 The following is a presentation of TFNN The power trading hour with your host David white Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618 now David white And welcome all to another excellent edition of the power trading hour with me Your host and we come to you at this time no matter where you're at. Just be here at this time How did I know that that wasn't gonna do what I thought it was gonna do Well, because I had to take my computer apart this morning and clean all the dust out of it And when I did it of course literally Everything changed we got I thought we got all of them But I forgot to get that one so it doesn't matter what time it is as long as you are here at this time The following takes place between 2 p.m. And 3 p.m. So we've got a market the considerably down mostly the Nasdaq almost double the S&P the Dow Kind of looking the best of the bunch out here down 222 Which is just six tenths of a percent? Russell's down to a point two percent. We've got some other stuff crews off 28 cents gold all that glitters is gold up 23 bucks on the day and Well, we've got a lot of stuff going on the best explanation I've heard so far because I don't believe in coincidences so when FINRA didn't have the short data Last night or this morning on their website. I started scratching my head because generally It doesn't matter who it is if it's Yahoo finance or big charts or all those kind of stuff suddenly everything goes out And it's never a coincidence. It seems So I thought okay either everybody's extremely short or nobody was short But I didn't know until about one 15 1 30 today When they finally put it up and the answer was no one was short So I have a feeling that a lot of folks decided that there were a A a lot of money to be made going after highly leveraged positions Think it was a week or ten days ago that I said something about Kathy Woods and Now seemed to leave fooled by randomness an excellent book one that every treater should read His approaches might vary from mine because he's got four billion dollars That he manages. I don't have quite that much just three point nine billion. So That's kind of it hang on a second here A tech insider subscriber Well, you should read the tech insider because I just sent it out not too long ago There should be a bunch of stuff Todd. So we'll answer that question from Todd About stuff that I'm looking at so anyway the oh Getting back to my thought process It seemed to me Even seven ten days ago that there wasn't somebody That he was talking about in his book any more than Kathy Woods at Ark investments If you missed the book, I'll give you the cliff notes here That is that he talked about a variety of traders ones that just kept doubling down a lot of his book Of course came right after capital or long-term capital investments In fact, I was talking to somebody that was making a model of the market and I'm talking to him and he says Yeah I'm actually emailing him back and forth and I said really the problem you have and why the stuff you have is not going to work Literally at all no matter how good your programming skills are as you don't understand how the market actually works and He was just going well I you haven't done anything. You didn't give me any code. So I don't have to give you any code. I Said there's a book you can probably get it for free at the library if you want It's called fool by randomness and he talks about big wheeling type Wall Street folks And kind of a tale of two cities one just keeps doubling down and doubling down until they all blow up But that would be kind of it You never know Did okay anyway, I Kathy Woods Just literally Ripped out of the pages of his book from 2003 Which is really a treatise on long-term capital management and the stuff blowing up right after 2000 We talked about the most important chart that anybody could look at what eight days ago Think it was last a week ago Tuesday And I said you got to know where you're at in the market Doesn't mean that you're not going to have very good times even in a bear market And you're gonna find lows, but the important part is that Is the markets were frothy? It was very hard for me to buy anything that was long and hold it for more than a day We had the SMH calls Wednesday and made a Quick 110% on them or more today, I've got options positions to and As I said probably the thing if you don't want to lose a lot of money Probably is to be playing options. They're fairly cheap. Well, not so much anymore Everybody's expecting the market to bounce at least if you look at the UV XY Where the $25 calls for the 17th? I mean the $25 puts for the 17th of this month are $5 So the things would have to move five bucks before you even break even How many people think that the market is going lower? Well If they think it's not going any lower or higher Then there's a lot of premium to be bled off of those things between now and the 17 But we haven't even gotten to options expiration really starting That really starts on Wednesday the 8th Going into monthly options expiration on the 17th so Anyway heard a lot over the last couple of days about margin calls lately today. It's all about Robinhood and Why I heard or talked to one of my subscribers in the den today about it He says it was he's been over to their chat rooms And they're all getting ready to look for an open window on the 13th floor to jump out of Because they're all getting ready to get their first really big margin call probably not their first but probably a big margin call and If you do it right you don't get margin calls Generally that's done by not going home on margin, but as I said about Kathy Woods Anybody that's got 35 to 1 margin is gonna get wiped out and it's just a matter of time The good thing is They look very fantastic for a long time. They are the darlings of all Eventually the tide comes in for everybody Goes out in the case of Warren Brother. He says you can only tell swimming without a bathing suit The she's naked Are you grinding in the market? 