 Hi, my name is Liam Rowe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180 comm welcome to this week's applying demand forex technical Analysis if you're new welcome, and if you're returning welcome back And I hope that you find the supply and demand technical analysis as well as a fundamental analysis Useful don't forget to like subscribe share and if you have any questions Send them in the comment section below if you're watching this on YouTube Well, you can email me at info at trading 180 comm and I'll get back to you as soon as possible. So Starting off as we always do on the fundamentals fundamental analysis and risk sentiment In the week ahead We have central banks in the US and the UK and Japan will be deciding on monetary policy In the coming week and other important releases include US jobs report. It's going to be important trade balance personal income and outlays I say manufacturing PMI is that's important for inflation UK Consumer confidence market PMI's euros on second quarter GDP growth. That's going to be another important one inflation rate also very important Business survey Japan consumer confidence retail sales industrial production China PMI and Manufacturing PMI's again as crucial for inflation and Australia's second court inflation rate So a lot of important data coming out This week from a to catch up from last week What we had was pretty much the Fed in the lead up to Their potential rate cut and I say potential even though we do have the Fed watch is saying that it is a hundred percent priced in and ease cut 78% of financial institutions think that it's going to be a quarter point cut. Whereas 21.4 percent believe there's going to be a point five percent cut The data for the GDP second quarter was actually better than expected Right, so or less worse basically The figure would come up. I think it was 2.1 So, yeah, so the US Fed expected to prolong the party with a cut next week So US economy is spending longest expansion on record But we could external demand and trade tensions are risks to their outlook and also obviously inflation as well So, you know, the US economy is performing solidly Since the end of financial crisis, but I think this is more what they would call an insurance cut Also last week we had, you know, the Euro Mario Draghi Basically signaling future stimulus. So Problem is that all central banks are looking to kind of weaken their currencies and cheaper their currencies to boost economic growth But I think stimulus is worse than a central bank rate cut so Be careful, I would say I'll be be aware of buying really buying the Euro at any point As the European Central Bank is is indicating that there will be some potential stimulus So watch for, you know, the European economy and also what we also have and has just covered as well in the Japanese time Is times is that we have the Bank of Japan deputy governor central bank ready to increase stimulus as well So and all options are on the table. This is from Reuters as well. So Pretty much all central banks apart from probably Canada At the moment and the UK are really signaling that they want to, you know, other cut rates or or enter into some sort of more stimulus and If you're unsure of pretty much what the effect that does happen in the economy, it should The currency I should say What you can do is there is the fundamental analysis course and sentiment analysis course and it goes through You know gross domestic products inflation interest rates and the interest rate cycle inflation interest rates we visited and you know, but nice Say nice, but it's about 14 videos of Basically fundamentals in the core Fundamental principles and what you really need to know about fundamental analysis and how to apply it to your Your technical analysis because this is what really moves the market first anyways Lots of fundamentals coming up this week. So let's get into the technicals and We're gonna start off as we always do on the Dow Jones dollar index Dow Jones from last week we came down into this demand zone and Even though there was a close below. I never, you know, assume that close below is that the level is gone What we did have because of other central banks really kind of weakening and potentially weakening their Currencies even though the dollar is Federal Reserve is we keep trying to weaken theirs is We had pretty much a dollar rally over the five days supply zones Our potential value And obviously when prices are coming up into these supply zones the market didn't see these areas As you know potential value, you know as far as Looking to sell or an expensive area if you know, I mean, it was obviously, you know prices were a bargain in the dollar With dollar Jones Dow Jones dollar index, which is a measure of dollar strength against the major currencies like the pound the euro and the yen and the Australian dollar It's like the the dollar was a great performer. So if you go to the actual Dollar and update the charts. We are now into the highs now. What is going to be the catalyst that makes this potentially? fall Right as we're up into the supply zone if we are going to fall And prices are seen as an expensive Price and traders don't really want to buy up here and demand