Property Bust after 14 year Boom- Fred Harrison, part 1

Is there a property crash every 18 years? Fred Harrison thinks so. In his book: Boom Bust, House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010, Harrison describes a cycle of 18 years. If he is right, we are headed towards a Depression by 2010, and it will be many years before those who bought at the peak will be back to even.

After the Introduction, I look at price developments in the UK Property market since the 1994 Low. After a strong 14 year upswing, the market peaked in August 2007, and is now headed into a severe downturn. How long will it last, the Video provides a possible answer.

Category:

Howto & Style

Tags:

• UK
• Property
• Crash
• Depression
• 2010
• Peak
• Harrison
• 18
• year
• cycle
• real
• estate
• bubble
• subprime

[athertg]

I believe in land value taxation but I do not believe this theory of cycles. The theory has been conveniently retro-fitted with the benefit of hindsight to it all the events since 1990.

There are, in my view, better expalanations for the recent boom and busts in housing land prices.

[BubbFromGEI]

"retro-fitted"?

Harrison started making his forecasts well before 1990, and he prediction the 2007/8 peak many, many years before it happened. Why not do your research before making ridiculous accusations.(!)

[ourearthhome]

Greed manifests when people can get something for nothing. In the case of the housing market greed is primarily about cashing in on the increasing value of land the value of which is created by (because it is bid up by) the community as a whole. This is the age old game of a few claiming to own not only the land (fair enough) but also the value the community creates and then turning around and charging others for access to their own planet. It is a parasitical scam not unlike chattel slavery.

[BubbFromGEI]

Property profits are not "something for nothing", except when banks require nothing down, and there is no risk of loss. Now at the recent top, when banks were financing 90% and even 100% or more, it may have seemed like that. That's why so many jumped in, and pushed prices so high.

The risks of property ownership are being brought home to everyone by the current price slide. There is no free lunch. Lives are being ruined by property debts.

[ourearthhome]

The increase in land value which accounts for most of the increase in real estate values when people do not do significant renovations or add improvements. Owners of land do not create land value because the community as a whole creates it. All economists agree. If you do not create the value of something yet get to pocket it either through rents and sale price in the case of land this is a wholly unearned income and it is at the expense of everyone else. At least It is wholly unearned.

[whotaughtyou]

LAST THING TONIGHT

ACCURIST CHRONOGRAPH ALARM W R 1006 ANGELINA JOLIE

[NearAbbeyRoad]

@BubbFromGEI

Profits from increased LAND values are something for nothing. It is appropriating public wealth for private gain.

It is simple. The values in land were not made by the landowner - they are made by the community. That is a fact of economics. The value is common wealth. That is reclaimed to pay for community services. Get it? Social wealth is socialized. To offset, no income tax is collected promoting enterprise. Private wealth is then privatized.

[NearAbbeyRoad]

@BubbFromGEI

Profits from increased LAND values are something for nothing. It is appropriating public wealth for private gain.

It is simple. The values in land were not made by the landowner - they are made by the community. That is a fact of economics. The value is common wealth. That is reclaimed to pay for community services. Get it? Social wealth is socialized. To offset, no income tax is collected promoting enterprise. Private wealth is then privatized.

[NearAbbeyRoad]

@athertg

Harrison did what anyone can do.He looked at the land data. He never made it up. All he has done is identify the boom and bust by observing and analyzing data.

[nkristianschmidt]

@athertg Somehow we just cannot make regressions on future data...retro it is...always. That's regression modelling for you.

[NearAbbeyRoad]

@Macrocompassion

There is no logical explanation for the 18 years. It is just an observation of factual events.

I thought it was harsh on Gordon Brown who did keep the UK out of the post 9/11 recession - not by luck by good observation and judgement to what was right at the time.

[NearAbbeyRoad]

@janosabel

Property is the bricks on the land. Land Value Tax taxes the land only, not the bricks.

Buying land and homes and leaving until the price is "right" creates a homes shortage. London had/has 200,000 homes vacant, in a city short of accommodation.

[flagship21]

Greed kills ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh­hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh­hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh­hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh­hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh­hhhhhhhhhh

[sugarraygras]

Good posting. You will only ever convince those who havent been lured by the age old broken promise of increased wealth without working for it! I tried to tell friends not to buy for the last 6 yrs and took ridicule for it and still havent had an apology. We are heading into a neo fuedal society were your bonded by the debts around your neck!

[recessionlover]

The 18 year cycle in house prices has been known about for years. The late Robert Beckman certainly knew about it.