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I don't have a slide for the day On this day in 2001 inventor Dean Cayman unveils the segue self-balancing battery powered vehicle on a TV show Segway uses computers and monitors in its base to keep itself upright whether the user is writing it User shift their weight to control the segue why not? Considered a commercial success the segue definitely became a familiar icon mostly because Paul Blart Mall Cop, but it was a it was a very interesting device and that shows a lot about technology Of course, he ended up selling it To another gentleman in England. I think in 2009 and 2010 Ironically the guy wrote it off a cliff and that's why you really don't hear much about segue today But certainly an icon of transportation Okay, we're gonna get back to a lot of questions. We already have Pete's first Why such large bid-ass spreads in many stocks liquid stocks? Options in this morning and that is because it's a rolling auction. That is no one really wants To get that bid and ask if they want if they are they're going to get it And they're probably going to take the other side of that trade so Let's say that you can lock in Instantly some money by just buying or selling a put or call and then taking the other side and going long or short The stock for today since it is Friday and you can get Get weeklies so to an extent if there is that ability and you and you wait for the the big wind up a lot of times That's why you get those gigantic enormous spreads in the options market But yeah, both on buyers and sellers. It's been a hard market To get in or get out But that's what you get when you get a rolling auction and nobody really buying on the downside Mostly because if they're coming after you everybody on the street already knows That's kind of the thing always reminds me of good fellas When Ray Liotta breaks character in the witness stand and comes out and starts talking In front of the people he's going to be witnessing about In in good fellas he says they never come to you when they never come to you and yell and scream They always come to you with smiles on your face. They don't let you know that you're gonna get killed In fact, they're probably better to you. I think that's out of the book. They're probably better to you Right before they're gonna whack you Then they are on a normal day. So if everybody's being nice to you Kind of watch out. Well, I have a feeling a lot of people knew something Maybe it's our investments. Maybe it's Robin Hood. Maybe it's a lot of folks But my guess is a lot of people kept buying the dips and this was an inevitable low now I don't believe in Coincidences and not being able to get the Finra short data for yesterday was interesting But either like I said either everybody went short or nobody did and it was a very light Very few people were short. That's generally when you have these big kind of markets where you can't find any buyers Because there aren't any natural buyers down here on the way lower Options actually pointed a fairly bullish close today. That'll look like we're gonna get that Even if they did I wasn't a big believer in it I got into other things which are both up on the day. In fact, I'm up 25% on one of my One of my options positions, but You know, you don't always have to be involved. You can go there's a lot of different areas in the in the market besides Playing the equities and I found something else to do and I'm making money today on it instead of predicting about Where this is gonna stop? It's gonna be probably a lot more like Stuart Just a Stuart Potter Was it a name Stuart Potter? Yeah, that's I think it was a name who said, you know what I Don't know what pornography is But I know it when I see it and that's generally the way lows come in You're gonna see some kind of rip that makes it happen But somebody asked me earlier if I thought that the UV XY it peaked I said I suspect it does at the close today So we'll probably be fairly close to having a kind of a wash out No one likes to go long into a weekend So you can find a lot of times that buying these Friday blowouts are good. I don't think that there's a need to do So I'm gonna be up Sunday night and Monday morning trying to go after a few these where I think that there's probably a good opportunity To find some deals. I don't think that you need to get ahead of it though I think that the risk reward is a lot better Sunday night or Monday morning at 6 a.m Than it is on Friday on the clothes Okay, anyway We have a few more emails here that we want to get