 Hello everyone for today I am going to be breaking out the whiteboard and that's because we're going to be doing some calculations today. Don't worry it's nothing too daunting but I wanted to talk about something called probabilities and how these apply to your job and how you should be applying these to your jobs when you're working. Probability is I know it sounds like something out of statistics class or whatever but it's actually quite useful here and so let me get into this. First of all preliminarily probability is something you can apply for say a job. If there's a job that pays $100 and there's a chance you could get that job you figure out there's you know 60% chance you can get that job. Is that job worth $100? Well technically no it's worth $60 because there's 60% chance you'll get $100 and so it's worth $60. So I hope this makes sense because the reason it's worth $60 to you is that there's a 40% chance you don't get it so you could go through the effort of trying to get it and there's a 40% chance that you get zero. There's a 60% chance that you get $100 and in your calculations it's obviously you're not going to get $60 you're only going to get $100 or zero but in your calculations it should be worth $60 because this helps you decide what to spend your time on. This bet, this applying for this job for you is worth $60 and this can help you when you're dealing with other jobs you might be applying for that might be worth more or less if you can do the same calculation. I think it will help if I give you another maybe more realistic calculation that you can apply. So let's take this example you have job A pays you $1,000 job B would pay you $800 so which one which one of these jobs you should take it's very simple job A pays you more. Now the problem with this is say if someone else is applying for job A along with you and as far as you know as far as you can tell that person is just as qualified as you so if this means there's 50% chance you'll get this job but this job you're pretty much guaranteed to get it so what do you do you're thinking this kind of hard to calculate it you might think well how much risk am I willing to take I'd love to get a thousand let's just shoot for that or let's go with a safe one it's $800 and maybe we should do that but there is a more scientific a more mathematical way and a more precise way to go about this right because if this job pays $1,000 but there's 50% chance that you lose it and 50% chance that you'll get it then that means that this job is now worth $500 to you while this job is worth $800 this means that actually you should be taking job B and not job A now if you can have an advantage over this person here for whatever reason you find out who this other person is you're able to get more of an advantage then you can start tweaking these numbers because as soon as it reaches over 80% you'll realize that this is worth more than 800 and you should be applying for this job rather than this job and this calculation can come in handy when you're trying to figure out what to spend your time on so along those lines you can't even bring time into this so let's take this one step further and see what happens so we take this one step further and we'll give more or less a similar example job A pays $1,000 right job B pays $500 but you know you're competing with someone else so if you don't have much more information you'll give it a 50-50 chance so $1,000 this means that you get this job is worth $500 to you this job you're pretty much guaranteed it so you give it 100% and so this is also worth $500 great you went through all that calculation and you still came out that both are worth $500 so which one do you go for they're more or less the same well what you can do now is you can look at what type of jobs they are and how long they'll take more specifically so if job A makes a thousand bucks only 50% chance it works out but you know that it takes say 15 hours to finish up job A I'll try to write while I'm showing to you 15 hours this comes out to if my calculations are correct about $33.3 per hour that you'll be getting for this job here but this job here job B you'll know that it takes about 12 hours to finish obviously this is simplified because they're the same so it's an easy calculation and you can see that you make more per hour according to my calculation it should be about 41.6 if I can write it correctly dollars per hour I should add that to be precise per hour and so this means that you should be going for job B so you can feel free to make to do this calculation to perform it for any type of job you're applying for many times you can see how many other people are applying for jobs that you're applying for and many times you can see what type of people they are and who the candidates are so if you know that there are 10 other people applying for the job and you'll know more or less how much you get for that job that helps you make out the calculation comparing it to something else but this is a good calculation I found to decide which jobs to take which jobs to concentrate on more or which jobs to go for first because here you can decide okay this means I'm going to go for job B first and then with my spare time if I have any left I'll go for job A and see if I also can get job A but job B is the important one because this is the one where I get paid more so anyway this is a way that probability and percentages can help you out when you're trying to decide which job to apply for and what to go for so you don't have to just go for gut instinct and say well there's a hundred percent chance of that but I could get more for that so let's just go for it this at least makes you feel more sure of yourself now obviously it can happen that you decide to go for job A instead and that you get it and you end up getting paid more than you would for job B because there's still a 50% chance that you'll get it so remember you're dealing with probabilities nothing is a certainty but if you apply for job A a hundred times you know then you'll only get it 50% of the time and so anyway that's how probabilities work I don't want to get into it too much into the theory because it's not really useful here what is useful is this calculation to calculate the percentage likelihood you'll get each job and then to divide it by the number of hours it would take to work the job that'll give you a nice easy number to be able to compare job to different jobs another thing you can do by the way once you have all these numbers is to increase your likelihood say you actually you're like I really would like to work on job A how could I increase my likelihood of being able to do this there's several things you can do first of all the percentage you can try to find out who else is applying or else you can try to make yourself more preferable right if you can make yourself more attractive to this job you know that this job has is a translation that deals with machinery and you educate yourself for machinery or you can tell the client look I've worked with different types of machinery before I know all the naming I know all the terms in both languages so I would be a good candidate for this maybe that could increase it to 60% or something along those lines try to see if you can do something along those lines likewise here maybe there's a way you can do it in fewer hours you can say oh actually I could take it from here and simplify the process and finish it in only 10 hours in which case this will be worth it because 10 hours will mean that it pays $50 an hour so then it's worth it to go for this one so once you perform this calculation no matter if you're a risk taker or you're not you can find various ways to increase the percentage likelihood you'll get one job over the other if you'd rather go for one job over the other and so that's why I find this very useful to use when you're trying to compare jobs and things to go for so anyway I hope you're able to apply something like this in your work if you are feel free to let me know I'd love to hear about it or if you have other calculations that you like to use instead of this one I'd love to hear about that as well otherwise if you find this useful please don't forget to click like because then I know which videos are useful and and I know what to concentrate more on in the future and don't forget to subscribe if you want more videos that help out with freelancing with entrepreneur realism what would the entrepreneurship sorry and with with working online and working for yourself and things along those lines otherwise that's it and I'll see you in the next video thanks bye and sabedun