18,274
  • Prediction is a lot like playing poker...so why do we treat it like it was a coin toss? Enter the Bayesians!

    THUNK - 144. Thinking Like a Bayesian - Duration: 8 minutes, 55 seconds.

    • 4 days ago
    • 1,770 views
    Prediction is a lot like playing poker...so why do we treat it like it was a coin toss? Enter the Bayesians!

    -Links for the Curious-

    Bayes' Theorem Illustrated (My Way), by komponisto - https://w...
  • Newcomb's Problem: it's like "Is a hotdog a sandwich?," but WAY nerdier, with deep implications for rationality.

    THUNK - 143. Newcomb's Problem: Evidential & Causal Decision Theory - Duration: 7 minutes, 17 seconds.

    • 2 weeks ago
    • 1,094 views
    Newcomb's Problem: it's like "Is a hotdog a sandwich?," but WAY nerdier, with deep implications for rationality.

    NOTE: Thanks also to Rob Dufau for his help with this week's episode!

    -Links for t...
  • Many people are worried about rogue AI's of the future, but what about the ones that already exist?

    THUNK - 142. "Rogue AI's" of the Present Day - Duration: 8 minutes, 27 seconds.

    • 1 month ago
    • 1,406 views
    Many people are worried about rogue AI's of the future, but what about the ones that already exist?

    -Links for the Curious-

    “Dude, you broke the future!” by Charlie Stross - http://www.antipope.o...
  • A self-replicating 3D printer might be on the horizon, & with it, the exciting potential of Von Neumann probes!

    THUNK -141. Von Neumann Probes - Duration: 9 minutes, 7 seconds.

    • 1 month ago
    • 1,326 views
    A self-replicating 3D printer might be on the horizon, & with it, the exciting potential of Von Neumann probes!

    -Links for the Curious-

    “Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata,” by John Von Neumann,...
  • You've changed a lot, but you've got yourself more or less figured out now, right?

    THUNK - 140. The End of History Illusion & Introspection - Duration: 7 minutes, 20 seconds.

    • 1 month ago
    • 1,350 views
    You've changed a lot, but you've got yourself more or less figured out now, right? You and everyone else.

    -Links for the Curious-

    "‘Know thyself’ is not just silly advice: it’s actively dangerous...
  • Rhetorical jousting has its place, but so does good faith argumentation.

    THUNK - 139. Good Faith - Duration: 7 minutes, 25 seconds.

    • 2 months ago
    • 1,424 views
    Rhetorical jousting has its place, but so does good faith argumentation.

    -Links for the Curious-

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2756738/

    https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=...
  • What’s the harm in a little white lie? Well, if you tell enough of them, you may be able to steer an electorate.

    THUNK - 138. Misinformation - Duration: 11 minutes.

    • 3 months ago
    • 1,940 views
    What’s the harm in a little white lie? Well, if you tell enough of them, you may be able to steer an electorate.

    -Links for the Curious-

    “Cognitive Ability and Vulnerability to Fake News” by Davi...
    • CC
  • Is a brain all you need to have a functional mind? Is the body peripheral to cognition? Many researchers think so, but advocates of embodied cognition have different ideas.

    THUNK - 137. Embodied Cognition - Duration: 8 minutes, 20 seconds.

    • 3 months ago
    • 2,399 views
    Is a brain all you need to have a functional mind? Is the body just peripheral to cognition? Many researchers think so, but advocates of embodied cognition have different ideas.

    (Quick note: “Alte...
  • Engineering is a highly technical field, but it makes use of exceedingly useful & straightforward ideas.

    THUNK - 136. Engineering Wisdom: Tolerance & Failing Gracefully - Duration: 8 minutes, 50 seconds.

    • 4 months ago
    • 1,502 views
    Engineering is a highly technical field, but it makes use of exceedingly useful & straightforward ideas.

    -Links for the Curious-

    “How To Accept Over-Engineering For What It Really Is” (Fagner Br...
  • Aumann’s Agreement Theorem suggests that rational folk shouldn’t be able to keep disagreeing...and yet...

    THUNK - 135. Aumann's Agreement Theorem & Arguing to Learn - Duration: 7 minutes, 12 seconds.

    • 4 months ago
    • 1,879 views
    Aumann’s Agreement Theorem suggests that rational folk shouldn’t be able to continuously disagree...so why do we?

    -Links for the Curious-

    Agreeing to Disagree (Aumann, 1976) - http://www.ma.huji...
  • Is a hot dog a sandwich? Let's examine one of the hardest problems in metaphysics to find out. Because THUNK.

    THUNK - 134. The Problem of Universals - Duration: 10 minutes.

    • 4 months ago
    • 4,681 views
    Is a hot dog a sandwich? Let's examine one of the hardest problems in metaphysics to find out. Because THUNK.

    -Links for the Curious-

    The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy is invaluable for get...
  • Power structures: Hobbes thought we'd murder each other w/o 'em, but there's a great game-theoretic reason, too!

    THUNK - 133. Game Theory & Power Structures - Duration: 10 minutes.

    • 5 months ago
    • 1,964 views
    Power structures: Hobbes thought we'd murder each other w/o 'em, but there's a great game-theoretic reason, too!

    NOTE: Sorry this episode is so late - there have been electrical troubles at THUNK ...
  • THUNK - 132. On Understanding Others - Duration: 7 minutes, 8 seconds.

