 Hi, my name is Liam Rowe, Covenancy Trader and Trading Coach at Trading180.com and welcome to this week's Supply and Demand Forest Technical Analysis. If you're new, welcome. And if you're returning, welcome back. I do hope that you had a great trading week last week. If you didn't, don't worry. It's okay. It's only one week out of 52. We can always make that back as long as you're managing your risk and going for more than you risk. Again, if you are new, if you look in the description box below you'll find all the currency pairs with chart analysis and links in the description box. And yeah, let's get into the fundamental for this week. So in a week ahead we have the US publishing inflation, the inflation rate data, which is going to be very important, extremely important. And so the preliminary readings of the Michigan Assuming Sentiment retail sales, industrial production, durable goods orders, new home sales and producer prices. So a lot of news for the US, but the main, I think the main thing is really inflation rate because that really decides monetary policy from the Federal Reserve elsewhere. Important releases include UK Monthly GDP. That's another, I'm going to be another important one, China industrial output and retail sales in Japan, Japan interest rate decision. Another important one they're probably expected to hold. But in case there are any shocks then yeah, that will be a major move. Investors will also wait the UK parliamentary vote on Brexit agreement. That's going to be another probably a big announcement as well. I can't remember what date that is, maybe on Tuesday. But that's going to be another big thing. And that will really drive probably sentiment with regards to the pound, not necessarily fundamentals, but definitely sentiment. So with those fundamental and sentiment releases this week, we can now go to the price charts. And if you're unsure on fundamentals, then I have a fundamental analysis course that you can go to again, links in the description box below. And pretty much I break down what fundamental analysis is and the main, I suppose macroeconomic data that you really need to look at and what Forex really is driven by. And I also have a fundamental analysis spreadsheet. Click on that link. It takes you to here and it will give you what my personal opinion is on based on fundamental analysis, which direction I'm really trading. So I'm bullish on the dollar, neutral, slight bearish on the euro, which means I'm going to be selling the euro, dollar, pair, et cetera, et cetera, scroll across and you'll see my ratings and ratings are just basically varying degrees of, you know, I think a strength and weakness. These are the sources, resources I should say, and sentiment analysis resource. And when it was last updated, which is today, night of March. So with that all out the way, let's get into the analysis. So Dow Jones, dollar index, right? And this is a measure of really Dow Jones strength, say Dow Jones, dollar index strength. And against the major currency, so like the pound, the yen and the euro and last week what we had was prices let's zoom in a little bit. We had prices come up into this area. I mean, I wasn't particularly convinced that this supply zone was going to hold. I'm a buyer of the dollar. So I was really waiting for, you know, if any kind of demand zones and then we don't trade the Dow Jones, dollar index, we just look for confirming price action if we're trading any kind of dollar trades. If we see some bullishness on this index, then we know that we should have overall dollar strength on our dollar crosses. So what happened is what happened last week Sunday and in the five days since we've just seen, you know, dollar strength go through this supply zone and really up into another supply zone which is here and we can see what prices have reacted. Probably going to pause for now until the interest rate, say interest rate, but the inflation decision this week and also obviously with Brexit as well. But depending on the macroeconomic data, if we do get good inflation, a decent inflation or above what we are right now, which I think is 1.6, then you're probably going to see, you know, the dollar index increase in strength, which then means that the dollar pairs should also increase in strength and value. So again, let's look at the chart right now on the Dow Jones dollar index. So we've come up into this zone here. Alright, I'm going to probably get rid of that level there and that level there. I'm going to say that level, I'm talking about the support and resistance zones no longer needed, no longer required. There is a bit of potential resistance right here. If we go back it's not necessarily the strongest even though there was last time it kind of held was around this area here. So you had a big rejection, bit of a rejection, then in between it's kind of held slightly, but then again we've rejected off here again. So I'll keep it here for now and then you've got a level just above that and then you've probably got the, if you zoom out you've got a high level, this whole supply zone right here. So the significance of that really is because we want to keep an eye on what other traders are trading. So not everyone trades supply and demand, trade support and resistance. So if traders are entering new trades, not necessarily the Dow Jones dollar index but what it might be, but we're in the supply zone and so you need the confluence of support and resistance traders also entering here which should add to the supply equation. Not saying that it will go down but that's pretty much what we look for. If you're looking to be, so if you're looking to be a seller with a dollar you're looking for some bearish price action on the Dow Jones dollar index before looking to get short. If you're looking to get long then you're probably looking at this area here as an area, it's a demand zone to look to get long. You've also got this area here of support and resistance here. You've got maybe on the top end, probably something like that which again you've got support, support, bit support, resistance, support here. So if prices do come down to this area here and then start to look in some bullish price action, look for bullishness on the pair that you want to trade and the same thing down here. So