 Hello, everyone. Welcome to another International Relations capsule for the Shankar AIS Academy. Today, we discuss one year of Russia-Ukraine war, which will come on the 24th of February. The situation today looks rather bleak as there is really no chance of any kind of ceasefire or negotiations in the air. More than that, there have been several events in the last few days which give the indication that both sides are hardening their positions. The most important of these was a visit to Kiev by President Joe Biden for a day. It was a secret visit, unannounced. He flew to Poland, traveled by road and train to Kiev, spent several hours there and returned. This was a very significant visit because it is said that this is the first time that a serving U.S. president goes to a war territory which is not under the control of the American forces. It is true that Kiev is still under the control of the Ukrainian government, but the United States Army itself is not present there. And such a situation for a president of the United States to go is an exceptional event. The message was very clear. What he wanted to tell the world, tell the Russians and tell the Ukrainians where the United States stood and also giving an indication that there is no letter. United States is not going to relent on this question of supporting Ukraine as he called as long as it takes. This is a very major signal at a time when the war is about to enter its second year. There were many expectations that towards the end of the year there could be some kind of relaxation of tensions and could even lead to some kind of negotiations. This was particularly because of the G-20 declaration in Bali. It seemed to indicate that generally there was a consensus in the world that this is not a time for war. And both the United States and Russia acknowledged the contribution of countries like India in shaping the end of the war and beginning a time of peace. But President Biden's visit, his statements there and the reactions to the statement from President Putin all indicate that we are heading for a more difficult time in the war. Because there is no statement of any kind of compromise or any kind of anxiety about the continuation of the war on both sides. So we are in a situation where the United States has declared that it will continue to support Ukraine as long as it is required and also add more substance to their support. The United States has already committed more than 27 billion dollars to Ukraine and this time it was not only that he declared that it would be the 27 billion dollars will not be a limit because he announced a large number of new supporting activities for Ukraine. So additional military package of about US dollars 500 million was pledged. Not only that new supplies of unspecified rocket launchers and other 31 tanks and so many others which have not have been held back so far. So there is a new support to Ukrainian conflict physically providing new materials and support to the Ukraine's war effort. So the US is giving the clear impression that this conflict will continue and he would also involve so the United States would also involve more NATO countries in this and that is why he went back to Poland and again spoke about this situation. As far as the reaction is concerned Vladimir Putin of course straight away reacted very strongly what the United States have done accused the West of starting this war and also pledging that he will go to any extent to secure support for Russia and and defeat Ukraine at any extent. So these two things that the what the President has said and what President Biden has said and President Putin has said should be of great concern to the world as a whole. In addition to all this Vladimir Putin announced suspending participation in the new START treaty which was signed in 2010 by President Barack Obama and President Medvedev. These START talks as you know are limitation of arms talks they are not disarmament talks in the sense of every nuclear power engaged in it but this was started some years ago as a kind of limiting the expenditure of the countries to the barest many. So as part of the death arms between the east and the west several discussions were held by which they decided certain limitations on the arms space and this does not affect other countries as such this is only between the two of them they decide as to as much as they decide as to what kind of lethal weapons they must have whether they should unnecessarily expand and they try to meet the threats as perceived by the two countries. So the strategy arms limitation basically controlled the expenditure of these two countries rather than limit the possibility of war because they will still retain the capacity to destroy each other. So the suspension of the new START treaty is significant from the Russian side but it may not have immediate implication except that this comes in the wake of Putin talking about the use of nuclear weapons. So there will have enough nuclear weapons even if the arms treaty continues but this is more symbolic that the cooperation between the United States and Russia on the question of arms limitation will now be stopped and the US has also supplied 31 battle tanks larger-range missiles and Zelensky the president Ukraine is still not satisfied he is asking for more and more weapons because he thinks that the war is reaching a critical time and if he has more weapons he may be able to defeat the Russian and the president also said that Putin was dead wrong in starting the Ukraine war and support Ukraine as much as it takes. So and he told the president of Ukraine that we continue to believe that Ukraine is going to prevail in the end. So the basically what the president Biden did by his visit was to reemphasize and stress the unwavering commitment to Ukrainians to democracy sovereignty and territorial integrity. And in the statements by President Biden you can also see that he is projecting this as a conflict between democracy and autocracy. So he said that it is now in Ukraine that the fate of the world which is based on rules on humanity is being decided. So they are seeing this he is seeing that it's a wider context and they would naturally want to involve other countries in the conflict and this is the first is United States is openly supporting Ukraine and it is strengthening US NATO defense and continue to give physical support to the Ukraine war which was happening before but it is acknowledged and it has been extended. So the situation has become more complicated because of President Biden's visit and the reaction of the Russians particularly in the context of the arms limitation treaty. That may not have an impact, immediate impact but it connects with the possibility of his wanting to use tactical nuclear weapons in the war if it becomes necessary. He has never ruled it out. So the linkage that he is making between the President Biden's visit and the aggravation of the conflict to the nuclear arms talks. So which means that he is still thinking seriously on the question of nuclear war being waged. That is the other dangerous trend that has emerged. One other development at this time is the role of China. China has of course been neutral in this war in the voting system almost like India. But after the treaty between China and Russia just before the war has certain implications which is that in case Russia is in difficulty or on the point of defeat, China will have to step in and will step in. But the Chinese statements at this time are much more shall we say peaceful in the sense that Chinese foreign minister said that Beijing is deeply worried about the spiraling of the conflict. So China is trying to say that it is not aggravating the conflict and also said that China will provide its wisdom as it were to promote dialogue and to bring about some kind of immediate stop to the war. But on the other hand there is indication that China might, according to the Americans, China might in fact start supplying