stage. This will be a big change because there has been a certain range of understanding because the most important event of that time was the Bangladesh war where we virtually fought the war with the assistance of the Soviet Union. So that in the neighborhood, it has been helpful to us and our security is at the moment very much dependent on Russia. So let us hope that this will not dramatically change that, but it will certainly affect our relations with Russia. Because Russia was some kind of a buffer between India and China. And now if they are going to join China and say that China is their first priority in Asia, that will have some serious implications for us. That we don't need China. We already have Afghanistan and Taliban to create more confusion in Kashmir. And if Pakistan is working with China, then naturally there will be more terrorism in India in Kashmir and it will have its own implications. Because I am confident that it will be alerted. I do not expect a war there. But what the conditions would be, whether the UK model etc. will be available, I don't know. But I don't think the West or the United States is still ready to have a formal 30 year arrangement, that much of a commitment they are not willing to make. And that is the reason why Russia has not withdrawn its forces. Because what they want is ironclad guarantees. And to give that guarantee at this time will look like a surrender on the part of NATO. That is if somebody is cyber rattling and then you obey their instructions and that will not be very good for them to have. And so that is the battle going on. The battle of which is going on is on that account. What will be the nature of the guarantee? Will that guarantee be satisfactory to Russia or not? And that will come up in the next few days and that will further consolidate whatever is the global situation is. As you know the global situation is in a flux. Everybody is making its moves on the chessboard, hoping that the situation will emerge which is satisfactory to them. But now this new situation has upset the chessboard a little bit. And so everybody has to move their ponds to see how this settles down. So the post pandemic world is not born yet. These are the pangs of birth of a post pandemic world. And we are simply looking at these signals and the indications to see what are the problems which are likely to arise in the future.