Bill Phillips Moniac Economic Analog Computer

Allan McRobie demonstrates one of the few operational Phillips Machines at the Alumni Weekend 2004 at Cambridge University.

The lecture from which this clip is taken was held at the Cambridge University Alumni Weekend 2004, and filmed by Björn Haßler.

Full lecture, including more economic experiments, available at

http://www.sms.cam.ac.uk/media/1094078

NOTES:

When it debuted back in November 1949, the leading thinkers at the London School of Economics crammed into the seminar room, some having come just to laugh, others gaping in amazement at the thing in the middle of the room, which had been cobbled together in a garage, with a pump cannibalized from an old Lancaster bomber.

Water flows through a series of clear pipes, mimicking the way that money flows through the economy. It lets you see (literally) what would happen if you lower tax rates or increase the money supply or whatever; just open a valve here or pull a lever there and the machine sloshes away, showing in real time how the water levels rise and fall in various tanks representing the growth in personal savings, tax revenue, and so on. This device was state of the art in the 1950s, but it looks hilarious now, with all its plumbing and noisy pumps.

Though its tempting to view the Phillips machine as a relic of a bygone era, in one way its just the opposite; theres something about it as fresh as the day it began gurgling. Look at its plumbing diagram. Its a network of dynamic feedback loops. In this sense the Phillips machine foreshadowed one of the most central challenges in science today: the quest to decipher and control the complex, interconnected systems that pervade our lives.

For those wishing to learn more about Professor A. W. H. Bill Phillips, his contributions to economics, and his remarkable machine, see:
Leeson, R., ed. (2000) A. W. H. Phillips: Collected Works in Contemporary Perspective. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Excerpted from:
http://judson.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/06/02/guest-column-like-water-for-money/
http://mediaplayer.group.cam.ac.uk/go/26/CU-AllanMcRobie-Phillips2004

Category:

Science & Technology

Tags:

• Economics
• Bill Phillips
• Cambridge University
• AllanMcRobie
• Computing
• Computers

[wigleypg]

A note. From Alan McRobie at Cambridge University:

[megabigblur]

The comment by McRobie in the Guardian article is hilarious: "Everything was in the wrong place. It had been here since the 1950s but everything was connected wrong. I had to work out what he was trying to do. Economics is run by people who didn't understand it." Btw the reason the models doesn't take inflation into account is because it wasn't such a big problem back then.

[mattread77]

Saw one live today, its pretty impressive when operating. I was a bit disappointed that only the museum guide was there and not the actual operator to change the various economic variables.

[Alistairville]

It's the "Glooper"! Thanks Terry Pratchett  :-)

[wigleypg]

@JesusManson323 No I don't thinks so, but then I haven't seen any malignant cells - clearly you have?

Is what you are saying tantamount to saying "I'll start chemo right away in case I get cancer some time in the near or distant future"?

Where is the evidence that monetary policy has failed, or is failing, or is about to fail soon? Are we waiting for the second coming or the rapture or financial Armageddon?

Please make a case for a solid alternative to sound monetary policy.

[JesusManson323]

@wigleypg is that tantamount to saying "I'd like to see if cancer really does kill me before I pass judgement"(?) The event itself may be the evidence?

[wigleypg]

Examples include the Federal Reserve System in the United States, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the People's Bank of China, and the Bank of Japan.

Some believe that monetary policy is fraught with risk and these risks will result in drastic harm to the populace should monetary policy fail. I'd like to see some evidence before I pass judgment 

[ThennyDlux]

LOL, so by his model the central banks printing money would be an open fire hydrant in the room and the credit card companies a burst water main then the derivatives would be the 5 feet of standing water in the room, money is an illusion, cool computer thingy though.

[Werelion2367]

Fascinating video! I wonder if you could set up the problem for an upward sloping IS, but it might stall out because some derivatives might become infinite because the IS curve is normally downward sloping in most models.

[ufoengines]

Bet ya if the public had one of these to check on Wall Street with, the economy wouldnn't now be in such a deep ditch!