to Let me answer this guy got the wrong Impression Okay Okay, can you look at the chart below of the CBOE put call ratio looks like it's peaking and Of course, I do my own Every day so one of us go to that one Which is the put call ratio? I do it a little bit differently than a lot of folks I don't believe you can have over 100% and a lot of people will talk about put call ratios at 200% and stuff and You take both sides That's a hundred percent and then you divvy it up But even yesterday, we didn't really have much Although we did have a lot of people buying Vicks puts and you went high It really wasn't the blowout that we had earlier back on the 24th and the 6th But we'll continue to keep an eye on some of that stuff Okay, yeah, he had a little more yesterday in the equity put call 38% which is a little higher But it's not any kind of blowout The Vicks is generally where you see the big swings But again, not a lot of it wasn't a huge blowout day For what you would think of a lot of people were going short short. We probably have one and a half million options Vicks options trading hands and we didn't I'll look at his chart during the break, but I don't think he maybe he's looking at it daily or something I don't tend to watch that much on Dailies, but we will take a look at it when we return Are you having fun trading the markets? But having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with? 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So you can see I put it in the newsletter every day So I look at one. That's just a little different Here it is a put call. Come on Go So that's mine So you can see it so we did spike a bit yesterday to 60 generally that's a good sign of a low coming in Option market makers thought that we had it so they probably weren't in on the we're gonna route everybody down to Whatever it is right now 4,500 they all thought 4,600 going into this morning and I think the jobs numbers kind of changed all that I think no one was expecting That bad a number and that was it Anyway, you've got A lot going on here, but anyway, I look at two The way I look at it you could it could never have a put call ratio more than a hundred percent and To I separated Which I think is much more interesting in the VIX Which is the out of the money puts and calls in the S&P 500 compared to all the equities, which is this blue line below But that's what's in the newsletter every day that I look at But like I said, it scales a little bit better It doesn't when I look at a hundred and eighty percent. I start really getting my motor running and generally That's a bad thing when you're analyzing stocks You want to you want to be like the ice man in In top gun you want to be cool Under pressure Anyway interesting chart Thanks for sending it to me I'm just thinking that we're running the we've got the running of the bowls here today and We'll probably make a significant low by the clothes and it may even be a blowout into the clothes But whatever it is you're probably looking long come Monday morning if it doesn't turn around even before the end of the day But I would say this close you're not getting a lot of people want to stick their neck out That can't trade fairly quickly Good Call in the den to look at some of the retailers And John in the den says directly from top gun evaluate what has happened so you can apply what you've learned That was from Viper and top gun of course the last top gun movie has been delayed over a year and a half But it may never come out. I thought it was supposed to come out here any day now. I think they delayed it yet again Okay, anyway Walmart some of these others actually Kind of pierced their lows yesterday on volume Actually having well having a not a bad day out here. Let's take a quick look at Tgt Yeah, even that's up a little of course everybody's talking about the earnings or the lack of earnings last night and of course the one that is going to get the double boo And maybe boo-hoo That is DocuSign You got to know that these things were way up there but Can you be that wrong? I give I mean you can but I'm thinking that it was something else that I've missed so far today in DocuSign It was down 25% last night down 42% now Was a great stock when I originally started trading it became a football for the Robin Hooters and others a lock-down stock and people are saying at least on the inside of Wall Street that it's because there probably won't be another lock down that It went lower. I think that there's a good business underneath this I wouldn't along it nor would I have been long it going into earnings It's really more of a gamble than a prudent speculation Even in some of the stocks that did well like Marvel up 17% MRVL The reason I wouldn't have been long Marvel was it had no short sellers in the thing and that means that if you're wrong The thing could do a docuSign But everybody was wrong about being going lower And it popped high, but not a lot of short sellers in that but some very good news and Did fairly good. Let's see what They did yesterday if everybody shorted them right Or she only get this stuff now like I said, I mean I hadn't seen much of anything You're gonna see some shorting every day and Each stock will have its kind of a normal run rate The normal run rate for our