Smart Trades Update 7.13.11 Long term Dow alternative to Prechter, S&P, Crude, NG, Dollar, Gold

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Smart Trades Update 7.13.11 Long term Dow alternative to Prechter, S&P, Crude, NG, Dollar, Gold

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[T1systems]

@ctrader09 Look at your own copy of Prechter's long term count....call 1932 a 1-2 instead of (III)-(IV) (note there is no alternation in your/RP's (II) and (IV) waves). Also note *all* of your counts, even your "bullish alternate" counts, have been wrong (too bearish). The market is talking to you, but you only have ears for Mr Prechter's Super Cycle Bear song....

[ctrader09]

@T1systems The fact that it extended that far, if anything, would portend a bigger top than he expected, not a smaller one. Also regarding the CRB, commodities exhibit ABC overlapping patterns. So the the series of 1-2's isn't necessarily, or likely, correct.

[T1systems]

@ctrader09 He was decisively bearish in October 1987. He said : "the Grand Supercycle bear market has begun". Just because he didn't write a book that year, or some folks here weren't born yet, it doesn't change the fact. Here's the point: if the market extends 3400% beyond were it "should", it's likely you're off by a degree of scale. That's exactly what's happened, yet all the newbie "Elliotticians" cling to some variation of Prechter's original count....

[ctrader09]

@T1systems No extended from 1995 when he turned decisively bearish with his first bearish book.

[T1systems]

@ctrader09 I guess you weren't around circa 1987, nor did you read my answer. Prechter called the top in 1987 @ NDX 137 or so. That's 13 years early no matter how you count it. Oct 22, 1987 if memory serves, just after that crash. So you're saying his 1987 count is "right" and it's just an extended 5th (2280% extention basis the NDX)?

[ctrader09]

@T1systems Certainly wise to have an open mind, but the reason Prechter was 5 years early in calling for the bear market to begin was that the 5th wave extended. He didn't account for that when he should have considering the size of the top that was building. Then it extended into 2007 with a divergence between the DOW and the COMP/NDX. There is a pattern on the DOW I am watching that is extremely bearish long term, and that is a megaphone top. this would allow one more all-time high.

[T1systems]

@ctrader09 Google "CRB back to 1450" I count I-II-1-2-i-ii-iii on that chart.......what do you count please? The bottom line is we *don't* know exactly where we are in very long term counts.....

[T1systems]

@ctrader09 If the market doesn't confirm the pattern I'm looking for, then I look to re-evaluate. There's some evidence (24 years and 11,000 Dow points, *3400%* in the NDX) that RP's original assumptions are off. I think it's wise to have an open mind to an alternate scenario. The logical alternative is that we've had a series of 1-2's rather than 3-4's. How else do you explain the best Elliott Wave analyst in the world circa 1987 being so far off?

[T1systems]

@ctrader09 Sure it's possible. Essentially this has been Prechter's call since October 1987 when he said: "the Grand Supercycle bear market has begun"....targeting 40-381 Dow. Or how about circa Oct 1995, he said: "the message is unequivocal, portending a record setting collapse in stock prices...." when the Nasdaq was in the 500's (NDX eventually hit 4800). As a trader and analysts I have a set of expectations based on the patterns that I assume to be correct.

[ctrader09]

Hi Bill, I tend to favor a move down to DOW 570, as it is the cycle wave 4 low, and the beginning of the great asset mania. Historically, the ending point of manias is below the start. Hopefully we switch monetary systems before ALL of the credit inflation from the 1930's is undone and we are at DOW 40.