 The following is a presentation of TFNN, The Power Trading Hour with your host, David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, David White. Welcome all to another excellent edition of Power Trading Hour and well, we've got a market that's down a little bit. As I said yesterday, I was really starting, well actually even the day before and even Friday started seeing signs of weakness in the market. We had kind of a phony bounce on what I thought was a dubious ceasefire news. Everybody thought it was just going to go right back up to the highs. We have had almost zero, but not zero shorts in the market. The usual suspects five or 10 are heavily shorted. Everybody wants to short Nvidia and AMD. We'll get to AMD today, but everybody wants to, there's a handful of them, but 7,000 other stocks that trade with volume, not much. As we continue to take a look at this market, there just isn't a lot of reason to drive it higher. We're going to look at a couple of stocks that look like they could easily close back into the trading ranges they broke out of. These are the leaders that we've been looking at. Stocks kind of like Micron yesterday. You have pretty good earnings, but they fade by the end of the day. There's a lot of stuff going on out here. None of it's really going to make the market better. The market or the market participants, I should say better because it's really what they call the Keen's Beauty contest, which is you're not trying to find the most beautiful girl in the contest and pick her. You're trying to pick the one that everybody else is going to pick. Everybody wants to be the right one. Keen's came up with that beauty contest as the idea behind what you're really doing in the market. You want to pick what everybody else is doing when you're long, and of course, the weak stock when everybody is on the other side of that market. There just wasn't much. The push was ridiculous. There wasn't a volume or near the volume we needed. Almost days, we were five or six billion shares short of what we had here previously. We were up in these areas. There wasn't a lot there, but as I said, I started my first short position I think on Friday or Monday, was a little early with that, back in the ballgame now with it. I've added two additional positions, but my first position is a fairly long call out here that could go into May before we see any meaningful bounce if I am correct. Now I could be wrong, things could change, but pretty much all the stuff that was wrong is just getting wronger. It's not getting any better. Well, we'll talk about a lot of that, 877-927-6648. Email me at path at TFNN.com, and that's kind of it, but let's go here. I forgot to get to something, oh, we did this yesterday. War News is bad, we're inverting cherry, more cowbell, moon, UVA, oh, I forgot to get to this one, I think. I didn't get to Yeti on sale, and Art Graphics. I knew there were a couple of them I wanted to get to. First is, I keep a, since I'm sitting around here all day long, I tend to watch the deal sites, those are websites that show the best deals going on, if I need something or if I'm looking for something, I'll set alarms and they go off. But occasionally I find stuff that's incredibly cheap, let me put it that way, and I'll buy some of the stuff. But one of the things you haven't seen for a very long time, I was talking about boating yesterday, and I was going to talk about this Yeti, because boating is one of these sports where everybody, especially around here, they go off shore 50 miles, they buy these big expensive Yeti coolers, and throw lots of ice in it, and of course they may spend the whole day, or several days out fishing, you know, 25, 50 miles off shore, so they've got to hold that ice, and these things will hold them for five days or so. Great coolers, massively overpriced by at least 50%, you can buy pretty much the identical thing now for that. I always didn't understand how these guys long term were going to hold those margins, but the interesting thing on that one is when I start seeing sales on products that I've never seen sales on, that's it. When you see 30% or 40% off on Yeti on a big cooler, I think that tells you something, and I brought up the whole people selling boats yesterday too, and it was kind of tacked on to that, because that is one of the big places, I think about half their business isn't people at tailgating in the middle of the winter. It's sportsmen, fishermen, people out that are and do need ice to hold for three, four, five days, but this thing, way off the highs, 108, 82, it's almost off 50, it did get down to 50% off, and people just bought it thinking, well, 50% off's got to be good. I know some great jokes, and I just cannot tell them on air, but I'm laughing on the inside. So anyway, as we look at these, that was the first thing. The second one actually is apropos today. We had kind of a hit piece come out from Barclays on Advanced Micro, and you always wonder about when everybody gets all short and they're ready to pull the trigger, that you get the bad news. I always, you know, 50th anniversary of the Godfather this week, the best movie ever made, and when I go to Rotten Tomatoes and find somebody that actually one of the 50 people that reviewed it back then said it was a bad movie, probably the best movie of all time, I want to find that guy. Anyway, I do digress, but in that movie they talk, he's talking about, you know, killing the corrupt police officer, and he goes, hey, we got people in the newspapers right on the payroll, yeah, yeah, we