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Simulating an epidemic

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Published on Mar 27, 2020

Experiments with toy SIR models
Home page: https://www.3blue1brown.com
Brought to you by you: http://3b1b.co/sir-thanks

Awesome fan-made interactives:
https://prajwalsouza.github.io/Experi...
https://learningsim.itch.io/pandemic-...

Simulations by Harry Stevens at the Washington Post:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphi...

Simulations by Kevin Simler at Melting Asphalt:
https://meltingasphalt.com/interactiv...

Excellent visualization of each country's current growth from Minutephysics and Aatish Bhatia:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54XLX...

Another good interactive to see what effect various parameters have on the shape of the curve:
http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html

If you want to hear a mathematician/epidemiologist's summary of COVID-19, I found this MSRI talk very worthwhile:
https://youtu.be/MZ957qhzcjI

Marcel Salathé on Contact Tracing:
https://twitter.com/marcelsalathe/sta...

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These animations are largely made using manim, a scrappy open-source python library: https://github.com/3b1b/manim

If you want to check it out, I feel compelled to warn you that it's not the most well-documented tool, and it has many other quirks you might expect in a library someone wrote with only their own use in mind.

The source code for this video is visible at the link below, but the, er, awkward part is that it was made on a branch of manim where I'm reworking a lot of other things and have yet to work out all the kinks or add any documentation, so I'm not entirely sure how easy it will be for others to get running. In either case, you should be able to easily see how all the simulations worked.
https://github.com/3b1b/manim/blob/sh...

Honestly, given that the code for that video is meant for demo purposes, and not meant to reflect the true data of COVID-19, if you want to apply these ideas to the current situation I'd recommend looking for more professional epidemiological modeling tools that are less centered around animations and pedagogy and more focused on accurate predictions. For example, the Institute for Disease Modeling has a lot of models free for people to look at and play with.

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Opening music:
Candlepower by Chris Zabriskie is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/...)
Source: http://chriszabriskie.com/divider/
Artist: http://chriszabriskie.com/

Other music by Vincent Rubinetti.
Download the music on Bandcamp:
https://vincerubinetti.bandcamp.com/a...

Stream the music on Spotify:
https://open.spotify.com/album/1dVyjw...

If you want to contribute translated subtitles or to help review those that have already been made by others and need approval, you can click the gear icon in the video and go to subtitles/cc, then "add subtitles/cc". I really appreciate those who do this, as it helps make the lessons accessible to more people.

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3blue1brown is a channel about animating math, in all senses of the word animate. And you know the drill with YouTube, if you want to stay posted on new videos, subscribe: http://3b1b.co/subscribe

Various social media stuffs:
Website: https://www.3blue1brown.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/3blue1brown
Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/3blue1brown
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/3blue1brown...
Patreon: https://patreon.com/3blue1brown
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/3blue1brown

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