 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Super Bowl week is Finally here. We are now less than one week away from Super Bowl 58 between the Chiefs and the 49ers Which means we have a full week of podcasts coming up breaking down this game from all angles We're gonna kick things off today by talking to Dr. Ed Feng Talking to him about what his number say about this matchup where he sees value at Fandall sportsbook to get you ready For should be a delightful week. This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research Joined here as mentioned by Dr. Ed Feng find his work at the power rank comm and check him out on Twitter at the power rank Ed it is finally here Super Bowl 58 is just around the corner. How you doing today? I'm doing great I'm having a little a problem finding props through all these menus and how the different sports books have them all Organized, but you know first world problems. I'm having a great week I'm talking to Joe Straski later this week And I had to like find a way to get Markets that are specifically in Canada in order to talk with him because like we're talking about some weird halftime Props because I don't know about those and I trust Joe's research more than mine But like they're only available at Fandall in Canada. So like I Understand, right? It's a very relatable problem to have and then you're talking about like that That's for me focusing on just Fandall But like if you're if you've got accounts at like 10 different books, good luck, man Like I you got a price shop got to find the best number But it can be tough when there are so many different ways to bet stuff They're bigger discrepancy this week than usual. So like it's it's a lot to sort through for sure it is but But it also means that there's a ton of markets and you can find some markets that usually aren't up for the regular NFL game and so it's it's it's I've been having a lot of fun digging into code and Simulating stuff and digging into the play by play and I'm not really sure why I didn't do this more in previous years But yeah, we're here now and so we're gonna go with it And we're gonna try to benefit from that research as well by talking to you about what your numbers say about this matchup We're seeing value Fandall sportsbook and much more But as I mentioned we have a full week of shows coming up here on the covering the spread podcast Tuesday Joe Straski of 670 the score and Beck you L daily will join us breaking out his thoughts on the national anthem length Gatorade color all the weird stuff that I can't give you recommendations on we're gonna talk to Joe to pick his brain on those He's been grinding Riva McIntyre tape I'm sure to get you thoughts on the anthem that'll be Tuesday I'll talk about same game Harleys that I like on Wednesday our player prop preview with Tom Vecchio and Ryan Williams We'll be up on Thursday. We're gonna talk to Ed Miller the author of Interception and of course logic sports betting on Friday Talking about live betting. Obviously, we can't do like recommendations for live betting, but Ed has killed models how to do this stuff So we're gonna talk your recommendations. I can't say hey bet the chiefs in the middle of the first quarter I can't do that We can at least like pick his brain on live betting process some of the difficulties in building out live betting models To try to give you a better way to bet this game live and no better person to talk to you about that than Ed Miller So a fun week here on the show Monday through Friday make sure to subscribe to covering this the spread to get those shows as they go live each never week Then of course all these shows are also available on the Fandall YouTube page and over on Fandall TV plus as well Happy Super Bowl to all who celebrate from Fandall America's number one sports book If you're like me Super Bowl Sunday is all about scoring the bestie in the couch grabbing your favorites football snacks and placing some bets Fandall has so many ways to end the season with a W or two or three Not only can you bet on who will win Super 58? 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Hope is here as a gambling help lot ma.org or clayhunter 327 50 50 We're 24 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877 open Y or text open Y in New York Let's dig in now to this game over at Fandall sports But right now at the 49ers our 2 and a half point favorites total in this game is 47 and a half And let's start things off here by talking about the chief's offense in this game because they've seen to reach a new level During the playoffs and you could say it's playoff pat You know got a ride with it or you could say it could be even fluky. So Does that seem sustainable to you or is the chief's improvement on offense the product of a small sample size? I I Think it's sustainable there You know, we we not only have kind of what we've seen in the past two games, right? And we can just kind of look at the numbers, you know at Buffalo 60.9% passing success rate compared to a NFL average of 42.3. That's pretty good 9.35 yards for past attempt compared about 6.08 For NFL average Those are pretty good There's a little bit of an asterix there because Buffalo's secondary was depleted missing two players probably had a couple guys banged up as well Against Baltimore, you know, almost 44% passing success rate. So still above M and fell average 5.61 yards for past attempt a Little bit below average but considering that that Baltimore unit is One of the two best in the NFL I think that's overall a pretty good performance and I I mean, I really do think this is sustainable This is Patrick Holmes. This is Andy Reed and we have a you know Very long track record of what they've been able to do now Look, I get it Travis Kelsey's a year older and it kind of snuck up on me that the guy's 34 already and But you know like so, you know, is he losing a stop probably a little bit But like, you know, you think about this offense, right? And Rashi rice is gonna be a really good wider see were in the NFL He's probably not the same player that he was at the beginning this season when he was getting used to the league as a rookie You know, and they you know, they had Marquez Velasic scanning MBS last year, you know, like I mean you can kind