 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is having a good start to their weekends. It's amazing. We're already at August 1st. It's so funny how time just kind of flies by. We're all stuck in this kind of, for the most part, this kind of serious, weird time in our lives that COVID is playing such a big part of it that our decisions are being kind of made for us. It's amazing that it feels like my kids just got pulled out of school. It feels like two weeks ago and now they're starting school again in about a month from now. And the key question is kind of going forward. And I think every parent needs to make that decision is, you know, how do you proceed, right? You're starting to see some aggressive spikes right now, especially in a lot of states that were pretty calm when COVID started. And again, we've been seeing these really aggressive numbers coming out of Florida, Arizona, Texas, and now, you know, I'm sure a lot of you guys have saw this over the weekend. Like there was a camping trip and like 260 kids are like 10 years old. They all got COVID. And then you got to just use common sense. And look, if you believe that this is not a big deal, okay, that's fine. But, you know, the numbers are showing kind of otherwise. And look, probably nothing will happen to your kids, right? I think everybody kind of believes that even the most conservative parent will believe that. But my point is why put them out there, right? I get the whole thing kids need to be kids. But again, if you don't need to put your kids in harm's way, why do it? So I think, again, no judgments here again, everybody, you know, you can completely parent any way you want. But I think as a society, I think we're putting more exposure in every parts of our lives and we don't have to. And I think based on the information and based on what we're getting, yes, is it probably going to be a non-event for a child? Of course, okay. But again, why take that 0.001% chance? So again, it's a scary time. I think it's a scary time. I think people are adjusting to it more than others. I think the key is just to be practical, whether you believe in masks or you don't believe in masks. You're sending kids to school and not sending kids to school or anything, right? Social distancing. I think you just have to be just use common sense and try to limit the exposure as much as possible. And that's kind of where we, you know, segue right now to the stock market. If you look at what the market has done over the last six months, if you just take March out of the equation when all this first happened and everybody went into mandatory lockdown, obviously some states were a lot more liberal than others and obviously now they're feeling the effects, if you look at the market, the market has been phenomenal, okay? Absolutely phenomenal. And when you take into the equation that the numbers right now, and again, I don't know what the numbers currently are but if you look at 40 million people unemployed, okay, a lot of businesses unfortunately went under and are going to go under and they probably will never reopen again. If you just see where the stock market is, it's amazing. And, you know, the whole argument was kind of going forward was can the stock market, how long can the stock market sustain the strength? Again, a month debt-cad bounce, two months, okay, more debt-cad bounce, but again, we all know it's going to retest the lows. We're already six, seven months in. We're going on our seventh month and we are at all-time highs. And the question of can the stock market continue to rally on the deficiency of lack of majority of households having the ability to kind of, you know, stretch their income or lack of income for unfortunately a lot of people, the answer has been yes, okay? If you look at the old world economy names versus the new world economy names, it's night and day. So, for example, right, you look at a stock, for example, like Boeing, okay? And again, granted, you know, nobody's, well, I can't say nobody's flying, but the airline industry, the cruise industry, the hospitality industry, they're obviously not at their finest points, okay, and it's suffering, okay? Versus, for example, a new economy, right, of an Amazon that everybody, no matter what your income level is, again, if you need toilet paper, you get toilet paper, you need batteries, you get batteries. So there's a big separation, right? Big separation. Even look at, for example, even a Walmart, okay, that everybody has a Walmart around them. Everybody's been in a Walmart, a target in the world. But again, if you look at a Walmart, and again, not that the stock hasn't performed, the stock has obviously done actually pretty well. If you look at the weekly charts, actually done very, very well, but compare it to an Amazon, compare it to a Shopify, correct? Even an Overstock, right? I mean, you guys see what Overstock's been doing, right? You compare it to Overstock, you could quickly see that, again, there is a huge disconnect between the old world economy and the new world economy. So, for example, if you look at a lamb research, right, look at a lamb research versus an Intel, you turn around and say, well, what's the difference? And I don't know, I can't even answer that question. I don't know the difference between these semiconductors, right? I don't know the difference between Intel and NVIDIA and AMD. I