 Hi, my name is Liam Rowe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180.com and welcome to this week's supply and demand Forex and gold fundamental and technical analysis for those of you who are new to the channel a warm welcome to you and if you are returning an equally warm welcome to you and Don't forget to please like subscribe and share The content with your fellow traders if you enjoy the content that I provide every week and just a quick I guess Overview of what we do at trading 180 and what I do is really follow a fundamental Analysis process to establish directional bias and then apply technical analysis supply and demand strategies To really kind of time trade entries manage risk and establish profit targets. So Let's get into the the week Ahead and quite an important week matter of fact We've got a jobs report which would take the spotlight Followed by the worldwide manufacturing and services PMI surveys in Eurozone GDP. So that's that's going to be the fourth quarter GDP Figures, which is the first of the fourth quarter GDP figures And that's usually the most important and inflation numbers, right? So the reason why GDP inflation is important because it really kind of Signals as to what or it can signal tool as to what the central bank may do with interest rates Or quantitative easing or tightening so also central banks in the UK Australia Euro area and Brazil will be deciding on monetary policy. Why why open meeting? Is expected to offer guidance into the production plans from March. So we're going to talk about You know this the UK and I guess the Euro area of monetary policy a little bit later on And touch on that and the earning season will also be in the spotlight with GM Yes, that's nothing nothing to do with us and Forex, but yeah So we're going to be potentially a market moving week this week And potentially depending on what the central banks say, especially Australia as well You know, it could be the beginning of a certain trend either to the upside or to the downside depending on obviously the pairs So let's get into the the technicals and starting off on the US dollar index And the US dollar index from last week Pretty much I was saying this and I said, you know, you really want to be a buyer right I think last week what five days ago Friday Thursday Wednesday Tuesday and Mondays so you guys would have watched the analysis from here and I was saying pretty much I want to try and be a buyer if prices pull back but in the group on Wednesday, in fact I was saying that you know price of the dollar should really go higher So I didn't know I can predict what price is going to do in the short term But it was just obvious that the dollar had to go higher at some point as we approach the decision really to to high crates and fundamentally again You know, it says this is just a bit of a newsletter from Bloomberg. It says the Fed's new steady and nimble playbook and Again, what's priced in now? So it's basically You know for over four hikes priced in for the year with 30 basis points priced in for Intermarch is FOMC. So we've got the Fed plot which is you know, they're forecast and pretty much You know pre FOMC and where we were where we are in In in January, I guess And what's basically been priced in by the market? So And you know the basis points is here as far as you know interest rate percentages. So You know, it's pretty much hiking cycles Right is what you need to really kind of understand from here The Fed are looking to high crates, which is generally positive For a currency doesn't mean it's going to be you know every single week You know the price of the dollar is going to go higher and higher and higher. No It just means that you know, they're looking to appreciate their currency to try to Stop inflation from getting out of control, right? So what was actually a bit interesting was here as well So what the whole article was interesting But for the moment traders are starting to speculate the Fed could hike five times this year Which is which is even more hawkish in keeping With the call of Bloomberg economics Goldman Sachs is now sticking with its forecast of a drip feed of four increases So whether it's four whether it's five The you know, it's again the rate hikes are coming as we know it yesterday And the more I think there will be a 50 basis points Salvo in March Steve Matthews writes here about what it could prompt such as shock and awe because Inflation is really out of the out of control and it is getting out of control. It's just you know trending away from their 2% target. So Regardless, whoever you think is gonna be four or five, you know any pullbacks as I've been saying for a very long time You can check out, you know past Weekly videos I've been saying by the dollar by the dollar not necessarily financial advice But I tell you what I'm doing and you can pretty much see what's been happening, you know, you get a pullback cool That's fine, right pullbacks have to happen, but generally, you know the path leads resistance if you look at that what the dollar has been doing You know, it's literally been a path. These businesses been to the upside. So You know dollar index again more pullbacks, right? So where do we go from here? So again, this is not financial advice. Nothing of the sort, but I Will be looking for either a pullback into that demand zone where we'll get it or not is is something different Or if prices do something like this where you get a pullback and then a new a new height and then a pullback into that Demand