of question the weapons, but I Really do think that that Kansas City is their their performance is sustainable. I expect them to do pretty well You know, and that's not because that San Francisco's defense is at a rough playoffs I I think they're a pretty good unit, but I don't think they're elite, right? I don't think they're top five defense so I think Kansas City is gonna be able to move the ball I think they will be able to move the ball when it matters and you know, I think a big part of what's going on in my prediction is That like I do have a little bit of a preseason prior on it That does move things towards the Chiefs and honestly what I think is gonna happen in this game is that you know The offense is pretty sustainable And I think Kansas City is gonna do better than they have over the course of the season and while Kansas City's defense has been incredible I think you're gonna see a little bit of regression there You're gonna see it kind of go back to what we thought in August because this is the NFL We do have multiple years of data and That's that's what I think is gonna happen and I think that with the Chiefs in the playoffs specifically It's not a small sample because it's not just this year where they've been efficient. It's time of year We have a full season of data on my homes in the playoffs Which is insane to think about already given how young he still is Yeah, like it's a full season of data and they've been very good and I think it makes sense anecdotally too when you think about this team specifically given Rashid Rice Rookie who didn't have a full role At the beginning of the year they had some new pieces that both tackle positions to enter this year as well Kelsey was banged up entering week one where you had that knee injury So like a lot of factors could indicate why this team in Weeks one through nine may not be the same team we'd see during the postseason. So I think that Anecdotally you could understand why they might uptick as well Let's talk about the flip side here because the Niners offense had a really good half against the Lions but in the first half Kind of okay, obviously not perfect against the Packers either Do those postseason bumps worry you for the Niners entering this game? I mean not really You know, I mean I think the thing that might worry you is that San Francisco's offense has been so good over the course of the year that Estiquia's offense is that you know, you expect a little regression when a team has done that well One thing that's really playing into San Francisco's favor is the matchups They're capable of running the ball. Kansas City is not the best at stopping the run In fact, they're absolutely NFL worst when I look at success rate on rushing plays adjusted for opponent This was also true last week against the Ravens and the Ravens didn't really run the ball with the running backs I don't think that's gonna be the case with San Francisco. They do tend to run the ball and Running out with McAfrey Christian McAfrey does give you an explosive element The opportunity to break big plays so Yeah, I mean, I think they're gonna do just fine and I Think they would be smart to try to run the ball with McAfrey as opposed to throwing into one of the best past defenses Two really good outside corners that have tended to shut down top receivers this year So the game plan will be interesting there And I think that you talked about how they've been able to shut down top receivers That is definitely a positive for the Chiefs. I think the 49ers are uniquely equipped to Combat that given they've got guys who can beat you at every different level like okay If you shut down Brandon I you they've got Debo Samuel in the running game They've got Christian McAfrey in the running in George Kittle who can beat you over the middle. It's a very It's a lot tougher of a defense to break down to shut down Then you might have for a lot of other teams So I agree they should be able to run the ball pretty effectively here and I do think there are some Matchup concerns as part of why I like the over which we'll talk about later on But let's talk first about the spread in this game It was two and a half at open when it opened during the NFC Championship game Quickly got bet down to minus one and minus one and a half depending on where you look now It's gone back to the Niners at minus two and a half. What's your read on the spread in this game? right, I mean I have a way closer to a pick for the reasons I mentioned before there is a little bit of Prior in my model and and I think it just makes sense Like we know what we get from any read in Patrick my homes and sure it hasn't been what we expected of the offense this year But but I really do think this is this is an elite unit. That's what you can expect So I do think there's value most of the markets at two last time I checked Fandals kindly offering plus two and a half minus 15. I think they're I would certainly lean that way I mean I have a bet on Kansas City plus two and a half I think I have minus one time I think I bet it as soon as the conference championship games were over and then looks looked looks so smart One and now everything's crashing and burning and and making me look down again, but that's the way it goes. It's a Super Bowl and there is a lot of interesting money as always the Super Bowl, you know, it is going to be a Sport where our game where there's a lot of eyes and there's a lot more money in the market Which typically makes markets more efficient We talked to you because John Shear in a couple years ago a fangirl sportsbook and he was saying no during the postseason you see a lot more inefficient lines because there's a lot more public money and a lot more casual money on these games, so I Guess if I were you I wouldn't be that concerned the market moved against me just kind of knowing How much you know, maybe not as short money could be on this game as you typically would get Right supposedly this public money is all on Kansas City because you know, they're the ones that have been there and have more Super Bowl Championships over the last couple years. I mean, I don't necessarily buy that you know, I think there's a lot of sharps on both sides of of this line and Chris Andrews at the South Point was was kind