 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Week 18 slate of games is getting more intriguing by the day because we now know that I think the Bengals and the Ravens gonna go full-out with the possibility for that that second round matchup the first round matchup being at a neutral site I feel like the NFL is weak this thing in a pretty good way Which means we're gonna have a lot of motivation for a good number of teens week 18 We're gonna break down where you can find value in the prompt market based on that by talking to Tom Vecchio getting his read on week 18 and let you know where you can find value in the prompt market over at Fandall Sportsbook This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire com My name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as mentioned by Tom Vecchio check him out on Twitter at DFS underscore Tommy of course as a senior writer or a writer for us over at number fire calm does our daily iso NBA DFS podcast has a lot of stuff for NBA TV and HL work Tom is all across the board But he's here with us today break that week 18 Tom a happy final regular week of the regular week of the regular season Do you how you doing? I'm doing good. Yeah, I think this is arguably one of the most interesting weeks besides Opening week, which I'll touch on once we get in things but I think you know note like having all your like Your your T's cross your eyes dotted whatever might be and knowing the scenarios for different teams is vital this week Absolutely important. Yeah is vital to the point where you should not try to work out scenarios on a spreadsheet like I did yesterday morning and butchered it So trust the NFL let them tell you what's on the line, you know trust their PR staff Don't do it yourself But luckily it is all known now with the the scenarios being voted on for today We kind of know how things will break down I think that's a key thing to know and I think for me at least I'm handling the Bengals and Ravens as if they're gonna go All out. I think the bills will do the same because They don't want to be the three seed with that game against Bengals So I feel like both these teams will push hard for all four corners And that is important data to have entering week 18 will break down what that means how to apply this How to handle like your bankroll in week 18 as well in just one second First a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering this spread wherever you get your podcast our national championship preview TCU vs. Georgia is up with Dr. Red Fang find that on the Fandall YouTube page and my covering the spread podcast heat also Had Ryan Williams back on the show yesterday to break down week 18 in the NFL is thoughts on spreads money lines totals And he likes for this week both those up on the covering the spread podcast heat and the Fandall YouTube page So to get those as they are posted make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast And if you like what you hear leave us a 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slash RG in Arizona 1-800 next step or text next set to 5334 2 in Connecticut 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg dot org slash chat in Indiana 1-800 9 with it in Kansas and Wyoming 1-800 5 2 2 4700 in Kansas case gambling health comm Louisiana 1-877 770 stop in Maryland md gambling health org in New York 1-877 8 open wire text open Y and in West Virginia go to 1-800 gambler net now time I did want to start here by talking about your approach to week 18 because I Personally don't have as much on the line this week and I find with that I'm okay with that, but I wanted to ask you Do you pull back in how much you bet in week 18 given the uncertainty or does a prospect of the books being wrong and being there more They're being more variance that does that actually draw you in as someone who is very in tune with the news I it actually draws me in I think this week and opening week as I mentioned all for the biggest edges because you know if you're following training camp reports coming into the season and you see player props that You know a receiver's problems at 40 and now you're reading reports that he's expected play a much larger role And this game has high over under all these sorts of things like 40 is not the right line or whatever might be So I think there's an edge at the very beginning of the season when roles are somewhat undefined in the books The lines are wrong and I think this week specifically obviously there's a big edge and with so much news I want to be looking at the spots in terms of the players I'm going and then eliminating all the teams that are obviously out of the playoffs and have no right Motivation or locked into the playoffs and I can't move up or down like the box or essentially the Vikings And then I want to focus in and kind of double down on the teams and the players that have a lot of motivation apply So it actually draws me in more to have heavier exposure to the players that are in must win spots Yeah So you are narrowing your list down not dealing with the the nonsense But on the games where everything matters you feel better about your approach there and I think that actually does make sense because It's easier to predict how teams will play things if there's everything on the line That's why I love like playoff DFS because we're not going to see teams Messing around with like a third string running back getting you know third down snaps We're gonna see snap rates increase on running backs and stuff like that So I think that that thought process makes a lot sense because this is effectively now playoffs and I think that that is interesting So narrowing down the list But solving the regular amount of confidence with the games that are left remaining now you kind of alluded to this There are some teams out there like the Bucks the