 Hey there and welcome inside studio 34. This is the fan duel hurry up I'm Frank Stanford joined today by number fire analyst Jim sinus We're gonna jump right into the conference championship round starting off with the value plays in DFS this weekend specifically on Fan duel Jim you like Jared golf. I've heard plenty of times throughout the season. How much you love Jared golf Why do you like him this weekend? Yeah? I'm always a big Jared golf fan, but I think when you look at this specific slate There is a lot of value in getting a quarterback who is playing indoors because we could see some Potentially funky weather up in Kansas City and in addition to that Jared golf is just cheaper than the other quarterbacks on the slate He has $8,000 Patrick Mahomes is 9,000 and Drew breathes $8,800 You're getting $800 savings for Jared golf compared to those two guys I think that can go a long way when you're trying to squeeze in guys like Michael Thomas Travis Kelsey Alvin Kumara and Todd Gurley that goes a really long way But golf actually does have a path to a potential good game this weekend We saw him play well in the Superdome back in week number nine now You'll know pretty quickly that was about with Cooper Cup in that game And the Saints did not have Marcus Davenport But the Saints also will not have Sheldon Rankins for this weekend So I kind of think things do balance out a bit where we could see Jared golf play well in this game You'll note the home road splits to for Jared golf He plays much better in LA than he does in the road But a lot of that is due to that one bad game in Chicago where it was crazy cold against a really good pass defense It golf outside of that one game was still an above average passer from an efficiency perspective when he left Los Angeles So I think that there is a scenario in which Jared golf does very well this weekend as he plays inside Against a middling pass defense. So to me, I think there is enough reason here to justify Saving a little bit of salary go with Jared golf at $8,000 and allowing those savings to help you get higher upside other positions as well Jared golf $8,000 this weekend in the conference championship round remember in week nine against the Saints He threw for 391 yards and three touchdowns Hopefully he can come close to replicating that once again this weekend Moving on we have Damien Williams and the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the New England Patriots Number fire has Damien Williams projected for 96 total yards a right around three receptions He's only $7,200 on Fandle Jim. Why do you like Damien Williams so much this weekend? A lot of it comes down to what you mentioned that salary for Damien Williams is super low because he's cheaper than James White He is cheaper than Sony Michelle cheaper than both the top backs in the Saints and Ransky Then I think if you want a quasi workhorse running back This is the cheapest you can spend on Fandle at $7,200 I think that's just too cheap for a guy who played the role that Williams did last week in that game He played 75% of the snaps 25 carries and the big thing that I love about Williams six targets That is a huge thing when they're those targets are tied to a guy who is as good as Patrick Mahomes Well, the other thing about that Williams that are about Damien Williams that I like is that he is cheaper as mentioned than Sony Michelle and Michelle is a game flow to script Game flow depended back. So if the Patriots get down Michelle's probably not gonna get the rock But Williams is a guy who can be viable pretty much no matter what the game script may be now We could see people potentially pivot away from Williams this week because Spencer where could be back I got unlimited practices last week before eventually being inactive But I think even if where it does come back, it's probably still going to be Williams backfield We saw him get that contract extension earlier this year He's been really good when the cheese have used and so I kind of thinks is Damien Williams backfield to lose at this point So for $7,200, there is a lot working in his favor the cheese. They're at home. They're favorite I think that is that's enough justification for me to spend down on him Even when there are a lot of really tempting running backs on this slate Damien Williams have scored in his last five games. He's gone over a hundred yards in three of those as well So really just a ton to like here about Williams not worried about Spencer where either also have to throw it out there Just another player that Adam Gates let slip through his fingertips while with Miami moving on We have Sammy Watkins and Jim I'm gonna give you all the credit in the world while he wasn't amazing last week Sammy Watkins was solid He looks spry and our colleague Greg substance was killing you for Advocating Sammy Watkins, but he looked pretty good Yeah, Greg