Dr. Scott Armstrong on Climate Forecasting - Part I

Dr. Scott Armstrong, a leading expert on forecasting with the Wharton School at University of Pennsylvania, has challenged Al Gore to a bet. He bets that the "naive model" of no change will outperform the climate model forecasts over the next ten years. Armstrong argues that the model-based climate predictions of the IPCC are "forecasts by scientists rather than scientific forecasts."

Category:

News & Politics

Tags:

• ClimateBet
• ScottArmstrong
• Scott
• Armstrong
• AlGore
• Al
• Gore
• climate
• forecasting
• GlobalWarming
• global
• warming
• bet

[apostasy10]

The climate system is chaotic across all time scales? How about the time scale commonly known as the "year". Where I live it's warm in the summer and cold in the winter, that's usually not too chaotic.

Lol - hot air? See above video. 

You guys just don't understand science on a really basic level. You deny the peer-reviewed scientifically-derived theory for political reasons (you dont like liberals), and then cry foul when your bat-crazy logic is questioned. It's downright scarey.

[desantiaxion]

@apostasy10

maybe its GW but if u follow the bouncing ball its a short term thing,... right

right befor the last ice age, 100 000 cycle wow were 80000y early, ok now thats scary, if ur a noob, stop tryn to scare childern piper and do something bout it, peace

[desantiaxion]

just throw in conspiricy and indisputable and they will belive it, hail hitler... so r the going to tax the co2 in ur pop lmfao i bet not, if it was a real issue they would do something bout it insed of just spouting alot of hot air.;P

the sun is king not man, it is a major factor not us, beliving in Man made GW is an ego tric my friends,i like it how the real pple know its a crock right away but im afraid for the large mass of retarded sheeple,we need to educate them. but if not we can skin um

[desantiaxion]

@apostasy10

so how much do u get paid to look like an idiot, ur not a scientist, with a fraz like GM deniers, ur a main stream nazi, stop me when im wrong. entirely indisputable that global warming is very real, where did i hear this exact speach... all over the place.... do u ever think that it is the sun that has an effect on our climate, o godno not the sun its only like 99% of our solar mas, no way that it has anything to do with global issues, do u know where u need to pull ur head out.

[paulg22]

apostasy10,

You simply don't know what you're talking about. The climate system is chaotic across all time scales, so it doesn' t matter if we're talking weather or climate, the models simply cannot predict, even retrospectively, multi-year variations.

[apostasy10]

You nutso global warming deniers don't have any need for logic, do you? If you had any interest in or knowledge of science you'd realize that climate models are used to predict long-term CLIMATE trends, not to predict the weather. And you'd also realize that it's entirely indisputable that global warming is very real, regardless of how many right-wing middle-managers or second-rate bio-chemists like to deny it. Get your head out of the sand!

[paulg22]

If climate models aren't intended to be forecasts, then why does everybody talk about global warming predictions based on the models. The entire global warming argument is based on model results.

There is simply no basis for your claim that climate models are more accurate over long time periods, since they haven't even been in existence over long time periods and it has been show quite convincingly that they fail to even correctly "predict" the past climate.

[minilemur]

rsmith02 - yes your post is indeed a wild guess that does not contribut anything scientifically pertinent to the debate. Did you not listen to any of this video before posting your opinion?

It's rubbish to say that climate models aren't intended to be forecasts - what else is the alarmism based on? Observed trends show no cause for alarm in the mild global re-warming we have seen.

[rsmith02]

Let me take a wild guess that he isn't willing to take part in the "long bets" to see whether his theories are right.

Climate models aren't intended to be forecasts and are more accurate over longer time periods as that is climate, not short-term chaotic trends (weather).

[Wybigtrails]

This needs to be required reading for the national news media and Al goreeeeee and his con men friends.