again just depends on what we see this week with the dollar releases so now moving on to the dollar yen and the dollar yen this week, I'll say last week we did have prices kind of break past this demand zone. It was a previous supply zone and I say it was waiting for prices to really kind of pull back into any kind of demand zone where you have again support, horizontal and diagonal prices have pulled back into this demand zone. Obviously broke through the diagonal support but come down really kind of held here so far. This being a bit of resistance support. We know that demand areas are value so we just need that confidence. So with this being seen, what do we see on the price charts as far as new supply and demand? Well nothing really. I wouldn't say anything really and maybe you want to put something here but with regards to any trade ups you go down into the lower time frame whatever time frame you do trade and then maybe look for some sort of buy trade at the moment. If not then here's going to be really the next level that you're looking for for buying the US dollar. If you're looking to sell the US dollar we do have some supply in this area right here and it's your supply zone. Now is that the strongest area of supply or is that profit taking potentially I think it's just profit taking we don't know for sure let me get rid of this diagonal support trend line. But we don't know for sure whether this is just profit taking or if this is an actual reversal. So I think this week what you'd be looking for if you think that the Japanese yen is going to increase in strength and the dollar is going to get weaker and let's say we push up this week before the inflation release and then the inflation release comes out worse way worse than expected then you're probably looking at a sell trade if prices have come up into the supply zone before the fact if obviously prices don't do anything like that and it continues to go lower then you'll be looking for a pullback into any kind of created supply zones. So for now it's pretty much I would say just a wait and see approach on the dollar right we also have potential Japanese yen strength and this is due to risk off sentiment with the trade wars going on China's economic slow down potentially bregs it as well so money could be flowing into the risk off safe haven currencies like the yen and the Swiss franc. But I think that's about it for supply and demand zones on this currency pair so now looking at the next currency pair which dollar Swiss dollar Swiss this week we had prices bounce off of this demand zone here and then continue to make their way higher. So we took out this supply zone here obviously dollar strength coinciding with the US Dow Jones index strength that you saw this week as well so let's go back to charts so we can delete this and not going to delete this level for now what I am going to do though is put on another demand zone because we do have demand that's taken out some supply very much new highs so this is going to be one of the strongest areas of demand and really the next area at the moment that I'll be looking to potentially buy from so if you are looking to get short at the moment this is a brilliant area to probably look to establish some short positions ahead of what is going on this week so if you believe that the Swiss franc is going to gain in strength and gain in value against the US dollar then now really is the time to look for short trades on a lower time frame if you are waiting for long trades then you will be waiting for a pullback into the top end of this demand zone or this area here this 0.993 area so around parity which is the one area right here you can see you got support resistance on top of this demand zone right here so those are pretty much it areas really for this week and again depending on what happens with you know fundamentally you also got bit of a trend line confluence potentially within that zone right there so again depending on what happens you also got some extra confluence going on in this area for your buy trade now looking at the dollar CAD and dollar CAD last week we had this big you know bullish candle and this was really due to the Canadian dollar I think the GDP coming out you know way below expected and obviously the dollar being the dominant currency only one thing really was going to happen now from a supply zone perspective obviously there wasn't a really value for the Canadian dollar at this price level or at this price level you know prices pretty much you know went straight through so looking at a price chart we can delete this area now excuse me let's get rid of this get rid of that level there as well so what we have at the moment is strong demand now we have really no supply at the moment or there is obviously supply here but it's not a strong area of supply at all we don't know what's going to happen this week if prices are going to continue to go higher so we now we're in a situation where we have to kind of wait for prices to create either strong supply right or if prices are going to continue to go higher then this creates a nice demand zone for us to get long and again if we don't get any demand within this area then we'd have to wait for prices to really come back down all the way down into this demand zone before looking at buy trades or there's another option let's me just go back to this or what you would be looking for is something like this where you see maybe some supply and then you see break higher and then you're going to see prices come back into this demand zone before looking at long so that's how really demand is created and these are the options that I do you know look for on this currency pair so again if you're looking for probably a sell trade now definitely isn't the right time in my opinion this would be the area would be the best area because you can see that we have definitely strong supply in this area so again if you're buying Canadian dollar you have to believe that the Canadian dollar is going to increase in strength or the US dollar is definitely going to get a lot weaker is this a bargain area for the Canadian dollar so this chart hasn't really changed much and we have to wait for prices to really kind of create and confirm what it is that we need to see so moving on now to the