 Week number four is Daily Fantasy Football Slate. It's such an interesting one because there are some good games to stack on this slate, but a lot of the quarterbacks in those good games have question marks, whether it be volume, whether it be their team's willingness to throw the football, whether it be matchup. There are some interesting things to consider across this slate. What we're going to do for today is break down those quarterbacks, break down those games, but also take a couple of process-based looks at how we should play things, especially early on in the year for Daily Fantasy Football getting you set to win some money on Sunday. Welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire. That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and numberfire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com. Joined here as always by Brandon Gedula. He is the managing editor for numberfire.com. Brandon, we are on to week number four. How are you doing today? I'm good, but this week is kind of, it's been problematic for me, I think. We do player picks at the end of this podcast. It's not even that many. It's two quarterbacks, two tight ends, three running backs, and receivers. And I took over an hour to figure out who to recommend. And it's not even because I'm so, like, it's not that I think people are going to just be locked into my loves. It's just, I don't, it's so hard for me to whittle it down to the top few guys, specifically a quarterback, like you said. So that's kind of where I'm at with this slate. And I hope discussing it with you helps me learn some things. Well, I'm in the same spot. So I don't think I'll actually be able to help you too much there. But sometimes just like talking through it, you're like, okay, yeah. And the more and more and more, we kind of go back and forth. It's like, I'm going to be, I'm going to feel like a big dummy if I don't play a lot of Kyler. Yeah, $300. Yeah. And I think that's probably where I'll wind up. But I think that there are a lot of things to consider here, especially because like, we don't know, it's hard enough to predict defensive strength in general. Can we predict after three weeks? It's hard enough to know how pass Evia team will be in neutral scripts, stuff like that. Like, there are a lot of unknown still, despite the fact we have data from across three weeks already. So I think there's a lot to juggle for today. We'll break down injuries, games we want to stack, our top plays each position and again, some process based stuff. They're at the podcast for today. But first, a quick reminder, we do have a listener league. Once again, you can find that and enter that by going to fandual.com slash league slash listener league again, fandual.com slash league slash listener league. That link will be the URL. We're the same each week. So I think they're doing it every Monday, putting the contest up. So fandual.com slash league slash listener league to get entered for the week for listener league, $5 entry, three entries max. There is no rake. Fandual very likely to lose money on this contest. So if you want a smart way to play DFS, check out the listener league, fandual.com slash league slash listener league for that. Hey, football fans, fandual is giving you the chance to bet on week four of the NFL season. All you got to do is go to fandual sportsbook and download the fandual sportsbook app, place a three plus legs, same game, Parley on any NFL week four game. If your bet loses, get a refund and site credit. Max refund is $10 bet on week for the NFL with fandual by heading over to fandual sportsbook today and placing a risk-free same game Parley must be 21 plus in present Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, or West Virginia refund issued is non the throttle site credit that expires in seven days. Max refund $10 restricts his apply. See full terms at sportsbook.fandual.com. Same game, Parley available from multiple sports in all states on mobile and web gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or visit fandual.com slash RG in Indiana, 1-809 with it for confidential help in Michigan, 1-800-270-7117 in Tennessee call the red line at 1-800-899-789 in West Virginia, 1-800-gambler.net, or in Arizona call 1-800 next step or text next step to 533-42. Let's take a look at the key injuries impacting this week for NFL DFS main. Slade starting off with running back. Dalvin Cook got in a limited practice on Wednesday. Sounds like he is anticipating he'll return this week. So do you worry at all about Dalvin off the injury or is it back to status quo for him? I would think status quo or enough of status quo. Running back this week is I mean we have I think situations we got a monitor with some other running backs but if Dalvin's a full go or you know is practicing in full by Friday then absolutely if he's still a bit limited I think I think he'd still be a top tier play because we don't really see Dalvin play and be limited unless it's like a blowout and then they don't play him a lot in the fourth. So I wouldn't be that concerned. What about you? I'm not either and I think that like Madison played well last weekend was really good but also like you look at his success rate numbers and it wasn't like a oh like we got to keep using this guy type thing and Mike Zimmer said a lot of times Dalvin Cook is the reason this offense works. So I think that if he's in there he will be playing well. I would like to see him remove from the injury port on Friday that give me a pretty big boost confidence like I would still feel good if we get like the the 1145 p.m. Saturday shifty bomb like hey Dalvin Cook's good to go. I still feel good then but I feel a lot better if he's not on the injury port on Friday. Are the running back injury here as Daryl Henderson got in a limited practice Wednesday sounds like he will be able to play this week. If he doesn't we talked about this on Monday we would like Sony Michelle at $5,800. So if there's no Daryl Henderson be in on Sony Michelle but some Henderson does play. He had a good role the first two weeks but he got hurt and that was kind of the concern they seem to have with Henderson was that he can't carry a full load and stay healthy. So would you trust him? Would you trust Michelle or just avoid this backfield entirely if Henderson goes? So I almost did the same thing just spoiler alert in my player picks I have either Vikings running back like whoever if Dalv plays it's Dalv if not it's Madison. I almost did that with the Rams and then I realized that I don't feel nearly the same which is I get it like I don't feel the same about Daryl Henderson's role with Dalvin Cook's but the thing for me is Sony Michelle didn't play like he did not play basically at all when Henderson was healthy. So that's not a huge vote of confidence for his role once Henderson returns but again so like I'm not gonna play Sony Michelle if Henderson plays because I think he earned more work because of how little he played before the injury but also I'm not going to presume that Henderson just goes back to the 90% snap rate so I might if Henderson plays I might not play either of them. I won't play either if he plays I think that we've got other options that running back it's not a great week for running back this week kind of like last week where it is kind of thin but like there are enough guys I feel good about where I would just cross them off so if Henderson goes I'm avoiding that backfield if not let's go Sony Michelle. Andy Dalton got in a limited practice on Wednesday due to a knee issue. Justin Fields was a full practice with a hand issue we don't know yet who will play. Matt Nagy left the door for Nick Foles to start sounds like he's backtracked on that sense so how are you viewing the Bears offense if Field starts versus if it's Dalton? Well I don't have any interest if you have three or two and a half quarterbacks you don't have one although I guess Fields might be a half quarterback right now too Dalton's probably like three fourths of a quarter so I don't know I don't know what the math is there but they don't really have one quarterback so I have like no interest in that offense but you and I went back and forth for a while on David Montgomery on Monday's podcast so I want to ask you where you are with him now that we kind of know that there's not a whole lot of certainty at quarterback here. I mean that that wasn't the main fact the main factor was good workload bad defense I would say if we're looking in that range he's behind Aaron Jones Antonio Gibson Andy Andre Swift I love Nick Scheven game stacks so like I might not wind up getting there I still think that it's like a justifiable place to go um I know we argued like 16 minutes just for me to say like but you you set his baseline initially at 25 and then you I was joking it was a joke that was if that was you were pretty adamant if I was just a joke but I mean it wasn't do you think I actually thought he had 25 points like is that is that serious I mean with the way that you so I think that Montgomery is is a person to consider the problem is he's a person of interest yeah person of interest the problem is I have more interest in guys around him so I would need to be pretty spread out at running back to get there and I don't think I want to do that so I still think that he's justifiable I just you know um and I can't get to to Mooney I can't get to Robinson with the questions that quarterback right now I think it's kind of Montgomery or bust on the bear side of things yeah I mean we got Swift it's 7700 that's a high salary um but they want to get him the ball more and more we've seen him get roles already been good yeah like for DFS uh Aaron Jones you and I both like Antonio Gibson I would both like I like Zeke um at 7000 I hate the matchup for sake one so I'm probably not going to get a whole lot of