How Accurate are Peak Oil Predictions?

Peter Tertzakian
Chief Energy Economist, ARC Financial Corporation Author: "A Thousand Barrels a Second"
http://www.energyfuture.tv/

Category:

Education

Tags:

• oil production
• Peter Tertzakian

[Knossos22]

@danbuck333 oh, and I completely agree with "The fed is now trying to re-inflate the bubble." Will it create a larger crisis? That is probably true, although, interestingly, I think we come to the same conclusion, but for differing reasons. That is always interesting.

[Knossos22]

@danbuck333 Thanks for the responses! I've heard this argument a number of times. Still not convinced. I would love to hash this further... See if we can achieve some clarification and whittle away at some of the differences. Much of what you have written is clearly valid. But there is more to the story (I think).

You seem to be more libertarian and Austrian / Hayek school on economics. I tend to fall more on the Keynesian side.

Have to go, will come back with a response.

[danbuck333]

@Knossos22 part 3 The fed is now trying to reinflate the bubble, by spending trillions and having interest rates at zero this is only going to create a even larger crisis in the near future, most likely a sovereign debt crisis AND a currency crisis

none of those things will be caused by the price of oil either.

[danbuck333]

@Knossos22 part 2 As Ive explained the finacical crisis was not created by the price of oil but rather the price of oil was an effect of the feds reckless monitary policy

With all the cheap money circulating in the system oil was bid up in a massive speculation bubble by investors but mostly investment banks like jp morgan and goldman sachs

Like i said before oil wasnt going any where when measured against gold this proves that it was a currency problem, the fed has created massive inflation

[danbuck333]

@Knossos22 At the end of 2000 the dotcom bubble burst, insteed of letting the market clear the fed lowered interest rates to stimilate the economy, then 911 happend so the fed dropped rates lower, the consquence of this reckless monitary policy is that it created a massive housing bubble, not only in america but all around the world, it also created bubbles in many other asset classes, oil being one of them

Now the fed is following the same fomular that leed us into this crisis

[Knossos22]

@danbuck333 "“It will be especially important because the global economy will still be very fragile, very vulnerable. Many people think there will be a recovery in a few years’ time but it will be a slow recovery and a fragile recovery and we will have the risk that the recovery will be strangled with higher oil prices,” he told The Independent."

"He", being Dr. Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the International Energy Agency (IEA):

[Knossos22]

@danbuck333 “Throughout energy circles, the threat of climate change has held the spotlight in recent years. Meanwhile, two other concerns have re-emerged from the shadows. The financial crisis of 2008/09, which some analysts link with volatile oil prices, reinforced the concern that high energy prices can cripple economic growth.”

- Energy Technology Perspectives, International Energy Agency, 2010



[Knossos22]

@danbuck333 I've seen nothing to make me agree with your thesis. So I simply disagree. The prevailing story advanced to explain the economic collapse is crap. Reads like a cover story.

Peak oil is already past - May 2005 p. Conventional (light sweet - the good stuff) crude has been on a down ward sloping plateau over the past 5 years+, despite the price of oil increasing to $147 a barrel. In 18 months you will see the decline really begin.

See here: /watch?v=PMn-neFkE4I

[Knossos22]

Money is only the representation of the ability to do work. Energy ***IS*** the ability to do work. Without fossil hydrocarbon fuels the engines powering civilization will come to a stop. Money will be worthless in such an economy. The available energy per capita has been in decline for a long time. Over the past 30 years, in the US, capital has shifted to the hands at the top while the bottom has lost ground. With increasing fuel costs, spending from the bottom 70% declined.

[danbuck333]

@Knossos22 well we will have to agree to disagree, like I said I have no doubt peak oil is real and coming soon, I just dont believe that had an effect or was the cause on this current finacial crisis, either way we look at it we are in the shit!