 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Seven different playoff games across the NBA and the NHL for tonight. We are here to break down every Single one of them breaking down traditional markets breaking down props and getting you ready Which should be a fun night in the NBA and then any NHL I talking to of course Tom the Vecchio Welcome on into covering the spread. That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire Joined here as mentioned by Tom Vecchio checking out on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom Tom you mentioned coming in that your Islanders your Rangers. Sorry, whoo my bad. Your Rangers The biggest sin the Rangers got a win last night. So you are flying high. I feel like I don't need to ask you How you're doing today, but I guess I will how you doing? I'm doing great Yeah, big win for the Rangers basically in dominating fashion from start to finish over the Devils I'm not taking anything for granted as now. It's only one game. There's a lot more to come and yeah I'm feeling pretty good today. I'm ready to go. How you feeling about the series overall? If it's anything like game one the Rangers set the tone pretty early that they are the far more experienced team in While the Devils are supremely talented on offense. They are very young very inexperienced and maybe not ready for playoff intensity Yeah, well, we're not talk Rangers today. We'll talk Islanders though We will loop them in at some point later on today four games in the NHL three in the NBA will break down all that action Coming up in just a bit But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts more NBA Discussion coming up tomorrow will have awesome UFC as well the Austin Swain will talk some NASCAR Hopefully some formula one as well all coming up here later on this week So make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and while you're there like what you hear We must say five-star rating as well The NBA playoffs are here and you can get in on the action right from first tip with Fandall right now all customers All customers not just new ones can get a no-sweat same-game parlay every weekend when you bet the NBA playoffs That's right. 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I believe it was they won that game 96 to 85 whatever was Tyrese Maxey is a good player. He's someone I'm high on long term, but ultimately You know, he's third or fourth when it comes to offensive usage behind and be hard and you know He's third or fourth depending on what Tobias Harris looks like on a nightly basis. He's scoring a third of the team's points With a team with Embiid and hard and that's not gonna happen every night Tyrese Maxey had the hot hand So I don't want to overreact and say okay now I love all these Tyrese Maxey props because he's he had this amazing game He's like well, he's still not just the primary guy for them So I want to look at this in context and say okay Yeah, he had a great game Embiid also had a very quiet game Relatively speaking for his standards just because Maxey was so hot So I don't want to overreact to what I saw and frankly When it when big games like this happen I almost want to side with you under 100% of the time the next game Yeah, and I want to adjust like essentially projections down You know 10% for that player because if the line is gonna be inflated because it's steaming up Because everyone's betting the over, you know, I would that closing line value could be immense Are there spots where you will react like you'll see The way matchups blend together. Are there situations where you do want to be pretty reactive? And I think this the perfect example is probably this playoff is with the injuries that we've seen You know John Moran's questionable someone like Tyler hero for Miami He broke his hand. He's done So when someone like Max stress steps up for the heat Okay, now he has to play a role like he's he was okay during the regular season Just a role play but now I want to be actively on board with him because the injuries because he actually does have to shoot more So it's not just a player playing well It's like, okay We have to factor in playing well and with the additional playing time do the change in rotation Right, exactly. So you mentioned John Moran. Let's dive into the first game here for tonight That is the Lakers at the Grizzlies right now the Lakers one point favorites total is 227 in Moran Still in question. I think we've seen throughout the past couple years where the Grizzlies numbers with him without Moran Not as drastic as you may expect, but that is a big thing for player props So when you look at this game right now Tom, what do you see for Grizzlies and Lakers? The first thing would be siding with the under as I'm gonna be continuously taking throughout the playoffs and basically both sports You know, especially if Moran is out like you said the difference isn't that big for their You know offense overall, they're still a very effective Defense they were you know in top five or top three in the league when it comes to defensive efficiency Jaren Jackson just one defensive player of the year Frankly, I think that if they're without Moran, they're probably not going to try and push the pace too much And while they still have some good scores someone like Desmond Bain It's probably not going to be in their best interest to get into a track me back and forth with the Lakers Who are at full health all things considered so I would side with the under on that and then when it comes to player props Everyone's going to be jumping on Desmond Bain because he's a great shooter. He can knock down a lot of shots from downtown You know, especially if John Moran's is out he becomes a focal point of their offense But I think that number is too high as of now that Desmond Bain's up