Montgomery myself yeah um I maybe I'll come around to it but I think like even that same game switch is better so it's one of those where we know we're not we're not going to you're going to snack that game I was good I was I want to make clear that was a joke who who even it'd be Montgomery and Hawkinson I guess would be Montgomery and Swift oh yeah well the running back running back stack is is that works a little abnormal I don't care it works it pops up the perfect lineup so who cares yeah open your mind open your mind close mine at Brandon how dare you uh Julio Jones and AJ Brown uh both missed practice on Wednesday for the Titans I think Brown's going to miss Julio limited in the second half last week due to injury they were pretty coy about it but it sounds like he actually was hurt so let's assume that Julio plays which might not happen uh while Brown sits actually let's talk about both scenarios like if Julio sits too how are you in the Titans offense against the Jets based on the health of their receivers uh big downgrade massive downgrade um I'll say this probably for the I'll try to say this for the last time of the season but uh this is not NBA DFS uh guys are not going to get those same opportunities uh we saw Tennessee's pass rate go down pretty drastically last week um the efficiency is going to be worse that hurts Derek Henry from a touchdown expectation standpoint you might think they're going to give the ball to Derek Henry 40 times and they might but they might have like minimal red zone trips as well so that's a little bit hard uh so to want to get to now I'm not gonna I'm not talking myself out of Derek Henry entirely no um this is a new Brandon uh he is not going to uh advocate fading Derek Henry outright but there is a real opportunity where he just doesn't score again and is just okay yeah and I think that that's why although we're not like looking to be off of Derek Henry it's okay to be underweight on him in tournaments um because I'm assuming people are just going to go there because of the Jets matchup I'm looking at projected roster rates right now and I don't think they're accurate not going to say the site because I don't want to put them on blast um but Derek Henry is very low so I don't think that'll stick um I'm just going to close that tab I would just think like doesn't it make sense that people would say well if they don't have AG Brown or Holia they're just going to lean on Derek Henry yeah which is which is true which is true but that's not necessarily he's a touchdown dependent player not as much as he has been previously because he's averaged 152.7 yards in scrunch per game so that's that's like 15 fan dual points with no receptions and no touchdowns which is stupid so he's not as touchdown dependent as he used to be but you still want Tudys for $10,200 so I would say like if you give me a single entry lineup and that's the one I'm playing him he's probably not in there and I think that's okay like I'm I'm gonna use him but I don't think I need him for single entry yeah um what if Julio plays would you go to him or no I just I mean he was kind of he was limited yeah last week um I think we have first of all it's just a game that I don't have a lot of interest in and by a lot I mean no interest like they're gonna beat the Jets pretty well sorry yeah I need to make clear again if it really doesn't come across I'm joking and yeah well I mean it's believable enough but do they really need to run out Julio uh in week four when he's already injured against the Jets to win probably not and his salary is 6,700 that's high enough where you can't really afford like a four point game um okay let me see here two five I'm gonna see if there's don't bet the Jets money line um just just I knew you were cooking up something no it's not good don't do it um I did want to check though at least don't yeah there's no value it's bad no I don't think I could I don't care who they're playing they could be playing uh the was it the Washington generals is that team that the club trotters always play oh man yeah come on it's not like that that's a pretty it's the generals I think they're from Washington but it's basketball I don't know I wish I did but exhibition basketball but uh yeah even against the generals I don't know but I do need these aqueous and dynasty chairs to step up though so let's let's get it going bud let's let's step up this week Corridor's revenge game let's go uh Steelers could have Deontay Johnson back this week he was limited in Wednesday's practice Juju Smith Schuster is day to day with a rib injury so it sounds like he may be able to go as well so possibly get both guys here for this game how does it impact your view of Najee Harris how does it impact your view of Aaron Joe etc etc in this game um I have had a I I didn't really even so I don't want to say this like don't make me sound like I'm unprepared but I didn't really get to this game um in terms of like detailed notes because I virtually sort by over under and kind of go from there this game didn't jump out from that standpoint um that's probably telling me a lot now I'm still okay with Aaron Jones for sure I don't know if I'm gonna get to Najee Harris at the that elevated salary coming off the massive target game I don't anticipate that he will get 19 targets again and he just hasn't done a whole lot with those opportunities so we're gonna need to see an an insane reversal of his efficiency for that volume to like destroy us I think he's his rushing success rates like horrifyingly low 15% it's so bad it's half of the second lowest qualified running back that's so bad yeah so like we're banking on big touchdown regression from him which is possible yeah but the yardage efficiency is not really there to make the workload that scary would having Deontay and Juju make you more into the Green Bay passing game like would you feel okay about like Devontay Adams there or yeah I think so um Adams is someone that's kind of sneaking up on me here not that he's sneaking up on anyone but there are a ton of good receivers this week and there are and there are a lot of good games so it's like hey I don't want to forget about Devontay because he could leave this slate and fantasy points that's not shocking but I'm just worried yeah enough about the Steelers here where I'm like I'm probably not gonna talk myself into into that I might be more of even like a Stefan Diggs where I talk myself into a game that I don't like so much yeah um Green Bay projected 15th in offensive efficiency for me Pittsburgh 20th that's not as bad as it may seem but it's still not an ideal game and there are better options for sure uh a lot of Mitchell got in a limit or Eli Mitchell got in a limited practice on Wednesday which means he could return this week off his shoulder injury Trace Sermon didn't play all that well on Sunday night does that make you tempted to take a swipe at Mitchell and a stackable game if he's able to return or no um it it could his salary is only 5600 um I would say that he's game scale game stack dependent um where I'm not really gonna play Eli Mitchell and one offs I don't think um um so it's yeah it's probably one of those where I just kind of build lineups and say you know what Seattle San Francisco they're gonna put up like 60 combined points and it's okay if Eli Mitchell's in there and doesn't totally erupt because it's just that game gate uh that game environment kind of hits at 5600 that's a little bit more justifiable I know you and I are always hard on value backs making and making sure that they can actually reach a high ceiling it's a little bit different if it's kind of at least stacked within a full game where I'm kind of uh getting the benefits of the other guys who actually go off the higher salary guys but I would also say that I think 49ers backs have the ability to do that like the ability to have the 122 yeah um so especially against the Seattle defense I think that's pretty doable so if he's like a full practice on Friday roofing the injury port I would I would have some I think that that's justifiable um given how much you like that game would you play him kind of outside of stacks like without any I wouldn't play him without mini stacks like if I use him I want DK Metcalf or Tara Lockett in there um yeah that's where I'd view it Freddie Swain it's like that that magic Johnson gift I'm not going to be there not going to be there man uh both Darius Slayton and still in shepherd mispractice Wednesday due to hamstring injuries opens up volume for the Giants but they're also in a terrible game with the Saints could lower their offense their offensive efficiency are you crossing off the Giants offense this week I think so the only one I'm really considering is Seyquan the salary is still too low for the workload but the matchup is not ideal the just end the overall game environment not particularly good although it is in a dome which is something I'll talk about but love a good dome uh but Zeke's in a dome Antonio Gibson's in a dome we've got guys around there I mean Dalv yeah so no Chuba's in a dome I think that we've got better options to this week I think that that offense could just collapse uh so oh well we had our good one to say quan we'll go back eventually but not this is not the place to do so I don't think I think the good news is that he's probably not going to have a big game here yeah yes we can get him at lower roster rates later on that and also his salary shouldn't spike I hope I hope because I'd like to go back I just don't want to go back in this game okay so that's the injury section for right now let's talk about what the bookmakers are saying about this slate the highest total on this slate is in Los Angeles for the Rams versus the Cardinals total is 54 and a half of this game it was 55 down a half a point the spread opened at the Rams minus six