Stopping the Coming Ice Age (Part 1)

1988 http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0444528156?ie=UTF8&tag=doc06-20&link... Watch the full program: http://thefilmarchived.blogspot.com/2010/09/global-cooling-stopping-coming-ic...

Global cooling was a conjecture during the 1970s of imminent cooling of the Earth's surface and atmosphere along with a posited commencement of glaciation. This hypothesis had little support in the scientific community, but gained temporary popular attention due to a combination of press reports that did not accurately reflect the scientific understanding of ice age cycles, and a slight downward trend of temperatures from the 1940s to the early 1970s. Mainstream scientific opinion is that the Earth has not durably cooled, but undergone global warming throughout the 20th century.

In the 1970s there was increasing awareness that estimates of global temperatures showed cooling since 1945. Of those scientific papers considering climate trends over the 21st century, only 10% inclined towards future cooling, while most papers predicted future warming. The general public had little awareness of carbon dioxide's effects on climate, but Science News in May 1959 forecast a 25% increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide in the 150 years from 1850 to 2000, with a consequent warming trend. (The actual increase in this period was 29%.) Paul R. Ehrlich mentioned climate change from greenhouse gases in 1968. By the time the idea of global cooling reached the public press in the mid-1970s temperatures had stopped falling, and there was concern in the climatological community about carbon dioxide's warming effects. In response to such reports, the World Meteorological Organization issued a warning in June 1976 that a very significant warming of global climate was probable.

Currently there are some concerns about the possible cooling effects of a slowdown or shutdown of thermohaline circulation, which might be provoked by an increase of fresh water mixing into the North Atlantic due to glacial melting. The probability of this occurring is generally considered to be very low, and the IPCC notes, "even in models where the THC weakens, there is still a warming over Europe. For example, in all AOGCM integrations where the radiative forcing is increasing, the sign of the temperature change over north-west Europe is positive."

The cooling period is well reproduced by current (1999 on) global climate models (GCMs) that include the physical effects of sulphate aerosols, and there is now general agreement that aerosol effects were the dominant cause of the mid-20th century cooling. However, at the time there were two physical mechanisms that were most frequently advanced to cause cooling: aerosols and orbital forcing.

Human activity — mostly as a by-product of fossil fuel combustion, partly by land use changes — increases the number of tiny particles (aerosols) in the atmosphere. These have a direct effect: they effectively increase the planetary albedo, thus cooling the planet by reducing the solar radiation reaching the surface; and an indirect effect: they affect the properties of clouds by acting as cloud condensation nuclei. In the early 1970s some speculated that this cooling effect might dominate over the warming effect of the CO2 release. As a result of observations and a switch to cleaner fuel burning, this no longer seems likely; current scientific work indicates that global warming is far more likely. Although the temperature drops foreseen by this mechanism have now been discarded in light of better theory and the observed warming, aerosols are believed to have contributed a cooling tendency (outweighted by increases in greenhouse gases) and also have contributed to "Global Dimming."

Orbital forcing refers to the slow, cyclical changes in the tilt of Earth's axis and shape of its orbit. These cycles alter the total amount of sunlight reaching the earth by a small amount and affect the timing and intensity of the seasons. This mechanism is believed to be responsible for the timing of the ice age cycles, and understanding of the mechanism was increasing rapidly in the mid-1970s.

The seminal paper of Hays, Imbrie and Shackleton "Variations in the earths orbit: pacemaker of the ice ages" qualified its predictions with "forecasts must be qualified in two ways. First, they apply only to the natural component of future climatic trends - and not to anthropogenic effects such as those due to the burning of fossil fuels. Second, they describe only the long-term trends, because they are linked to orbital variations with periods of 20,000 years and longer. Climatic oscillations at higher frequencies are not predicted... the results indicate that the long-term trend over the next 20,000 years is towards extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation and cooler climate"

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[darthvader5300]

@Achuara Fortunate for you to know the truth but a great majority of your citizens had been brainwashed by continuous exposure to mainstream media lies owned by vested interests connected to your own government. We Russians have lost 2 villages to advancing glaciers in 1974 & many parts of Russia is being overwhelmed by extreme cold and growing glaciers. This is why nuclear power is being pursued by us for it is the only energy source to keep Russia alive & it's heat to melt advancing glaciers.

[Achuara]

@rugbyguy: Human agriculture started well before the LAST GLACIAL period. Remember that homo sapiens is about 1.5 million old on Earh, and several glacial periods occurred since then. The only grave issue about global warming is that IT IS A SCAM, a HOAX, a SCIENTIFIC FRAUD, and measures, laws, regulations, taxes, cap' n trade, CO2 markets, etc, for stopping it are useless and worse yet, terribly expensive for everybody's economy. It is all about Global Governance and control of the world.

[rugbyguy59]

1:45 in: At the start of the last ice age the temperature dropped so fast that agriculture becomes impossible? What agriculture was there before humans.

The claim is recent evidence and some studies but nothing cited or listed to support any of the claims. This is just another nutty program about false problems. They are a dime a dozen. There are enough real issues. Issues like global warming.

[vlvl21]

@thehumandartboard isnt your pramafrost melting??? This is what I read and is becoming a problem for the wildlife............. I think its going to be the opposit, this planet is too dame pulluted to go back to its natural cycles.

[thehumandartboard]

@vawtyeah

Yeah, we're supposed to get the coldest winter in 30 years this year...and I'm in Canada, so that's pretty frickin cold. At least now I live at my Dad's, which is almost as far south as you can get in Canada. However, we do live near the coast, so when it gets cold, it get's cold. Today started out as t-shirt weather, and now It's so cold I don't even want to go outside.

[circusboy90210]

things climate believers need you to ignore.

[vawtyeah]

Looks like the ozone hole slowed the process but seems it is happening now. Noctilucent clouds appear to cinch it. CO2 and methane release leads to blanketing Earth with first surface reflective ice crystals at the edge of space. I don't know if we will be able to stop it as the fossil fuel robber barons control our world so I'm moving South.

[vawtyeah]

Looks like the ozone hole slowed the process but seems it is happening now. Noctilucent clouds appear to cinch it. CO2 and methane release leads to blanketing Earth with first surface reflective ice crystals at the edge of space. I don't know if we will be able to stop it as the fossil fuel robber barons control our world so I'm moving South.

[justanothersheeple]

well at least some some mention from discredited ipcc on sudden ice age though i don't believe in anthropomorphic global warming/try vulcanization

[guslingus]

Great Post..... Where is the Academy award for this one...