kind of drives up and supply comes into the market And it could be obviously the the cut from the Federal Reserve. So This potentially is a shorting opportunity if you want to short the dollar I'm always going to be long dollar for the foreseeable future because out of all of the major economies the The the US is doing the best. So if we do get a shorting opportunity You'll be shorting any of the dollar crosses with the Dow Jones dollar index as confirmation that the dollar is getting weaker personally, I'll be looking to You know long the dollar. So I'll be looking for any kind of pullbacks higher highs and then pullbacks into what we would known as Demand before looking at getting long. So anything like that or any any bullish price action basically On the dollar that confirms that I should be buying the dollar So again Short trades probably into this week if you are looking to short the dollar and probably the Fed rate cut announcement may obviously Facilitate that but Looking at buy trades at levels of demand or created demand Next is going to be the The US dollar Japanese yen currency pair and again because we had pretty much a rally in the Dollar overall this week last week, you know, you can see the effect of that and this is pretty much what's happened We've rallied up into this supply zone So looking at dollar yen We can delete Level and that level of supply again, what we're looking at is potential shorts if the Dollar index starts to sell off. We do have an Area of demand right there and we also have another area of Demand into here. So we've got pretty much few levels of demand. We've also got a level where we have Support as well and that's important for the supply and demand order equation Reason-wise because even though we have these levels of demand where are traders whereas there is where is there going to be more? likely to be Demand orders and we need, you know Support and resistance traders to also look at levels and look to enter new trades as well So in this level of demand, which is proof of value as prices made higher highs and higher lows If we do come down into this zone, which would be the 108 round number that'd be Decent buy as we have not only proven value But we also have a technical level where traders would be looking to potentially get long the next one is going to be here So where traders will be looking at support Becoming, you know resistance potentially and then back into support again So again, we have technical traders if prices come down to this 107 To five level as a level to get potentially long right now would be shorts Potentially a bit higher up if you were looking to short the dollar around there Moving on to the dollar Swiss dollar Swiss again this week And no surprise to see dollar rallying taking out that level of supply now. We're into the higher level of supply so the Swiss We can delete that level there And this now becomes a level of demand So what we have is The level of support resistance within that level of demand and Either short the dollar this week in the lead up to potential Fed rate cut and even during the Fed rate cut and also what I would say is is that you know The market is trying to price in a Fed cut as well. So Is it has the market priced in the cut already? So if it has then you may not expect much of much movement to you know, the downside is it's not really going to be a surprise Is it? But let's see what happens with price anyway. I'm again, I'm still long dollar regardless of what the Fed kind of does Until circumstances change But if you do want to get short on the dollar now is the time and then if you look to buy the dollar I'd be buying anywhere around here Probably in the lower end of that demand zone here preferably if we can get a nice Move all the way back down if the dollar starts to sell off. I'll be definitely getting long around here Looking at the dollar CAD the dollar CAD zoom in a little bit Zoom in from last week again strong dollar Prices ended up coming higher into this Higher supply zone taking out that level of supply so We've got CAD And the CAD has been a bit weak And this was due to I think some some sort of I think it was GDP numbers or inflation numbers I think it might have been GDP Quarter on quarter numbers which came out as negative. So that wasn't great for the Canadian dollar this week, but now we've come up into that supply zone touched it putting in a bit of a pinball So if you do want to get short Now it's pretty much the time What I'm gonna do is I'm gonna probably look to clean up this area of demand So that'd be where potentially The the next best buying opportunity in fact we do have some hidden demand right here Right there And for those of you that have taken the course will understand why and then we got A bit of buying opportunity there So we could see prices come down again lower time frame what you would do is go down into something like the 4-hour You know your trading time frame intraday and look for buying opportunities around there Or obviously down at the absolute lows, which is my preferred area to look for Long trades if again if you come for short trades, it'd be here if not if prices break through that supply zone and again supply and