Giants may not play anyone at all like they might just not bother I think the Bucks will start Tom Brady that sounds like and we could have teams like the Chargers I could have nothing to play for maybe the Vikings I think they'll still push for the 2C But you know there's some risk there at least when you got those teams that might start their starters But then pull them later on are you looking to grab unders potentially in those games or they just full full avoids for you I mean, this is also something props get posted because they might just say Effort and not not post them at all right that that last point is the most important one will props be available at all You know there was a report on Tuesday or Wednesday where Todd bull is the head coach of the box said that You know, Brady could be starting might be starting and they would rotate You know Kyle Traskin rotate playing Gabbard in it's like they're gonna have three quarterbacks It's like I want every under under available for Tom Brady if they're posted, which they're obviously not posted yet That's a spot that I would absolutely love to look so if Her cousins is posted I might consider taking an under depending on what the line is obviously there's timing with that game You know if they're gonna be pushing for the 2C But I would take every under available I possibly could if the players are not expected to play assuming the lines are posted so It's a very touch-and-go situation And it's like ultimately wait and see because we just don't have these lines But I am going to be heavy on unders if they are posted. I think the one that would be interesting for the Vikings is Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson unders. I know Jefferson is chasing the yardage record I think with it being as high as it is. I don't think they're going to go for it I think they're going to care more about the postseason than that and The reading Kevin O'Connell's quotes earlier on this week. He said we're not going to be as like You know, we're not going to pull starters fully With the two seats on line because they want the two seats. I think her cousins will play the entire game but I think that we could see dalvin cook get a 60 50 snap rate versus his typical around 80 percent We could see justin jefferson get rotated out with more kj osmore I have feeling in the mix jaylon nailer might play more in this game So I think that's the way we'll see the the changes there, which means if people Steam up just jefferson chasing the the yardage record. That's where I think the unders are in place So jefferson dalv I think specifically are the guys where I could see unders being very lively again If they get posted at all, which they I wouldn't post it personally if our fad will But I mean you should john if you're listening but I don't think I wouldn't be shocked if they just don't post this at all But I think that jefferson and dalv specifically based on reading what o'Connell said I think those are the guys where unders very very lively Now those are not the fluid situations. We're talking about for today. We got a lot of the fluid situations You know some backfields and avian flux some passing games stuff like that when you're looking for Fluid situations where you may see some volatility in the market. Which situations are you targeting there? I think it comes with the I think chargers broncos is probably one of the best examples and that's simply due to the timing and and this is kind of just um A scheduling thing and like there's no I mean unless they played at the same time And this would be the referring to the bangles and the ravens unless they played both at four o'clock if the what is it this if I have this right if the Bangles beat the ravens Then the chargers clinched the five seed and there's no reason for them to play any of their starters Right and that's the reason why you saw the spread moves so heavily towards denver In crazy crazy swing Yeah, it was like it was chargers minus three for the entire time And then once it became clear that bangles ravens are going to be played at 1 p.m But also they weren't going to finish the uh charger the the bangles bill of games That's where you saw the movement heavily towards denver right so now denver's was in two and a half right still Yeah, yeah, so that's a substantial move So if the player prompts are posted That would be great, but We just don't know that yet and that is just a factor of the schedule So that's one thing I would love I would love to take essentially team total unders for the chargers Like if we see the bangles pull out ahead and it's like, okay, maybe you're gonna win this game If I can get team totals for the chargers under that's the spot that would go and I wouldn't expect herbert to play I wouldn't expect echler to play alan Mike williams all these players would not expect and and ultimately it's like it's not the best matchup for them to begin with No, so that is absolutely one The seahawks and and the lions are obviously also Uh another situation where if the seahawks win the lions are out, right? So and the lions are playing on sunday night football. So they will know Before the game even starts whether or not they are you have a shot at the postseason Which again is is just a kind of a it sucks because of the schedule But if the lions don't know if the lions know that they're out Where are they gonna be going with their starters? I think they're going full bore because it's dan cambell psycho so This is from someone who has lions plus four and a half. So take it with a grain of salt and and the lions Uh, you know the packers defense has looked pretty solid over the past number of weeks So, you know, I hate that we they're gonna know prior to the game whether they're in the playoffs or not But and I I do agree with the dan cambell thing that they're they