Recession? Leading Economic Indicators Say No

Certain economists have recently made very loud proclamations that their indicators are predicting that the U.S. is either in a recession or will be in the fourth quarter. Our findings do not support their views. We track the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI). Long before previous recessions started, the LEI first rolled over and flattened, and then declined before each recession began. This same pattern played out before all eight of the last recessions the U.S. has endured since 1960. The LEI has been on a steady rate of recovery since the March 2009 lows and has given absolutely no signs of a recession.

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Education

Tags:

• leading economic indicators
• LEI
• conference board
• recession
• economy
• economic recovery
• consumer expectation index
• chicago pmi
• ism
• double dip
• gdp
• larry chlebina
• financial advisor
• akron advisor

[wilsoch5]

Great insight. Good to see a positive take amongst all the doom and gloom.