demand just as a reminder is seen as potential bargain areas, right and this is because Price when price came here back in the 21st of June is seen as an absolute bargain for the Canadian dollar at that exchange rate Prices sold off so when prices come back to this area You have to say is this seen as a potential Bargain again at that exchange rate for the Canadian dollar So obviously it'd be short if you're short in this pair means that you're buying the CAD Which is the quote currency, you know the US dollar was very expensive here Hence there was no demand there. There was more supply there, right? Same thing was going to try and take first touches of levels So if you do want to be a buyer of the Canadian dollar now is pretty much the chance to look for short trades, especially with the US dollar looking to cut rates decent potential short-term trade if you are trading against the dollar moving on to the New Zealand dollar US dollar and And Yeah, we had a bit of a sell-off into this supply zone right here. Yeah Going to the Chart and updating it So anyone who got short here well done There was a bit of demand here, but not much as the dollar pretty much strengthened But that created a new Supply zone right here So supply so The plan this week potentially we could see You know bit of a move down into that demand zone then a move back up Then that'd be the first area to look for short trades if you're looking to buy the dollar Preferably, you'd probably want prices to really kind of come up to this supply zone here And what I'm going to do is update it Little bit put that there That there as well. I Will Keep All right So what we're looking at is short trades into that 0.67 if you want to get if you want to buy the dollar if you're looking to buy the New Zealand dollar, which has been quite strong as of recent Overall, I'm also looking to be a buyer of the New Zealand dollar, but not against the US dollar at the moment, but You're looking at putting some long trades around here into this top-ended this Demand zone. We also have is a bit of support and resistance within that area as well So just around that sixty zero point six six round number just below. I should say potentially looking at buy trades within that large area of demand again Short trades here preferably probably up to here would be where I'll be looking to get also get short as well Pound dollar pound has literally just been selling off and continues itself. And this is just due to and brexit uncertainty Unfortunately, so You know the dollar you can see it's just been you know going from strength to strength I've Got a decent trade last week didn't take this trade This week I was waiting for prices to kind of do something different But it didn't the setup didn't really occur. So unfortunately missed out on that short trade Let's go to the charts So what do we have pretty much with down into this long-term demand zone from way back in April 2017 And it's probably looking very bearish for the for the British pound again as long as there's a lot of uncertainty Boris Johnson, you know being elected this week, but No deal is still on the table. So as long as there's still no deal potentially on the table I think the pound will continue to sell off Europe I'm willing to do an extension which would please the markets But I think Boris Johnson is in a bit of a catch-22 where he has to kind of force through a No deal brexit potentially, but it depends on what with Parliament managed to block it They already managed to block paroching Parliament Which is one way that Boris Johnson could have you know forced a no deal Brexit So now it you know chances are there might be some sort of general election and again The more uncertainty and the more the can is kicked down the road Actually, the more the can is kicked down the road the better it is I think for for the British pound the more likely it is the pound in the UK is You know to leave with no deal is the further prices will continue to fall So, you know, just be wary if trading the pound. I Think I'm gonna leave things as they are for now Technically we have created a new You know supply zone right here right there Maybe I can lower this a little bit In fact, I will lower this down to down to here And we've got another demand zone potentially right down In this area right there so Long and short of it is this is if you look into if you're looking to buy the pound Based on purely probably on some sort of sentiment play now is pretty much the time you've got some sort of double bottom Formation etc. Now is a is the time but If you are looking to you know Trends continuation where you've got lower highs lower lows lower highs lower lows Just wait for pullbacks into, you know certain areas before looking at potential Short trades you do have a bit of confluence probably around here Right that would be probably the better area this higher area To look for potential shorts But again, just go down into a trading time frame look for any kind of shorts around these areas here before If prices do get back up there Looking at the euro dollar euro dollar this last week Again, we had a level that's been touched once twice and the once levels kind of touch a few times