should be going all out um So I have interest in a lot of seahawks players and a lot of seahawks props Um, and then I think saturday slate is also very interesting Yeah, what do you see on the saturday slate? What are you uh, is that a situation you're talking to? Because there are props up for those games Yeah, there are props of games. Uh, one of them i'm gonna i'm gonna write about in the props article I do specifically for saturday is it be christian kerke over 59 and a half receiving yards And I think that this is the best of both worlds where Not only are we talking about motivation for teams to play Clinching playoff spots clenching seating setup center We're also talking about motivation for players due to contract incentives Which is the other side of this where even if a team's eliminated a player's contract is very important So christian kerke over 59 and a half receiving yards makes a lot of sense for multiple reasons jags have to win this game Right, it's a playoff game for them They need to win the win this to win the division make the playoffs Number two the titans secondary is atrocious. We've seen it all year They're bad through allowing a ton of yards to to wide receivers and number three He has a contract incentive for an over on yards right now. His contract incentive is He's at right now. He's at 78 total receptions and 1009 receiving yards He gets an additional 500 000 for 80 receptions So only two more and then an additional 500 000 for 1100 yards. So he's 91 yards off Uh another contract incentive. I expect the two can actually get there But it's the best of both worlds where we have the contract incentive We have the motivation with team to play and I guess we also have an amazing match against the titan secondary So that's the spot that would look I would also go to geno smith over 238 passing yards. That's on sunday, obviously um going back to the I want to touch on two things quick the Titans thing Not only is their secondary bad, but they're getting a lot of their run stuffers back for this game Jeffrey Simmons Didn't play last week for obvious reasons You know with a lot of people they're resting everybody But he's going to play for this week Nico Autry also expect to be back this week And that means that their ground their rush defense, which is always good Is going to be even better this weekend than it has been which means we're going to see lauren's probably chucking it quite a bit I think he had like 368 yards in their first match up And that was a game where they were down the first half, but they won Decently comfortably. He's a very good quarterback. So I think that both kirk and ze jones are very viable I want to go back to the lions too because you mentioned them As being a team that but could potentially set starters now when I see four and a half as a spread That tells me that fendal is accounting for the odds that the seahawks win their game And there's no motivation for the lions I think they're kind of using the money line on the seahawks side as being like a guide for the odds that the Lions don't try What's interesting though is that the prop market is different because they have fendal has jamal williams rushing prop at 56 and a half Jamal williams when justin jackson has been active and when the under search has been had his snaps up He has been well below that number His role had evaporated before last week and granted he looked great last week and it is a jamal williams revenge game I will let you know But that's a big number for a guy whose role has been limited for a large chunk of the year And it's not like it's suddenly they're suddenly in a muslin game They've been playing muslin games since october with the way they started right So I think that even though I think the lions play hard no matter what that has been my firm stance all week That number specifically jamal williams under 56 and a half rushing yards that seems really really high Based on the way he's been used when they've had all their guys healthy Yeah, that makes a lot of sense it does The question is like do you factor in how much do you factor in the dan camble? And revenge game it's like all right It's the last last game of the year might as well throw these players out there because ultimately You know if we take a further step back Who's more important to the team swift or williams going forward? Well, williams is a free agent. I believe right so that answers your question right right So swift is obviously he's younger So they want to keep him long term So will will Williams be out there for more just because at a certain point they're you know, they may not have him next year So it doesn't matter right, so I will say he does have a contract incentive $250,000 when he hits 1,000 rushing yards. He currently has 994 rushing yards. We six away So I'm gonna take over over six and a half Or over five and a half if john sure and gives us that prop. I'll take it So You know, it's again, it's a tricky situation just due to the schedule timing. Yeah But I do see him in a large role if they are eliminated because Swift has already dealt with some injuries this year His his production has been up and down. They kind of seem to hate him too. Which I do it But like why would they need to push him if they know they want to keep him long term, right? Whereas with williams, like you said free agent, so that's a different situation there I think with yeah, I can see that being a concern for sure with him But honestly, I think it's fascinating to look at the juxtaposition of the way the props are handled versus the way the The spread is handled because I think I don't know I think four and a half says to me they expect the lines not to try which is Not the way I'm viewing things. I can be very wrong. I've been very wrong Plenty of times this would not be a first thing a first time