but it got bet up uh bet down for to the being the Rams minus four and a half so the public thinks this game will be close and that's what we won't want for stacking so do you see any paths to failure for this game or are we good to just load up and go go nuts here um I have this one fourth in average pace uh with like between 20 and 80 win probability third and pass rate and those same uh constraints so that's awesome I think the path to this one not going off is it's still a it's still a divisional game um that's always a little bit more scary than otherwise even if it's the first time around second time around's way scarier um and I think the the real path for this one to bust not from like a an overunderstand point it's kind of from a market share standpoint yeah because we've got Kyler who we want to play the Arizona running backs I don't have any interest in the market share the receiving market shares for Arizona are so balanced that it's hard even to talk myself into a ton of Deondre Hopkins um everyone's just basically floating between like an 11 and an 18 percent target share in this offense that's really hard so uh and then for the Rams the running backs might kind of cancel each other out and Cooper Cup might eventually not score twice Robert Woods is kind of dust so like this game could easily go over and kind of have minimal huge fantasy impact if nobody like if that doesn't get concentrated within this game it was really upsetting when I realized my favorite stacking partner for Kyler might be AJ Green like it's so I don't want that no one wants that but like no I mean Christian Kirk will probably see a lot of Jaylen Ramsey since he's basically like a slot corner right now uh Hopkins is banged up not getting his usual market shares Rondale more I think we'll get an increase in routes run this week due to the potential script here like last week was not the script for Rondale I know they got down a bit in that game but like that was not the spot for him so like the best stacking partner might be AJ Green which is pretty crazy um and then you can do run it back with Cooper Cup like if you do Kyler AJ Green Cooper Cup you're fine like you can make that work from a salary perspective um but like I think that is a legitimate concern about trying to find the optimal way to stack it because there are at least like concerns with every guy in Arizona side except for Kyler yeah I mean like I'm starting to kind of look at games with teams like where market shares aren't fantastic and just be like uh oh this game's scoring a lot of points but I don't feel like there was anyone that I even needed to have which kind of is scary because we would just want to target high total games but high total games with uh diversified offenses can kind of bust even if they go over um like that's kind of where I am with this game so it's definitely not my favorite to stack yeah um and with Cup salary being what it is we would need some need some value to bring it back with which we have available to us with it Arizona but like he eventually he's just not gonna score or not score twice right and at 8600 if he gives us like 15 that's so I think Higbee I think Higbee's still in play given his salary given like he's not he's not the best role but like it's a for a tight end it's a fine roll yeah but anyone who's I mean I don't know about the Ramside I don't want to pick them I'm okay picking Arizona one thing I would say though is that if we get Deandre Hopkins in a full practice on Friday at $7600 I can be more okay with his market share concerns because he's been banged up the past two games so yeah if we get a full practice from Deandre Hopkins my like optimal stack here will probably be Kyler, Nuke, Higbee and that that I think can work yeah and so it's it's a matter of okay on paper what we have through three games says Deandre Hopkins not an amazing play yeah if we say he's healthy and he becomes Nuke and gets that 25 even but like maybe 28 20 30 percent target share that's kind of when you're buying low yeah do they need the my fear is he's not 100% even if he gets in a full practice he's not because it doesn't qualify to me as 100% healthy um do they need to give him a 30% target share if they have AJ Green somehow relevant again I don't think they need to give him a 30% I I think that it would be better than what it's been though and like sure pay off at his salaries so like I wouldn't feel like oh I'm going to Deandre Hopkins in cash he did run 33 routes last week so he was pretty full in the game itself he said do a whole lot so and that but that goes back to now he might play a ton which he has been playing a lot he's run 95 percent of routes this year uh but if he's not getting the volume it's the only thing that would really change is his health yeah so if he's still but again it's weak removed I I think that like very likely when I'm filling in my Kyler stacks on Sunday I will be skewing towards Hopkins once again despite the really really disappointing yeah usage so far the total for the Browns versus Vikings has come down from the open but I think it still sets up well for DFS uh total 51 and a half open to 52 and a half Browns are two and a half point favorites there's been a lot of movement on uh this number it was Browns minus one and a half then minus two and a half then minus two no back to two and a half so a lot of action on this game it seems like I love this game there are concerns given that both teams kind of want to run but that was also the case for seattle minnesota last week and I think just the defense in minnesota is conducive to shootouts no offense conducive to shootouts too I don't think I want to use either quarterback here but I really like this game from a stacking perspective are you as high in this game as I am um I'm fairly high on it for sure uh mostly the minnesota side although I don't think I'll play Kirk Cousins so that's kind of a tough sell there but obviously we talked about Dalvin and Madison already uh Justin Jefferson or Adam Thielen totally fine um and then on the way back it's Odell Beckham right now uh his workload's amazing had 51 percent of the team's area it's last week I would be more open to Baker than I would be to Kirk Cousins I think um even though the Cousins is at home and I never know what to do with the running backs for for Cleveland but Kareem Hunt did get a kind of a bump in receiving without Jarvis Landry which is noteworthy yeah I think that that is like if you want to justify Hunt that could be the angle I would say that Nick Chubb works for game stacks like I think if I'm ranking out bring back options it's Odell one chub two and I think it's pretty comfortably chub two despite the fact he gets bad usage he's still averaging 94.3 yards of scrimmage per game which is one two four it's fifth on the main slate it's fifth on the main slate behind Antonio Gibson uh Deandre Swift uh Derek Henry and Dalvin Cook and each guy's most relevant sample so I think that he works he's got 35 percent of the red zone chances so like it's not a good role but again as we discussed with the live Mitchell there are paths to him paying off because he's so freaking good and it's such a good scheme so I think chubb works to bring backs after Odell I think that again I'm probably not going to go to either quarterback here but I feel good about the non-quarterbacks really good about the non-quarterbacks in this game yeah um I don't know if we should ever bring up our bet because it involves one of the quarterbacks in this game okay so I was on slack last night I was trying to do like my player picks Brandon sends me a screenshot with Taylor bleeping Heineke as his second love at quarterback and I threatened to quit and what was your rash I know you came off of what was the rationale here um he hasn't been that that horrible uh once you adjust for uh opponents it's a great game situation it's the fastest game of the week it's in a dome it's against Atlanta he has an obvious stack candidate or two with uh with Terry McClaren and Logan Thomas he can run the ball a little bit and Baker Baker runs just as much as Taylor does sure but this was this wasn't initially a Heineke versus Baker thing I know it was I think Taylor Heineke's justifiable this week at 7400 and I could kind of nitpick almost every other high salary quarterback to the point where I wasn't in love with many of them and that's why I thought maybe he was in play no no it's not so our bet is are you going to take this bet sure I'll take it okay I have Baker Mayfield you have Taylor Heineke I'm not using Baker for DFS right but I rather using than Heineke I'd like Hunter Renfros had a fine role this year but my my previous like question was would you rather get hit by a bus or use Hunter Renfro and DFS I think that might be Heineke actually it's probably Daniel Jones more than I know he runs now but like I like I think that the range the ranges of outcomes on Heineke and Mayfield for me are virtually identical except one of them is good at football is is is Baker Mayfield actually good at football yes okay as you will see on Sunday when he throws his fifth touchdown to Odell you'll see that Baker's great just I'm I don't I don't I can't justify thinking about Heineke when I could pay $400 more to get to Dak Prescott don't care about the matchup Russ is $400 more fine matchup there 300 what 300 oh Heineke's 74 I thought he's 73 oh my goodness it's even worse um like Matthew Stafford is $400 more like oh yeah I know that's that's how that's how salaries break out on Fandle but brutal you give me a quarterback in that kind of game environment it's appealing whenever other guys have some question marks no no uh this is better though than our case Kenan versus Josh Allen that when Josh Allen is a rookie so at least we've got that going for us uh because Baker's actually good one