understand my processors and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. But again, the spending habits of one company is embracing it versus one company that is obviously feeling the effects of pretty, pretty clear. So for Intel's deficiency, you're getting a really, really aggressive move in an AMD. Again, money flow. And this is the most amazing part about the stock market is just when you think that, okay, companies that come out with crappy earnings, they're going to embrace them like we saw last quarter. They're all going to get a mulligan. But now the second quarter comes, right? The second quarter after the mulligan. What are you guys going to do? Can you actually sustain any type of profitability? Is there a chance that you can make more money than even expected? And again, the new world economy names, and again, maybe an Apple, a Facebook, an Amazon are the poster child for this. But nobody saw what we saw coming on Thursday's session. And when you look at 40 million people unemployed, it's amazing that people, again, are still going to be able to afford $1,500 iPhones, $2,000 MacBooks, right? It's amazing that people are complaining about this and that and having the ability to actually earn a living. But these companies, Apple, beat by $7 billion, okay? Billion, okay? Amazon beat by almost $8 billion. Facebook had ridiculous ad revenues. Somebody's spending money for these companies to sustain, right? Sustained profitability and not even sustain it, but crush every single point of expectation. So the question is, can the stock market sustain this rally? Absolutely. The proof is in the pudding. There is tremendous amount of money flow into this economy. And the question is, where the hell is everybody getting this money? Is everybody selling crack? Like, what is everybody doing? So the idea that 40 million people are unemployed and Apple can beat by $7 billion really does sustain the idea that the stock market can go higher and will go higher unless there's a macro aggressive some sort of event that happens. Now, again, is that event full blown COVID and we completely locked down again? Maybe that's a stretch, okay? I think a lot of states have been doing a great job. New York, New Jersey that had a really aggressive initial thrust in COVID cases. I mean, they're not small now, but they're like 400 a day compared to where New Jersey was a month, month and a half ago at 4,000 cases. So I think there are logical people in the world that are making adult decisions to kind of avoid exposure. Maybe those states will sustain a lot of, well, at least an uptick in economic growth. But I think unless the country completely stands still in the next short term and this gets completely blown out of, blown out of the water, I think the market can go higher. Okay, obviously you'll have periods of time that the market will have back testing and I'm very, very aware of that. Every night, every update, we always go and talk about the macro implications in a micro bubble, right? From day to day. Again, we're trading day to day. We're not making any macro predictions through weeks from now. We don't even know what's going to happen Monday. But again, if you look at the health scale of the stock market based on what we're seeing, especially in the new world order, the online versus the brick and mortar, right? The high-end phone companies, the high-end, excuse me, smart phone companies or smart product companies like an Apple versus like a T-Mobile or something. Okay, you could make that case that we can go higher and we don't need a reason to pull back unless something really materialistically impacts us on a macro basis. The biggest news of the week, right? Not the fact that the Nasdaq did incredibly well, almost a 4% gain. The big news of the week was of everything is going on, right? Everything is going on. China, COVID, everything that's going on, right? The big news of the week was, ready? If you have any 10, 12, 13-year-old kids, please let them leave the room, ready? I'll give it a second, right? The most important part of our lives right now, Trump is planning to ban TikTok from the United States. Let that sink in a little bit. Anyway, guys, let's talk about the market. Really good aggressive trading week. We talked about macro areas for the whole week. The majority of the week was, let's see what happens with earnings. Obviously, earnings were crushed, absolutely crushed by a majority of the companies, especially the Big Four on Thursday, Amazon, Facebook, Apple. Google actually had decent numbers. They caught a downgrade overnight, but they did well. They did well. If you guys notice what happened during the middle of the week, we ran into an area that stocks were kind of in a holding pattern. All these names, they were kind of stuck in channels. If you've been watching this broadcast, we've been trading pretty much everything this week. I mean, there's always one or two names. Obviously, Friday, there was a lot of really good value in beta. But if you look at Monday through Thursday, and you've been watching this broadcast, we started trading literally everything. I found myself trading a lot of small cap option order flow. I found myself trading $18 stocks, $30 stocks. Because again, at the end of the day, you can sit on the sidelines for one day. Maybe sit on the sidelines for a couple of hours. But eventually, if