can get them to say something like, hey, a cop got messed up in drugs and got what he deserved. This is Michael before he has to leave town for several years. But I always find that these self-deserving downgrades are generally served right after everybody gets short one of these things. So I'm going to be very interested to see. But yesterday, Intel also did something, and that is they came out with their first video card. It's only in laptops at the moment. But not only AMD, but I heard some wacky talk today from Jim Kramer, we all know who Jim Kramer is. Bring me the head of the false profit, Jim Kramer. Well, they're saying that Intel is going to give up the. Give up the the quarterly dividend and other stuff like that. It's just interesting to see how everybody flips one day to another when it's in their self interest on. We'll be back in a minute. Are you grinding in the market, but seeing little to no return? Or are you a successful trader simply looking to make your job a little easier? Learn to take the path of least resistance with David White's powerful trading newsletter. David White is an accomplished trader whose deep understanding of technology and the markets allows him to consistently find and share winning trades, support and resistance, define the ranges in which stocks trade. By understanding these trading ranges, David White is able to find the path of least resistance. David White's trading newsletter, The Path of Least Resistance, is delivered daily before the markets open to make every trading day an easy win. Visit tfnn.com today and subscribe to David White's ultimate trading newsletter for one hundred and nineteen dollars a month and try all of our newsletters risk free with our 30 day money back guarantee. Take the path of least resistance at TFNN Educating Investors. What's separating you from the most successful men and women on Wall Street? That's right. Information. Having all the information gives us the perspective we need to place the right trades at the right time. 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At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis, and it's not just dry, tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN, Educating Investors. At 1-877-927-6648, internationally at 727-873-7618. As we return, we're down 26 points on the S&P cash. And after the tear up, it seems like 26 points might as well be 260, doesn't it? People just are in shock, a little shock and awe on being down 26 points in a day after being up 50 or 100 on a day. I suspect this is going to be much more of the character for a while, which is we're probably going to have some sharp up days, but a lot more of these middling days. Generally, if you get a lot of volume and a lot of movement very quick, it's over. It's just very tough to sit through those huge days. Same thing on the way up. If it's too hot, it's the three bears with Cinderfella. And she just needs to have the right one and not too cold, not too hot. Just right, that center one. And if you want these things to run for a while and get a trend, this is kind of it. I do kind of like that even down here today, we can't really draw, or I'm not seeing a lot of people draw much in the way of any kind of short interest out here. Again, everybody's probably piling on AMD, but that's one out of 7000 stocks. Granted, it's got a bigger part on it. Other things I wanted to get to was MSFT. This is the one I think is probably most important if this closes back down. You did test a couple of days ago, the previous high that had 46 million shares. You only had 30 million shares at best. Yesterday, you had 28 million shares today. You're down on not a whole lot, but this is the best of the best, right? This is not the other 95% of the market that everybody ignores for the most part. There was a great book called Iceburg Risk that talked about a lot of what people ignored in the market. But they only kind of look at the top 10%, at least to his theory, like the top 10% of the iceberg. The rest is hidden below. But yeah, it's not uncommon to see these generals be a little weak, but the whole market, a whole lot more weak. OK, let's see what we have out here. OK, got that. OK, OK, here's the first thing. Great top call in the market. You can quote me on the radio. Do you think many of these funds used in quarters to orchestrate a short squeeze, which is now likely over? I don't know if they cared so much about a short squeeze. I think they worried more about setting a price. And it's not uncommon that they get there a little early and you get a little sell off before the last day of the month when they're setting these quarterly highs in the market. But they as long as the as long as the unwashed masses get their quarterly statement and it's not too bad, then generally they're not going to issue a sell order. It's your 10 times more likely to have a sell order after a quarterly statement in the next week after they get it. Then you are at any other time. If you're talking about 401 K customers. So generally what they want to do is make that look really good and then sell and sell and sell, distribute, distribute, distribute, which I suspect were probably in that cycle, I think, till May. We'll see if I'm right or wrong here soon enough. But I think it's more than likely I am right. But anyway, yeah, I think this was nothing more than painting the tape and I played it the other day, but I love this ad. It was circa 1999 or 2000 when everybody was in the dot com fever. It's kind of the equivalent