Uploaded by metilps on Dec 29, 2008
http://www.TakeTheGambleOutOfBetting.com
Not only do bettings systems fail to beat casino games with a house advantage, they can't even dent it. Roulette balls and dice simply have no memory. Most betting systems in roulette and every toss in craps is independent of all past events. In the short run you can fool yourself into thinking a betting system works, by risking a lot to win a little. However, in the long run no betting system can withstand the test of time. Furthermore, the longer you play, the ratio of money lost to money bet will get closer to the expecation for that game. I have received hundreds of e-mails from believers in betting systems. Their faith reaches a religious fervor. However, in all things the more ridiculous a belief is the more tenaciously it tends to be held. Yet the betting systems inside of casinos are still standing and nobody has ever proven anything that works.The number of 'guaranteed' betting systems, the proliferation of myths and fallacies concerning such systems, and the countless people believing, propagating, venerating, protecting, and swearing by such systems are legion. Betting systems constitute one of the oldest delusions of gambling history. Betting systems votaries are spiritually akin to the proponents of perpetual motion machines, butting their heads against the second law of thermodynamcis. A common gamblers' fallacy called 'the doctrine of the maturity of the chances' (or 'Monte Carlo fallacy') falsely assumes that each play in a game of chance is not independent of the others and that a series of outcomes of one sort should be balanced in the short run by other possibilities. A number of 'systems' have been invented by gamblers based largely on this fallacy; casino operators are happy to encourage the use of such systems and to exploit any gambler's neglect of the strict rules of probability and independent plays. No betting system can convert a subfair game into a profitable enterprise...As you can see, the flat bettor has a bell curve with a peak at a loss of $1, and never strays very far from that peak. Usually the Martingale bettor would show a profit represented by the bell curve on the far right, peaking at $51; however, on the far left we see those times when he couldn't cover a bet and walked away with a substantial loss. That betting system happened for 19.65% of the sessions. Many believers in the Martingale mistakenly believe that the many wins will more than cover the few loses.
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