of those quarterbacks is actually good which was not the case for that time um anything else in this game do you have a reference between the the Vikings guys like I think Dalvin is one if he's healthy yeah and then I put Justin Jefferson too because I'm just gonna keep beating my head against the wall yeah I was gonna say the same thing uh Jefferson over Thielen because I'm a moron 26 target share for Jefferson compared 22 percent for Thielen downfield work 44 percent for Jefferson versus 22 percent for Thielen Jefferson actually has as many red zone targets as Thielen does she hasn't converted like I like okay so Thielen has had like 16 touchdowns this year let me read you his Fandle point totals despite all the touchdowns 25.7 that hurts 12.9 and 14 he has failed to eclipse 15 Fandle points twice despite scoring touchdowns I don't feel like he can burn me unless he gets two touchdowns which I mean he could which he could yeah for sure but yeah um I mean at this rate like no I can't even make that comparison because cups rolls way better yeah I mean like if you're looking in that salary range Thielen is 200 dollars less in DK in that cap just look at those two dudes and tell me which one you'd rather use at the same salary a marie cooper 76 rather than marie cooper CD lamb isn't that range so I'm not using Thielen I know it's gonna burn me like I I go in knowing he's gonna catch touchdowns and make me tilt into oblivion but even when he scores it doesn't matter as much because the yard is so bad so yeah we'll see we'll just catch a touchdown once Justin Jefferson make us make us proud we also have a tight spread on a high total for the seahawks and the 49ers seahawks favored by three or sorry the 49ers favored by three total at 52 the seahawks defense absolute nightmare the 49ers should be able to move the ball here but the seahawks offense has had super low play volume all year which has kept us from getting complete eruptions they've been good but they've not been great due to play volume so where does this game rank for you in terms of stacking um I haven't ranked out on my games yet but this one is ninth in pace and tenth in pass rate on plays where pre snap win probability was 20 to 80 percent so that's not great that's kind of the the lone blemish I have though um I mean well that I get another slight concern I have is just that Russell Wilson has on the ball a ton he's running 3.7 times per game for 10.7 yards um so he's like you and I are very strongly prioritizing running quarterbacks um Russ doesn't quite I mean kind of fits that but not really so for me with Russ it feels like the way that he goes off is when he gets to that fourth touchdown or that third touchdown with like 350 passing yards but I mean I'm just never surprised if he goes I mean I just feel like you copy and paste like 280 yards and two and a half touchdowns for Russ with that range of you know being able to reach four touchdowns but I just I don't know like I still like him a lot but yeah if I if I can't love him entirely then I'm lower on these games because I'm definitely not playing quarterbacks on the other side of this one I think the crazy thing about the Seahawks offense they've had those like they've had one bad half in each game so far but Russ still has 0.33 passing that expected points per drop back which is a very good number yeah so like if they can put a full game together he could be at like 0.50 in which case like you're cooking even on lower volume so I think it's similar to Deandre Hopkins where we haven't seen it yet but I think that that upside is still in there and so I'm okay going to Russ and being pretty high on him and as a result that I think this is a good game for sacking and it might be my favorite because I like Russ so to me you get Russ pair him with either Locker or Metcalf favoring Metcalf me personally and then you bring it back with Debo bring it back with I think I Eucson play this week and I think the kiddles in play he's banged up right now but that's fine I think that because there's a quarterback I like it's a game I like there are logical stacking partners this game I would say well I like the Vikings Browns one more but I just don't have a quarterback there so I like that game more for stacking but this is number two and it has a quarterback in it that I do like I think I probably go with see like this is the issue and this is why I ended up on Heineken as you can find issues with all of these games yeah for like Kansas City Philly it's who do we bring back with the Eagles with okay I have Washington Atlanta as like a route I have like this rudimentary just sort of game stack score that's actually number one because of the pace and pass rate and stuff we obviously are you're not going to play either quarterback I might play only one you couldn't pay me to play Matt Ryan right now so Matt Ryan probably going to return to his old form so I think I think Cleveland Minnesota like again I just like I can nitpick all these games so it's really hard for me to rank them yeah it's not a week like last week where I felt like really going okay this game is the best one on the board stuff like that yeah and so that's why I think the more and more I talk about this late because this is this why it took me so long to narrow down my loves the more I talk about it the more I'm realizing I'm and I say this with golf a lot like whenever I don't have a strong preference or it's like a major and we have all these options I'm just going to kind of wait and see yeah and then whoever's getting overlooked I'll just go there because why not yeah I don't need to be stubborn and force myself to prioritize prioritize anyone who I don't really want to prioritize I'll just try to see who's going to be less popular yeah I think that can work and I think that this might be a week to do that so I think that is a fair way to view things okay let's take a look at some trends we are focusing on for this week this is not like a oh the Steelers play well against Packers I think it's more so like process based stuff or usage based stuff trends is a very bad connotation embeddings that's why I'm clarifying it's it's process based stuff in terms of usage in terms of stuff that that works and does not so you are looking at the fantasy production in dome games I love domes and there are some games with some potential rain this week so I love domes even more what did you see when you went back to the data here yeah we're and we're going to start getting worse weather more wind actually I don't know if it gets windier throughout the season but it feels like it does more wind more rain just worse like colder conditions and then sometimes we just have dome games where it's nice and controlled we have five games this week on the main slate in a dome or a game with a retractable roof dome games are the giants and saints which I don't think either of us are really on despite the dome angle here the browns and vikings the cardinals and rams and then games with retractable roofs Washington in the falcons and then the panthers and cowboys it's not really a retractable roof for the falcons game it's more of like a kaleidoscope that kind of opens sometimes um roof is generous I just went off of uh I think it's a it's a weird looking thing man um now it looks like a butt from the sky I'm just we'll say it we'll say what was left unsaid previously it looks like a butt okay you're welcome three things to keep in mind as I talk about some data I'm looking at performance relative to number fires projections in the past number fires projections have been long term really good they're off by about point two points since 2018 on a player level basis they're just very good long term so uh go number fire um despite that 42 of players have gone over their projection which I think is explained most easily by you can be projected for partial touchdowns you cannot square a partial touchdown so that's going to come into play a lot and three I'm going to be looking at performance against those projections which does account for players who are good going into good environments they will be projected for more points this is not just based on uh like it's it accounts for some context there so I like this uh approach now if you look at quarterback ones projected in a game from 2018 to 2020 any quarterback ones in terms of highest projected quarterback highest projected quarterback for their team based on number fires pregame projections uh they went over their projection 47 percent of the time in outdoor games it's 45 percent in indoor games it's 51 percent passers underperformed projections by point six points on average outdoors and overperformed by point three points indoors that's small but it's significant especially with generally higher projections in uh dome games just which are generally higher totaled have better overall uh expectations quarterbacks were 32 likely to have a 300-yard passing game indoors versus 24 outdoors they're also 52 likely to go over their yardage total projections indoors compared to 44 outdoors so even with that context quarterbacks which drive basically games entirely they perform really well in dome games that they just dominate how fantasy points get accrued we talked about it we talked about this with the the titans and if they're not moving the ball Derek Henry is not going to have as many scoring chances if quarterbacks are moving the ball players have better scoring chances running backs were basically unchanged so not a whole lot there despite the fact that we should expect better scoring odds in these games but wide receiver ones again guys projected for the most fantasy points on their teams average 12.8 fantasy points indoors uh fandal points to half ppr 12.8 indoors 11.3 outdoors which is a one and a half point difference that's pretty significant especially with uh the