Animation of sea ice concentration

The feature shown on the globe on the right side of the animation is the sea ice concentration simulated by the GFDL CM2.1 global coupled climate model averaged over August, September and October of each year (the months of the year when Northern Hemisphere sea ice concentrations generally are at a minimum). Sea ice concentration is a measure of how much of the area is covered by sea ice, and is shown here for CM2.1 in part because it looks most like what a satellite sees. The colors on the globe range from dark blue (ice free) to white (100 percent ice covered). The graph on the right side shows how the Northern Hemisphere summer sea ice extent varies over time in this model simulation. The thick tan curve extends from the start of the simulation to the year shown on the globe. (The frame displayed above the right was taken from year 2040.) A value of 1.0 on the vertical axis (horizontal line) corresponds to the average Arctic sea ice extent the model simulated for August through October during the twenty year period 1981 to 2000. A year with a value of 1.4 indicates that 40% more of the model's Arctic was covered with sea ice that year than was the case for the average from 1981 to 2000. Similarly, a value of 0.6 indicates a 40% reduction in sea ice extent compared to the 1981 to 2000 average. Note that by the end of the 21st century, the modeled summer sea ice extent in the Arctic is less than 20 percent of the 1981 to 2000 average.

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Science & Technology

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• artic
• sea
• ice
• ipcc