Bruce Bueno de Mesquita predicts Iran's future

On the History Channel there was a program called

The New Nosturadums. Does anyone know if its on youtube? It was a documnetry

If you have extremely fast computers and a good model it is, at least theoretically, possible. Although it is strange that he does not publish the basis of his theories. But, he is making tons of money on it, so I can't blame hi...

Cont' from below>>>Or in families, An Apple doesnt fall far from the Tree! Same thing with Governments! Only on a bigger scale! After all governments are all just made up of individual people who may or may not have spots (certain patterns of behavior only predicted & understood by looking at previous behaviors)! Not some B.S. gobbledygook divining algorithm with no published Academia to back it up! B.S. Meter is in the RED! But he told you it's true and he's a Ph.D.! He wouldn't Lie?>>>

Cont' from below>>>#2 Biggest indicator of B.S. was his statement that he doesnt need historical choices of individuals! Best predictor of future events or outcomes is Previous Actions =Sun comes up in morning, Leopards have spots, Once a pedophile always We all know about patterns of behavior and Ill bet you can finish that previous sentence in your head, Why? Past event Exposure! A leopard doesnt change its spots because he comes from other leopards that have spots! >>>

Cont' from below>>>Ask any Con and they will tell you that once you have the marks confidence the rest is like -Taking candy from a baby but more like Sheep to the slaughter! And do you really think if the CIA had a 90% predictive capability they would just voluntarily release that info? I dont think so! But they certainly want you to believe they do! They got your CONFIDENCE NOW? Oh yea, and Iran to! Ah!... Means to an end!>>>

B.S.! 1st off the CIA is involved. That means nothing is as it appears! The CIA = (Intelligence Gathering), (Keeper of Secrets)! CIAs purpose = (Protect American & CIA Interests by any and all means!) One means is by using information to manipulate Peoples and Governments to pre-defined ends! The best way to manipulate is by Confidence hence the term, Con-game or better yet Game theory-Sounds respectable right? More like it comes from Academia like Math, Oh No? Oh Yes! >>>

the thing is he's not simplifying anything - by saying if there are n people then there are n! interactions then he's making it vastly complicated. Not only that, he hasn't even published the "model." In science, you publish things so other people can reproduce your results. He is using "science" and "math" to give himself a veneer of respectability but this is not science. He is not claiming you can't really predict anything but that you can. He is nothing but a bullshitter.