 So, our man, Mr. Tim Moyd, folks, is also going to be doing a workshop. This workshop is a week from today. And the first one that Tim did, Bottom Line, we were talking about how do you look at bottoms? Well, this next one here is the secret science of market tops. You're going to love it. Next Thursday, the 14th, so from 4 to 5.30, folks, it's only $149.00, Bottom Line, from over our website at TFN, we get the target dollar sale going on simultaneously. You're going to get a great workshop. You're going to really get to understand, number one, what to look for at bottoms and what to look for at tops. You know, neither Tim nor myself or anyone else, we're not saying it's a crystal ball, but you can see the consistency of what Tim does, folks, okay? It is pretty intense, okay? Because when we, you know, we were going on six or seven months right now, first he hit gold, then he Bottom Line hit the S&P, and now, you know, Bottom Line will see whether we're coming into a top or not. Tim Moyd, what's going on? All right, I got you some charts over your way. We'll take a look at them. You certainly do. Let's do that. Yeah. Yeah. It's a chart one. Yeah, just give me one second, Tim. We're on that webinar a week from today, so, but anyhow, this is kind of a teasing, I guess. Yeah, good. What to look for, but the first chart, you know, the bottom window is the SPY. Okay. The higher window is the VIX. VIX really is a great indicator, especially when you combine it with other things. And the top window is the SPX VIX ratio. Yes. I got a pink area, if you can see that July area, where the S&P are making higher highs in that ratio. Yep. It was making higher lows, and that's one of the reasons why we got out in July was because of that. Right. And I want to point out, we have something similar on a little bit smaller time frame. If you look way over to the right window, far right window there, you can kind of see it a lot better, but you can see the S&P in general kind of working higher, kind of making higher highs, higher lows, while that ratio, which is the top window, is actually making lower lows. Look at that, huh? Okay. You can see the VIX there. As the market goes up, you should have the VIX really trace opposite of the S&P and the S&P. Yes. Right. So, but when both of them are going up, that's usually a negative sign for the market. And so, that's what we have right now. How long can this last? You know, that last one, you know, it went up for almost a month before the market actually turned down. Yep. And we've been going up for, I don't know, close to two weeks now, maybe a week, a week and a half, whatever. So what I'm saying is this divergence, or both of them are going up at the same time, can last a while. So, you know, what good is that? You know? I'm glad you're bringing this up to him because that, you know, like the market tops, folks, okay, go on much longer than you want them to go on most times. Right. Yeah. They can just, you know, you're short and they keep kind of pushing higher. Yep. And, yeah, so you've got to really watch what's kind of going on, but you know there's a divergence there. So at the moment, you're not bullish. So can it go higher? Yeah, I can squeak up higher, but as long as those two, as long as the VIX or VIX keeps going up with the S&Ps, that divergence persists and at some point, you're going to turn down. So let's look at another ratio on page, on chart two. Okay. This one actually, one of the reasons why it got me short, back in July top, that ratio was, this is kind of the same thing here. You've got the S&Ps going up and you've got this, the middle window is a TLT, which is a bond market to the VVIX, which is VIX of the VIX. So when the VIX goes up or the VVX, VIX of the VIX goes up before the VIX goes up. So it anticipates, when that VVIX starts going up, it anticipates at some point, the VIX will start going up. So that's how that works. So it's a little bit quicker signal using the VVIX than the VIX. So anyhow, I did that. So normally, the TLT kind of really trades off, it's not an ideal world, but it does kind of trade off at the S&Ps when that tilt's going up, a lot of times, the mark's going down, and it's kind of a safe haven. So it's a good indicator to have, to try to figure out where that mark is going to reverse. If you remember, back in October 27th, we got long on the analysis. That was the day of the low we went long. And the reason why we went long is because this ratio was going straight up. Nice. And if you remember, folks, October 27th, that was a bad day in the marketplace. So I can see why Tim also did it, because there was some fear there, wasn't there? That's pretty cool. Stay right there, folks. Tim and I are coming right back. Welcome back, folks. Tim Boyd, Tom Mulbran. We do appreciate you growling proud of us. We have the Dow up 73, and the Aztec up 189, S&Ps up 34. We're talking about what I've managed to Tim more, and he's bringing us through these different things that he's looking at for market tops. Now what's going on, folks, is next Thursday, Tim's going to be doing a workshop. You can be in that workshop. It's only $149. Come over to our website at TFNN. You can see it right into featured content. It's going to be an hour and a half. These tools, folks, no one has these tools number one. You can have them all. You can go over the archive as many times as you want. You can put the formulas in, a spreadsheet, and you're