at 23 and a half points And that is not a spot and we have to remember That John Moran is still questionable. So if Moran were to play when you take the over on Desmond Bain That is not a spot that I like So you could wait and maybe his line drops But as of now, it's the under in the game and it's under on Desmond Bain 23 and a half points I know it's tough to get a read on this stuff because The Moran injury is pretty fresh. We haven't gotten a ton of report. We've got reporting on it But not like definitive. Hey leaning towards playing lean towards not playing Do you have a read on that a lean on whether he'll be able to go or not? No, the the latest report from Sean Turani is just saying that it there was no Structural damage or whatever it was in his hand and it's still up in the air. So I haven't seen more than that You know, I would like to think that if he's able to go at 75% it's the playoffs. He's gonna be out there You know that that does worry me about his effectiveness. Correct. I would be concerned about him You know diving for every rebound or whatever it might be so that could interest me in some unders under in PRA that type of stuff Maybe he tries to play more of a facilitator role because he can't shoot He doesn't have full strength in his hand like whatever that might be I would look to unders on rebounds and overs on assist props. Okay, so check out Moran props once this there up Maybe speculating around whether he'll be fully healthy But for right now it does sound like there is value on Bain under 23 and a half points minus 1 15 and the under for the game at 227 second game for tonight is the heat in the box This spread is six and a half in large part because Yanis and Tatecumpo Listen as doubtful for right now. The total is 219 and a half So the Yanis thing is a big thing you mentioned hero as well now playing for the heat So some some balls up in the air here, Tom. What are you seeing in this game as a result of those fluctuations? I think the heat have a lot of value right now, especially at six and a half Especially what they showed in game one. We know how good the heat are defensively. They play super slow I think that this is kind of the matchup that they would want where they want to kind of slow things down Turn it into a bit of a scrum, you know make things less free-flowing It's tough to read on what the box could potentially Look to do on offense. Do they want to try and play their style, which is you know getting a lot of three-point shots up Having some good offensive flow the player that I'm most interested in when it comes to the box is Bobby Portis And he's not listed on anything because we see a very large role for Bobby Portis when it tends to compose out of lineup He may not be in the starting lineup, but he will 100% be the sixth man off the bench for the box We could see Javon Carter in the starting lineup for the box now We will see a big increase in usage for both Chris Middleton and Drew Holiday when it tends to go blows off the court There's nothing new we can literally look back over multiple seasons sample size To see that both of these players have a lot of offensive usage when it tends to go blows off the court Bobby Portis leads the team in rebounding rate when a tentacumpo is not on the court He doesn't have any props listed You know that Bobby Portis was obviously a big part of their championship run He could step out and knock down the three So I love Bobby Portis PRA points rebounds none of its listed That's the issue because a tentacumpo technically still listed as doubtful not ruled out So my favorite prop as now would be Brooke Lopez Over six and a half rebounds and minus 128 and I think this goes in line with kind of my theory of the game which would be the heater going to slow things down and they kind of want to like I You know hinder the buck's offense in any way They want to kind of like muck it up and make it a little bit of a dirty game And that means a lot of missed shots a lot of tough shots and Lopez over six and a half with no Yanis potentially he has to be a primary rebounder for them. I know it's tough to set your own line But going back to Portis What kind of ballpark are you looking at for the PRA bet where you balk where you're like, okay? They fully account for this. They got me. I'm out. You know, what number is too high for you for PRA? I Know it's this tough. I'm putting you right in there. Yeah, um, I would expect it to be let's see 25 like somewhere like high mid to high 20 is probably where I respect it to be Yeah, if it crossed 30, sure, I probably wouldn't be interested. Okay, if we could get 20 26 to I would say 30 and a half. I wouldn't go to 31 So like 30 and a half to 26 is where I'm guessing. Okay, so check out the Bobby Portis PRA bets once they're up See what those are whether he's in the lineup or not the starting lineup or not something like Tom is in on Portis But if he creeps into the 30s, then it sounds like we are out on those Portis numbers Final game of tonight is the timber walls and the nuggets and game number one Nuggets blew the walls out of the water spread here is eight and a half total is two twenty three and a half What do you see in this final game Tom? This is probably the hardest game on the slate. I think Game one was a combination of two things one the timber rolls are just coming off of the play-in series You know playing two games in three days and the nuggets are fully rested And they're they're just waiting at home and then the second thing would be the nuggets are just a better team They're the number one seed for a reason and that's what it comes down to And ultimately I think the scheme is very tough to read because If we see the nuggets come out and just perform as they are capable of despite some of their inconsistency to end the season