They tend to were tend to break I said that last week and especially with the euro potentially announcing stimulus, you know, you knew pretty much what happened dollar strengthened euro weakened and We're down into this This demand zone which has been touched several times as well But if you're buying the dollar, you're really buying the dollar in an expensive area and I'll explain And if we go to the charts, right? Let's go to the euro dollar. So Yes, stimulus was announced on I think it was the Wednesday But and everyone was kind of expecting prices to really kind of fall away One of the reasons potentially why price didn't fall away was because there were so many people that were getting short So if everyone's short then the best thing to do for the market is to take out, you know liquidity is Is look for stops basically and take out and search for liquidity because if there's not enough You know, there needs to be enough By orders in the market for sell orders and if there's not enough by orders for people to sell Then the market has to look for those by orders. If everyone's going short. Yeah, if anyone's going short, and this is a bit of a potential just a bit of education and Way to look at the market if everyone's getting short, right? Someone's taking the other side of those trades So there needs to be enough by orders in order for the market to go short if you're going short Yeah, and you're pressing sell on your broker then your stop loss, which is above the market is a buy order. Yeah So you zoom down to one hour Everybody would have been short once the announcement came out about Mario Draghi and him adding stimulus. So after an hour or so this nice bearish candle Yeah Would have been where everyone would have been trying to get what short stop losses are placed in obvious places above the market Right here and I was saying in our trading 180 telegram group coaching group I said to just wait. Yeah, do not chase price. We never chase price. We chase value So and I'll get back to value in a sec, but explaining the stop hunt And what happened was is This is in real time Prices took out the stops didn't they? Yeah, so it needs to take out the buy orders He needs to collect the buy orders and then what happened is is traders ended up trying to get long pressing buy to get long Again, if they buy then they can sell at the same time And then it's pretty much everyone's got chopped out and again before this came out I was saying for everyone to just you know to just sit on their hands and wait and wait for proof of value Yeah and proof of value it would have been for the market to sell off at this point in time and then Pull back because you need the market to prove that there is that the dollar is An absolute bargain there and how do you know that the dollar is a bargain if you're trading, you know in real time? You don't you have to wait for the market to prove itself Prices come lower make lower highs lower lows and then wait for a pullback and that would be Where we would look to enter which would be around here Also caveat to that would be the fact that you are actually buying at Loads you're buying what say buying it loads. You are buying the dollar at an expensive area So look at the market you've got Michael of value range Value range tool. Yeah, if you're a buyer of the euro then this looks to be a bargain But that means that the US dollar must be what expensive. Yeah Who buys at highs? All right, who buys at eyes. It's amateur traders traders who don't understand, you know value so when the news came out about stimulus and there's as As triggering as it was to try and get short you had to understand that you were buying At the absolute market high you're buying in an expensive area. You're buying the dollar because if you're Shorting this pair buying the dollar. You're buying the dollar at an absolute high What you want to do is wait for pullback Yeah, either a pullback Which is gonna be into that supply zone there or you need prices to prove That this there is no them there is no more demand here So you need price action to go lower Create a new lower lower lows and then wait for a pullback because again proof of value This is not rally-based drop drop base rally Trading, you know, this is something totally unique and a totally unique way of looking at the market Rally-based drop drop base rally does not take into account value and something that I can teach you and understand Make you understand and you can look at all the free stuff as well as take the trading 180 course as well so We say that have this whipsaw. I know many traders got chopped out and We're still looking to obviously short this pair But not with everybody else not with the herd. Yeah, we look to Trade when we have an edge. There was no really no edge in this trade in this news announcement and So we got sit on our hands wait for a little bit wait for potential pullbacks or proof of value before looking at getting long on the dollar So again Into this week either prices fall away and then you're waiting for a pullback into supply or you're waiting for potential retracement which is what looking to do and Look for short trades there that way you can buy the dollar at a cheaper