Greg turned out to be right once Watkins fumbled those I gotta tip my cap to Greg on that one too We can both be right I think I will go with that one there for sure But I think the good thing about Watkins in that first game back is that he looked good as you mentioned and he played a ton He played 93% of the snaps in that game for the cheese He had eight targets and one of those targets was in the red zone If we look at the full games that Watkins has played this year for the cheese He has a 20% target market share that is not as high as Travis Kelsey or Tyree kill, but it's still a really good number He also has 20% of the cheese red zone targets in those games Which is second on the team behind Travis Kelsey The other thing I like about Sammy Watkins for this week is that when you think about Bill Belichick as a defensive guru He always tries to take away The opposing teams best target now that could be Travis Kelsey or it could be Tyree kill That is not going to be Sammy Watkins if you're thinking of this from a skinny perspective So I kind of think that if you're Bill Belichick you try to force the cheese to beat you through Sammy Watkins And that makes me like Sammy Watkins even more for this week. He has $5,600 on the two-game slay for Fandal. I think there is a path to a really good day You're tying your assets to Patrick Mahomes, which I love as well So there are some really good cheap wide receivers for this two-game slate But for me, it's really hard to stay away from Sammy Watkins given how much and how well he played last week outside of that fumble Sammy Watkins 20% of the target share this year in the games that he played with the chiefs at just $5,600 you're getting exposure to that offense. I'm with you Jim sign me up Moving on we have Ted Ginn inside the Super Dome this week going up against the Los Angeles Rams and Jim We all saw it last week on the first play of the game Drew Brees trying to take a shot down the field just under through Ted Ginn It was a phenomenal play by the defense as well You got to give credit where it's due but if he leads him out in front We're talking about Ted Ginn scoring a long touchdown in that game. Why else do you like him going up against the Rams defense? Yeah, don't remind my bankroll of that play happening there Frank as that was a catastrophe Ted Ginn so close to a huge day at a superbly high ownership But it was justified there and I think even though the price has gone up on Ted Ginn to $5,300 There's still a lot of juice there. You mentioned playing inside. I love that for Ted Ginn It always makes me more welcoming towards wide receivers when I get them indoors on top of that Ted Ginn despite the fact that he's always kind of been this gadgety type player. It's never really been a hugely involved in any offense that he's been in he's been good this year for the Saints and they have used him quite a bit He has 16% of the Saints targets in the games He has played that is in addition to getting 38% of their targets at least 16 yards downfield So when Drew Brees decides to go deep and Ted Ginn is there the ball is pretty much always going to Ted Ginn As you mentioned, he could have had a really big game last week But overall the usage was still there for Ted Ginn He had three targets at least 16 yards downfield in that one too And I'm kind of hoping people are turned off by the box score of last week because the box score Wasn't that great for Ted Ginn under 50 yards receiving But if you watch the game, you know the potential for a really good game was there So I want to say some salary wide receiver again as mentioned with Watkins I think that Ted Ginn is the other other really good route for doing so. So Ted Ginn to me I think makes sense to go back to him once again for the conference championships Jim true story. I had Ted Ginn to score the first touchdown in that game at plus 1600 So you can just imagine how I felt watching that interception taking place And then the Eagles proceed to go down the field and score a touchdown with Jordan Matthews. Yada yada He's $5,300 this weekend going up against the Rams. I really like him at that price Chris Hogan of the New England Patriots going in to face the Kansas City Chiefs Jim Chris Hogan led a lot of people down this year from a season-long and DFS perspective But you need to find somewhere to save money this week. He's only $5,200 going up against the Chiefs Why do you like Chris Hogan? Yeah, I think it's kind of similar to Ted Ginn where it's pretty volatile for Chris Hogan But the usage has been there for him since Josh Gordon left the team We've now got a three-game sample on this Patriots offense since Josh Gordon left the team and Hogan's role has been okay He has 16% of the team's targets in those three games. He did have 11 in one game against the Jets So it's been kind of an up-and-down roll, but overall 16% of the