of the bit con fever that we have now or the Ethereum. Don't get me started on that. How do you steal five hundred million dollars with a Ethereum? OK, that's why I'm not in that stuff. Anyway, there was a couple of ads. One I liked was the best one I liked was the tow tow truck diver that had bought an island of his own by being on E trade. There were a few other ones. I can't remember the other one was some young guy had to to be a plaything for this older lady. And he had to come in and rub the bunions. But another one out here was a bunch of people in a boiler room and they had this, which is always the same thing, which is what's put some lipstick on this pig was put some lipstick on this pig. So that's this part of the ad. I can't remember the whole thing of it, but I just always remember that ad playing incessantly on CNBC during the dot com bubble and bust. But that's kind of what I look at now, or at least I believe that they're pushing these markets up into the end of the quarter because guess what? In two weeks, they're going to get those 401k things and they're going, well, things don't look that bad. And they're going to sit there and roast the proverbial boiled frog in the 401k. And that's how it's done on Wall Street. Was it E trade, baby? I remember the other one I liked was what's like this candle? They had a kind of a oily tech kid. He was a little poorly dressed. What's his name? I can't remember now. But he'd always go, what's like this candle? They had some really over the top ads back then. You don't get them now because they got sued for so many of them as encouraging gambling, but that's it. In fact, I saw the first ad for similar stuff for brokers from one of the number of personal injury lawyers down here in Florida. So I think they're already gearing up for when the market heads lower and getting ahead of the game and getting those ads out now. But yeah, everybody's always a genius at the top. OK, so we got that. Anyway, hopefully that answers your question there. I'll answer that other one. I'm holding calls for FCX. OK, I'm new to options to start listening to your show. What are your thoughts on this stock? You know, I'm going to say that you're probably looking at a lot of these things topping out for a little while. I, as I said, I'm expecting these probably to head lower. I'm looking for the economy to start shrinking. We just had the president on. Looks like he's double doubling down on less energy production in the United States, not more. If you watch the CBN, which is a Canadian broadcasting network news, which I do occasionally, they are begging to sell a million dollar or a million barrels a day in that space. They can't get a phone answer at the White House. I think that there is a policy to make sure that there isn't much energy available maybe to push a dream of a green energy deal, whatever it is. Maybe we believe in it. All I know is it's going to be a a tsunami of inflation. Having fun trading the markets, but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with, become an apex predator in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den Trading Room only at tfnn.com. The Tiger's Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas. Join the den and surround yourself with the sharpest minds in the trading world. 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We're down 24 points now in the S&P cash, and you're invited to come to the new Tiger's Den trading room on Discord. Whether you have a Mac or a PC, you're equally welcome with their apps, or you can even use their browser version of it and come on in. But you probably want to get at least one of the apps. And of course, you can use it on your phone too. So pretty cool. Anyway, they're showing the best of the baby ads from eTrade and some of these other companies. But dances with wolves are good money, a good movie. I'm just saying arguably that Godfather was the best movie ever made, even if it was the second best movie or third. Who pans that movie? And someone did on Rotten Tomatoes. A big back in 1972, a critic panned that movie. I do not know. Oh, we found the ad. We'll have to take a look at it here. Let me see. Oh, it's Stuart. I'm trying to remember his name. Thanks. I'll try to cut that up and see it. But Stuart had all these light, these candles ads, but they're good to watch and remember. OK, so other things going on out here. Thanks, Pete. And repeat. Anyway, not a big fan of being in the metals. Like I said, I suspect inflation is going up. Economy is headed lower. And I don't think there's a lot happening. The one thing that could change this market overnight is if we change the policy on energy. But like I said, I don't see a hint. In fact, I see more doubling down on a policy of less domestic energy production no matter what they say. Remember, these are all politicians. But they just have a worldview. And I don't think it matches with reality. But they would say I'm as equally as stupid. So we'll leave that to scholars and other folks. But to me, I don't think there's any choice in the matter. Higher energy prices, less energy, is going to lead to massive inflation. It's not going to go away. And today's response with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is just to get a few politicians off their back for the moment and maybe slightly lower gas prices. But it doesn't solve anything. It only does is push it down the line. But we've got a lot of people trying to talk the current administration into changing their policies, even people