enough to share with me that you know He's at minus two and getting equal action on both sides right there So, you know, they're certainly I think he respects the action on both sides of that So I think there are some pros on the on the the KC plus two there All right So Ed likes the chiefs plus two and a half, which is minus 115 right now at fangirl sportsbook I alluded to the total earlier on my model likes the over here Even though the total is not low for this game We talked about the matchups It's an indoor game which is huge my model as well any read on the total for you at 47 and a half right now I'm not really I mean, I can kind of see this going so many ways, right? I mean if if San Francisco is able to break the explosive plays that obviously is gonna have An effect on things if not then, you know You're lowering the number of possessions and with longer possessions and that obviously goes towards the under But then again, we've talked up these offenses and they can score So I guess the question is how many opportunities do they get to score? I'm not an expert at that. So I don't really have an opinion on total Okay, so let's stay away there for Ed. I do like the over still. It's minus 115 right now So it has moved towards the over at my was minus 105 for a bit Then was minus 110 again minus 115 right now. I think there's value there personally I've got it at right around 50 for my model, but I still think there's value minus 115 Let's talk some props and we talked a lot about Interception props with you throughout this year. It's a market You've had a lot of success with throughout the entire season as of right now in Fandall Sportsbook Both I believe yeah, both guys Brock Purdy and Patrick Mahomes are minus 115 to throw a pick minus 105 to not throw a pick When you look at these two markets, Ed any value to you on either of these guys Yeah, so at at that number Mahomes to not throw pick minus 105. I think has a little bit of value I'd actually put it about 53 and a half percent. So, you know, not not exactly something I'm gonna go Writing home about but I do think there's a little bit of value in there I think there was a point last week where I saw a plus 100 somewhere and kind of wished I would have either bet it Or send it to my members But neither those things happen and you know the market kind of corrected itself I mean, I roughly think that these are efficient and You know, I mean I have Purdy. He is going to throw Fewer passes projected And so he is he's a little bit better than NFL average and not putting the ball in dangerous positions Which is what I use to make my predictions Patrick Holmes is absolutely the best over the last three years in the NFL So despite the fact that he's projected for about 36 pass attempts, you know, he's so good in general and not throwing picks That I would lean towards the no So yeah, a little bit of value at Mahomes. No there and I think the encouraging thing for you is that the Mahomes not throw a pick does play well with your Chiefs plus two and a half because in general players more like throw pick when they're in a negative game script And if you think the chiefs keep this game closer than the spread implies that does play well there minus 105 The implied odds are 51 point two percent. You said 53 and a half percent for you So about two percentage points of value there. That's not bad. So I think it minus 105 personally I'd be okay betting that right Yeah, I do too just because I like Mahomes unders like I like varied golf unders and For most of the season it has been over over over a half interception And then we get to the playoffs and it's and it's really not like the market has tend to lean towards the over But you have the best quarterbacks in the NFL the patching the home to Jared golf and and pretty's not terrible He's not me. He's a little bit better than NFL average, which is which is very which is very hard to do so Yeah, I Forget what I was saying, but like I like yeah, I like to bet Mahomes unders So I would tend to lean that way. I also will be honest I'm a bit surprised pretty is below average in terms of putting the ball in harm's way because like That's always the point against Brock Purdy on Twitter is like Oh, you know, he gets away with so many drop picks and stuff like that It kind of just seems like his his bad balls Maybe they may get more publicity than other bad balls Is that the right way to frame that because I if you had like asked me I would have thought that he puts the ball in harm's way a bit more than league average So I guess I was a bit surprised to hear he's below average in in the positive sense in that regard Yeah, he's slightly better than average So let me take a look at NFL average is 11.7 since the start of the 2021 season and he is a 11% So that's good. I mean that that that means a lot and I don't know. I mean, I feel like Purdy was really really good at not throwing picks for a while this season like there are some insane prices on him over a Half an interception and then that Baltimore game happened Yeah, and it seems like every time the you know, the Ravens got a hand on the ball like they picked it off. I Think it all bounces out. I Mean, I do think like, you know That's the benefit of me going through the play-by-play and tracking all the times that Quarterbacks put the ball in dangerous position we can get past those narratives and we can look at the data and You know when we do talk about the rate it would Quarterbacks put the ball in dangerous positions that that is as predictive as any quarterback statistic that I found, right? And you blend that with other factors and you can get out a good number and have a lot of success So I agree the Hema Holmes to not throw pick minus 105 pretty fun way to attack this game Any other prop bets you like across Super Bowl 58 Ed For sure I mean as sad as I was not to get in on these quarterbacks individually to throw a pick collectively is you can actually find bets on like the total number of interceptions in a game and You know, like I mentioned Patrick Holmes is just so good when you set this line at one and a half I'm getting about 63% for the game to go under I'm on Caesar's you can actually get minus 135 still pretty good chunk of value there There were places