target. That's not a bad number for Chris Hogan He has 31% of their deep targets and 25% of the red zone targets So there is a path for Chris Hogan where he could catch a deep ball Maybe get one in the red zone and score a touchdown in which case at $5,200 He's gonna pay off pretty easily for you. The other thing I like about Chris Hogan for this weekend is that When you think about this Chief secondary you kind of want bigger bodied wide receivers to face them And that's not gonna be Edelman. It's probably gonna be more Chris Hogan. He is six-foot-one. He's got some speed to him That's more the archetype of wide receiver I want to have facing this Chief's defense than the Edelman type. Now Edelman's still gonna get his targets Like he's still going to potentially beast out in this game. I'm not saying don't use him But when Hogan is $5,200 and such a big savings from guys like Edelman and James Light I kind of think that Hogan does make sense if you're trying to get exposure to this Patriots passing offense They're facing the Chiefs and offense. I could put up points in a hurry We could see a scenario which the Patriots are throwing the ball a ton and if they do so that will further inflate The expected targets for Chris Hogan. So I kind of think he makes a lot of sense to this weekend He has burned me as well throughout the season both her best ball and for season long But I think there is enough here to justify spending down on him this weekend at $5,200 making him another Potentially cheap wide receiver we can turn to at times. Let me tell you something Brother, make sure you get Chris Hogan in your lineup this weekend because only $5,200 and for what it's worth in Week six against the Chiefs. He had his season high with 78 receiving yards Moving on we have Josh Hill of the New Orleans Saints tight end here going up against the Los Angeles Rams This has been a common theme look you want to spend up for guys like Patrick my homes And you want to get Alvin Kamara and you want to get whoever else in your lineup You got to find somewhere to save money Josh Hill this weekend only $4,600. What do you like about Josh Hill Jim? Yeah, when you look at tight ends on this slate is Travis Kelsey has this superb market share super involved in his offense He's awesome, but then after that There's really nobody else that tied in so if I'm not using Travis Kelsey I kind of want to spend as far down as I can and Josh Hill is a guy at $4,600 Dollars who at least is on the field. I think that's encouraging for a tight end for this weekend He'll ran 19 routes in the Saints divisional round win over the Eagles I was most in the team Compared to 15 for Benjamin Watson that data via pro football focus He'll had three targets in that one Watson had one and if you look back in their first game against the Rams they did use their tight ends as Benjamin Watson had a really sick catch in that game also had a touchdown so We know the Saints are willing to use our tight ends They've got this huge implied team total and Hill seems to have moved ahead of Benjamin Watson in the past catching tight end role So again, I'm trying to spend down at tight end where I can for this week He'll does not have a great role, but again three targets last week. He is running some routes I kind of think that I want to just give myself the best odds at scoring a touchdown with my Salary saving tight end and for Josh Hill given the offense he has tied to given the fact that he is the past catching tight end on This team. I think Hill is the most logical route for doing so now you could wind up, you know getting no points That's certainly a risk But I think Josh Hill's in play along with both Gerald Everett and Tyler Higby as potential ways to say some salary at tight end Look, it's not much but he'll tide a season high in receptions last week with three against the Eagles again This is just you're trying to get everyone else in your lineup You got to spend down at the tight end position one way to do so is getting Josh Hill in your lineup at just forty six hundred dollars When we come back we'll move into the stacks that we want to use this weekend in the conference championship round That is Jim Sonnis of number fire. I am Frank Santhul will be right back right after this Welcome back to the fan duel hurry up I am Frank Santhul joined by number fire analyst Jim Sonnis Continuing to talk about the DFS slate this weekend specifically on fan duel and Jim I want to get into some stacks here specifically Patrick Mahomes and Travis Calci this one seems like it might be a little bit self-explanatory Still I wanted to get your reasoning as to why you like these two this weekend Yeah I'm really hoping people are scared away from this game because of the weather when you look at the weather for this game It's projected to be very chilly in Kansas City And people could use that as a justification