 Hello and welcome to the Monday market update with me David Madden. Today's date is Monday the 10th of June 2019 and the time has just gone 1155 British summertime It's been largely speaking a fairly positive start to the European session a number of actors are coming to play here and essentially Trade tensions global trade tensions have pooled a little and that has helped extra markets push on From the fairly strong finish that had at the back end of last week Starting off with the kind of most important one Over the refer from Steve Mnuchin the US Treasury Secretary who stated that President Trump isn't going to make a decision in relation to the increase of Chinese tariffs until President Trump missed at the the Chinese leader later this month So it would appear But for the time being things are going to tick along as they are in relation to US China trade Obviously that can change but for the time being it seems that things are kind of Added a bit of a standstill in relation to US China trade and we have seen in recent weeks and months Whatever that there's no negative news. We've often seen traders and Enter by a backing of the market and that's precisely what we're seeing Speaking of trade We've heard of the weekend that the US isn't going to press ahead with an increase if I by importing the tariffs on Imported from Mexico It's not really a massive surprise And it was quite it was quite clear that the threat of tariffs on Mexican imports Was largely to do was it basically to be to do with border security? Mexico I've stepped up the board security in relation to the US the Mexican US border and the US government quote a full confidence In the Mexican government's ability to kind of maintain a higher level of security So they're the kind of the really kind of the big issues in relation to kind of global trade being eased We had to have some economic indicators out of China overnight to be honest There's some good news in there. There's some bad news in there Starting up with the bad news Chinese exports, you know in US dollar terms declined to Chinese imports imports US dollar in you in US dollar terms declined by 8.5 percent Which really does kind of highlight Declined demand in the second largest economy the world but on the bright side exports actually increased by 1.1 percent, which isn't huge But it was a decent enough rebound to comparison with the decline of 2.7 percent in the previous reading So that the mixed picture there It shows that in exports are still rising despite the fact that there are tariffs on their goods But the but the foolish size of a decline in Chinese imports paints a picture that demanded declining I keep mind China's economy has been has been cooling for the last decade or so So this can add further way to the argument That China probably they probably can they can handle the trades back with the US probably to really don't really don't want one So they're the kind of the big kind of the big stories on the last Take a couple of days taking a look at European equity markets starting off with the FTSE 100 This is fairly common I'm gonna cross the board how we had a fairly sizable move from late December often up until April So it multi mod highs in April But notice how we had a lower low a lower high another lower low But so what you can know could be could be the sign of a downward trend But notice how the markets pushed on higher here managed to move above the 50 moving average In fact managed you I should take out the recent kind of mid-may high here So this could be the sign If you can hold above these levels and predict if you can hold above the fifth day moving average at 7339 if you could hold above these levels and build on it It could be to assign that we're kind of over the work We're over we're gonna we're gonna fully recoup the ground that we lost between Between late April and early June So this could be a sign that we're actually gonna recover all the ground if it can press on higher from here We could be looking at retargeting this area here in around the seven thousand four hundred and sixty mark And if you press on higher beyond that You'll be looking at retesting the late April high of in around 7,520 30 ish I don't if you go beyond that if you've been looking at reckoning this area here in around 7,558 But if the market does manage to turn over on itself yet again and have a sharp move to the downside We could be looking at heading back down towards this get a line here the one already moving average Which comes into play at seventy two twenty one And we can see that on a few occasions recently that we saw some consolidation in that area And we saw a clear example of support coming to play here So the metric is actually a support in the past which makes it More likely that it will do so in the near term But if the area to keep them out for to be really worried about is this area here the early June low in around 7,000 and 79 if you take it if a size of break below that That would be a kind of you know a month That would be another lower low and a multi-year multi-month low and I could point you for the losses Penetrate you down to the psychology Portland 7,000. I take a look now what's going on over in the US Starting off with the the Dow Jones So similar situation where by the US market between January mid-December and An April quite an impressive run quite a bit of ground has been given up Between late April and early June, but similar to similar situation to the FTSE 100 or by the rally here In this case it actually come to be above It's a fifth of the moving average and the highs here have taken up highs of