Dow, Gold, Dollar: Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis Review

Overview:

The Dow and S&P may have put in an important top. A failure to
take out recent highs Monday or Tuesday is bearish.

Details:

The sharp decline overnight Thursday into Friday may be the start of a trend
change to the downside. Weak rallies Monday-Tuesday should be sold.

Here is my favored outlook basis the Dow. If the top is in the next rally should
fail near 10,370-10,420. A rally back above 10,496 breaks the specific bearish
pattern at least for now, but it doesn't mean the Dow is going to take off either.

An alternate count shows the decline as an abc basis the S&P futures. If it can rally through "b" (1111.25) then 1120 may come into play. Note the top of the wedge will be near 1120 over the next few days. 1120 is near a 50% retracement of the entire decline from 2007-2008 basis the S&P.


Gold doesn't look like it's topped. It could go sideways to lower for a few days, but I favor two more
swings to the upside: one over 1200, perhaps another pullback, and then another rally to 1250 or so.
That said I'll take it one step at a time.

The dollar may not have bottomed, but I do not have a clear short term count. I would wait and watch for
a clearer picture.

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[devon19210]

rsi at peaks *since august*

[devon19210]

so what's the verdict after today? to me the rsi divergence spells trouble - the rsi at the peaks since then has been decreasing as has the volume.... your thoughts? thx..

[luvzpalin1]

wheres the wavers on t bonds?