from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, really telling them that they're missing the boat, trying to push them in the right direction they think of more energy. But it's very hard for me to see, because generally politicians, the first job of them is to get reelected. And the number one thing that can kill that are gasoline prices, because people look at that every few days. They pay it. It's not like the credit card at the end of the month where they don't think about it all month. They hit it once or twice a week. And especially people in rural areas, maybe more. So it is one of those things that really changes the zeitgeist politically. So generally, you want to have little fuel prices when elections come around if you want to get it reelected. So there's a little bit of panacea today. That panacea could be gone in 45 days. There's not that much oil in the strategic petroleum reserve. What it does do is get rid of the prices right at the moment and take a little bit of the edge off. But I don't think many people are going to know. They know in 60 days that's it. So if it does go down, maybe you just buy some more oil. Because you know, unless they change their mind, it's going higher in 60 days. 877-927-6648. Email me at pathtfnn.com. OK. Pretend to extend. Da-da-da. OK. OK. Eh, maybe, maybe not. I wouldn't bet on the war being over in 60 days. It's going to take a long time to drag people to the, to any kind of agreement. And then, will they start letting Russia start selling oil like nothing happened? Interesting idea. I do not know the answer to that, by the way. OK. Other questions out here? Um, if anything drastically changed about oil production, well, certainly that would be next year. So I don't see anything, like I said. Everybody's doubling down on the current energy policy. And we've seen what that has brought us. So if you're betting, that's a good thing. If you like that, think it's a great thing. That's great. But in the world of higher and lower, it's only going to make energy prices higher. Take a quick look at NVIDIA. N-V-D-A. OK. This had a nice day. It had good earnings. I don't know what else you could say about it, but it did have good earnings. It had that good day that we were talking about where they released their products. And this may be another reason to actually think that NVIDIA does better. But it's probably going to do better at the cost of Intel, not AMD. That's why I thought that it was kind of interesting to see the herd of folks all turn on AMD on a single day. I'm just assuming they all got short in plan weeks in advance. Because generally this thing, it just doesn't happen organically. They're all probably having cocktails somewhere and think, well, it's kind of like trading places where they'll just bet a dollar or something. But in this case, they're probably going to make enough money to buy them another hamper's home. But would it have gone down probably anyway? They generally don't try to do things like go against the grain to the market in the first place. But they will do something like buy a ton of puts and then come out with this the next day and the puts are for Friday and clean house. So yeah. But as it gone, has any of these, talking about AMD and showing Intel, let's go back to AMD. Okay. I mean, you're back to 110. I think I was already saying this is the weakest of the two of AMD and Nvidia. And I was looking for a retrace to 100 anyway. I think they just made a lot of cash by all coming out with our place downgrade, which is probably a little over that. We'll be back in a minute. 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You had 100 million shares on what should have been a breakout. You got no follow-through the next day or two. So you had basically 10% more volume than the January 9th high. You're right now at the exact same price as that high, 176-65. So if this closes back lower, I expect this to hold up better than a lot. But I think it's still problematic to see even the generals not being able to clean house as they go higher. The biggest problem I have with Apple, not only do they have a lot of cash, as they have a lot of people shorting it, at least in their day. And you short the week, you don't short the strongest. And so it may hold up better than the rest, Microsoft, but I'm not a big fan of it. NFLX, let's look at the other usual suspects out here. As we said, Netflix yesterday, and it's not doing anything down like volume, probably the best thing you can say about it. Overall, the volume today is about equal with yesterday's. And again, the first couple of days off the highs or lows don't tend to be off of incredible long-term, don't tend to have lots of volume either way. I can remember the lows, and I want to say 2002 and March. Maybe it was 675. Maybe it was later. I can't remember right now, but somehow 675 sticks in my head for the low of 2003. And it went up to 1,000 on the S&P before any volume came in. Because generally at highs and long-term lows, volume is a little different. They do not ever believe it. And that's what makes such great highs and lows in the market. And that is you get everybody on the one side. They've made a lot of money on the high side or thrown their stocks away at the very low. And then the market turns. And they can't buy if it's low and they can't sell if it's at highs. So that tends to be one of those things. We're off, if that's correct. Well, let me update it just to make sure. And we're off 26 points on the S&P cash. Okay. So anyway, there's Netflix. Take