off to the races. And you just have to do a little work when you do these every night, every night. That's the bottom line. But guess what? Do you want to make money or not make money? That's what it comes down to. So, Tim, we're looking at this chart number two. Chart two, actually, this is the close of yesterday. OK. And the middle window is that TLT to a VBIX ratio, and it's making higher highs, along with the S&P's making higher highs. Right. OK, that's bullish. Yes. OK, OK. So now, flip to chart three. OK. Now, this is today's. So, and this is updated today. That was yesterday. So we didn't close at a new high. We actually closed a little bit lower. So the divergence went away, or the bullish divergence went away today. So now, you're making a little bit lesser highs still. So you've got a divergence. You've got the TLT VIX ratio making a little bit lower highs as the S&P's still making higher highs. So that puts back on the negative divergence. I guess you might say. Yes. So now you've got the S&P X to VIX ratio divergence, which can go on for weeks. You've got this is a little bit shorter term, but you still have a divergence. So it still suggests, at some point, we're going into a high. So you're getting a little more information, right, that it's getting more dangerous up here, basically, right? Yeah. Yeah. If you look at last Friday's high, we had high volume. I don't have that volume short. We talked about it, I think, last Thursday. Yeah. I thought last Friday's high, maybe it was Tuesday. So last Friday's high, I bet there's a good chance we're going to test that, because we had high volume. Yeah, $29 million, right? Which we haven't touched yet, but we may touch it tomorrow. And these versions are still present, these bearish diverges still present, that potentially could end up with a cell signal. I'll have to wait and see. Don't know yet, but let's look at it. So that's the short-term trend. The short-term trend shows bearish divergence upward that way, no signal yet. But so let's look at the bear term. OK. This is going to be a great big top, and we're going to go down to zero on the SPs. No, we're not. And this is the reason why. On this chart, chart number four, the bottom window is the SPY. And the next window up is the SPX-PIX ratio. And the last time we were talking back in May, I thought that the market's going to hit higher. And the reason why I said that was because of this ratio. The ratio is making higher highs, where the SPYs was basically matching its previous highs. Well, the SPY-PIX ratio leads the S&Ps. So we have a kind of a semisteriors. Right now, we're testing the July highs or early July highs. And this ratio is making higher highs. Wow. So at some point, we could have minor pullbacks, just like we did back in April May. We see pullbacks there. Nothing real significant, but probably we need the arms to get up there. So you get these pullbacks. The arms goes up to 1 and 1 half twos. You get enough energy to probably rally through. So I'm thinking we're going to pull back to around 440. This ratio, our ratio is a bullish divergence. So that gives you confidence to buy on that decline. Right. Because the bigger trend is still up, according to this ratio. And it does a pretty good job picking out the lows, too. If you go back and look at the May, June low, which is that red box there, that ratio is going a little bit higher highs. I see it. Marcus is going through the floors. Look at that, folks. OK, if you're in your car, remember, this is Archive 2, folks, because that is. Look at that, man. It almost gets down on the bottom, but it didn't. Interesting, man. Yeah, and that was the low. OK, cool. That was the low. So the most, and actually, if you look at the top window there, too, normally the VIX will start going up before the market actually tops. Yes. And usually it gets above 17 when those tops come in. OK. And so we got, as I did this chart, we're at 13. And so even though we're kind of consolidating here, we may have a minor pullback just to probably scare everybody for a week or so. But then probably the Christmas rally will start and we'll rally to year end. But usually the VIX will go up and above 17, you're getting above 17, is when you have to really start watching the market. Even though the market may be going up, that VIX is up past 17. Chances are you're going to enter some pretty turbulent water where the market does. You know it's pretty wild, Tim, is that right now the VIX is just hanging out here. And it's been hanging really in the same place minus one day for like 10 trading days so far. Oscillating around the 13 mock. So it's pretty wild. Yeah, but on the bigger time frame, it looks fine. Now short term time frames, if you go back to, can we go back to chart one real quick? Yep, absolutely. So you can't really see it on the bigger time frames, but the short term time frame is the VIX too. It's been going up, it was low as it looked like in the 11s. Now you're around the 13s. Going up, even though it's a minor divergence, you still probably get some short term reaction to it. OK. So you're looking. Now to go back to chart four again. OK. OK, I got it. Back there, yeah. See if you see that over the last couple of weeks how the VIX has kind of turned down? I do, I do. That ratio. So that's what we're looking at on a real small timeframe. The SP's keep making higher highs. Now, the ratio's going down. So you're probably going to