arms to Russia, lethal weapons to Russia. There's a charge that China denies but the United States has hinted at that. So and among all this there is also this report that Xi Jinping is likely to visit Moscow and that would be of course to seek peace as he says. But on the whole the Chinese intervention if any will have to be in support of Russia in the context of the American situation being, American position being hardened and expanded as a result of the Biden visit before the end of the first year of the war. So Russia has made it clear that it is fighting for the very victory and will not back out because of the new position that the US has taken. And he has said that of course the West has been plotting to attack Russia and this has been denied by President Biden. He said there was no intention to attack Russia in any way. This will completely be within Ukraine and the support will be to the Ukrainian soldiers and there will be no direct attack on Russia. And you may also remember that when Biden traveled into Ukraine a few hours before that a warning was given to the Russians that the President was going to travel to make sure that there is no accident of any kind which may take place during the President's visit. But that did not mean that the fighting stopped even when President was visiting Ukraine. He was in Kiev, there were bombs falling around and it was not a completely peaceful situation. So one year since the war one can say with regret how much happened, it has killed thousands, displaced millions of people, it has disrupted the global food and energy markets and therefore the so-called war between democracy and autocracy that is developing. It might also bring into the war other countries in the event of the war becoming decisive in one way or another. At the moment it is not at all decisive unless the war takes a new turn which now it has taken because of the American support. There was never any decisive victory for anyone. Both sides have had successes, both sides have had defeats. So unless the situation changes after the first year into a new situation things were slowly and gradually cooling down you could say. But at the moment at the time of the anniversary of the war we can see only that this is this is worsening. As far as the other countries involvement of other countries is concerned the reactions you could see that NATO countries are all supportive of the President Biden's initiative. Obviously they were all consulted before he went and also declared announced of his support to Ukraine. So as far as the nuclear matters are concerned President Biden said that it will watch but at the same time Americans are saying that this is a many responsible act. So unsubmutation treaty is really something that causes concern but the Americans are not directly reacting to it because it has no immediate impact on the war situation itself. So another development is that President Putin said that he had heard that the Americans would be breaking the present suspension of nuclear testing. Both the countries have agreed not to test new nuclear weapons and Putin said that they have these reports that America might resume testing of new nuclear weapons and if that happens Putin will also react. So there is really no sign of any kind of way out of the conflict and all signs indicate that the situation is worsening as the first year of the war is completed. China is not likely to intervene directly but we do not know when Regent Pink is going that says he will go in the spring. So it is quite possible that China's efforts will be to somehow control the spiraling effect of the war and there could be some effort by China to bring about a ceasefire on the positions. That is the only helpful sign but at the same time knowing where the Chinese sympathies lie this cannot be taken for granted. So while China may not enter the conflict at any time soon the Chinese intervention if is already in the future will be on the side of Russia that is quite clear that's also not very comforting for us to think. Well as far as India is concerned we have taken a consistent position that this is not the time for war it is time for negotiations reconciliation etc and that idea has been accepted by the G20 countries and now later this year we have the G20 summit in India and therefore India will be particularly careful not to take any sides on this issue and try to bring about some kind of a resolution of the conflict because it is not part of the formal agenda of G20 but considering what happened in Bali where much attention was given to this I suspect that since the war is not going to end in the first year it could be that the agenda of the Delhi G20 summit might be crowded by this issue and some focus will be given to the resolution of it and if G20 can give some guidance to both the parties to end the conflict that will certainly be a plus point for the Indian presidency. So India's own position remains the same obviously apparently there is going to be a general assembly resolution being quoted by France and there have been reports that France is trying to influence India to vote for that resolution in the sense that resolution may be neutral in a certain sense and therefore countries like India could also India and China could also support but that is some discussion going on in New York and elsewhere but on the whole the situation is far from satisfactory it is dangerous and if it continues it will not only affect Russia and Ukraine but also the rest of the world that is where the concern is because of a shortage of food, shortage of energy, shortage of fertilizers and all these are staring the world at this particular time. So the reason need for this to be resolved need to end the war but the way it is going it only looks that it is spiraling further at the end of the first year with no solution in sight which is not a very hopeful sign. So we should look out for new developments following what has happened in this last one week and see whether there is any possibility of any intervention by the G20 or anybody else Security Council of the General Assembly to end the war but the situation is far from hopeful. Thank you. Well the only organization which has that capacity is the United Nations but this war is being waged by a permanent member of the Security Council of the United Nations so what can the United Nations do? So that is why I was saying that possibly G20 would emerge as a kind of grouping which can impact on the situation because it includes the permanent members it includes the other countries from the developed and developing world so it is possible that it may have an impact but the way the situation is developing we do not know what position these countries will take but it is quite clear that the whole world is not divided into two it's not that every country is supporting either Russia or the United States but lots of countries in the middle who are concerned about what is happening in the war conflict and what it has what implication it has for the world and therefore large number of countries in fact almost all other countries are willing and keen to end the conflict but there's nothing that they can do because two permanent members of the Security Council of the world so as organizationally there is no possibility of an impact but the G20 I believe would be of some impact on the situation when we have that conference but that of course is several months away but effort will be continuing by the only body it's not a committee the only principle organ of the United Nations which is entrusted with international peace and security is a security council so no one else in the United Nations has the mandate or the ability to handle this and the United Nations becomes completely paralyzed when two permanent members are facing each other because they can veto each other all the time and therefore as a body as a body entrusted with peace and security security council is completely ineffective thank you