by any means Okay, we talked about some yardage props there with christian kirk and gino smith What are that touchdown props? What you liking in that market? Uh, you know, I would go back to christian kirk at plus 210, which is I think a pretty solid number again all the things I touched about incentive Motivation for the team great match versus the titans They should be pushing the ball down field via the passing game instead of the running game plus the tenant is pretty solid um digs at plus 125 Uh, is the one I want one your opinion on it's obviously not the easiest matchup, but the bills clearly do have motivation to play Um, so plus money on stef digs is at least interesting when or plus 115 now I should say um You know anytime you get a dominant receiver at plus money in an offense is a spot that i'm always considering Yeah, I think that one is Is borderline to me. Yeah, I think it's borderline. Uh, first time he faced new england. He had nine targets in that game 92 yards um The bills will have high motivation to win this game given they want to have that ASC championship game on a neutral sites. I think they're playing regardless. That's a good thing as well. Um I think that's that's that's an interesting I tend to I get very wary of receiver props as they inch closer to even money That always makes me like very wary running back. I'm a lot more less I fair about But for receivers, I get more skittish, but if you look it's defund dig so far this year. He has scored a game a touchdown in Accounting all but seven games. So seven of 15 games he scored in more than half of his games eight out of 15 games he scored in this year. So I mean, that's definitely interesting there. I probably wouldn't take it myself, but I believe You could correct me if I'm wrong. I believe the last time I tried to talk you out of a prop It was a tirey killing any time touchdown Uh, and then he scored like two touchdowns that game So I didn't talk you out of my Kevin's last week. That didn't happen. I'll try that Um, but I think I tried to talk you out of tirey kill So if we use the gym is wrong narrative digs at like minus 300 is like fair value at this point so if you're Going back to your your point about Running backs in their lines or touchdown props. How do you feel about derrick henry at minus 115? Uh, I have the jags minus six. So those two are uncorrelated And I can't be objective about it where I can't uncross my brain out of like I think the jags I have the jag fair by eight in this game. Um, which means a They could just throttle the jags or the titans and tides may not score a whole lot. Um, and b If it's a negative game script, I think henry should still be in there if I were coaching I'd keep him out there as a pass catcher still, but will he be I think those are two separate things So if I were looking at that game You know etn's situation is pretty tough. Um, given how good the titans rush defense is but He's he got three targets before he got pulled last week. I think that's kind of intriguing Um, I think I'd prefer actually etn over henry his red zone rolls very good And that might seem egregious because etn's minus 110 henry is minus 115 so it might be Unearthly dumb to go with etn over henry, but I feel like I prefer that one personally Okay, and then the the last spot that I want to note would be the stealers They obviously have high motivation 100% they need to win. Um Kenny Pickett's passing prop last time I saw is only 195 and a half he's been inefficient In some games, I think is the nicest way to put it, but he is throwing the ball A lot like we're talking about high volume of passing attempts overall Right where some of these games high 30s low 40s of passing attempts so the inefficiency is obviously noted and You know, we see him crossing this line at a very modest rate. It's not like he's blowing past this But motivation to win um High volume of passing. It's a modest number overall I'm at least intrigued on the stealers this week is the point I'm making I like that old team this week. Um What could go wrong, right? What could go wrong with me needing to start uh, jail and warring in a in a must win consolation bracket A lot could go wrong. They're not gonna lie. Yeah, a lot could go wrong there But with the picket one, I'm fine with that. I think that's totally fine because You mentioned that he's been inconsistent. I think that's totally fair But he's been like on the whole since their bi-week His efficiency number has been good and that's without chase clay. But which It's addition buys attraction who can say, um, but like his efficiency in that time has been good Especially in the games that fat fat framerate has been there He had a game that was like a partial game because he got you know, he got a concussion there Miss the next game, but like his broad efficiency numbers. He's been like just a hair below average, which that's not bad for a passing prop under 200 and now davin clowny got sent home It's wrong from practice this morning for the browns. He's not going to play on sunday That then I think that benefits both nagi harris and kenny picket. So harris actually I think is also a spot I'd want to turn to once yardage props are up. They're not up at fan dual right now, but I think Looking at harris rushing plus receiving numbers harris anytime touchdown numbers Picket, I think he's in play pat frimer depending on the number more so for him But I think all those guys are very very lively this week um, and then the final one for saturday is um Or two for saturday both chief's players Okay, juju is very close to some extra incentives as well. He has 76 receptions and 898 receiving yards on he has some incentives to get to uh, Was it a 900 or yeah over 900 yards? So he needs two yards to get an additional 1.5 million dollars. Wow So that's that's kind of important. Uh, and