They're just a better team and seeing them cover eight and a half points Would not be a surprise But also the the timber rolls like desperation factor is obviously there and ultimately I think this game is a stay away You know you could tell me that the nuggets go out there and do what they did last In game one and are super efficient and they win this game by 15 plus points And maybe that does lean towards some unders on some players because they don't have to You know put a full game of worth of effort or whatever might be I just don't have a true read on it So I like the other games much more because despite some of the injury concerns. We actually can Factor in like more amp being out. Okay, that means ties Jones is a starting point car You know when the teticubos out hordes steps into a bigger role We just don't have a lot of that information and the nuggets I think are just ultimately going to win the series like four to one Right and the tough thing here is on one hand the blowout risk should be lower because it's the playoffs tighter games Etc. But also and you'd think that okay every game matters so much They'll be in there for all four quarters regardless, but also they got to play ahead for the next game Like if you're down 28 in the fourth quarter or up 28 in the fourth quarter you want to save your guys for game three So the blowout risk although a different dynamic than what it is during the regular season still very present here too And I think the spread eight and a half Kind of does reflect that of this thing could get kind of gross and we want to be wary of that Right and if you are on board with that Uh overall mindset the answer would be under on anthony edwards points under on carlton in town Those sorts of things just because that would play into the nuggets covering the spread Timberwolves not putting out their starter so they can be fresh for game three I'm putting out their starters in the fourth quarter so they would be you know ready for game three Right, so that one something to stay away, but still some good stuff in the other two games on the wednesday night slate So should be a fun night across the nba, but tom we have even more games in the nhl So let's flip over there and talk about the four game slate in the nhl Let's begin things off with the more traditional markets when you look at those tom across these four games Which should those stand out to you? I mean, I love all unders literally every under I could be on board with obviously there's varying degrees of uh juice on each on each bet initially under on boston Florida and then la edmonton would be my favorites just because the lines are at six and half and obviously gives you a little bit more leeway compared to five and a half So under on those would be You know my favorites right from the jump just because we get that extra leeway but under five and a half for new york and carolina Is the way things should be playing out as I mentioned, you know, these are good defensive teams as I've said, you know all Year anytime I've been on the show that new york the islanders. They're a good defensive team They're bad on offense carolina. They are elite on defense But minus 144 is a pretty big line, you know for some people So I would say all four unders, but if I have to pick it would be It would be boston and edmonton those two games in that order The boston game boston florida under six and a half is minus 134 the under four The edmonton game is under six and a half minus 114 under four islanders hurricanes as mentioned minus 144 But again value is value. So no, it's five and a half Yeah, five and a half. Sorry five and a half there and then under five and a half for a wild and stars Is minus 120 I didn't mention that one. Are you okay with the under there as well? I am just because again, both teams are awesome on defense um You know that game was rather interesting in game one to one to double overtime the wild one in double overtime Despite the fact that basically the stars dominated them in overtime More shots more shot attempts basically everything you possibly want. They just simply didn't score So dallas is a team that can certainly turn up the offense when needed And like at a certain point like those goals are going to be start coming through You can't take 45 shot attempts and not score like it's it's going to change And that has me slightly worried for this game in particular if we flip back to If we flip back to minnesota and uh, you know the lines at six maybe that's where I have a ton of interest in the under You know and I think this difference between five and half and six or six and a half is massive in the playoffs more than You know at any point in the season, obviously How much does the franchise revenge game factor in there with the stars having stolen? Uh, the franchise minnesota, I feel like that's got to be at least like we're at 10 towards the under right I mean, yeah, I didn't factor in the north stars moving from Minnesota to dallas, but maybe that's more of a factor once they're back in minnesota. Yeah Bring them home stop them there. You know, I like it. I'm into it. Okay So we're liking a lot under a certain night in the nhl For pretty much every single one with the lowest it sounds like the one you're lowest on is the wild stars, right? Yes Okay, perfect. What else is seen in the traditional markets or is that it there? We're talking player props the only spot that I would go and You know, we I've talked to us before it's like we want to maximize value. How do you get the most out of the situation? You know, where can you look on alternative markets? I think it might be with the islanders in regulation. Okay, and their money line is plus 140. It's totally where it should be But plus 210 in regulation is such a big line That I don't think