get some sort of reaction here soon. You know, not months away, you know, days away. Let me ask you this. I don't think I've ever asked you this. What made you, I mean, I know you do so much work in the marketplace, OK? And this goes, folks, the first time I met Tim, I think is, well, you know, on the first time I met him, my person was 96. But I think I met him in like, I had him on 94. How did you come to the conclusion that you're going to start using some of these ratios looking at the marketplace? I just needed something more than what the trend was giving me. Yeah. And, you know, trend works great, you know, but you know, even that last low of October 27th, the 10-day trend never even got close to 1.2. OK, cool. OK. So, and these ratios actually helped me, you know, how did I come up with the ratio? I'm thinking, you know, I like the VIX. VIX has a lot of information. So I started messing with the SPX VIX ratio. Then I started, you know, the bond market has a lot to do with the stock market. Totally. So I started messing around with the TLT. Cool, OK. And just, you know, there's trial and error, and, you know, and just started screwing with it. And then over the years, of course, it gets consistent. Yeah, pretty cool. Just stay right there, folks. Tim and I are coming right back. We have the Dow Industrial's up about 49. NASA's up 181. SP's up 31. Tim and I are coming right back, folks. Welcome back, folks. Tim O'Rourke with Tom O'Brand. We are talking with Tim. We are talking about these different types of ratios, folks, that Tim uses that he's going to be teaching at TFN next Thursday. So go to the front page of TFN and feature content. You can sign up right now, and you're going to be very happy you did. OK, Tim. All right. So we've got a chart four. So, you know, the bigger picture, because of the SPX VIX ratio making higher highs, where the SPs are still testing the previous July highs, is just, at some point, will make a higher highs, because the SPY VIX ratio leads the way. So let's go to chart five. OK. And this chart, you know, this is not really racist. This is a McCullin-Oscaraxi. The top window is a McCullin summation index. Yeah. And it works pretty good. All right, I kind of, you know, I do it with my trend. You know, it gets below minus 700. You're going into a climatic low. And so that's all the blue lines across the chart there. When the summation index hits below minus 700. And October 27th, we were, I think, minus 813. So we hit climatic low in that vicinity. So, you know, my downside was pretty minimal. I mean, can it go below, you know, down to 1,000? Yeah, but, you know, 90% rally, in my opinion, was over. You know, so I had to worry about Monday or Tuesday, probably, if we're going to go down. Actually, not the rally, more downdraft, I mean, right? Yeah. Right, yeah, because you really got the downdraft already there, you know, that's. I looked at the summation, you know, it's minus 800. I mean, oh, well, can we go? Well, we can do a little work. Hey, Tim, what was the... 90% of the climb's done. Right, I know that the sun runs it now, but what was the father's name? Um, oh, yeah, Tom and... Tom, because, you know, he's the one that, he's the one... Tom is the sun. Oh, Tom's the sun, well, Sherman, right? Sherman, Sherman, right, Sherman. Well, Sherman's the one that gave me a number, you know. He didn't want to come on. I just realized this, man. I was calling people up, folks, okay? And I saw this thing, this immersion today, it says, like, what is this thing? He's the one that gave me a number. He says, no, I don't want to, you know, be on them. You know, just not that type of person. He's the one that gave me a number. And then I had Tom on, of course, after that, because Sherman only did it a few more years, and then Tom took it over. Isn't that crazy? Yeah, that's crazy. Matter of fact, they invited me out to California, and they were doing an investment club out there, and they had that investment club. I see. They were probably, oh, the people when I showed up, I was one of the, or actually him, and Sherman spoke, then I spoke, so there's just two of us, but they paved my way out there. Yeah. And I gave my, I was doing my tick, and you remember that tick thing I was doing? Oh, yeah. You know, yeah, you know, so. I still love that tick thing, man. Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's, you know, you gotta find things that give you a panic. Right. You know, as long as, you know, people are screaming and hollering and stuff, and that tick's going nuts, you know, you're over there to a bottom and a top. So, but yeah, it worked great. And as with Tim, I went presented out there and I met Sherman, met Tom and, and so. And folks who, what's cool. You can get back to this. Okay, guys. Yeah, they're both nice people. Yeah. So anyway, we got minus 800 on October 27th. That turned out to be the low. And so, how does summation thing work? Do you want a selling climax, and others reading below minus 700, then you want a buying climax, and that's a reading above plus 1,000, you know, like to happen within two months. Yeah. So October 27th was a low. That's one of my hit minus 800. As I did this today, we're at 461, approximately. So we got about, you know, 540 to go before we reached 1,000. And we like to have that happen around December 27th or before. Yes. Which is about what? Another two weeks away, three weeks away, whatever. Right. So now if