kind of middle mid-May And so it's looking We you know if you could hold above this blue line here the fifth of the moving average Which basically comes into play at the cycle as you actually important 26,000 mark if you could hold above that It's like a likely to be good press on higher from here and target this this region here in around 26,400 and if you go beyond that we're going to be heading up towards the 26,700 mark here So we've already recouped quite a bit of the ground Which is which suggests that we are going to continue to press on higher from here But if you do manage to actually turn over ourselves yet again We could be looking at falling back to this yellow line here the 100 moving average Which comes into play in around 25,750 The metric act is both support and resistance on a few occasions In the last few weeks of the last few weeks, so it makes it more likely that that'll be of importance in the near term and even if you Push below that support could be found from this trend line here You can notice how it acted as both resistance and also support at the beginning of the beginning of the year It's sort of acted as support In mid-May, so that trend line comes into play in around the kind of 24 25,500 ish mark So that region might act as support and then they also keep mind running far away from the turning moving average this red line here in at 25,415 So the general area might act as support should we see a move to the downside Take a look at what's going on with the SFB 500. It's a similar situation or by After a very impressive rally between late December and early And early May the market has managed to give up my manage gave up a fair bit of ground But we have recouped a sizable amount of those losses. So the ground that was lost between May and Basically that the month basically early May to early June a good portion of it has been has been recouped Like with the Dow Jones just be 500 is back above its 50 the moving average the SP 50 moving average comes into play at 28 71 We're not we're pretty much trading at the mid-May high of in around 2800 and 84 85 if you can hold above these levels and if you're gonna press on higher a bit from here It's likely we could be targeting in around the kind of 2920 mark but a consolidation in around here And if you go beyond that we could be leading a target in 2958 If you do have a move to the downside Support could be found from this yellow line here Which is the water to moving average and that comes into play in at 28 15 And if you even move below that it could be found from the kind of psychological important 2800 sorry 2800 mark and once again the trend line Which was back in quite a while This trend line goes straight all the way back to the lows of February 2016 through November 2016 This particular trend line Actors both support and resistance at the back end of last year and also early as relevant in early 2019 so that's trend line which comes to play in around the 2785 mark these are all potential areas for support should we have a move to the downside Take a look now what's going on in gold So gold has had a major rally between basically between late May Until now I've had a major move to the upside in gold. It's almost you know in a straight line Which isn't which usually doesn't last very long, you know the markets If they have a sharp move in one direction, it's difficult for that to be sustained over over a period of time So we might have a bit of a pullback Consider how much ground we managed to kind of come with ground we managed to make is just a short space of time See notice here how on Friday that the market management should hit a level not seen since since April last year, so talking about The highest level in over a in well in just in over a year about about 13 40 mob high didn't actually hold up at that level though and Notice how the market is a bit lower today because we're in more of a the US dollar response back I mean we're in more of a risk on attitude So the market so the gold market As is given a bit of ground if you continue to drift lower from here support could be found from the get from this region here in around 1324 maybe down in a thousand three hundred and twenty or perhaps even as low as this area here in around 1310 Given then it how steep this risk rally is it's possible that the kind of the upward move could continue But might continue at a less steep rate at a less quick rate So we might see a bit of a move to the downside back down towards 1300 and then potentially look to actually push on higher again continue the wider upward trend But I don't have it at a at a more At a less quick pay So if you're going to head back up here, we could be looking at retesting 1346 And if you go beyond that keep out now for 1366 levels that was last seen in her in around April 2018 It's only really if you're going to take out 1300 But then we actually looked about she kind of have a 30 kind of size and move to the downside I thought that is the case support could be found from this blue line here the fifth Moving average which comes into play in around 1290 Turning our attention now to the oil market starting off at Brent crude So the oil market similar to equities and a massive rally between late December and late April and then since then we've had you know a fairly fairly size book Move fairly size book all back So you have the lower low the lower high and lower low and lower high lower low And the market has rebounded again But if you could hold above this area here In around $60 a barrel if you hold above that level as it's possible that we could actually look to kind of