Smartphones will replace computers - Technologizer.com

Harry McCracken - founder and editor of Technologizer.com
IFA 2009 International Press Conference
Malta, April 18, 2009

Category:

Science & Technology

Tags:

• Microsoft
• Nokia
• carriers

[ivaciu]

This video was filmed in 2009, attention...

[ogicabp4u]

@ogicabp4u ...but it takes more than one or two slams to reduce it to 1%. But the 2nd ad 3rd slams also effect other procurser and precursor technologies by varying but relevant amounts. It's really hard to get rid of the last 1% and may take many shunts to dislodge it off the track completely since it is so compacted or 'niched' the last 1% dies hard.

[ogicabp4u]

@ogicabp4u It's not like a domino effect where one device completely kill off the other or a 'shade and fade effect' where one device eventually overshadows the other. It's more like what I call a layered 'bunt and shunt' effect. A new technology appears miles of on the horizon takes time to gather pace and slams into the rest of the carriges of a train. The carriges that have the weakest support are crushed almost out of existence

[ogicabp4u]

@ogicabp4u Today much less than 1% of communication is handwritten or typed on a typwriter. BUT it still exists! So does the 8 bit computer - the Educational Computer which is a NES/Famicom clone with a keyboard. Still on sale today. Also FPGA boards and the MSX FPGA and the Minimig (Amiga FPGA computer) exist for enthusiasts and people still collect old 8 bits or make their own.

You get where I'm going with this?

[ogicabp4u]

@ogicabp4u (less materials, lower manufacturing cost). this will kill another 10% of Desktops. The laptop will only encounter an 80% slam when the next tech arrives like augmented reality computing. Latops will be at 10% useage, Desktops 1% and the smartphone will be threatened. Then come chip implants or AR contact lenses, electronic paper, holomorphism, then hard light devices.

[ogicabp4u]

@ogicabp4u The laptop will probably start to fade too but it will become so powerful that people will eventually stop using desktop PCs (or similar future connatations of it) altogether except where imovability actually is beneficial and advantages (eg security , storage etc.)

Most will be using smartphones to start with to compliment their existing PCs/Laptops. Eventually most laptops will kill off 80% of PCs because they because they become way more powerful and evetually cheaper

[ogicabp4u]

@ogicabp4u People said that wouldn't die. Then came email and then the internet. India and Thailand still use typewirters for legal documents in court and we still handwrite letters to our loved ones.

So based on this model. The AutoCAD guy will be one of the few DESKTOP PC users left (...along with special effects creaters, specialist programmers and engineers and enthusiasts)

[ogicabp4u]

People said that the hand written letter would never die because 'people prefered a handwritten letter as it was more personal even in business' that was at the turn of 2 centuries ago. But the typwriter did take over about 80% of that space - it wasnt popular for the first 15 years of existence then whoosh! Then came the 8-bit computer and later DTP in the 80's and eletronic printing press not only did it reduce hand written content to about 10% but then the typewriter was threatened too.

[pufixas]

if smartphone will change computers.... THAT WOULD BE COOL!!!