    • 5 months ago
    • 2,279 views
    “I will *never* understand why people X.” Oh really? Let’s turn that dial up to 11 and see what happens.

    -Links for the Curious-
    In case you’re wondering why I didn’t include a reference to the Ne...
  • Gettier problems, radical skepticism, the closure principle - “knowledge” is one hell of a rabbit hole. Let's take a look at some fun epistemology!

    THUNK - 131. Puzzles of Epistemology - Duration: 8 minutes, 36 seconds.

    • 6 months ago
    • 2,120 views
    Gettier problems, radical skepticism, the closure principle - “knowledge” is one hell of a rabbit hole. Let's take a look at some fun epistemology!

    -Links for the Curious-

    The Stanford Encycloped...
  • Bayesian statistics - what are they? Do I want them? What do they have to do with epistemology, rationality, & prediction? Is it possible they’re happening inside me RIGHT NOW?

    THUNK - 130. Bayesian Epistemology & Predictive Processing - Duration: 9 minutes, 39 seconds.

    • 6 months ago
    • 2,523 views
    Bayesian statistics - what are they? Do I want them? What do they have to do with epistemology, rationality, & prediction? Is it possible they’re happening inside me RIGHT NOW?

    -Links for the Curi...
  • Coping with the knowledge of our own mortality is often tricky - what if we just tried a different angle? #YOLO

    THUNK - 129. Immortality - Duration: 10 minutes.

    • 7 months ago
    • 2,788 views
    Coping with the knowledge of our own mortality is often tricky – what if we just tried a different angle? #YOLO

    If you’re struggling with suicidal ideation or depression call the national suicide ...
  • Boredom isn't just murderously frustrating, it's a psychological trait with surprisingly far-reaching effects.

    THUNK - 128. Boredom - Duration: 7 minutes, 45 seconds.

    • 7 months ago
    • 2,403 views
    Boredom isn't just murderously frustrating, it's a psychological trait with surprisingly far-reaching effects.

    -Links for the Curious-

    Boredom Proneness Test, by Science of Us - http://nymag.com/...
  • Predicting the future is hard. Weirdly enough, you can sometimes do better with *less* information!

    THUNK - 127. Overfitting & Reference Class Forecasting - Duration: 11 minutes.

    • 8 months ago
    • 2,100 views
    Predicting the future is hard. Weirdly enough, you can sometimes do better with *less* information!

    -Links for the Curious-

    Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (Kahneman & Tversky...
  • Critical thinking is well and good, but it only really helps if you’re willing & able to change your mind!

    THUNK - 126. Debiasing: How to Change Your Mind - Duration: 10 minutes.

    • 8 months ago
    • 3,424 views
    Critical thinking is well and good, but it only really helps if you’re willing & able to change your mind!

    -Links for the Curious-

    Giving Debiasing Away: Can Psychological Research on Correcting ...
  • There's much ado about "consciousness," but what even is it? What's the big deal? How hard could it be? @_@

    THUNK - 125. What Is Consciousness? - Duration: 8 minutes, 25 seconds.

    • 9 months ago
    • 4,074 views
    There's much ado about "consciousness," but what even is it? What's the big deal? How hard could it be? @_@ (At least as hard as FOCUSING THE CAMERA GAH)

    -Links for the Curious-

    If you are *at al...
  • All work & no play make Jack not only dull, but also less productive, healthy, neurologically developed...

    THUNK - 124. Play Theory - Duration: 8 minutes, 6 seconds.

    • 9 months ago
    • 2,687 views
    All work & no play make Jack not only dull, but also evolutionarily disadvantaged...

    QUICK NOTE: The most commonly-cited explanation for animal play (practicing direct analogs of survival behavior...
  • What makes me "me?" How can I still be me, even though I change over time? Is Starfleet taking applications yet?

    THUNK - 123. Personal Identity & the Transporter Paradox - Duration: 11 minutes.

    • 10 months ago
    • 3,662 views
    What makes me "me?" How can I still be me, even though I change over time? Is Starfleet taking applications yet?

    -Links for the Curious-

    Parfit's review of personal identity - http://home.sandieg...
  • Is discovery the work of genius, or an inevitable social process? The data suggest neither; maybe it’s chance!

    THUNK - 122. The Stochastic Model of Scientific Discovery - Duration: 10 minutes.

    • 10 months ago
    • 2,216 views
    Is discovery the work of genius, or an inevitable social process? The data suggest neither; maybe it’s chance!

    (Sorry about video "hunting;" I'm getting used to a new camera!)

    -Links for the Cur...
  • Isaac Arthur - Channel

    • 144 videos
    This channel focuses on exploring concepts in science with an emphasis on futurism and space exploration, along with a healthy dose of science fiction. While we explore many concepts and technologies
    • CHANNEL
    253,870
  • THUNK - 121. Teleological Bias - Duration: 8 minutes, 3 seconds.

    • 10 months ago
    • 2,059 views
    Teleology: explaining things via their intended purpose. Turns out we've a tendency to use it *everywhere.*

    (Sorry for the re-upload, guys! My computer's on the fritz. :( )

    -Links for the Curious...
  • THUNK - 120. Business Networking - Duration: 11 minutes.

    • 11 months ago
    • 2,754 views
    Networking is an essential part of career advancement in business today, but should it be?

    -Links for the Curious-

    Networking, Corruption, and Subversion (Ned Dobos, 2015) - https://papers.ssrn.c...
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