average run rate for Marvel is about 8% Maybe seven and a half and you had six yesterday five the day before 0.1 back on Friday. So no one was really coming after this stock So you can't blame that on short sellers getting squeezed this apparently was just lots of good news on a very bad day and If you had Marvel my hat off to you a Tip of the hat a nod of the head. Yep Okay Winner winner chicken dinner. Yes, we will give it a winner winner Okay, and we didn't play the The losing horn for DocuSign it just it just feel like piling on to me just a little bit too much Anyway, I'm not a big fan of holding stocks to earnings even if you have a lot of money made and DocuSign We back in Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area including the surrounding St. Petersburg Tampa and Clearwater markets Tiger real estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area Whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay Area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed Decisions across all price levels from the price You should be paying per square foot in certain up-and-coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating Tiger real estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market before you make one of the biggest Decisions of your financial future called Tiger real estate LLC today at 727 329 8322 or email us at tiger at tfnn.com that's 727 329 8322 call us today Technology around us is changing every day was so much happening. 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That's tfnn.com and hit watch Tiger TV And we're back. We talked about a marvel and docusign We didn't get to other earnings Ulta as I said I don't know a few weeks ago. We were talking about this There it goes Big lines around the altos down here. I drive by them all and they're always there Big range on a bad day, but opened up fairly well. What is that about? 404 is that yeah 404 exactly so Yeah You know depends on what the market's like on Monday. It wasn't a bad day for those guys big lots another Earnings call from this morning up 6% Again a lot of the discounters low-end stores dollar general that kind of stuff Have been reporting fairly good earnings apparently these guys did and again on a bad day at Black Rock It's always nice to not be associated with the rest of those folks Up to 47 48. We have here today 47 75 for the big lots And I tell you when I go in the stores, they're a little creepy But what can you say they got good deals in there? but this kind of remind me of the old Kmart's with a with the Acoustic tiling that was yellow and the and of course everything had been turned yellow by the fluorescent lights and stuff, but always a mess In fact, it's not a great shopping experience other than cheap prices and lots of stuff at big lots Yeah, that's what they are Not everything has to be a rose going to Home Depot. I remember the story on Home Depot. Let's take a quick look at that one about when they first opened it up and it was all done like a like Tiffany's or Saxmouth Avenue and The guy that started it came in there and goes no, no, no, no We got to make this place look like we're on our last dime that we're getting the best prices in the world and they went to those orange those orange painted scaffolding kind of shelving some stuff but Yeah, everybody's got a niche blue light specials whoo and you have to be old to remember those and A shoe carnival. Why do I wonder if that's can't be still around but I went in there one day It's like a party going on But really cheap and crappy shoes didn't understand that either Home Depot looking good today If you wouldn't look if you wouldn't have known what was going on in the general market Hey, you wouldn't have probably said much holding up at highs a fairly light volume was taking good Look at lows. I don't think that there will be. I bet it's the same Looks just about the same doesn't Visually you're probably gonna come back to 237 which is or and You know what you sell the stocks that you can not the ones that you can't On a bad day like this. They make you But generally what happens after these bad days is You know the worst ones take a few days to get over but a lot of times there's some fairly good deals left out there Okay, the big question of the day the burning question the breakout in the TLT The Fed has not stopped pushing cash We've been talking about it the last few days Again, probably it's a combination of them pushing cash and people running for cover I remember why I didn't listen to probably a thing That Joe did not Joe to Napoli Joe I want to say gradually, but it's not Joe God, what's his name in the stock market? I'll think of it in a minute No, not Joe to Napoli It was a guy that was predicting doom and gloom He did it once in 87 and predicted it for the rest of the next 20 years and drove everybody bankrupt Granville Joe Granville. He did have occasionally even with the people that are always wrong or consistently wrong He was right once and then wrong for 20 years About being short Absolutely got slaughtered in his predictions going into 2000 you got to know that you know that you will have excesses in the market but Joe Granville had this theory called the Titanic theory and that was That when the ship starts going down