price Moving on to the euro yen the euro yen this week. It's touched once Potentially again, you know, this is a potential move to the upside But again, why would you be buying the euro if into the week if you understood that they were potentially introducing stimulus And obviously prices did manage to sell off They did come back into now is produced a bit of a supply zone But both currency pairs are looking extremely weak So with two week currencies, it's gonna be very difficult to kind of trade that we want to really trade strength versus weakness With the euro Introducing potential stimulus in the month or the next month or two and the Bank of Japan again going back to the news Looking to also introduce some stimulus Potentially, you know, this was you know, pretty much a choppy market was what was going to be expected or is more unpredictable so going to the charts euro yen we What we happen this week is that a Supply zone was created as we made lower highs lower lows and then prices came back into that supply zone They're looking at actually a sell-off Again, if you are looking to get short right now, this would be the time Into this week, but again, bear in mind that the Japanese yen now may potentially Introduce or signal some sort of stimulus if they do then price could Rally for the euro as the the attended consequence of a stimulus of introducing stimulus is for the Japanese yen to weaken You know in in price and get cheaper in price. So if they do announce stimulus Up we go potentially if not if they signal that they're gonna be on the hold We could see prices sell off and again, those are pretty much your options Moving on to the Aussie dollar Aussie dollar and this was a nice trade this week for many of the traders You know getting short around this area here. I Think it was around the 0.7 I think it was 0.735 level loads of traders You know, we was waiting for this level to kind of break is more of a stop-hunt set up And then prices pretty much fell away. So nice trade this week On the Aussie dollar coming up into that supply zone as well. So I See dollar You can get rid of that and really there's really no kind of supply zone up until we get to Back up into this zone here. So that'd be the new supply zone. This is where we got demand now where we are now We could potentially start to reverse Due to potential profit-taking and this being obviously, you know the dollars Time in the spotlight with the Fed cutting rates. So we could see the markets start to Ease up a little bit What we'd want to see is price if you want to get short is probably price to Create a lower high lower low and then wait for price to come back into this supply zone before looking to get short Otherwise it looks like We're going to You know really kind of have to wait for some sort of pullback into a supply zone and then look for short trades around here I prefer probably this if prices did come back up this high again looking to short this area this put it above this 0.705 half number You know, but let's see what happens profit-taking If you're still in this trade you probably may want to look to you know take profit You know on Monday if you didn't take it on Friday as I do think that prices will end up going higher They could obviously go lower. We have no idea, but in the lead up to the rate cut potentially The dollar may want to what may want to weaken if you are looking to buy the Australian dollar Probably now will be the time or if price came down to the absolute low that'd be a bargain area for the Australian dollar and finally we got the Australian dollar Japanese yen and this week We did have price finally sell off my couple of pin bar Signals if you trade pin bars About three within the past week or so and then prices finally fell away So Where does that leave us this week and we have Price come down into demand zone as demand zone hasn't gone yet I think potentially again if the The Bank of Japan decide that they want to you know introduce stimulus Nice, this would be a nice buy very nice buy You know to the to the upside as they're trying to cheapen their currency What we could see again is maybe in in The lead up to that announcement you could see this level break And if it does then this would be the area to look for potential long trades if you're looking for a short trade There is actually Supply right here as well I'm going to clean this up a little bit. You've got that And Yeah, so those are your areas to look for short trades and again the Japanese yen potentially Not introducing stimulus this week could strengthen the Japanese yen risk off as well If any kind of risk off sentiment comes into the market It does strengthen the yen especially against the Australian dollar and risk of sentiment would be you know Trump trade wars China slowing down Brexit fears, etc. So By trades probably right now Potentially in the lead up to the announcement if not You're looking at buying around this area here and again It all depends on what the Bank of Japan does with stimulus. So that brings us to the end this week don't forget to like subscribe share and Comment any questions I get back to you as soon as possible and guys I hope you have a great trading week and take care