we do get that, now that adds quite a bit of oomph to the bigger trend. Oh yeah. We have two of them, pretty much in a row. We had one coming in, you know, first of the year, that was October, then actually January, we had, you had October, you had the selling climax blow 700, then you had the buying climax in January. So that's actually about three months. Not ideal. And now you get another one, you know, that climax October 27th. And say something, you know, by the end of December, if we get up to less 1,000, that would blow well probably over the next six months, Ellie. I see. Because when you get these signals, if you go back and look, this chart goes back to 2007. Right. You know, sometimes those signals last years. Right. You know, you got one, you know, the COVID crash, which is a March of 2020. Yes. You know, the market went straight up for what, two years? Exactly. Exactly. So, you know, that would blow well, so don't know if it'll happen, but if it does happen, you know, you can't really be bearish. So, so I know, we'll see, but the bigger trend at the moment is still up. Right. So I don't see a big top here forming, even though there's quite a bit bearish talk out there. So. Oh, there's plenty of bearish talk out here. This is what's actually so cool, folks. Okay, because, you know, the euphoria is not out here. And so that's pretty intense, man. And we're right next to highs. That's what's really weird, Tim. Do you know what I mean? When you think about it. And I guess this has been a year and a half that, you know, we went down and, you know, unless you're doing this every day, I don't think people realize how close we are to the highs, actually. Yeah. Yeah, we'll ruffle close to highs if you know what you did. So I don't know, it's just, we'll get a scare, I think, here probably next week, you know, because of the charts I showed you. And that, you know, ideally you want that trend to go up right through the ceiling. Right. And to get some panic going, and you know, that builds energy for the next rally. Yeah. So we can put through the gold market real quick. Absolutely. Good. Everyone wants to hear that, that's for sure. Okay, so I get the weekly gold shot up, with the weekly XAU gold ratio, and then the weekly XAU, cool, okay. All right, this chart goes back to 2013. And what it is, just the honest eye of that ratio. And every time you get it below 30, in other words, that's when gold stocks relation to gold is going down a lot faster than gold's going down. Yes. When that ratio is getting killed, gold stocks are actually getting killed. Right. And that's when the opportunity rises. So you're trying to pick out the worst top possibly ratio to find, and when the RSI gets below 30, that's usually a good, oh, which we did have two signals back in 2022. One in July and one in September, because the RSI hit below 30, went up a little bit, and hit below 30 again, so it kind of gave a double signal. And it is a good signal also for at least, near me at term tops, when this ratio gets above 70. And we had that happen back in, looks like about, I don't know, March of 2022, got above 70 in July, September got below 30. So anyhow, my point is to the next chart. Okay. And in order to ask you, when we left off on Tuesday, and as soon as we come back, we'll talk about this. You know, when we were looking at the GDX on the monthly, you were talking about the aspect of getting above the middle Bollinger band, right? Yeah, yeah. And it looks to me like the monthly actually is there right now. Stay right there, folks. We're coming right back. Welcome back, folks. Tim Oetomo, Brian. We are talking gold now. Okay, Tim, go ahead. Chart number seven, quick look at that. Okay. It's a monthly XAU gold ratio. And I use these castings on this because it just works. Okay. This chart goes back to like 1984. So it shows all the signals going back to 1984. And the last thing we got was August of 2022. And this signals are really pretty good for the bigger timeframe. And it's kind of gone up, kind of going sideways here, but most of these signals, when they get, the flow of the castings is below minus 10, which it did back in August of 2022. And it turns out, most of the time, those are multi-year rallies. So I'm thinking the August of last year was the bottom. I see, yep. So I'm thinking the market is actually in a bull trend right now since August of 2022. So flip to chart eight real quick. Okay, I'm there. So now we're into a real small timeframe. And I got a minute to talk about it, but you know, the head and shoulder bottom formed the top window of the GDX. Yes. I thought the October low was probably the head. Had a right shoulder. The neckline was around 30. We had a sign of strength through the neckline. And the bottom window is the 18-day average up-down volume. The next window up is the 18-day average advanced decline. As long as both those two indicators remain above 10, they are one's plus 16, the other's plus 20, then that probably 30 area GDX will hold. And just to give you an idea, folks, okay? You know, at that sign of strength, we went up with 41 million shares. And Tim, we've only done 14 million today as we're coming back into it. 41 million to 14. Pretty wild. Well, listen, man, you have a great weekend, a safe weekend. We look forward to speaking the next Tuesday, Tim. All right, thank you. Okay, stay right there. This is a fast hour, man. Have a great one, have a safe one, folks.