Dow Jones Elliott Wave Analysis (10/03/2010) (Big Picture reviewed)

This video is complimented by another review of the FTSE 100 market and a new video to come, showing a very convincing alternatice elliott wave count (in my opinion) to that of Robert Prechter.
I think it is important to keep this in mind, as the FTSE 100 has broken a key technical level, I have had to review the long term picture and the arguments of Mr Prechter.

As things stand, I think Mr. Prechter has miscalculated and is wrong about how far markets will fall.
All is explained so please take a look.

This is my interpretation using Technical Analysis and Elliott Wave Theory to look at the Dow Jones. Elliott wave is my preferred tool when looking at the stock market, I believe that it can work to reflect the "psychology" of the market quite accurately.


I am NOT a very experienced trader or technical analyst, but I am very interest in developing my skills and welcome you to share your experienced and advice so that we may both learn from it. Nothing in this video should be taken as investment or trading advice.

Category:

Education

Tags:

• FTSE
• 100
• Dow
• Jones
• Elliott
• Wave
• Theory
• Robert
• Prechter
• Technical
• Analysis
• S&P
• 500
• Gann
• Financial
• Trading
• Charting
• Schiff
• Stock
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• Street
• Crash
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• Count
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• Inflation
• Deflation

[bmw528i00]

I really hope your wave count is correct. The biggest problem I have with Prechter's count is something every Elliott technician should know better about: His Grand supercycle wave 2 (following the 1720's crash) ends BELOW the start of the wave 1. That's not wave 1 & 2. In my opinion, were in need of a correction yes, but more toward 5K and then back up.

[Andronichuk]

@bmw528i00 I think prechter is over doing it by making this news grabbing headlines rather than just focusing of short term action FIRST and longer term SECOND.

I think this idea of a massive bearmarket has blinded him and he is now forcing counts onto the charts that aren't really there.

[NocMonDude]

I believe you are missing the overall count since 1930. I count 5 clear waves up. The normal place for wave C to terminate is near the beginning of wave 4. That's around 550. I think Prechter has it right. Your count can work, but not when you take the larger view into account. It doesn't make sense. Wave 2 can retrace nearly all of wave 1.

[Andronichuk]

Hi NocMonDude, thanks for subscribing and thanks for the input.

The problem is that corrective waves (since the grand super cycle top) do not have to nessisarily be a crash... they can be a prolonged sideways movement (as in 1965-1975)... prechter has pretty much dismissed the idea that this is a real posibility... but it is.

Secondly, what he is calling a wave 1 from Oct2007-March 2008 I think I have a far more convincing A-B-C count... so it can't be impulsive...

[Andronichuk]

(continued)

And if it is not impulsive, and not a wave 1 (as he claims) then the market can infact make new highs above those of 2007!

This is key to keep in mind. And I think there is a real danger of this happening.

Tell me what you think.

[jdbrown371]

What charting program do you use? I really like the continuous zoom.

[Mike3gdc]

Hey Max,interesting.thanks for your awesome work..however,if you look at monthly chart on DOW,you see a massive expanding flat with the C ended on March 09 and rally from march 09 is unfolding in 5 waves which in my view,is truncated 5th.

[Jinxu27]

@Andronichuk I think you are neglecting the idea that a grand super cycle top implies that the following correction would be of the same degree.

[TheBullBearReport]

For a bullish view using Elliott Wave visit w w w , TheBullBear . c o m

[straty01]

@NocMonDude nobody really knows but someone will have it right AFTER it has happened, as always

[pw200688018]

Love it. I actually agreed with your vedio, but the dow seems to be going higher so rethinking something else may have to been looked at soo. But tahnk you. I like the indebt detail.

[mattieho100]

Hi I think it has ending diagonal all over the wave to the all time high, fits with the very long wave 3.

[bmw528i00]

I like your count here. I have seen Prechter's count for the long-term DOW and I just find a few things odd with it: 1. He's comparing a US stock index to a London stock index from a few hundred years ago 2. His first ABC correction doesn't look too corrective and 3. Even if his count is correct, the Rule of Alternation states that another ABC decline cannot happen, instead we should be looking for an exaggerated sideways WXY or any complex declining pattern.