where that was actually plus money late last week, so Yeah, overall, I think that's I think this is a perfect example of why Super Bowl prop betting is fun, right? Like a main market which I'll put in quotes but the main market of each individual quarterback and their interceptions is sharp but Books are throwing up other things other types of markets and they're not quite getting it right. So Yeah, anyway, 63% to go under one and a half interceptions I when I when I actually cranked out that number actually wrote a little bit of code to do that and When that number popped out, I was like, are you sure? Is that right? I Had to check it but it's right It should strongly be towards the under one and a half and and you know, like I think there's the most likely cases party throws a pic in my home doesn't and Yeah, so there's value there if you can find it It was at Caesar's before I checked. Yeah, 63% would translate to minus 170 as being the fair price Under one and a half total picks are on the game. Like you said, you saw a minus 135 I saw a minus 140 145 even that's value though Relative to minus 170. So as long as it's Not much out of not out to minus 170 yet I think there would still be value there under one and a half interceptions that I'd alluded to and you were talking about How unique how many unique markets we get for the Super Bowl? I'm like, that's one thing Ed Miller talked about in his most recent book interception was You want to bet fresh markets where the books don't have a lot of data on what's good and what's not good and You're gonna get a lot of those for this week now Do the books care? No, that's one a lot of offerings Like it's they want stuff up and they're gonna get a lot of stuff up Does that mean it's gonna be the most efficient market? No, and that's to our benefit. So trying to find unique markets like this and Hunting for them markets that aren't always offered that's you can find a lot of inefficiencies and like I mean Just going back to the example of Fandall like they've got some really weird ones up this week that are like next-gen stats related There are like fastest ball carrier speed Trying to find it's back over here But they got fastest ball carrier speed most air yards on a completed pass like there's some weird stuff up there So search around and try to take advantage. It's there's some pretty fun ones up there The next gen stats is it's pretty interesting, right? Because you have to get this approved, right? Someone somewhere has to approve this stuff. They have a deal with next-gen stats I know because I have like a login that I can use to like check next-gen stats stuff So I think that's some sort of relationship between the two but don't But Fandall has to get it okayed by the state though, right? Yeah, so like this is not available in every state like There are a lot of bets that are like like you can only bet the national anthem length And I think like Illinois and Maryland like there are a lot of ones that are that are specific to certain states Yeah Yeah, so anyways, yeah, I mean, I think the next-gen set ones are pretty interesting I mean particularly because like we don't have access to all that, right? So it's not like we can just download that somewhere and like say hey What's Rashi rice is as fast as speed over the course of the year, right? Right? I think Pacheco's a bit undervalued. I would say a plus seven thirty That's that's my read on the market after having looked at the data I think that Pacheco might be decent value there at plus seven thirty. All right Uh, no, what is his I want to see his odds are I'm curious. Um, he does his little shuffle. He's 18 to 1 that should be way longer Um, it should be way longer that guy ran a 4 8 Which makes his pocket presence and his ability to avoid sacks all the more remarkable Kelsey is 55 to 1 that seems to that's just rude. You're kicking an old man while he's down. Come on guys I think he's got plenty of things to he's got plenty of things to be off about. He'll be okay Yeah, I I think he'll be okay Regardless, but 55 to 1 just seems a bit rude All right, that is all that we have here for today But Ed it was a delight talking to you mentioning a chris andrews on the show this past week Where can people find that discussion with him if they're looking for that? Oh, I didn't have him on the pod. Uh, I had uh, he uh He just contributed and I'll get to the newsletter. Uh, check out the newsletter You can get that at the powerink.com It had some Super Bowl stuff in the past one and then uh, yeah We we made I don't know if I have five different props that I like We may just we just may max it out on five. No, you saturday on saturday. Um, I can probably promise at least three But we'll see how the week goes as these prop markets evolve and um You know, we'll see some of these, uh, we'll see we'll see how long some of these last, right? So, um Um Yeah, I actually had an 1110 on my show Last week talking about Super Bowl props and some of the modeling they do over at established run I thought that was a particularly interesting conversation about how he and Evan Silva work with a quant team of four people Uh, to kind of iterate back and forth on their prop models So check that out at the football analytics show and and yes I know for that newsletter at the powerink.com a very smart team of four people working over there and establish They're on the quant side of things and a well respected organization So check out that chat with adam levitane at the football analytics show find ads newsletter by subscribing at the powerink.com Find add on twitter at the powerink and I gotta thank you again for joining us throughout this year But we'll be back with us for some march madness once we get into that but until then enjoy the football. We'll talk to you again soon Thanks so much All righty find add on twitter at the powerink. I am on twitter at jim sonnis You can find me on threads at jim dot sonnis and find fendal research on twitter at fendal research tomorrow Joe Ostrowski joins us to discuss all the markets. I know nothing about and give his insights on those Full week of shows coming up here. It's going to be a blast. We'll talk to you all again soon This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network