the higher projections indoors at 12.9 on average um and 11.9 outdoors um they basically are just more likely to go get to that 100 yard uh arbitrary cutoff at 28 percent indoors and 18 percent outdoors that does trickle down a little bit more to wide receiver twos and threes but again we see better yardage in these games um at least compared to expectations um so honestly this is not groundbreaking but it's important to keep in mind especially in a week where i'm sitting here looking at like all these games i kind of like some of them kind of can't figure out that's another reason why i thought taylor heinecky was more in play just because of a potentially controlled environment for some of these games so bakers indoors yes i know that but again i wasn't looking at baker initially i was looking at taylor heinecky so i think that it's very very important to keep in mind that we should love dome games again this is not groundbreaking people other people will say it but it's nice to see the data support what we all think is true so i always bump up dome games i don't think i talk about that enough but how do you kind of handle this i know you're big into wind but yeah specifically with domes what i think the key thing that you mentioned is how they perform relative to projections because that's what people operate off of is projections and if they outperform projections indoors you should bump up guys indoors even more so than there are to be bumped up so i think that's a great thing for all these dome games so specifically i love it for kyler because he's the the one quarterback i like outside of dak who is indoors so kyler gets a bump up there i would say he makes you feel better about that rams or the the vikings browns game makes me feel better about the cowboys despite a tough matchup which you'll be touching on later as well so i think it really does maybe it helps me like whittle things down like maybe i should just be higher on kyler and dak and maybe not as high on ross who is outdoors stuff like that i'm not going to be off of ross i still like ross still will be very high on ross but like it does help smooth things out for kyler and dak even though they have concerns with regards to match up so i think that's the the major thing for me is giving me a bit more safety with two guys i like despite having some red flags around them yeah i think if nothing else tiebreakers um it is kind of how you can view this and also uh eventually we'll see like a dome game with a 56 point total when everything else is at like 50 or below and it's like yeah yeah that's gonna kind of everyone's gonna play that one but it's these games where like again maybe calvin ridley terry mcclaurin mini stacks are something that has a lot of appeal given we're not super into the quarterbacks again i talked myself out of heinecky to some degree i still think he's a relatively you got the wrong mini stack though it's cordial with mcclaurin come on but like you know eventually that's quarterback in that game cordial paterson i i just i i'm starting to uh get more and more open to that game in particular with like the mini stack angle um so i want to make sure that that much is known i think the mini stacks work pretty well there because we know we want to go to that that helps a lot there my first friend is talking about the eagles offense because i always want to use kansas city like as a rule because they're great they're kansas city the problems they're facing the eagles and i need to decide a if the eagles can keep up and b with whom i'd want to run it back with if i do decide to stack here and the keeping up portion is tough because kansas city is favored by seven my numbers say that say they should be favored by nine and a half points in part because i have home field being worth just one point five points and i think that's less than the books have it at so let's say the cheese here were favored by nine and a half rather than seven my interest level in this game would be a bit more muted and that's mostly due to philadelphia's offense they ranked 21st in projected offensive efficiency for me this week despite the very good matchup that's behind pittsburgh washington new orleans other teams are not super jazzed about this week so i do worry a bit about them keeping pace the good thing is they do play kind of fast kansas city tends to keep its foot on the gas even when they're up pretty big so kansas city is fine but downgraded a bit in what may be a less competitive game for bringbacks and stuff miles sanders can lose some work in passing situations he has just 11 percent of the team's red zone chances this year that's a wolf absolute wolf there divante smith can work he has 22 percent of the overall targets 50 percent of the deep targets but he's not catching the long balls he's caught just one of seven deep targets and that was an 18-yard touchdown against atlanta i don't want to jail and rager because he thinks uh quest walkins doesn't get enough volume same thing with the tight end so smith is like the best bringback option but even he's flawed so i'm having a tough time with this one brandon how you feel about the chief's offense here and how are you feeling about the eagles um believe it or not i do like the chiefs this week um bold i i don't really worry about that they're one and two they need wins uh andy reeds playing the eagles he himself is playing the eagles um he's gonna suit up a quarterback this week and he's going to punter yeah everything just like that that all the that old footage he's gonna pass the kick yeah um i don't i i wouldn't i would worry more if they were like three i know and it's like they don't have to go out there and do anything but they need wins it's not time to panic um they have a really easy schedule opening up but they they're not going to want to fall to one and three they're going to have a lot of things planned up to get tirey kill more involved regardless of the coverage he has 11 targets over the past two games which is he's kind of been like at 11 targets per game last year is like he got crazy good volume um so i don't feel bad about them the concern obviously is the bringback as you as you touched on and i think honestly for me is just davante smith i've i'm not including jalen herds in that where i'll have jalen herds plus like helsey and in uh a tirey kill but it's davante smith because of the downfield work uh eventually he's got to catch some of those it just has to happen it's not he's not a j green last year um and i kind of considered zack erz at 4700 but the the the way that zack erz is super relevant this week is if travis kelsey is limited to like 17 fandal points and you just take the savings and and erz gets to like 11 yeah and there's just not a whole lot of like because kelsey could i understand the salary here but travis kosie's so dangerous because if he puts up 22 you can't make that up at a certain place behind at tight end now the salary is different but you know receivers it like the 6000 range can put up bigger games so like you have to kind of factor that all in kelsey's really scary to to fade this week so um i don't know if i can get to zack erz yeah i don't have concerns about the chiefs i agree with you there i think that that's good to be in on them for all the reasons you mentioned as far as the bringback like no eagles skill position guys scored more than 16.1 fandal points this year that was divante in week one the other time the top 14 was mild sanders also in week one against the falcons like they're top three point totals from skill position guys are all from that game the the next highest one is zack erz last week against dalas quest walkins have that 91 yard catch against san francisco like he he had 12 but like they just don't they don't put up big games i think divante is the one who can so that's why i'll bring it back but like let's say this let's say you're doing one chiefs lineup with mahomes and then either kelsey or tira kelsey or hill do you run it back with divante or do you run it with just the the single team stack and get exposure elsewhere uh yeah that's the issue because smith could easily bust based on how the offense is fared i would probably lean toward playing him though just because i so strongly know what the data says here and it says to play divante smith in a and and that might honestly be like a single entry approach for me i don't think i've had a single lineup this year where i didn't run it back or have a quarterback paired with an opposing player i will have that this week i won chiefs lineup without divante smith but i also have him in there just it's it's tough to talk myself and anyone else let's move now to your second trend talk about that dalas versus carolina game we appreciate we adore we have profited off of the dalas offense at times over the past couple of years however tough matchup here with carolina you're looking at carolina's defense stickiness of this stuff and um how outlier defense is stifle opposing teams yeah so in general um matchups are a bit overrated when it comes to fantasy analysis it doesn't particularly matter if a team is like 12 against the past compared to 22nd it just doesn't matter a ton what matters are the outliers specifically on the high end so that's why i wanted to dig in to the panthers because we know this games indoors uh got the high total tight spread we'd like the cowboys offense historically but uh the panthers defense has just been really good through three games number fire has them ranked first and overall adjusted defense first against the rush second against the pass which is what i'm mostly focused on i don't care a whole lot about rush defense uh pro football focus has them ranked second in coverage grade basically anywhere you look the panthers defense has played really well by any measure now again i think you and i