New Zealand dollar US dollar so last week we had prices come down into this demand zone and I was saying that if this is really the area here this would be the area this 0.678 to 0.675 area would be looking for potentially you know some sort of reversal if you're looking to buy the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar as we can see prices did manage to put in a bullish candle and that is just a reversal who knows again you have to do your fundamental analysis and understand why the New Zealand dollar is going to get stronger or the US dollar is going to potentially get weaker now we could see obviously some weakness from the inflation reports and other macroeconomic data from the US dollar which would then confirm probably prices going to the outside so let's look at any new demand zones what I'm going to do is because it's actually touched and pierced this bottom demand zone just to clear up the chart a bit I'll delete that I'll also delete this as well so we've touched the bottom of that demand zone and now we're into potential reversal territory if it comes to buying the New Zealand dollar you do have a supply zone right here as well as you made lower lows and a lower high so if you are looking to get short here we go supply zone if you are looking to get short potentially on news then this is going to be the area and again just zoom down into you know a lower time frame so down to my trading time frame is the 4 hour so you be looking for any kind of sell trades and try to trade it down to the low depending on your risk rewards again if you're looking to buy this is going to be your next buy zone around this 0.671 area but just keep in mind that you have touched this area once twice already this is a lower probability type trade but you do have this area of horizontal support diagonal support but you also had it touched created once twice and it's probably going to be the third time as well so from a technical perspective this isn't necessarily the greatest area prices have touched several times here we always want to be buyers of fresh areas of supply and demand right and zones so this would be for example the fresh areas the first touch of the supply zone is what I would call fresh area because we haven't touched it before so this would be probably a sell trade if you were looking at getting short but compared to you know this demand zone which isn't really that fresh doesn't mean that it won't work out but if I am looking to buy this currency pair then it would probably be down into this zone right here this would be more of a fresher area of demand as it hasn't been touched so again if prices do appears through here you would be looking at if we have touched this area once twice this would be the third time I would probably be looking for any kind of area above these touches so somewhere like there around this 0.693 level and above so moving on to the pound dollar now the pound dollar we've sold off a little bit so last week there was you know the area to look to potentially look for short trades and if anyone did I am actually in this trade from up here you know pretty much we are just looking to hold the trade down to really you know probably demand zones or even further depending on what happens with the British vote and also British GDP and obviously dollar data so this week you can see prices you know have really sold off down into this demand zone so if you are looking at the new chart and I am going to get rid of this one is potentially a buy the British pound and it would really be based on sentiment and again it could be based on GDP I don't really expect British UK GDP to really excel as far as be spectacular simply because of the lead up to Brexit what businesses are investing in you know Britain and the UK in lead up to Brexit you know you wouldn't that wouldn't be necessarily the smartest play you know you've seen companies look to I think it's like I think car manufacturers I think maybe something like I think it was Nissan or Honda or something like that we are talking about they are not you know building new plants in the UK not saying it was because of Brexit but you know basically they are not doing it and a lot of other companies have decided to hold fire on investing in the UK because of the uncertainty so I really don't expect the British GDP to come out you know any kind of spectacular numbers in fact I probably expected it to get worse now would it happen we don't know my expectations are my expectations but I am not trying to necessarily predict you know what is going to happen but just my expectations is that so we do get a shock GDP and we get you know the basically the vote and the deal you know to be some deal passes parliament then you could get some you know bullish price action with the British pound to the upside if you're looking to you know get short then you'd be looking at again a move up into this supply zone here before looking to get short if you're looking for prices to probably come up into this area again we've touched this zone probably once twice already so anything below here isn't necessarily the greatest I would probably look for again anything a bit higher then or around this area here this 1.331 area and higher before looking to potentially get short and again if you're looking to buy the pound then this level doesn't hold then this will be your next level to look for buy trades moving on to the euro dollar and the euro dollar this week we've pretty much had a bit of a collapse in you strong language but prices have you know come down and now we're getting we're bouncing really off of this lower demand zone and again just to prove the point that the more times the level of demand or a level of supply is touched the weaker it becomes you know you touch once twice three times this wouldn't quite have to be a third time but it definitely touched the second time alright and then we've kind of broke through again this is a euro sentiment isn't isn't great at the moment they're not doing too well Germany slowing down Italy in recession which is probably being you know kept out of the paper at the moment the papers so let's go to the euro dollar this level delete that delete this demand zone and that is that a supply zone no delete this here so this demand zone