like I think the value's almost too much and it's at least worth a sprinkle So in game one the islanders went over for in the power play And while carillon is great on defense and I've said before the islanders struggle in offense They're not the best offense team over four is just obviously an unsustainable rate for literally any any nhl team Even the docks and the sharks these horrible offenses. They still score So they're bound to have some positive regression And because they're still so strong on defense, they held the canes that two goals Ilya Sorokin is awesome in net for the aisles You just need one normal goal And one power play goal to fall through and they're going to be in a spot to win because they're just always solid on defense As I've said, they're they're like the titans. They establish the run They are team that is they want they want to force teams to play their style Which means it doesn't matter how archaic it may be like they want to play their style And if they do that properly They're going to win the game. It's going to be ugly But I think that the 210 line is just too valuable not to have interest in Yes, that's 210 in the 60 minute money line for the islanders and then their full game money line is plus 140 So a pretty drastic gap there understandably so but it sounds like tom does see value in the 60 minute money line at plus 210 What about player props tom? What do you see in there at the nhl for tonight? So sticking in that same game it would be Brock nelson the second line center for the islanders over two and a half shots It's plus 148. That's a pretty big line. He's the center on the second forward line He's on the first power play You know, ultimately this comes down to a lot of You know some of this desperation factor. They are down 01 they are You know weaker compared to the canes canes with a higher seed So in when I'm like projecting this forward if you look at the game and say, okay A top six forward who plays on the first forward line ended the game with one or two shots They're not doing something right. They're not putting themselves in a spot to win So you know going down to is like a death sentence, especially in the nhl Now the aisles did get matt barzell back in the game But he's up on the first forward line So it does open up some opportunity and frankly when it comes to the second forward line Brock nelson should be the primary shooter for them. He is very good So in line with the aisles needing to turn up the offense and also expecting some positive regression Their power play is not going to go over five over 10 or whatever. They're going to score Again, this line of plus 148 is too big for the role that he plays And you also don't need the positive regression for this market. You just need volume Exactly over two and a half shots plus 148 like you don't need them You don't need the goals to go in you just need the shots there Right, and I don't they don't use right They don't need to score five goals or 10 goals for this to happen Like his role should be an indication of what this should be and you know, frankly I'd play this down probably to like plus 125 Currently plus 148 Brock Nelson over two and a half shots for the islanders and hurricanes game Which other player props are you eyeing over at fan duel tom? It's going to be going with the best player in the world connor mcdavin And it's going to be over three and a half shots It is plus 160 if you can get his alternate market Which are generally posted later in the day On the fandom sportsbook if you can get them for five plus shots That's probably the spot that I would love the most He had no goals. No assists in game one and Like this is not something that's going to be happening too often for mcdavid There they are trying to line match him. I think that's the goal for the kings They have to slow him down in particular, but He can't uh, you know be out there not scoring not performing on offense. He's literally too good So three and a half is fine. There's obviously a lot of juice on that So if you can find his alternate market once they're posted later in the day Five plus is actually going to be my favorite spot What kind of number are you expecting for five plus again? I'm making you set the line here, tom It obviously the juice indicates that there's obviously a good expectation that he will cross it So the juice is not going to or the the line is not going to be massive because of how much juice there is here So it's probably only to be like Plus 120 somewhere around there for five plus. It's not going to be like plus 400 Right, but so like plus 120 plus 130 somewhere around there. That's where I want ultimately rather than three and a half All right So connor mcdavid and the oilers kings game over three and a half shots is minus 160 But check back later on once the alternate markets are up To see what the five plus number would be on mcdavid check out that plus 120 or so tom would like that But then also brock nelson over two and a half shots plus 148 into the islanders game That is all that we have here for today Talking to you tom talking nba and an hl want to thank you as always for singing by breaking down your thoughts on Both of these sports. Congratulations on your rangers win last night. Hockey tom Just coming up all aces so far between knipiak and that Enjoy the hockey. Enjoy the basketball for tonight. We'll talk to you again soon. Thanks for having me Check out tom on twitter at tfs underscore tom and to make sure you check out his work over at number fire I am on twitter at jim saunas j i m s a n n e s We are back once again tomorrow more nba along with some ufc Maybe some nascar as well should be a fun time as always we'll talk to you then good luck with your bets This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network