probably value matchups less than a lot of people but we care about these outliers and looking at the data i'm still worried so the question we have to keep in mind through all this is how legit is the panthers defense if we think that it's not as legit then we don't have to worry but against top six past the offenses it's kind of noteworthy looking at projections against top six past defenses uh court again going back to those quarterback ones uh in terms of the pregame projections they averaged a projection of 16.4 points per game against top six units 18.3 against bottom six units so again that's all baked into things like situation but also in this context the pass defense even with that near two point gap in projection differential between the outliers at the top and the bottom quarterback ones meet expectation against bottom six past defenses but still underperformed by a full point against top six units they are 21% likely to go for a 300 yard game against top six past defenses compared to 27% outside of that sample passers are 47% likely to go over the yardage projection in games against non top six past defenses but only 40% likely to do it against top six units so again we see the odds go down against these outlier defenses once you take that away once it's like 7th or 8th or 9th it doesn't matter as much it's really like these really good defenses so in terms of percentages this is not ideal for Dak Prescott uh Dak has played above opponent expectation this season based on his adjusted expected points per drop back um not running the ball ton 6.3 yards per game on the ground below average a dot of seven yards I initially thought I could sort of ignore this matchup because I love the game um we talked about things like quarterback popularity but I think you said Dak was well to be popular yes but that was also the same place where I saw that Darren Kenner is projected to 3.2% okay so or not that's not the exact number because then I'm not gonna they're a very good site I'm not gonna put them on blast but um so I don't have like I'm not approaching this as well play Dak against a really good defense because nobody else would be there we can get leverage a quarterback in virtually any way we want but you probably know way more about defense than I do so is Carolina's defense this good that we should downgrade this offense or does it not quite matter I think it's too early you think they're not quite good enough what are you seeing here so do I think they're very good yes they've gotten very good players scattered everywhere so I think they're very good do I think we should avoid Dallas because they're good no I don't think so yet because I think Carolina there are a lot of smart people who liked Carolina's defense coming into this year and people I respect so I went in with the same thing thinking okay they'll probably be pretty good this year but they lost JC Horne that means that there is at least a weak spot in this defense right now and we've seen Kellan Moore prove he is cognizant of how you should attack teams based on the way he not only the temp they gain but also like against the chargers and the Eagles they were incentivized to run and they did I don't think that'll be the incentive this week I think the incentive will be attack those corners attack the outside corners try to take advantage of the JC Horne injury and see what happens so to me that says they're going to throw a lot more than they had the past two weeks that to me says Amara Cooper see Lam are in very good spots so I greatly respect the Carolina defense but I'm still going to be in on Dallas here so I think that's the way I'm viewing things for right now so to answer your question yes I think that they're good no I don't think we should avoid Dallas quite yet what about you yeah I'm kind of there too so I know that the trend ultimately feels like falls a little bit flat but I think it's good to note long term right especially if we find out that they are that good but also like Denver is actually they're the team that ranks better in number fires past defense metrics we're not attacking Denver and the data says that's okay same for Buffalo right now which and then New England and New Orleans and then Arizona are the top six but Buffalo Carolina and Denver are like the three outliers right now so I'm sure these numbers would get even stronger if I had like a parameter where if you're x percent better than the league average and kind of look at it from that perspective so I think there might be three teams right now that says just pump the breaks Denver Carolina and Buffalo so for this week I thought Carolina was the team to dig into just because of Dak yeah sorry go ahead no I just ultimately I don't think I'm gonna talk myself out of this passing offense but I think I'll probably downgrade it from what I initially was expecting at the beginning of the week if I combine 2021 data with my preseason prior Carolina is the fifth best defense in football this this or you know I'd projection the fifth best defense that's pretty good that's even with the prior still being most of that number I had a decent prior on them that's part of why but like so I think they're a good defense I think they'll be sustainably good they'll stay good but with Dallas I just think we can still go there so I'll be in on Dallas yeah what do you think about Zeke 7000 I don't think this is a week to use him personally I love the way he's looked I think his role is better than perception given how much red zone work he's getting but I just don't think this is the week to use him because we've got Gibson right there we've got Aaron Jones basically right there Deandre Swift right there so and Chiba Hubbard beneath him so I'm not going to use Zeke this week if he burns me that's fine I'm okay with that I just don't think this is a week to do it personally what about you probably not unless I end up talking myself into this game being the best of all of them which I could because Sam Darnold's been really good yeah I like DJ more a lot Hubbard but probably be on Robbie given the Dan Arnold trade no I'll probably have some in GameStacks he's a clear distant third behind Chiba and DJ more DJ more is going to have like a tough spot with Trayvon Diggs but that's fine you know he's good don't care okay my second trend here is talking about running backs and games with low totals because a lot of the best backs this week are in rough games Derek Henry Alvin Kamera Najee Harris Deandre Swift David Montgomery Aaron Jones Saquon Barkley all in games with totals under 46 points with quarterbacks to me that'd be a cross-off because very rarely do we have quarterbacks out of games the total under 48 but running back is a bit different last year the average total for all games was 48.1 40% of running backs in perfect fan dual lineups came from games the total of 48 or lower so that's compared to 52% of all games having totals in that range so running backs in those games were less likely to be in a perfect lineup than those in higher scoring games but 40% is not nothing and it's higher than a lot of other positions only 12% of quarterbacks in perfect lineups came from games with totals under 48 or 48 or lower because one of them was exactly 48 it was 29% at wide receiver tight end was 41% defense 59% so it still mattered at running back you still did want to prioritize high total games but not nearly as much a quarterback and not as much as a wide receiver to me I think that at least gives us leeway to use these guys and lower total games if we're convinced enough by their role Henry is fine he gets dinged at the tight end struggle with efficiency or the Jets can't keep up but you know that's the real only real pushback there Jones Aaron Jones pretty easy to buy given his role the Steelers tough matchup but they're not unbeatable David Montgomery and DeAndre Swift are in a rough game but the spread is tight and that matters more for me at running back than the total so how are you viewing these backs in games lower totals is there anybody here you are crossing off potentially due to the nature of the game so I mentioned at the top of the show that I sort my like all the games by over under and kind of take notes from there just because it's like that inverted pyramid where you got to put the the most important stuff at the top I don't really need to dig into journals and coming out of Brandon here I'm going to pyramid I don't I don't need to uh dig into the saints and giants as much as I need to dig into some of these other games but yeah with these lower totals I didn't quite get there with like as detailed of notes as I typically do um so some of these guys were not on my radar until I stepped outside of my detailed notes and just looked at the game and made sure I didn't overlook anybody I'm kind of in on a lot of uh a lot of these names I think Montgomery is the one I'm least interested in just because of the offense but uh Swift and Jones very much in play for me um and with Derek Henry I think I think the problem is the salary is so high for the for me the offensive expectations so among the list that you mentioned at the top I will have Deandre Swift Aaron Jones I guess maybe that's that's actually it you'll use him Derek Henry oh yeah I'll use Derek Henry but not like he's not like uh a core play yeah I think if we're talking about like crossoffs like Camara I'm okay not being super high on I'm okay not being super high on Barkley um like the passing offense for New Orleans is kind of killing Alvin Camara which sounds weird for a running back but like that's where he gets a lot of his values via pass catching and they're just not throwing so like it really hurts him I think so I think that this allows me to justify Swift at his salary he is $7700 but he ranks fifth on the slate and adjusts opportunities per game whereas he's