here is from long term we've had you know support support resistance support support and then demand you know the last demand bearish candle before prices make a new high is right there in fact what I'm going to do is I'm going to drag this demand zone down to here and then I'm going to add another one right here all this area really is an area of past demand but this is from May 2017 so how strong this is is anybody's guess but we are bouncing off that and there will be traders looking at that level anyway from a value perspective now we could have again due to dollar weakness this could be a great place to buy so you're really buying you know at a bargain area potentially for the euro if the dollar does disappoint this week so you've got plenty of space to the upside to really get if you haven't got in already to get some pips so the next supply zone to really take it to would be right there if you are looking to you know buy on a lower time frame you'll probably be looking at a bit of a pullback before you know looking at any kind of long trades if you are looking to sell which I am I'll be looking for price to come all the way back up to here or for something like this this is what I'll be looking for I'll be looking for a move up then a move down then a move back up into what would be known as you know supply we could look for a basic a move just go straight down and then back up into this area of supply so that's what I'll be looking for this week if I'm looking to buy the dollar either up here or if a new area of supply is created again if you're looking for any kind of demand and buying the euro then now's pretty much the time to look for some entries now we have the euro yen and the euro yen this week we did I did keep this on here this I was going to keep this level of supply on here as it hadn't broken and you can see you know that we did have a bit of a set off and now this is some strong supply in this area here assuming a little bit yeah so there's a reason why I kept this on now you can see the reaction here and we've taken out some demand so let's go to the charts now what we have is we can delete that demand as there was no demand there so the yen has gained in strength due to probably some risk sentiment let's move this over there was some risk sentiment going on in the market and I want to move this supply zone here so potentially we could have buying opportunity if you're looking to buy the euro but remember we could potentially be entering into a risk off environment so risk off meaning the yen strengthens if the yen is strengthening you don't really want to be buying the euro also with the uncertainties around Brexit is the euro really a buy so what you need to do is probably if you're looking to buy the Japanese yen is wait for some sort of pullback into a supply zone before looking to get short if you are looking again to buy the euro these are really your areas do you have anything within that large demand zone we do probably something like this where you have support bit of support if you zoom in in this area bit of support and resistance here and here and then here again so this 1.22 level would be the next area if prices do fell here in order to look for some long positions now moving on to the Australian dollar US dollar and again what we had last week was a bit of buying and then the US dollar increased in strength and then we now have a bit of I suppose demand for the Australian dollar let's go to the charts let's have a look so we can delete this demand zone if you are now a buyer of the Australian dollar probably now is going to be a decent time to look for some buy trades but keep in mind that you have an area of supply again you have to believe that the Australian dollar is going to get stronger the US dollar or the US dollar is definitely going to get weaker at some point and this may be again the week that you can anticipate the dollar getting weaker if we don't have inflation it's below the 1.6 reading so you could see prices move to the upside on this currency pair if not and prices continue to move down then these are really your areas within this wider demand zone if you are looking to sell again your first area to look for short trades is going to be here if not it's going to be somewhere around these areas of supply and finally we're looking at the Australian dollar Japanese yen is really a measure of risk sentiment the yen being risk off if the yen is strengthening then we have risk off if the Australian dollar is strengthening then we have usually risk on so this week we've seen a bit of a sell off not really anything drastic to be fair it's kind of just drifted down into this demand zone in a bit of a range between this high and this low so here's where the range has probably started from and we have what is known as a bargain level for the dollar and the supply is a bargain level potential bargain level for the Japanese yen and prices really been contained between the 79 and 84 level and really down to this demand zone now what is going to push prices either out of here or beyond here again is probably risk off or risk on sentiment coming into the market this week or into the next coming weeks if you are looking to buy the Australian dollar now is an opportunity but just look to the left and see how many times that level starts I'd probably be looking to buy into this lower area it's a fresher area not that fresh to be fair but it's the 77.2 level hasn't been touched so that would be the area I'd be looking to look for any kind of buying trades with risk on for a risk off sentiment we're looking at prices you know coming up to here but again this area has been touched once twice already a few times so you really have to have risk off sentiment if prices do come up into this area before looking at a sell trade because at some point this prices will go into price discovery you just have to wait for a fundamental or a sentiment trigger so with that being said brings us to the end of this week's analysis I really do hope that you've enjoyed it if you do have any questions please email me at infoatrading18.com and hope you have a great trading week don't forget to like subscribe and share with other fellow colleagues it really helps and I hope you have a great trading week take care