zone, right? That's really what what I'm looking for as confluence because we're not necessarily trading the US dollar We're just looking at the US dollars overall strength because it's a measure of strength Again from the dollar against for example the pound the euro the yen Right and some other currencies And we're looking at this as confluence to buy, you know, the dollar against the yen the Swiss franc for example So if prices do kind of pull back create some sort of demand zone Then that's extra confidence to buy the dollar But just fundamentally, you know, you do want to be a buyer of the dollar if you're looking at, you know Sell trades that that large supply zone and I always tell traders Really, you know, there's no point in you know trying to sell a currency against, you know, technically when you when you know when fundamentals are and risk sentiment are in play because There's no technical analysis level that's going to stand in a way of fundamentals or risk sentiment So there's no point in trying to make a decision on trading the dollar based off a technical analysis If you don't know, you know, what what is going on fundamentally Then it's just you're really kind of flying blind in that sense But yeah, so I guess we've got some suppliers on from way in 2020 but again the question is why it whatever drove the dollar down In 2020 I made it, you know, depreciate Right here. Is that the same thing that's going to make it depreciate in, you know, two years later in 2022? I highly doubt it. Yes, there's probably some, you know, maybe some profit-taking going on, etc And if you do want to be a, you know, try to short the dollar and profit-taking then, you know Be my guest. This is a this is a level that you might want to look to potentially short Right to make money from. But for me, it's just literally, you know, buy trades and looking for dollar buys Not necessarily the dollar index, but more to do with dollar other currencies like the dollar yen and dollar dollar Swiss for example and Look at that. So I was highlighting, you know, the three levels that prices may want to, you know Bounce from and pretty much, you know, we got it, right? So last week's analysis is still on here and these were the three levels what we were looking at and Yeah, we pretty much saw where prices again. This is Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday, Mondays So Sunday that was Sunday's open And that's when you would have got the analysis of saying that this level was really nice again, you can go back and look at the analysis and Again, my bias was to buy the dollar, right? So there we are Now there is obviously a bit more of a demand zone there So, yeah, I mean, it's just really just pullbacks, right? The power for these resistance is to the upside Dollar hiking the yen really isn't in fact, they're way behind the curve So from that perspective, it's just looking for dollar buyers I don't know where again, I don't know whether prices will pull back to that one 14 area But if it does, I think that's the first area that you want to look for some sort of buying the dollar Again, we do have in fact quite a wide zone of supply But the higher level was really where if you're looking for any kind of short trades based off of some sort of risk off sentiment coming into play then Then that's really where you want to start to look for potential short trades But for now again, I think just buying the dollar going long dollars It's just really waiting for pullbacks for me. So there is an opportunity to short if you want And not to say that prices can't you know pull back But for me, it's just one-way trading for me for the foot on the dollar yen And that's where I am dollar Swiss pretty much same thing Again nice Nice demand zone last week's analysis still on here Looking at buy trades. So we do have that level has held I was kind of expecting prices to come just a bit lower Really want your prices to come lower so I could get involved in that trade wasn't able to get involved in that move higher unfortunately So can't catch them all but as long as you get the direction, right? And that's really the main thing because when you do catch them you've got the You've got the Sorry Yeah, you're doing it consistently, right? You're you're literally picking directions consistently, which is what we do at trading 180. So where are we now from a sell trade perspective? If you're looking at buying the Swiss franc and selling the dollar, of course We haven't quite come up into that supply zone just yet So that's not really a sell and from a demand zone perspective the nearest demand zone if prices come all the way back down here So again, I think if we get you know bearish candle Higher highs and then a pull back into that zone be, you know, the probably the The trade to take from a daily time frame perspective again, you can always try to look for short trades up here For me, why would you want to but there is a higher Supply zone also as well We've got to zoom out and have a look at just the profit-taking perspective And just also remember that the more times a level is touched level level the weaker It becomes because if it got stronger then prices would pretty much go nowhere, right? There would be they would forever main trapped within a range, right? So It doesn't make any sense for for for prices to keep touching levels and getting stronger. So From that perspective, this is probably more likely to break Again from a Swiss franc perspective, there's no reason really to buy the Swiss franc if