Are the Builders signaling a 2008 UK Property Crash

This original Video is an excerpt from a July 2007 Podcast on Commodity Watch Radio. It lays out the case for a slide in UK Property, starting in summer 2007. It correctly forecast that banks would dramatically tighten their lending. The forecast used a pattern that the Builders and Real Estate had traced out in the USA about a year earlier. // Note: original video was deleted in July 2008, when it had 12,923 views. - An updated Podcast for July 2008 can be found on Commodity Watch Radio dotcom.

Category:

Education

Tags:

• UK
• property
• crash
• real
• estate
• housing
• bubble
• 2008
• credit
• crunch
• bubb
• frisby
• GEI

[BubbFromGEI]

chain of events :

+ Interest rates are moved lower, eventually hitting a "trigger point"

+ Sentiment picks up

+ Insiders start buying builder shares

+ Deals closed pick up, and Loan applications shoot up

+ House prices begin to rise on stronger demand

+ Data is compiled by Halifax and Nationwide

+ House price indices are released to the public

+ The mainstream press and EA's get busy talking about the "signs of recovery"

+ Naive buyers "follow the bandwagon",

[BubbFromGEI]

The Builders Bellwether index (composed of four UK builder shares: Barratt, Taylor Wimpey, Persimmon, Balfour Beatty) did a great job of anticipating the Peak in UK property. The builders shares peaked at year-end 2007, and 8 months later, in August 2007, the Hallfax index (NSA) peaked at Pds.201,081.

By July 2008, it was down -11.26%, and falling fast.

Updates: on Talk-View dotcom

[BubbFromGEI]

Yes. It is the same video has before. Previously it achieved 12,923 Views, and was one of the most popular videos on UK Property. What happened? I simply hit the wrong button, and watched hopelessly as the video was deleted. It's back now, and those who like it may want to check out the July 2008 Property podcast of Commodity Watch Radio dotcom- Everyone is a BEAR now!, just as this original podcast had forecast: Elvis Found!

[JYTILLIER]

Are those curves based only on the current houses up for sale or all the houses in the country?

If only the old dirty houses remains, isn't this curve going to decrease?

If the builder only built affordable houses during 3-4 years and no large expensive houses, isn't this curve going to decrease?

[HollandParker]

This video looks very familiar. What happened to the old one.