push higher push on Hard yet again Now they can a factor behind this elephant gold was concerns about about global trade Those tensions appear to have Let it away somewhat for now. I should kind of trade would become less fearful about global trade We might see a rebound in oil and should you press on higher from here we could be looking at heading up towards this area here in around where In around the kind of 68 dollar mark when we're not too far away from the one or the moving average units at 67 spot 64 and the 30 moving average comes into play in around 68 spot 52 So in around 68 dollars far out there. They're about But if you do manage to actually turn over lower than self again Keep them out for the psychology porn 60 bucks a barrel per 60 bucks per barrel and if you have a break below that We could be looking down towards this area here in around at 57 spot 50 There's a few occasions that actually as a consolidation so it's likely that it could be important in the near term In terms of the price action wise it's a fairly similar situation on WTI provides at a major Valley between the end of 2018 and An April this year We had a fairly sizable sell-off, but notice how the market did manage to sell off didn't really take out The early okay that made it January lows of 50 spot 36 We managed to just about hold above that so if you could hold above that metric We could look you heading back up toward this area here in around 56 dollars a bar We can see on a few occasions that there's a quite a bit of consolidation in that area So keep an eye out for 56 dollars a barrel and if you press on higher from here We can try getting this area here in around the psychology Portland 60 bucks per barrel. I sort of really if you take off the recent lows in around 50 spot 54 or maybe down to a 50 spot 36 It's only really if you take out those lows could be looked ahead back down towards 48 dollars a barrel Or potentially this area here in around at 47 dollars per barrel Take a look now some currencies euro versus US dollar So your daughter was in a fairly clear and obvious downward trend for quite a few months There was decent support coming to play in around that one spot 1110 area, but the market has magic and a press on higher Combination of the the European Central Bank last week worth is dovish and some traders expecting that they were and more recently the Fed reserve I've given some indication that they're open to the idea of interest rate cost towards the back end of this year and and Bond markets have really gone with that second a lot of pressure they put on the dollar So that's where I've seen this size of a bounce back in the euro versus the dollar If you can hold above the kind of the 130 in area It's likely we could press on higher from here Keep an eye for the eternity moving average this red line here, which comes into play in around one 130 can is 62 ish and if you go beyond that keep on there for the mid-march high of in around one spot 1448 and I saw it if you do have money to have a down Market does match to turn over and start yet again So four could be found from this area here in around one spot 12 And the friends the charts goes the last one to look at the pound versus US dollar So pounds starting is obviously I've been a very good example of a downward trend in the last couple of months I think I said looking relatively relatively bearish on the pound starting But if you could hold above the recent lows in a one spot 25 59 It's likely that we could see a continuation of the recent rebound if we can press on higher from here We keep looking at tracking this area here in one spot 28 And if we go beyond that we can head up towards the dirty moving average this red line here in at one spot 2945 or up a fire as one spot 30 But if you do manage to take off the recent lows here We could really keep targeting heading back down towards this region in at one spot 24 76 if you're going to be trading cable Please keep my for keep my on on UK politics Theresa May is no longer the conservative party leader So the the Tory leadership race is on and depending on which candidates are put their hat into the ring And which are looking likely to succeed That's going to drag the British pound around and essentially everyone is going to be looking up the particular candidates Policy and Brexit are they more on the remain side or a soft Brexit prexist? Would you be likely to be less which put this way? Any candidate that is avocating a hard Brexit and it's looking likely that they're going to do they're going to Succeed succeed Prime Minister. Mrs. May That's likely to have a negative impact on the pounds to keep a line for starting volatility in relation to the Tory leadership Quickly taking a look at the week ahead The weekend article can be found on a website if you go to cmcmarkets.com and under under a new to analysis You'll find a good portion of the articles that we do on a daily basis. So scroll down here looking ahead to tomorrow we have UK unemployment and wage data Press Nicholson the the house but the company have first-time figures up tomorrow on Thursday the Swiss National Bank Have their interface decision on Thursday. We have first quarter figures from Tesco On Thursday, we have full year figures from majestic wine We've second quarter numbers from Broadcom on Friday We have Chinese retail sales and industrial production and lasting on Friday. We also have US retail sales Finally before we go if you have any comments to make on this video or any of the other videos We've made here at CMC markets. Please feel free to leave review on reviews. Thank you very much