we're not if there's no real kind of risk off That's gonna take That's gonna the market's gonna care about yes We've got you know, Russia and and Ukraine which is a definitely a risk-off event and that could cause prices to go lower But I just you know pushes prices to where you want to really be a buyer of the dollar But once that situation is resolved because it will get resolved at some point dollar CAD and the dollar CAD again dollar CAD you got two you really got kind of two Pairs that are that you know, it's strong In a sense of they're both their central banks are hiking rates. So this is a harder trade, you know from a divergence perspective Again, I think the Canadian dollar not hiking rates This last week There was a bit of a shock. I think the market expected that the Canadian dollar to hike rates and they didn't so and whereas, you know the The Fed pretty much, you know Really hawkish. So you're seeing that kind of play out in the market. There is a Bit of a supply zone. Yeah, I'll draw it from here supply zone there and another supply zone up top and Again, just something interesting because you've seen it that this level's been touched several times. So what could happen is in fact That level right there Yeah, could actually be I Tested and potentially stop-hunted for those of you who are in the Private members discord group. You could get a manipulation around here and then, you know to the downsides So that is very very interesting not a pair I'm looking at to be fair, but I do like the technical setup really like that But if you do like the any of these supply zones to get short and want to buy the Canadian dollar over the US dollar Then you know be my guest. That's where you are if you want to be a buyer of the US dollar Then that's going to be the first area to look for long trades Looking at the pound and the pound again has come off this area here and Really kind of getting cutting Through I guess that demand zone and demand zones again This is this was a harder trade to figure out fundamentally because you've got again two central banks that are looking to You know high crates right the Bank of England are hiking rates as well as the Federal Reserve. So From that perspective in fact, I mean delete that from that perspective It's difficult to say which one you should be buying or selling for me I think they really the the trade could have gone either way But with the Fed being you know really hawkish At the moment and the pound Being you know fairly hawkish or maybe you know, I would say there's decisions to be made I think again from last week not a pair that I'm interested in but you know the path of these resistance Probably was going to be more slightly to the downside, but looking at the The central banks and what they're really looking to do so Europe's big two Deep and split on inflation response. So you've got the UK Brazil check central banks to hike and DCB To hold policy. So there's a divergence there, right? You've got the Bank of England Hawks and doves Generally, you know, the the monetary policy Committee members are hawkish. They're they're more, you know, content on a or say content But they're looking to hike rates, right? So he's hold hike or Titan and this really is, you know What what the the vote is probably likely to be right because then they have to kind of tame inflation So from a buying perspective of the pound, the pound is definitely a buy against the dollar I wouldn't necessarily trade this pair against the dollar, but you've got You know from a technical analysis perspective, I think there's a decent demand zone there To potentially take advantage of I'll delete that so really if you're looking to buy the the pound I would say waiting for price to come down into that zone there zoom out a little bit That level's been put in touch several times So it might be open for a manipulation below that before going higher or if you're looking for a buy on a dollar Against the pound really a pull back into these zones to look for sell trades But either way, I don't really have a bias on this because I'm not really trading it Euro dollar though I am and again many of the guys made You know really nice Profit in the group. We were pretty much predicting this again. You can look at last week's Analysis with literally just saying, you know sell Sell euros and buy dollars, right? We've been saying that again. You can check the track record You can check the the the the videos in the YouTube channels and go back all the Sundays And I've been saying, you know sell Euro buy dollars sell Euro buy dollars sell Euro buy dollars He's no surprise to see pretty much what's been happening, right? So with that being said we've got You know that that demand zone is broken and again just to sound like a broken record, but there's no Technical analysis that's going to stand in the way of fundamentals of this sentiment none There's no supply zone demand zone is no support is no resistance because price doesn't move based off of you know Support and resistance and and supply and demand in a sense in the way that is typically taught. Yes, it moves or supply and demand But fundamentally is what you need to understand from a supply and demand perspective not technicals Are not going to tell you the whole picture? All right But I think this is a really nice level. It's one thirteen ten if prices pulled back to that zone there Very very nice for a potential sell trade if it could come back up to that area But if you do want to be a buyer, I don't think there's