sixth in salary he is third in yards per game yards from screens per game behind Henry and Dalvin he has a decent red zone rule Dan Campbell has said we'll see more of him so I can get to Swift for sure um okay I like Aaron Jones a lot I rank Jones above Swift due to the offenses but I would say uh yeah Camara and Barkley the two I'll I'll lob off there but Swift Jones Henry and uh yeah Swift Jones and Henry guys I'm okay with let's take a look at some okay so no nodgy we're kind of deciding here at that salary I'm okay okay what about you I'm with you yeah okay whether for this week we could do some spots where rain could impact things for me personally I don't care too much about rain unless it's like a downpour or if it comes with heavy winds so keep in mind rain is not a massive massive red flag for us the places with potential rain are Philadelphia for the Eagles and Chiefs New Jersey for the Jets and Giants Chicago for the Bears and Lions potentially Arlington eventually for Chicago games uh Buffalo for the Bills and Titans those against potential rain the only one in that group with noteworthy wind is Bills and Texans I said Titans the Bills and Texans that's at 11 mile per hour winds right now so nothing super restrictive yet but check back on that later the one what does have wind with no rain is in Miami for the Colts and Dolphins so Brandon your Jacoby Berset revenge game line has been burned I'm sorry you had a good run um but we got to move on from those uh so check back on the wind for that one for all your Jacoby Berset Divante Parker stacks let's move now to our position by position breakdown outlying our favorite options for this week over on Vanduul.com Brandon who are you in on for week number four on Vanduul? Patrick Mahomes 8700 has 24.9 Vanduul points or more in all three games but somehow doesn't feel like he's erupted probably because of the the losses um we may worry that Philadelphia trails but I've been saying at all show Chiefs are one and two they need to get back on track that's going to flow through Patrick Mahomes I know it's a bit subjective I would feel differently if they were undefeated I would say maybe they don't need to run it up but Mahomes averaging 313 yards per game three touchdowns very very good relative to expectation no issues there my second love honestly should be Kyler Murray but for right now it's Russell Wilson at 7700 I know that I did talk about passing matchups with Dak and Carolina but it's different once you get outside those outliers San Francisco ranked ninth against the pass according to number fire um and it's the first time around for this divisional matchup Russ has put up 298 yards per game nine and a half yard a dot which is like two four yards better than the league average we know where the ball's going it's going to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett they've combined for 56 percent of the targets and 80 percent of the air yards you can't really overstate how important it is uh to be able to hit on the right stacks once your quarterback hits like what if your quarterback has a big game and you know where the ball is going that has inherent an immense value I acknowledge that while saying Kyler Murray is my top love what could go wrong it is a tough matchup just not sure if that matters for him because we did see Tom Brady I know it was a lot of it was late but he moved the ball against the Rams 0.32 passing that expected points per drop back in that game he was a 0.17 against the Cowboys and the Falcons we've not seen a nuclear Kyler rushing performance yet but he still has 34 plus points twice scored 19.5 last week with no passing touchdowns so I hope he goes overlooked because the matchup I would understand that for sure because the Rams have a lot of good dudes still but I think that there's enough turnover here given the the brand of silly departure where I'm okay using Kyler Murray despite the tough matchup um I think that he's he's really good I'll go with that number two I know the matchup is tough but they've also faced Zach Wilson uh Davis Mills and James Winston Wilson actually did move the ball against them in the second half like the second half of that game was probably the best Wilson has played this year so far now there's no JC Horn Dax at home where he tends to just go absolutely bananas so they're not going to be able to coach and just run the ball this time I do like Russell lot I do think that Matthew Stafford isn't playing we've not talked about him yet I think that Stafford is is pretty solid this week too but I really do want to get to Dak despite the tough matchup with Carolina you have a question there no you're going to ask something no okay cool let's move now to your running back what do you have there I'm going to go with the Vikings um with either Daven Cook at 9500 or Alexander Madison at 6800 uh if Daven plays it's going to be Daven if not it's going to be Madison Cook has averaged 31 adjusted opportunities which is your carries plus two x targets on a 73 percent snap rate with five targets per game 44 route rate if he's healthy gonna play Daven if not Madison would be in line for another big workload 42 adjusted opportunities last week 67 percent snap rate 44 route rate five red zone carries like the game so it's going to be one of the two my second love is going to be Antonio Gibson which is kind of strange for me because I'm usually fairly low on Gibson just because of the third down work but hard to envision the Falcons pouring it on any defense especially one that has at least the ability to be good even though Washington hasn't been great to start the year um this game is first in pace sixth and pass rate on the main slate according to my numbers pass rate helps for efficiency so I want that um Taylor Heineke has at least been fine enough uh he's not a massive massive negative so I'm okay with that especially against such an easy defense Gibson again like not always my my guy because he plays 60 percent of snaps the past two weeks with Heineke starting but Atlanta's 25th and rushing success rate allowed to running back so I feel pretty good here with the game and with Gibson not being phased out and my third love kind of has to be I think Chuba Hubbard especially because we don't know the status of Darryl Henderson yet Sony Michelle would definitely make this list if we knew but Hubbard at 6300 he should just have a really good workload um Dallas 22nd and rushing success rate allowed to running backs 11 carries five targets last week almost half of the routes 56 percent of snaps three reds on carries and two reds on targets we might be tilting that Royce Freeman gets like some goal line work that's kind of the biggest drawback but that's really the only drawback here yeah I think that um with Hubbard I don't have as many concerns as others may I guess just because the role was so good after um McCaffrey left and like it was Hubbard who was in in the the points going situations because he had uh 39 in the red zone chances last week and that includes the entire game um now Hubbard has not been great his success rate is 32 percent whereas McCaffrey is at 42 percent but Royce Freeman I'm pretty sure isn't like 20 so I don't know if pivoting to Royce Freeman is going to be uh a positive there for Caroline so tube Hubbard one of my loves as well I still like him given how desirable this game is it's not a perfect situation like it's not a 100 sake one Barkley situation like we had last week but I think that it's fine enough to feel good about him here I also the Vikings guys is one of my loves whoever it may be um I want running backs and tight games and this is very much that across Dalvin's two games 126 yards per game he has 44 percent of the red zone chances in Madison last week 171 yards 44 percent of the red zone chances like whoever whoever is the running back there will be in my lineups a lot I did consider Antonio Gibson as my other love um I went there and Jones I have him slightly above Gibson but I do think Gibson is a very good option this week Jones has a good role this year if you ignore the New Orleans blow which I think you should in his past two games he has 26 adjust opportunities per game which is again carries plus two X targets 106 yards and scrimmage per game 59 percent of the red zone chances in those two games so he has a stupid role the matchup is scary but he's $7400 so I don't I think that he's fine I think that Aaron Jones is a core play for me this week despite facing the Steelers any thoughts for you on Aaron Jones I gave mine on Gibson there's any thoughts for you and Jones yeah like him I think he's uh kind of the 1a or 1b between he and Gibson in that $7000 range uh running back usually is where you and I really fixate I'm not saying this is a week where I would flex a receiver I don't feel quite that bad about running back but I don't feel like locked in to many guys well I think the one thing you could say is like if you look at the $7000 range like the wide receivers there let's go in the $7000 range you've got you can use Aaron Jones who we like Deandre Swift who we like um you know Antonio Gibson or you can use DJ Moore Calvin Ridley Terry McLauren I think that's the least a consideration yeah you know it's a question rather than a certainty that you're going back yeah it's a good receiver who you got there DJ Moore there we go there are a lot of good receivers just to allocate a lot of salary on but DJ Moore I think has a really good role that probably is understated because he hasn't scored yet love this game despite any concerns that we might have about Carolina's defense the it's fifth in pace first in pass rate you like to see that Moore's at a 31 target share overall 41% of the air yards on 2.3 downfield targets per game I mean eventually he's got to have some touchdown regression he's one of the biggest