for not using these two guys together, but at the same time in general I don't care too much about temperature It's more so about wind and the wind for this game at least when I looked here on Wednesday Not projected to be too high and as long as that stays the case I think we could see another good game from Travis Calci and Patrick Mahomes last week was cold too We still saw Mahomes hooking up with Kelsey Continuously in that game just as a touchdown away from having a huge game Mahomes Just had you know some bad touchdown luck with the Tyree kill rushing touchdown the Damian Williams rushing touchdown So I think both those guys could have had huge days against the Colts She didn't quite have the touchdowns work in their favor We just send me Watkins back for the Chiefs now and Travis Kelsey has been good even when Watkins has been out there He has 26% of the Chiefs targets 32% of their deep targets and 24% of their red zone targets in the games that Watkins has played at least half of snaps this year So Kelsey's still a big part of this offense He is the only tight end on this slate who has a legitimate role So if you're paying up a tight end, it's gonna be Travis Kelsey There are no other options and I think when you view him as being a wide receiver It is pretty pretty easy to swallow that salary of Kelsey, which is in the mid $7,000. So looking at this slate, I think I do prefer Drew Brees at quarterback over Patrick Mahomes But Mahomes to me pretty easily number two on that list. So I like this stack quite a bit I think that again, it could have blown up last week. Mahomes has at least 17.82 fandal points in every game so far this year So I'll take that safety even if it is a little bit chilly in Kansas City on Sunday Jim you mentioned the weather, but you didn't mention this crazy blood wolf moon lunar eclipse thing that we have It just seems like everything's setting up for the Kansas City Chiefs this weekend for them to all go off And if they all go off that means Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelsey is part of that Which means they should be in your fantasy lineups this weekend Moving on I mentioned the Chiefs. We've got more Chiefs for you That's right We got the Damian Williams and Chiefs defense stack and I always think it's interesting to hear your take on these Jim because You know, I've never I never really thought about it this way But you like when you expect the defense to play well and how that can kind of Lead itself to the running back for that same exact team. There's kind of a correlation there, right? Absolutely, I think about when you're filling out a tournament line If you're kind of making assumptions like if I assume that the Chiefs play well That means their defense should do well for DFS and it also means they're probably going to be leading late Which would lead to more volume for Damian Williams Which is why I think that this stack does make a lot of sense and this Patriots team is a different team when they're on The road compared to when they are at home They have allowed 4.83 yards per carry when they've been on the road Which is a pretty big number compared to 4.53 when they're at home and the defense is allowed 24 points per game on the road Compared to 17 points per game at home and that does include games against Josh McCown and Derek Anderson so it's not as if they faced this insane lineup of quarterbacks in the road and this time They're facing Patrick Mahomes So I think there is a very real scenario in which this Chiefs team gets up early They can allow those really good pass rushers to get after Tom Brady This pass rush has been phenomenal in Arrowhead this year The defense for the Chiefs has a 9.6 percent sacrate at home compared to 5.7 percent When they go on the road So if we get a scenario where Patrick Mahomes gives this Chiefs team a lead early That means they can lean on Damian Williams and that defensive line can pin its ears back and get after Tom Brady That is beneficial for both Damian Williams and for the Chiefs defense So I think if you're using Williams it increases the odds that the Chiefs defense does well So I think pairing them together is a really logical way if you're assuming the Chiefs play well in this game Yeah, that makes a lot of sense here Jim And I'm sure Bob Sutton is going to have this Chiefs defense fired up Especially after what they just did last week against the Indianapolis Colts pretty much throwing them around and it seemed like there was a Badded ball on a passing attempt every single other throw for Andrew Luck I'm sure they'll be fired up once again against the Patriots this weekend Moving on we have Tom Brady and James White the same James White that had 15 Receptions a week ago against the Los Angeles Chargers Jim There's just something about Tom Brady and James White once the playoffs turn on that these two just clicked