On Avian Flu, Part I: Is a Pandemic Coming?

In this video, I've talked about the risk of an avian flu pandemic, and how it might affect you if one happens.

Here is a technical discussion of how bird flu might adapt to humans to produce a pandemic:

http://www.innovations-report.de/html/berichte/medizin_gesundheit/bericht-803...

The brief graphic in this video is from Dr. Larry Brilliant's excellent presentation to TED in 2006. You can find the entire presentation here - and I do recommend you see his presentation, it's fascinating.

http://www.ted.com/tedtalks/tedtalksplayer.cfm?key=l_brilliant

This brief excerpt is taken by me without permission under the Fair Use doctrine in US copyright law, which permits brief excerpting of copyrighted materials for the purposes of education, news reporting, and commentary. (And parody, but I won't go there with this video.)

And here is a video which discusses the danger. It's not objective - it's promoting IBM - but the facts as given agree with the reading I've done.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qCRBk4d8KtI&mode=related&search=

I tend to work on several video scripts in parallel. I'm still working on cancer scripts, but "On Avian Flu" was ready to roll, so I decided to go ahead and produce these videos. I hope you enjoy them.

And yes, I know I've been delinquint in producing poetry readings. Mea culpa. I promise I'll get back to that by April, honest.

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• flu
• influenza
• pandemic
• bird
• avian
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[vigilant006]

Yes Urgelt it is a Puzzel. i think your right. i think this A H1N1 will burn out or come back in Aumtum. however i must ask this. is there a chance that if A/H1N1 goes pandemic is there a chance that it could link on to H5N1? giving H5N1 a chance to make its break. and yes i am still very concerned about H5N1. but this what we are seeing now is a great deminstration on how our Goverments are working.

[Urgelt]

Any of the human-adapted strains of influenza which is making the rounds could contribute genes to H5N1 and confer transmissibility. The opportunity arises when both diseases coinfect a single host at the same time.

Such a strain of H5N1 might be less deadly; it depends on what genes it picks up.

I think we will not be seeing governments pull out the stops for A/H1N1. I doubt we'll see quarantines, for example. For a transmissible H5N1, they'll be a lot more aggressive. They'll have to be.

[vigilant006]

And yes Urgelt. i also think A/H1N1 may not be the " BIg One" however it is early days and the spainish fly of 1918 did last 2 years. what if this mutates in mexico or china (when it gets there) into a new veriant or strain. this is what WHO are worried about.

[Urgelt]

I'm saving my biggest concern for H5N1. That virus isn't dangerous to us yet, but the potential threat is much, much greater.

But of course you're right, viruses mutate, and a threat to humanity can come from any direction.

Right now, the big challenge for WHO is to explain why A/H1N1 seems to be mild in the US and Canada, but in Mexico it's taking lives.  It's a puzzle.

[Urgelt]

Vaccines, by the way, are of dubious use against the flu. It takes so long to get them into production, when they finally reach the market, oftentimes the viruses in circulation have changed, rendering the vaccines ineffective.

It's a profit center for the pharmaceutical industry, though, so you can be sure they will flog their products hard with governments and the media.

I tend to think that anti-virals administered after onset of symptoms is more health care bang for the buck.

[Urgelt]

Videography is just a hobby, and like any hobby, sometimes it must be shoved aside to accommodate real life. I'd like to return to it at some point, but I have no idea when that might be.

I haven't changed my view of A/H1N1. It's producing some deaths. But so does seasonal flu.

For a virus against which many people have no resistance, it's relatively mild. But you shouldn't take chances. If you contract it, see a doctor immediately.

[vigilant006]

Urgelt, hello again we chated about 5 months ago. i think you should address the people of Youtube on H1N1. i have stock piled food and 25 leters of water and food for one month. which i think if rationed may last 2 months. i am also watching Mexico and what the local goverment is doing there. how they are corden off the city. trainsport is next to be shut down in my view. i think this will be in london in the next 3 days. how bad this can get ..i just dont know.

[Urgelt]

I won't wear a mask for this one. If I get flu symptoms, though, I'll see a doctor right away. I won't wait for an appointment.

Why? Because A/H1N1 is vulnerable to anti-viral drugs such as Tamiflu.

If you are treated with an anti-viral drug within 48 hours of onset of symptoms, it should lesson symptoms and speed recovery.

I always have a stockpile of canned goods, batteries and toilet paper in the house. It's common sense to be prepared for disruptions in routine; they can happen.

[Urgelt]

There is still quite a lot to learn about A/H1N1 swine flu. But the early data suggests to me that it's nothing like the Spanish flu.

Influenza is never completely benign. Every flu season brings some deaths. Perhaps once every 15-25 years, a more serious pandemic emerges that hits a little harder.

The Spanish Flu was something else entirely. By some estimates it left more than 100 million people dead. It could happen again; but I don't think A/H1N1 is it.

[TheChicagoComedian]

Urgelt, I've heard that Conutries have begun stockpiling on bottled water and canned foods, I thought you would find this usefull. it seems to be shaping up like the flu of 1918- millions of people wearing masks to protect themselves.. the thougghts of this make me shudder, and even though I am 16, I know many things. please, if you have the time, respond to this.