any really zone that I would want to be a buyer at on the Euro Of course prices could you know come up based off of you know, what did European Central Bank say this week? But I think overall if you're looking at you know, just Europe in general Not this was which one was it so yeah, so inflation outlook For the for Europe no reason for the European Central Bank to change track Simka says so this is basically One of the European Central Bank Governing Council members I think says that the European Central Bank has no need to fundamentally change this assessment on the inflation outlook outlook Or accelerate policy tightening, right? So there's no need to accelerate Or even entertain hiking You know with the European Central Bank also as well you've got Germany slash his growth forecast as virus surge slows Rebounds the government cuts 2022 grow forecast of 3.6 from 4.1 So in this in the short term at least it's it's difficult to kind of justify the For the European Central Bank to kind of justify why they should be you know Hiking rates or appreciating their currency there is going to be a time for it for sure But for now in the short term, I think the euro dollar is still a sell, right? So any pullback doesn't mean that you know, I'm gonna be a buyer doesn't really matter I'm just looking for a short raise until You know the divergence basically gap closes and they I guess they more converge essential banks I'm moving forward to the Australian dollar US dollar and again with the with the US dollar hiking rates in March and the Australian dollar really kind of standing still on rates Although the expectation for the for the Australian dollar is actually potentially this this week They could actually start to quantitative tightening or reduce their quantitative reason if they do that Right or basically end their quantitative easing Programming if they do that, I think actually Australian dollar is a buyer So it's come down to a really really nice area Technically, but again for me, I wouldn't necessarily buy the Australian dollar against another strong currency I'll buy the Australian dollar against the weak currency like for example the The Australian the yen or the Swiss franc for example, so or even the euro so So from that perspective, you've got to you know, pick your pairs wisely But nice technically I do like that zone, but just from a fundamental perspective. I'm not interested in this pair whatsoever So it's various supply zones Depending on what happens with the Australian dollar That's a buy as far as you know the ECB meet ECB, sorry the RBA meeting or the or there might be a sell trade here Which is decent for a yeah for a sell trade if you buy in the US dollar and finally gold so gold sold off I was talking to a trader about this on the think on Friday and Yeah prices pretty much came up to this nice Supply zone and they're pretty much pinpoint sold off people might be saying well, why did it set off? Why did it set off? Well, you've got a hawkish Fed You know came out this week and pretty much said that they're looking to hike More right and you always always have to remember that I'm not saying that you know gold is a sell Right that there is obviously, you know times that maybe you want to sell gold or maybe you want to buy gold But the point is is that? You've got to understand that there's a divergence between First of all risk sentiment isn't a strong yes again I've mentioned Russia and Ukraine but from the perspective of the US dollar and the economy growing as well So the the the economy grew this week was actually better than ex forecasted for the US dollar Which indicates more hikes? So for holding the dollar you're gonna get a return if they're hiking from zero point two five to potentially zero point five or even potentially even zero point seven five They could hike to in one in one go then Why would anyone want to hold gold and they can hold the dollar and get you know some return on that? Right so yes, I understand gold is a hedge against inflation But if interest rate hikes start to bring inflation down then obviously the end gold becomes devalued because of the fact that You know the dollar is getting stronger due to you know inflation coming down or starting to appreciate Which then would have that negative effect of gold coming down, right? So Again, not necessarily something that I'm trading or interested in but There are obviously opportunities. I think this is probably the zone now to look for potential buyers if you're looking at buyers for me Again, it's a difficult one because you've got you know dollar You've got dollar strength coming in but then you've got the gold bug You know bugs who are saying that you know inflation regardless what they've Fed do may not be enough and I think if if gold would be a buyer for example the Fed of high crates, right and For example, if they hike rates, but yet Inflation still starts to go up as well Then I think gold is going to be a big buy but for now with the rumor circulating and pretty much all bought priced in That the Fed are gonna hike rates gold may start to still you know tail off But let's see But these are the areas really that you want to look for by trades or prices pulled back any sell trades in there So that brings us to the end of the video. I hope you enjoyed it if you were Like the video again, please don't forget to press that like button and subscribe and comment They're always your comments are always appreciated and guys take care until the next video. Have a great trading week