outliers and like negative touchdown expectation over the past three years had 92% of the routes 36% of the targets 54% of the air yards three downfield targets last week with Christian McCaffrey leaving early you love that love the game second love Odo Beckham 6600 salaries very justifiable for the role 63% of the snaps 81% of the routes last week in a very positive script 31% of the targets with seven total 51% of the team's air yards including four downfield targets 144 total air yards playing indoors like the game key part of many stacks key part of bringing it back with that one cook and then my third love is I think going to be Devonte Smith at 59 hundred there's a lot of risk but we like this game in Kansas City's 29th overall against the pass 23rd against the deep pass 28th and adjusted Fandall points per target allowed to receivers Smith's at a 22% target share 43% of the air yards it's got almost a 15 yard a dot on running 93% of the routes it's really hard to envision a scenario where they don't have to throw the ball a lot I know they need to convert like Devonte Smith has to convert eventually but it he can't just not catch any of these deep targets forever right maybe right I'm going to use them this week so I'm fine with them just I wouldn't say that's a certainty my first love and receiver is DK McCaff because the 49ers corners are really beat up right now and Tyler Lockett might not be at full health himself. McCaff this year has 32% of the overall targets 44% of the deep targets and 60% in the red zone that's an insane role he has a very good floor tremendous upside and a really fun game so DK McCaff to me is my primary priority within that 7000 range my second love is kind of not a wide receiver but it's Cordero Patterson because he's low salary to access to a pretty fun game the traditional checklist for me at wide receiver is they need to be able to get you either 85 yards or two touchdowns to make a perfect lineup Cordero has two touchdowns in one game this year and eight a hundred and something yards in another so he's gotten there twice in three games he's having to send him 0.3 yards per game he's played 61% of the red zone snaps the past two weeks compared to Mike Davis at 44% that role is not certain to stick so I don't think Cordero Patterson is like a cash gameplay but I think that he is a guy I'm okay having 30 ish percent of internments feeling okay about it just because the role is good enough I think to justify that you get a running back at wide receiver I think that's like Wanda Robinson back in the day when he was at Nebraska oh man those those were the days in college with all BFS just just great stuff right there my third love is Brandon Iuk question mark his role bounced back last week ran a bunch of routes six total targets three of those were in the red zone which is kind of where he feasts uh one of those is deep Georgia kid on this practice Wednesday doesn't sound like a big concern but worth noting that could free up more targets in this offense I have a strong inclination towards Debo Sanual love him in this game but there's also a $1,200 salary gap between these two guys so I think among the guys in the 5000 range of wide receiver I kind of think that Iuk might be my favorite potentially by a hair over Devontae Smith but Devontae Smith also right there I do like AJ Green as upsetting disturbing disgruntling KJ Osborne I will have some sprinkles of again despite last week being deaf let's go to tight end what do you got there yeah I'm I think I'm back in on Iuk but I'm going to say George Kittle here although it really should just be Travis Kelsey because I'm going to build around Kelsey but I think George Kittle like we don't need to talk about Travis Kelsey yeah George Kittle I think his role is uh at least a standout relative to everyone other than Kelsey 100 of the snaps last week with Iuk's role back 75 of the routes nine targets plus a downfield target led the team in air yards Seattle is 25th and adjusted fandal points per target allowed to tight ends like the game Kittle is going to be part of those stacks and then my second love at tight end Mike Kosicki 5400 again I considered Zach Hertz but I'm going to go with Kosicki he got 12 targets from Jacobi Berset last week so there's that at 86 yards on them you know not every tight end has some yardage upside but Kosicki's athletic enough to do it and even if he's like not for whatever reason the volume's there so like that's something in Indianapolis is 24th and adjusted fandal points per target a lot of tight ends so far so I think you could do worse than Kosicki I do think the salaries good on Kittle at 67 I think that uh I will be there and I think he's a good part of game stacks too but yeah I think that that works my first love is Tyler Higby again shooting access to a fun game he missed some snaps last week because he was cramping but those are the only snaps he's missed all year or when he was cramping so five targets there it's not the best overall role but he has a clear path to a big game he gets me access to a very good passing offense it's a game I want to stack so I'll go back to Higby this week even with the role not being fully optimized my second love is Logan Thomas he hasn't blown up yet but this is easily their best game environment thus far the Falcons haven't been too bad while facing relevant tight ends like Robert and Koski and the Eagles guys but Thomas the clear number two passing option in this offense he has 16% of the overall targets he has three deep targets three in the red zone I think that his role is fine and it's access to a good game so I'll go with Higby and Thomas as my loves at tight end let's move now to defense Brandon what do you have there I got the chiefs at 3700 I know they're not a great defense right now in terms of like the passing efficiency and literally everything but they should play from ahead that should lead to sacks and potentially picks Jaylen Hertz does have just a five percent sack rate right now but 60 percent of fandal points I say this a lot come from sacks and interceptions so I don't care if Philly scores points if Kansas is going to be playing from ahead I like that then it also consider both of the defense is speaking of pace and pass rate in the Atlanta and Washington game Atlanta's 3600 and Washington's 4000 yeah I think that the chiefs are interesting I know that again like he said Hertz doesn't take a lot of sacks which is good he has historically like in college he took a lot of sacks yeah but also the chiefs just got Frank Clark Chris Jones practiced on Wednesday in a limited fashion but they practiced which is good Jordan Milotta still not practicing for the Eagles their left tackle their guards are both going to be out for this game so and Landon Dickerson's not fully healthy either the backup guard so he's very good he's you know not their starter so there are enough injuries there where I have concerns about the Eagles offense my love is Dallas in the spots where I don't use either Chuba or DJ Moore Robbie Anderson I really don't mind them at $3,800 they rank eighth in overall defense through three weeks based on number fires metrics the Panthers offensive line is hideous I know we haven't seen you know James Darnold flashback up yet this year but he's still in there somewhere you know we at Sam Darnold negative script we have the recipe for Dallas's defense to be good and we have not seen Sam Darnold run a snap from behind yet this year so we've not seen the recipe for James Darnold yet but I think that he still lurks down there deep inside so I think the Dallas defense pretty solid turn option for this week despite the fact that I think that game is stackable and not terribly too bad that is all that we have here for today on the heat check fantasy podcast but still plenty of NFL stuff to come here uh cross all of our platforms uh today Brandon be previewing Thursday night football between the Bengals and the Jaguars that is at 4 p.m. Eastern on the Fandall YouTube Twitch Facebook and Twitter pages breaking down the single game slate there our snake draft week number four is on Friday at four Brandon won this past week boo it's we're all tied up at one apiece we'll we'll break that tie this week four to four thirty on the Fandall YouTube Twitch Facebook and Twitter pages brandy if any final thoughts for you on this week four main slate you know we spent an hour and 20 minutes talking about this slate and I am starting to kind of formulate where I want to be um but I think going back to what I said earlier I'm going to try to figure out where the public is and just go with the games that are getting overlooked because not all the games are going to be as popular as each other so right I feel good with that route okay I think that that is a fair way to do it I need to sort out the mid-range running backs it's my main task I think it's Aaron Aaron Jones and Gibson but still more work to be done there to decide how I want to play things that is all that we have here for today make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast UFC NASCAR MLB podcast all coming up on Friday to get you set for Friday and this weekend hit subscribe also leave us a rating and review if you like what you hear branded people have questions for you on twitter where can they find you there i'm at gaduola 13 gd upla 13 and i'm at jim saunas j i m s a n n e s if you want to watch me celebrate baker mayfield's victory over taylor heinecky the stuff coming sunday which is sure to be a delight big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today we'll talk to you once again on monday to wrap it all up looking forward to it going some cash in week number four don't forget the listener league fan dual dot com slash league slash listener league this has been heat shack fantasy podcast powered by number fire