 Ynw'n gweithio'n gwneud i chi i ddim yn dweud i'w ddiolch. Mae'n gweithio'n gwneud i'w ddiolch. Mae'n gweld i'r Pique Oil FPh 1 o'r 205 a'r gwneud hynny'n gweithio. Felly, yn y gallu'n gyfnodd Cymru, mae'n ddiweddio'n gweithio'n gweithio'n 205, mae'r cychwyn i'n gwneud i chi, ac mae'n gwneud i chi'n gwneud i chi, mae'n gwneud i chi'n gwneud i chi. Rwy'n gobeithio gweithio'r ddweud yn twfynol. Mae'r cwaith hon oeddwn i'w ddweud y mynedd yw'r cyffordd hynny yn ddwylo'r prif erioed. Mae'r cyffordd hynny'n ddweud o'r cyffordd sy'n meddwl ar wahanol sydd gweithio'r cyffordd hefyd yn ei wneud. Yn dweud yn ddechrau ddechrau'r bobl, ac nad ymarfer yn ddechrau'r bobl, ddim yn ddau ar y ddechrau ar gyfer gyllidau sydd gyfliadau, ond mae Egypt yn arweinyddol yma yn ymgyrch chi'n gwiswm ymlaen, yn ymlaen i Uzbekistau yn ymlaen i wasgwyd i'n gwiswm ymlaen, ymlaen i Turkmenistau i'n gwiswm. Mae argyntau'n gystafellydd yn ymlaen i ddechrau'r bobl i'n gwiswm ymlaen, Fel Wreppsall, across Wales we know is in trouble, Malaysia could be in trouble and Syria certainly in trouble. So the oil is approximate cost of their. Now if we just take the major North Sea producers we find that collectively their consumption, the red line has been absolutely flat going nowhere, but their production has been falling pretty steadily. As a result where, as they were offering the world 14 million barrels a day of of exports at the start of the decade we're already down to one and a half and falling now this this is important because when an exporting country goes from exporting to importing the imports are a charge on the world system if you like and the people who aren't getting the exports that are no longer there is also a charge on the world system so as the number of exporters net exporters goes down you've got more and more demand on the smaller and smaller pie and consequently the price goes up pretty rapidly now this is this is production the industry is bedevilled by different definitions basically the blue line is everything that burns and can be used more or less as a foil substitute and the green line is is crude and lease condensate which as you see has been on absolutely flat plateau since 2005 is quite incorrectly predicted this is the stuff that goes into refineries if you haven't got any more of this stuff you can't have any more refineries so if you build a refinery in china you're going to have to close one in europe with the united states or let throughputs go down to quite unprofitable levels the things that have been going up with the in jails of the biofuels we won't worry about it very much global consumption tends to tip down after big crisis we're seeing some rather strange adjustments coming in and some of these actually anti-date the the problem these are all us figures because the us is much better at identifying this this is a terrifying one that in 2006 us disposed of Lincoln peaks there's declined since the number of vehicles on the road as that seems to have stabilised for the last four or five years the real GDP has fallen so we're getting consequences of peak oil already or this this part of peak oil now this is what prices have done over the last since 2000 and we've now got a reasonable explanation for every bit of this the early part the price simply hunts around supplies essentially adequate to people's requirements the price stays at 25 dollars or under we then run out of in this case we ran out of popex that has to be at the time around there and we moved on to this tightening trend it's quite a solid trend this bit was associated with Saudi offering to put a lot of oil on the market and then not putting it on then this bit was because we went on believing that we could just pay higher prices and we didn't need to adapt and of course there was very incremental supply so eventually the thing went bang it's worth remembering that the only people who buy crude oil are refiners they buy it in the expectation of making a profit now a lot of nonsense is talked about futures markets and speculators and the rest of it they are essentially doing the equivalent of backing the 330 at new market backing the 330 at new market doesn't alter the outcome at the race or not normally it may it may however alter the degree of sentiment if futures markets are very strong the refiners may feel they've really got to get hold of that crude they may fit it up higher than it might be so there may be 10 or 20 dollars of speculation right in that cap there then we got into a strange mexican standoff where there was too much oil on the market opec didn't want to cut back the oil companies didn't want to cut back they they stood eyeballing each other the price basically went down to the marginal cost of canadian tar sand production they did actually turn anything off because opec blinked opec then started output cuts price started recovering and in no time it was back onto this typing trend we're now in this sort of danger zone where we're fairly sure that if prices get much above this our economies have real problems we know if we can get it back the other side they start firing again we've got this strange split between us and european prices and so so that's that's where we are at this point now this i think is a key point if we take the period since 2005 when things started getting difficult we see that was huge demand increase outside europe and north america a rather limited supply increment less than half the demand from this lot so the only way supply and demand could balance is by north america and europe actually reducing their consumption so we've literally passed supply from the high per capita users to the lower per capita users now whether this can go on or how far it can go on we don't know now pursuing that just shows the oil companies peak that just shows that opec doesn't have much of their capacity that shows the linkage to prices and recessions that's sort of an idea of the dependence of barriers but if we want that you will probably heard quite a lot recently about how american demand is falling and how its production is increasing well people have been looking at a very narrow piece of that chart and drawing very excitable conclusions about how the world is saved if we actually look over a longer period yes after a rather strange mid decade bubble american demand has come down it's actually lower than it was at the start of the decade but not a lot and production is a little bit higher than it was at the start of the decade so good news but not that good news now if we do a simple exercise we take treat south america's niland and we say what's the collective demand of all the south american countries what's the collective production of the south american countries and therefore what have they got left for the rest of us and the answer is this that their demand has been increasing faster production has been increasing so the availability net exports have been going down and pretty solid line no immediate sign that's about to change if we look at the middle east much bigger and much more important obviously enough but we see the same thing we see a strong growth in their internal consumption i've just aggregated the whole middle east together production has actually gone up but their available exports are actually below where they were in mid decade and if you look at south arabia the mighty south arabia it increased production by a million barrels a day last year it increased it further going into this year but its net exports are still lower than they were in 2005 now that's a quite staggering idea i've done the same treating africa and niland the same thing obviously we had a big fall off in 2011 with libia and sudan not producing but you're again you're getting a similar pattern so even if we restore libia which you will more or less have it's likely that we have net exports that are smaller than they were in mid decade so have we got any good news well it appears that the central asia and russia demand is pretty flat a little bit of increment at the end they've been going up pretty steadily but there's some evidence that this is sort of starting to flatten out and that that also starts to look slightly discouraging so economics works but not necessarily how we how we think it might or how how we hope it might the rest of the people are involved in sophisticated modelling to try and understand how how we've had up i'm just here to pose a few of the questions and so that's what i've done a my own rather limited modelling which just looks at the new projects coming on stream suggests that yes we notionally have a degree of spare capacity a degree of slack up to about 215 to 16 and then on likely demand trends it it will will disappear so then you'll have nothing on the left hand side in terms of increment and any demand will have to be met by rearrangement of who gets it this is sufficiently small that one geopolitical upheaval could could remove it so so the this point can easily move back to there at this point i'll thank you very much for attention and hopefully later i'll answer the question