at the bow, everybody's gonna run to the stern his idea is the equities are always the bow and Treasuries and bonds or the stern and he says, you know, everybody will run into that and then they'll run into bonds and then they run into cash and You know, that's the next thing that we're looking for But I always liked that it was a good analogy But the rest of his stuff was Man the ebola of trading I'm trying to remember if anybody I could remember as well that was wrong as long as him And it was a Joe bad apaglia Who for almost three and a half years? Said to buy and literally decided to go short on the day that the market bottom I think in 2003 in March, I'm not mistaken Maybe it was in May, but I just remember him saying that it was it was it was the end it was nigh and We were going to zero After being bullish for three years when the market did nothing but go straight down and Yeah, I bought that day just on him going short I thought that there couldn't be a better indicator and Joe Pat apaglia He died of a heart attack shortly after that yeah eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight And of course you can email me. I think we have a few more coming in Find them here Yep more here The question is do we need to have a lot of negative waves and hey, we'll send you to the weekend for Something that makes here yet because of course you know Nothing lasts forever in the market if it's things are bad. They'll turn around and go higher and if things are good They'll go lower But there's nobody like oddball to set you straight Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change? Always with the negative waves more reality always with the negative waves As I said earlier, I think we're looking for a little positivity next week And I think you know just the kind of washout you have here on Friday generally leads to a skittish Low where no one can believe that a Bottom and you may get a handful of days you may get all the way to Christmas I'm playing in a different pond Seems to be fine and ignoring the market Check out the newsletter But they leave that and of course a lot of buying things at the TI today We'll be back in a minute Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument You have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at TFNN You'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV Live every market day from 8 30 a.m. To 4 p.m. Eastern for free Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make The right moves with your money watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor You were born to be TFNN educating investors You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts You might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices Selective stocks and commodities Subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman Creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman wave the Chapman wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns Finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied Let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up TFNN.com educating investors Are you looking for secured investment which pays you on a monthly basis the target first mortgage program may be the program for you The best rate on a five-year CD in the country right now according to bankrate.com is paying 1% per year or $1,000 per 100,000 dollars invested the target first mortgage program pays 7% per year paid monthly on secured high value billable properties in st. 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That's 877-518-9190 Catch Tom O'Brien professional trader and educator founder of TFNN also a special guest on CNBC Tom will bisect and dissect the markets the Tom O'Brien Joe next on TFNN And as we get back as we get back to wrapping up the weekend I'm in some stocks that are doing well actually options well one option one stock, but they're up on the day, so living Living is easy here, but I avoided the big fight today But you know what I think you're probably got enough to burn it out for just at least a little while if not till Christmas We need to have we've got it really what is set up as a huge consolidation in this area Much more likely that this burns itself out and restarts maybe on January 1st than anything else the generally the bad thing about being short making a lot of money as you continue to be short and and Even in a down market generally the markets only going down about one fourth of the time and it's going up three fourths of the time So either you need to have a long Time horizon or be able to sit on your hands very easily and see a lot of those gains given back and a lot of times given back in a matter of minutes after days of going lower So I would say not only sell when you can but cover when you can and It depends on what you're at But I wouldn't get too easy with thinking that markets is going to continue flushing lower They were going to be especially in a bear market rips of biblical proportions And those are not the ones you want to be short in so don't you know don't be greedy That's probably the worst part of being in a bear market is you get greedy and you give a lot of back Try to keep as much as possible. Have a great weekend. I'll see you Monday same pet time And yeah cover when you can