a look at Amazon. And then we'll look at Metamucil here in a minute. You're actually getting a break below the 3x3 displaced moving average on Amazon. It's another one of these stocks that probably should be the strongest in the market. I'm going to assume that the bigger problem out here is problems with China supplying product, i.e. supply chain disruption, which I forgot what the percentage of products that they sell come from China, but it's extremely high. So that could be still it. Okay. Let's see what else is out here that is interesting. A question about CCJ. As I said, it's hard to think that anything in energy is a bad play these days unless we change our policy here in the United States. And I don't think that's a high probability. I think it's probably a fairly low probability that we actually truly encourage more drilling and more production. So what do we have? You got a nice move out here. You just don't have any volume. It may be the best house in a bad neighborhood, and one of the reasons why it'd probably be out of things that are probably fairly good like FCX and probably lean more to the walking dead stocks, things where the apocalypse is coming. I'm not expecting it to be that bad, but I do think that a lot of people are going to think it's that bad. We had some short pullbacks. They've had a very easy opportunity to sell. And generally on the other side of this is just continue selling if this is a top, is continual selling, but it is the frog boiling type. That is, you go down a little bit, a little bit, a little bit, a little bit, and then everybody's kind of stuck, kind of hung out like rats on a ship, but they have not figured out it's time to leave. Anyway, Comico, nice one probably outperforms the market. I suspect if we do head lower, gold does better than silver. Comico does probably as good as the rest of the energy sector. But that's it. Okay, what do we have out here? Okay, quick look at Tesla. And what do I know about lithium sulfur batteries? There are people out here talking up EVs on lithium sulfur batteries instead of lithium ion batteries. There's a working lithium-sodium battery, lithium sulfur battery that has twice the energy density of what Tesla is selling today. So it actually be an increase. It's a little bit more weight for the same volume. So you're not getting quite twice as much for the same weight, but it's good. It's not bad. I think it's maybe 10% or 15% more heavy. The problem is that why they can make one battery or maybe even 10 batteries or maybe even enough for a single car, they rely on a mesh to keep the chemicals from one side of the battery meshing with the other ones. And they're talking about a very nice graphene version of this. The problem is that there are a bunch of companies that all have individual stuff working. They just haven't worked out the ability to make graphene in the kind of volume and at the price point that would be better than what you have now with the lithium ions. So maybe that replaces it. I don't know when it would, but the hurdle is to make high quality graphene for a filter to go between the positive and negative sides of the chemistry in the battery. It does work. Everybody likes it. Just can you build it and build it in volume? They can build a handful so far. They just don't know if they can build a lot and it's going to take a lot. It's been what, 10 years since graphene really became a household name. I think it was invented in 2005, 2012, I want to say. The inventors got the Nobel Prize for the most inventing stuff. Everybody knows it's great. But I'll go back to the example of transistors. The first one was 1926. It was till 1952 before the commercialization and mass production first started. 877-927-6648. And that's it. We'll be back in a minute. 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Tom will bisect and dissect the markets. The Tom O'Brien Show, next on TFNN. Anyway, the question was on Tesla and whether or not these batteries would make a big difference. Today's going sideways out here. My guess is they're going to try to expire this thing right at $1,100 and fry a bunch of people that were short because they're always short. Tesla, at least in the options. So now I think if they're going to do their darnedest to make sure this expires at $1,100 tomorrow. So I didn't like much about the chances of this doing much higher, but at the same time I think much about it going lower after the news. In the split a lot of these guys are dyed in the wool cult members and there's nothing worse than trading a cult stock and not believing in the cult for the first 95% of it. The last 5% of course is Enron. Anyway, what else do we have out here? Oh, SMHs for the end of the day out here. Production numbers. I know they don't have parts for seats. They're missing chips for a bunch of stuff. So maybe they will miss their production numbers, but I think they're delivering it and just saying that the seats will be adjustable at a later date. Just like Ford is doing the same thing with various parts. You can have your car and we'll give you the other part when it becomes available. SMHs, when it comes in. You did break the 3x3 today. Volume, we're going to have to wait until the end of the day. It's a little light now, but you get 30% of the volume in the last hour generally. So we'll have to wait on that. Anyway, tomorrow I think it's going to be a big day. Don't be a fool when you wake up in the morning. Question everything. So when you can, not when you have to. We'll see you here tomorrow.