your stocks are not being thrown in the spotlight, you have to find ways to kind of generate alpha. The most amazing part was, in a weird way, this kind of opened up my eyes to a lot of different ways to kind of benefit from what we're seeing. Speculation money is going absolutely nuts again. All you need to do is look at names. Like a Kodak, for example, what we saw in the last couple of days was amazing. Even a name like SR and E, what we saw in the last couple of days, really, really big move. FLDM with a massive option flow, excuse me, a stock flow. A news that got complimented by an aggressive trigger on option flow just exploded the stock as well. So speculation money is there. And maybe the technology sector, the Amazon's of the world, the Facebook's of the world, the Apple's of the world has really subconsciously gave the green light for unfortunately new traders to chase again. And that's exactly what we saw here. So I'm very kind of actually proud of the idea that we didn't kind of shun our noses at what else was going on outside of the tech world, outside of the beta world and really took advantage of opportunities that had nothing to do with beta. And that's the whole point of trading pivots. And I've been saying this now for years. You don't need to trade Apple. You don't need to trade Facebook or Tesla or Amazon to trade pivots. The majority of the week, I would say 80% of my week, I did non-beta. I mean, I've been trading one or two beta names a day. Friday was pretty good. I traded Tesla, Apple, Tesla, Apple and Roka. Roka was a really good trade. But the majority of the week, I found myself trading like $10 stocks, $2 stocks, $30 stocks. Names I usually wouldn't kind of even look at. But now it really opened up my eyes. When I run into another stalemate of stocks in my focal point, I will completely incorporate what I saw this week into my game plan kind of going forward. So let's talk about it from the technical macro point of view. Again, from the Qs, they did what they did. They finally, we talked about that 261 level. Obviously, the catalyst was earnings from Thursday into Friday to give us a little bit more clarity of what's going to happen going forward. And as of right now, the bulls did their thing. They reclaimed obviously the 261 level. The only reason they stopped going higher, they hit the Bollinger Band here at 266. The key right now is to confirm this Bollinger Band. So any close over 266 on the Qs should challenge this two, let's just call it 270 all-time highs. If you look at the S&P, we'll just use the spies as a proxy. They're about to break out. Again, we've been stuck in this kind of long-gated channel here for a very, very long time. All the spies need to do now is reclaim 327.25 on a closing basis and we have the next leg up. The Dow has been definitely lagging. You can see it just from the charts. Definitely, definitely lagging. The markets have been pulled in. A lot of, again, the old world names versus the new economy names have been struggling. Obviously, Boeing is a major part of the Dow. So that had a really ugly effect on the performance, considering the Nasdaq was up almost 4% and the Dow was flat for the week. Again, you can see the disconnect there between old and new world economy. But the moral of the story is, again, Dow really needs to do, put in a little bit of work and really get above this, like, 26,800 level to start the next leg up. So it's going to be very, very important. You look at the Russell, the IWM. Again, has been underperforming compared to a lot of the other names. Obviously, you're going to have sprinkles of strength and more than others, but it still has a little bit of work to do to get out of this whole channel here. You look at the biotech space. Again, if you think about all these companies that are producing or trying to produce, or at least giving us the impression that they're trying to produce, I would say 200, 300 companies have come out with a PR. Maybe 500 companies have come out with a PR that they are working on something, testing, vaccine, whatever it is, but yada, yada, yada. Again, after a while, if everybody's doing it, somebody, it gets stale. It's like anything else, like if the majority of public, it's like the majority of traders are all looking at the same stock at the same time, that's called retail. And retail never beats the house. So if everybody's doing the same thing, the biotech industry eventually becomes stale, and as if we know if all the retail names, traders are all the same retail names at the same time, they usually have exactly the same results, and that's what exactly is happening in the biotech industry. Eventually, is somebody going to come out with a vaccine? Probably, right? But again, for the most part, if you look at the group, again, for the exception of one or two headlines that could come, then let's go roll back, they've been underperforming compared to a lot of different names. The one group that's been incredibly, incredibly strong, if you think about what's been happening with just everything, right? The whole China trade war, again, no group has more exposure to China than the semiconductors. And if you think where they are, and you're considering the leader of all semiconductors, you can make that argument, has been Intel, and obviously they had crappy earnings and they haven't literally seen the