together Do we see that again this week against the Kansas City Chiefs? Yeah, I think based on what we saw last week as you mentioned Frank It kind of seems like the game plan for the Patriots this week could go one of two ways They could decide to ride Sony Michelle and try to keep that Chiefs offense off the field Which I would not blame them for doing so and that could lead you away from James White and towards Sony Michelle But that also assumes that the Chiefs don't score because if you got Sony Michelle out there It means that the Patriots have a lead and it's gonna be pretty hard to stop this Chiefs defense So I think if this Patriots offense puts up a lot of points It should be on the shoulder of Tom Brady and through the hands of James White This Chiefs defense does just funnel targets towards running backs and a lot of 102 receiving yards to Melvin Gordon 69 to TJ Yelden 53 to James White in their first meeting 78 yards to Duke Johnson and 85 to David Johnson So teams have been shredding this Chiefs defense through the passing game via their running backs That leads the could lead to a lot of James White and James White has been Super involved in this offense since Josh Gordon left with 26% of the team's targets and 30% of their red zone targets in this three game sample as you mentioned 15 catches for him last week 17 targets for James White and he played 46% of the snaps even though the Chiefs got out or the Patriots got ahead early in that game That's a game script that set up more for Michelle than it did for James White But White still had a respectable snap rate and got a ton of volume so I think there are reasons to be concerned about Tom Brady in this game given the fact that In general, he doesn't have a lot of receivers who can't get separation But James White is one of those guys out of the backfield who can get open and give Tom Brady a safety blanket So if you assume the Patriots keep pacing this game, I kind of think it is through James White and Tom Brady So I'm totally in favor of stacking them up if you think the Patriots will play well on Sunday Patriots are getting three points this weekend against the Kansas City Chief So the Ozmakers certainly expect this game to be close and competitive on top of that The Chiefs gave up the fourth most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season for all those reasons we're in on James White and Tom Brady together Through breeze and Michael Thomas inside the Superdome going up against the Los Angeles Rams gym This is another stack that you liked this weekend Tell us why but I just kind of want to throw a little curve ball in here as well Does the fact that a keep to leave is on the other side here? Where are you at all about Michael Thomas? Oh, definitely it should because the Rams defense is totally different when a keep to leave is out there They're allowed in seven point two yards per attempt with a key to leave out there compared to eight point eight three When a key to leave is not on the field according to the quant edge So it's a really big difference when a key to leave is out there But it's also a big difference for the Saints when Ted Gin is out there because he gives you this field Stretching, you know member of the offense who can ensure that they give some more space to Michael Thomas because in games that Ted Gin has played this year Michael Thomas has 31% of the Saints targets and he still gets 23% of their targets least 16 yards downfield So it's not as if Michael Thomas is just working underneath He does still get some deep targets when Ted Gin is out there It just means he gets more targets underneath and Thomas also gets 33% of their red zone targets When Ted Gin is active so a key to leave is a really good player And I think that he totally changes the dynamic of this Rams defense, but so does Ted Gin on the other side of this one So that's why I like Michael Thomas this week as far as Drew Brees go goes at least 16 Fandal points in every home game he has played this year So I kind of think when you're looking at this slate if you want to avoid the cold in KC And you want to get a home quarterback who is favored your only option is Drew Brees But he is a really good one. He has shown he can still ball out in the dome I know he had a couple of under throws last week and that you know, certainly is a thing to consider But Drew Brees, he's still got it. He can still rack up big points on Fandal So if you assume this game stays close, I think that means a lot of passing for the Saints A lot of a lot of Michael Thomas and a lot of Drew Brees as well So I'm totally in favor of stacking those two up even with a key to leave being out there for the Rams Just a little reminder Drew Brees threw for 346 yards and four touchdowns last time They faced the Los Angeles Rams in their week nine Matchup just another reason to like Drew Brees and Michael