Dow Jones Elliott Wave (Big Picture) alternative to Robert Prechter's views

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This is my interpretation using Technical Analysis and Elliott Wave Theory to look at financial markets. Elliott wave is my preferred tool when looking at the stock market, I believe that it can work to reflect the "psychology" of the market quite accurately.


This video should NOT be taken as investment or trading advice.

Category:

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Tags:

• FTSE
• 100
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• Wave
• Theory
• Robert
• Prechter
• Technical
• Analysis
• S&P
• 500
• Gann
• Financial
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[nocsm1]

In sports, particularly basketball, the players with the best stats usually have the record for the most shots missed. To look for someone to be correct all of the time is ludicrous. I will gladly take someone's advice (Prechter) who is correct at least at 40 to 50% of the time. especially if I have no idea of what I am doing. Great counterpoint video, I have increased my protection (calls) on my short positions as a result of this video.

[Andronichuk]

@nocsm1 Thanks for the comment. I do have to stress that I have to distance myself from any financial decisions taken by anyone who has watched it... (don't want to get into trouble with financial regulators).

But I am glad that this video has provided you with an alternative idea for consideration to Prechter's... even if I am wrong... it is never good to have 1 single dogmatic view out there.

[philolson321]

interesting views, but my money is still on prechter's analysis. He is a trading champion. Did you call the lows in March 09 within the week like he did? Also, did you call the April 2010 top essentially to the day like he did? Prechter's views maybe seem bizzarre but he's been right for the last 10 years. Look at the bond market man, it is currently pricing in HISTORIC DEFLATION. I also find it very ironic that you are using the technical analysis that Prechter invented to disagree w/ him?

[Andronichuk]

@philolson321 Correction: Prechter didn't invent it... he re-published it. It's Elliott Wave Theory (named after R.N Elliott) not Prechter Wave Theory.

I have to say you need to be carefull with interpreting his success rate. As I state in the video I did not call he march low (as I was only just starting to learn Tech. analysis at the time) and I didn't call the April high.

But you are overlooking all the false calls he had leading up to the april high.

[Andronichuk]

@philolson321 Ie: he said the Jan high was going to be the top after we saw some heavy selling.... but we go higher down the road.

I don't disagree with him completely... but I do not think people should buy into his "Guru" status so easily but asses him critically... after all, it makes no difference to me what you do with your money.

But his record as a whole does have some major holes in it, either way... he still provides an interesting analysis.

[mpolavieja]

@T1systems. Yes he has been wrong on his advise to traders consistently since 1987, I agree. But he has been right on his advise to average investor since 2000 recommending to stay in cash.

[T1systems]

@mpolavieja I like Prechter personally. I appreciate his demeanor and what he did for Elliott. The disconnect comes where he touts how "tough minded" he is. Being short from NASDAQ 400 through 4000+ isn't being "tough". It's just being wrong. When the market proves me wrong I like to "reboot" my perspective: look at the market fresh from both sides. Being monolithically bullish or bearish is like playing chess and not trying to figure out what the other guy is trying to do.

[mpolavieja]

@T1systems. I think Robert Precther, despite being wrong many times (like everyone else) is honest with his advising. It seems that what he says is what he really believes. Regarding his opinion since 1987.... I wonder how much money he has lost :-S

[T1systems]

@mpolavieja From a pure proportional point of view the 1970's lows make some sense. Part of my issue here is that there are a lot of people copying Prechter's long term count. Many of them don't actually know his target or have not considered the implications of it. "The size of the bubble" can be unwound fast and sharp or drawn out over time. I don't know which will happen. I will keep an open mind and watch for clues. Prechter made up his mind Oct 22 1987 and has not changed it since.

[mpolavieja]

@T1systems. The target that seems more probable to me is 1987 lows first and the 70's low second. But as I said, I am not very experienced counting waves.

[mpolavieja]

@T1systems. I don´t know, i am not very experienced counting waves. And even agreeing RP about the degree, for me is also an issue expecting a 4th wave to be as steep as he suggests.

Only the size of the credit bubble makes me think that he could be right.

[T1systems]

@mpolavieja Just to be clear, *I* am not predicting Dow 40. That number is RP's (40-400, the 1929-1932 "4th wave" range where 40 is the "terminus"). That the "4th wave" range is 1000% is an issue for me from an Elliott POV: 4th waves tend to be flat, complex, sideways patterns. "depending on the correction´s degree." Since 1987 this has been the question about Prechter's calls. Obviously he got the degree of that correction wrong. Is he off by 1 or 2 degrees of scale here too?

[mpolavieja]

@T1systems Well, you might be right depending on the correction´s degree. With Dow @40 is fairly possible things would get as you depict.. Anyways I think is very difficult to foresee now if we are heading to 1000, 400 or 40, even suposing that we are "99% accurate" on our wave count. It´s way too early. But of course it´s not a discardable scenario.