light. They haven't had a green candle in the last one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine sessions. You talk about two weeks in a row of constant selling. If you look at where the semiconductors are, thanks to the NVIDIAs of the world and the AMDs of the world and the LAM researchers of the world, it's pretty outstanding who is in the driver's seat for new leadership. As far as the week goes, very solid week, very, very solid week. I was very surprised based on how much good action we had outside of beta. You know, there's been, again, sprinkled in here and there, decent trades Monday through Thursday. Friday, obviously, was a very, very aggressive day. And what I liked about this week was we literally had something for everybody. We had the small cap names, and I'll only, only trade them via option flow. And again, the main point there is it's not like a stock is just getting option flow. What I'm looking for is, let's just say for example, like SRNE, I'll give you a perfect example, SRNE. So SRNE, I bought this thing at $8.30 on Thursday. Unfortunately, I sold my last piece, $8.69 after the close. But for me, I was okay with that. It's not really something I trade. But just to kind of illustrate the point of what option flow I'm looking for, I am looking for out-of-the-money calls. Okay? Obviously, the closer exploration, near-term exploration, the better. But I'm looking for repeat, repeat sweeps coming in in that name over and over again. And for example, SRNE, when the stock was like $8.20, $8.25, we just saw, I'm talking about one after another, for about 15 minutes straight, they were coming in for the January 10 calls, like one after another, after another, and after another. And once it confirmed technically, and that's kind of like the whole point of technical analysis, it really, really started to go. Again, did I think it was going to go to $10? Absolutely not. Did I think it was going to go to $11? Well, now, absolutely not. I would have held a runner. But that's what I'm looking for. And we've been catching at least one name a day. There's been FLDM, just a perfect example. FLDM came out with, you know, came out some sort of news yesterday, and you can see by the charts. If you look at my Twitter account, you'll see it. You know, it came out some news, right? The initial pop was like this $6.20, and they sold it off. And then once that buyer came in for the August 750 calls, it was just an explosion, just an absolute explosion. So the key ingredient, this is what I'm looking for now every single day, is obviously deep out of the money calls. Near term expiration, obviously, is the more preferential of all these sweeps, and obviously multiple sweeps in a very, very short period of time. And that's usually going to produce really, really good results. Other than that, going into this week, I am very bullish on certain names. Certain names don't look great. But again, we're taking it day by day. We're not trying to reinvent the wheel. We're just trying to gauge each day's value based on our previous night's research, and hopefully that turns into something good. So let's talk about Friday's session very, very quickly. Very strong day. Strong, strong day indeed. I said, I said congratulations while you guys are still long. SR and E, I sold mine last night at 8.69. Oh my God, SR and E. SR and E's 9.25 pre-market. I was like, oh, that sucks. But when I went downstairs, it came back up. SR and E was at 10. So I was like, that's the point. I got really, really kind of peeved. But again, it's not really what I do. That's not really my focus point. So I was pretty happy with the trade. But anyway, make a long story short. 2050, we talked about that level. 2050 was a very, very, 250, 20 was a very, very important level for Facebook. Just because it was the daily confirmation. So 250, 20 pre-market, that was the area. So here it is right here, this whole 2050 area. And once it got above it, it just really absolutely exploded. The first move was like $5. Really, really aggressive move on Facebook. So that was really good. Google and I said, in case it shakes off morning weakness, obviously it never got to the 1542, 43 level. Guys, keep an eye on this little stock here. Not a little bit. TIGR, look at this 550 level for this week. Just keep an eye on it. I kind of like this setup here. It never confirmed here. The high of the day here was 548. I liked any close above this 550 level. Maybe this thing sets it off. So if all you guys are trading the smaller cap names, keep an eye on that for this week. Tesla, Tesla obviously never got to the 535 level. We'll talk about probably the most aggressive trade of the day. Tesla to the downside in a few minutes. WKHS never came close to this 750 level. Square, I still like. Just failed that 132 level. I think that 13290 was the high. So we're still watching that 132 break for Square into next week. Never got there. This was definitely my biggest move. At least my better trades of the day. My earlier move in Tesla, but again, Roku, I'm just trading so much more size than Tesla, but really good trade here. 154, 50, 155 needs to build. Exploded, absolutely exploded. So here is the area we were watching. Here's a 60 minute channel. This whole 154, 50 level and exploded. Really, really exploded. We traded up to 158 on one candle. Just great move. I was very, very happy with that