then mohomes is approaching the single season passing record He's 430 yards away, which is which is a lot right 430 yards is a lot in any game When they could blow out the raiders He literally might not need to pass that but the ball that many times to get to 430, but it is still noted um It's noted and it's also posted. Um patrick mohomes believe 20 and a half No for 400 plus passing yards is plus 490 if you want to get nuts though. Well, i'm saying isn't this passing Yeah, it's 320 325 yeah in the alt market if you want to get real crazy I think plus 490 is terrible value But like, you know, you could you could talk yourself into that for sure if you want to play the full narrative game I think that that's uh, that's intriguing for sure The juju receiving prop is 54 and a half right. I don't think that's bad at all that's one I have uh Kirk and juju the two i'm gonna write up in the article for tomorrow I have no objections to either personally. I again, I think zay jones is also I probably prefer kirk by a bit But there are usages so similar that I could do either and be happy in zay jones touchdown prop is plus 250 I think I agree with you where I prefer the kirk one, but zay jones is also very in play a plus 250 in that same game So I think honestly jags and cheese props will very fun. So the the question is The chiefs obviously need to win To secure the to secure the number one seed, but how like how much are they gonna push my homes and then is that enough to It depends on what you think of jared situm Do you think situm is good enough to duplicate what he did last week? Then he keeps that game close and forces them to push, but I tend to I think that was a rally around the flag kind of game where they bench the quarterback. Let's show that you know we're still fighting Those effects tend to be about a one game thing and then they dry up real fast Or like when a coach gets fired and same thing. Yeah, yeah, like jeff saturday wins his first game and they've been abysmal since Absolutely, um That was also the raiders that they'd be in that game. So maybe some uh some correlation in there I think that the so I I've got the she's pretty heavily favored in this game. Um, I haven't bet nine and a half because I've got a little bit. I was like But like I think nine and a half is like very very much a consideration And with that being the case it might scare you away from my home specifically I don't think the juju one is concerning because it's it's low enough where it's actually fine But I think for my home specifically that's enough where I wouldn't be chasing the the 400 plus at plus 490 Uh, yeah, I would agree with that and you know, I would say just as an overall theme Like, you know, we're mentioning these different teams, you know, do your research to make sure You're like dallas philly 49ers jacks titans chiefs bills bangles ravens like all these teams Pat Stalfords all these teams need to win Steelers uh, uh steelers seahawks as well like they need to win. Yeah, so if push comes to shove and you're saying, okay I have these two players that I really like this player could be in for an expanded role because The team is sitting all their starters. It's like do you have to be going with that team? That's a limited right it's like focusing on the teams and the players that truly need to be winning You never have to make a bet. You can always just say now, I'll wait till the wild card round Go to great proposings then like theoretically as you mentioned like KJ Osborne could be in for a nice role Right. Do I do we need to be going there when you can go to z Jones when you could go to Some of the secondary players on teams that do need to win. Yeah, there are a lot of teams with motivation this week So even if we take the the the vecchio approach where we narrow down our list and cut off teams that have no motivation You saw that a lot of teams to look at so personally I'm on board of you where I'm not Like I just doing fewer props this week, which is fine. I have a laurence over but like, you know, not a whole lot for me in general so I think that I'd rather make I'd rather not make a bet than make a bet that I regret so I think that's always come to my baseline but Very comfortable with missing out on stuff for sure Any final thoughts for you on week 18 tom? Uh, no, I you know just double check Double check actives and inactives on sunday morning double check actives and actives for the 4 p.m. Slate, which is obviously also important for teams Um, you know do your research keep everything in line and you should be good to go Oh, that was one point. I wanted to make actually about the chargers. Um They're inactive have to come out. I believe before the end of the Ravens game 90 minutes beforehand, which means eclair might be active and then not play So and if he's active the props count so And syncing with uh with brady like if they announce that he's starting or he's active and the props come out it's all unders, right so Based on fandals house rules those that stand, um, so that's where I'd look if he wants to be active That's where you want to if again at props or post it was that might not be Um, but that's where I'd be looking for sure. Alrighty. That is tom vekio. Tom Appreciate the time and thank you as always and we're talking to you about some nba Starting next week on wednesday. I am looking forward to that. Uh, good luck for you in week 18. We'll talk to you then Thanks so much for having me Check out tom on twitter at dfs underscore tom I'm on twitter at gymson again check out our national championship preview and our week 18 Moneyline spreads and totals previews both up on the covering the spread podcast feed and on the fan dual youtube page We'll talk to you all once again next week. Good luck in week 18 This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network