To summarize for a 12-team yahoo default league first 4 rounds (makes or breaks drafts excepting experts):
A) If top-5 RB available draft: RB-WR-WR-RB
B) If top-5 RB taken draft: QB-RB-WR-RB
C) If top-5 RB and top-2 QB taken draft: RB-RB-WR/QB-TE/WR/QB
Real world examples (NOT necessarily saying I would draft like this, just giving you an idea of what value is what):
A) Ray Rice-Roddy White-Greg Jennings-Jonathan Stewart
B) Aaron Rodgers-Steven Jackson-Marques Colston-Beanie Wells
C) Rashard Mendenhall - DeAngelo Williams - Matt Schaub - Antonio Gates | - Desean Jackson - Steve Smith | - Anquan Boldin - Phillip Rivers | - Tony Romo - Steve Smith
Variance: http://davidmlane.com/hyperstat/A16252.html
"The essence of fantasy football - or any fantasy sport - draft is to not overdraft or reach for players. This means not to value a player beyond a draft round where an equivalent player can be drafted. To make this clearer, if we say round 1 is a "10" value, and round 2 is a "9", and so on, then drafting player A at value "9" where an equivalent player B can be drafted at "7" is overdrafting, or a loss of 2 points. These points accumulate, and are what destroy fantasy teams.
We determined the values of the rounds, arbitrarily speaking, but how do we determine the value of the players for each round? Through simple statistical analysis of player fantasy projections for the upcoming season (2010), which are found all over the web, and generally do not deviate. By calculating the variance of the top 10 players for each position, we can appropriately draft for the first 4 rounds, the most valuable rounds in the whole draft, and most importantly, not subjected to as many uncertainties as players outside of the top 20.
Variance shows variability. A higher variance score means higher variability amongst the sample. The positions with the greatest variability in their top 10 are (in descending order): RB-QB-TE-WR. This means the top 3-5 RBs will score much more points than the bottom 3-5 of the top 10, and so on for each position. But this also means that, relative to other positions, the top WR is equivalent to the 10th wide receiver, which has huge implications.
First, assuming a non-PPR league, and a yahoo! default format (though this point will make no difference if you use ESPN), DO NOT EVER DRAFT A WR IN THE FIRST ROUND. This is, of course, because the #10 WR can be drafted two rounds later, you've essentially deflated your #1 pick. Instead, if the top 5 RBs have been drafted, take the 1st QB, or 2QB is drafted already. Why not a top 10 RB? Because you can grab that same RB in the 2nd round, based on your draft position, and QB variability means if you pass on the top QBs, the QB you do choose will be less valuable. And again, even in the 2nd rd, do not draft a WR, because you can get most likely get the same one in the 3rd round.
Now what to do in the secound round if you draft in the top 5? Surprisingly, go WR. The remaining RBs can be purchased at an equivalent price in the 4th round, yet the top 10 WR will be gone by then. For your third round pick, I recommend another top 10 WR, and then RB in the 4th, TE in the 5th, and QB in the 6th.
On the flip side, drafting a QB first and then RB, you're left with no choice but to take a WR in the third round. Also, you'll most likely want to take a RB in the fourth, because you will have a late 5th round pick, and the drop off of value is steep.
Now what happens if both the top 5 rbs are gone, and the top QBs have been taken? Go RB-RB, to get yourself two top 10 rbs, because the available QB value will be there in the 3rd round. This makes your following selections much more open ended. You can go QB in the third, or WR. I recommend WR, because the value drops in the fourth round.
But what about TE's? No offense to TEs, but when they are drafted is dependent on the other positions, simply because the top TEs score like low-top 10 and lower WRs. I only consider them in the 4th round when going RB-RB-QB, as the 11-20 WR picks can be drafted in the 5th and 6th rounds."
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Fantasy Football 2011 Tipsby jjjppp1112221,331 views
@brnoamik Ahh an Eagles homer! J/k.
A lot of ppl are high on Kolb, as for me, I like to play a wait-and-see approach and choose a more tested QB. Lower possible return, yes, but also, lower risk.
UCIBME 1 year ago
i like philly so i take desean-mccoy-kolb in all drafts.
brnoamik 1 year ago