move. Facebook again, 320 price target exploded. EA pre-market, it put in a high of 140, 250. Just never gave a second entry. Netflix did the same thing. Went to 95. Did it go to 95? Did it fail 95? Because I didn't trade it. Nope, didn't take on 95. I apologize, never got there. Never got there. That's the reason why I never traded it. Roku explosion. Yeah, so this was the big number. We've been talking about the downside support on Tesla for a week. So we knew this number. This is going to be a big number here. 114, 169, 114, 168 daily support that builds below can flush. I said there was actually another area here. This is where I got short. I actually got short at 1477. There was a sneaky area there. And the reason why I say experienced traders, because again, we know that the macro area held several times 1469. So I got short 1468 and it got really hit. That first move went down to 1455. My lowest cover was 1458. So it was a great move. Really, really great move. And here's why. Again, here's why. Let me just show you here. So here was macro. I just want to show you macro first. So macro was right here. Everybody see this, right? 1469, 1469. That was the macro rising support. So once it took out that 1469, it just got murdered. I said there was a shot. It could get down to 1547, 1532, right? So it got really, it got really killed. The reason why I said 1432, because that was the rising support of 1430. And again, not to be a little adolescent, but again, bang, okay. I'm allowed to be adolescent once in a while. Again, best stock ever. Obviously, a stock I'd really, really destroyed. NIO, right? NIO. I like these EV names, right? I kind of like them short this week. And maybe they got pulled because of Tesla. Maybe they didn't. But whatever the case may be, NIO buyers coming in for the $12, I forgot to put $12, but for the $12 September, excuse me, for the September 9, puts any close under $12 is bearish. And NIO closed below $12. I like this confirmation, guys. Any confirmation, any build below this channel here, it has a lot of room. It has another $1 down. So I like NIO. This thing confirms Friday's channel. This thing's going lower. So I definitely want to keep an eye on that. Overstock is thin stock. And it came in about $1 or so, but very, very thin stock. If it builds below, it can flush $73.30, $73. So it's a very thin stock. So it took out the $73.30, traded down to $72.25, and then big rebound. So I try to stay away from the thinner names. It's a very strong stock, very, very strong stock indeed. One note on Tesla. I like Tesla short this week, but there's a but. And I want to kind of explain that but really, really quickly. So Tesla finally lost support. And if it loses this channel right here, if it starts losing this channel here, you could see a test of last week's low of $13.65. The only thing that I'm going to say about that is, in my opinion, there's been a lot of steam. There's a lot of steam behind the chatter that Tesla will be added to the S&P 500. It's starting to get a lot of momentum. At first it started as chatter, and now you see Bloomberg running with it. You see Twitter talking about it all over the place. You see CNBC constantly talking about it. You see a lot of analysts talking about it. So the last thing you want to do is get short. As much as everybody we talk about technical analysis first, the last thing you want to be short overnight when this news comes out. And if it does come out, they're going to run this thing up 150 points. Intraday is a whole different story. If it starts confirming this bottom channel, this whole bottom channel, yes, there will be a definitely sell bias. But again, just my piece of advice, if you are sell bias in Tesla, try to stick with the Intraday cycles. There's so much range in this name that you don't need that what if worst case scenario to happen overnight. So in my opinion, if you're going to trade Tesla this week and you are sell bias, try to hold it to the Intraday intervals, because again, the last thing you want to do is have a good trade, be up 10, 15 points in the trade. Some news comes out, and the next thing you know, you're down 200 points. That's an account killer. That's not really a great way to kind of navigate assuming you already know this is already on the table. So if you know the danger is on the table, at least limit your exposure. If you are trading Intraday, please use stops, because if this news comes out Intraday, you're going to get murdered as well. So be very, very prudent if you are trading Tesla to the downside. Other than that, life is good. We're all alive. We're all healthy. And if you're watching this broadcast, that means you are alive. That means it's one day, an extra day that the good Lord has blessed you with. So we are blessed. So as much as we are going through a lot of crappy times and unusual times in our lives, the most important part is health, happiness, and family. Guys, God bless. I love you all. And with God's help, I'll see you all Monday. Take care. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. You're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. Want daily trade ideas directly from Dan? Straight off his personal watch list? Unlock our free PS60 vault, get nightly updates on Pivot Opportunities we're watching for the next day's session. Click the link in the description to get started today.