David Jacks' seminar to the UC econ department Feb 26 20101: What has driven trade booms and trade busts in the past and present? Jacks derives a micro-founded measure of trade frictions from leading trade theories and use it to gauge the importance of bilateral trade costs in determining international trade flows.- for 130 country pairs across the Americas, Asia, Europe, and Oceania for the period from 1870 to 2000. The seminar demonstrates an overriding role for declining trade costs in the pre-World War I trade boom. In contrast, for the post-World War II trade boom changes in output is the driving force. Finally, the entirety of the interwar trade bust is explained by increases in trade costs.
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