Thomas heading into this weekend Jim loves these running back defense stacks here and we're getting into another one But it's not as traditional as you'd expect. It's not Alvin Kamara in the Saints defense He likes the Saints defense, but he likes stacking him stacking them with Mark Ingram. Why is that Jim? It's pretty much purely a salary based play for Mark Ingram because he has $6,100 for this weekend In general, I prefer Alvin Kamara by a pretty wide margin if you look at their usage in the divisional round It really did show why but also you think about that game The Saints were trailing for a pretty good portion of it They were down 14 nothing early and that is a game script that sets up better for Alvin Kamara than it does to Mark Ingram But even with that game script being negative for the Saints Ingram still had nine carries and two targets And played 40 of the snaps also had a pretty long run in there So it's not as if he totally disappeared and there's always a chance that Mark Ingram gets a touchdown I think that could be enough at this salary Given the lack of you know, just general bodies on this slate because it is a Such a short slate and if Mark Ingram does well that means the Saints defense should be playing from ahead That can allow them to get to Jared Goff Potentially get you know an interception a sack a fumble things like that So it's kind of the same thing we discussed with Damien Williams If you assume that the Saints are leading that could lead to additional Mark Ingram and additional opportunities For this defense. So in general, I'd rather get to Alvin Kamara I prefer him by a pretty wide margin But if you need to say some salary and you make the assumption that the Saints do roll in this game It would benefit well for both Mark Ingram and the Saints defense So I think if you're going to use Mark Ingram you pretty much have to roll them out there with the Saints defense as well Jim Son is doing something a little bit different here using Mark Ingram and the Saints defense as a potential stack going up against the Rams in the conference championship Finally, we have Jared Goff and Todd Gurley as a stack here expecting those two to hook up quite a few times throughout this game Jim, I have to throw another curve ball your way. I'm sorry, but uh, does CJ Anderson were you at all here? Yeah, for sure. I think that that's why I'm not going to be on Todd Gurley if I were playing cash games this week I'm not a huge fan of cash games in general for a two-game slate But if I were playing then probably wouldn't be huge into Todd Gurley because CJ Anderson could always come in And take away those goalie carries, but even with CJ Anderson playing a lot last week Todd Gurley still had pretty good usage He had 16 carries and two targets in that game and played 57 of the snaps The reasoning behind CJ Anderson at least according to Sean McVeigh and the broadcaster in the game Was that they were worried about the conditioning for Todd Gurley You give him an extra game to you know, get that game conditioning back And what should be a game that is tight? I kind of think that could lead to an expanded role once again for Todd Gurley here The other thing I like about Todd Gurley in this matchup is that Sheldon Rankins is out for the Saints Unfortunately because he is a great player and it's a huge loss for the Saints team They allowed 3.83 yards per carry with Sheldon Rankins or without Sheldon Rankins this year Compared to 3.41 with him That's according to the quant edge that should open up some additional rushing lanes for Todd Gurley here Gurley also a factor in the passing game We saw Malcolm Brown score a receiving touchdown against the Saints in this first matchup So I don't think Gurley is a must for this week, but If you make the assumption that this game stays close I kind of think that means that Todd Gurley should be in there quite a bit which bodes well for him And it also bodes well for Jared golf again Allowing you to save a little bit of salary at quarterback and spend up for guys like Gurley and like Michael Thomas So I do like this matchup a pretty decent amount for the Rams And I think if they keep it close we should see a lot of Gurley and if that does happen He could go bananas here. So Todd Gurley pretty intriguing and definitely not opposed to stacking him with Jared golf Jared golf and Todd Gurley the final stack here of the weekend heading into the conference championships Jim Sonnes a little worried about CJ Anderson says, you know Might not want to use Todd Gurley in cash games But we still do know the upside that he possesses especially when it comes to catching balls from Jared golf That is Jim Sonnes of number fire. I am Frank stampful Make sure you head on over to the fantasy sports network youtube channel for more where this came from Thank you so much for watching. We'll see you guys tomorrow