Piers Corbyn winter 2011-12 forecast.wmv

***UPDATE*** November 24th 2011
http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=394&c=5

What is going on?

Piers says "As we mentioned on http://bit.ly/sOFjJe the first ~ ten days of November were very mild as we forecast but the second ~ten days have not shown much of the cooling we expected. We now think it noteworthy that this deviation from the forecast -- while anyway being in a lower confidence period (see http://bit.ly/tpTL3q ) -- coincided with a rare giant 800,000km filament across the Sun -- see http://bit.ly/uqtElB.

"This may have upset the Atlantic pressure blocking we expected to develop. Interestingly our November possible scenario pressure maps (available to subscribers to both UK & Ire 15-45day forecasts and to European Maps forecasts -- see http://bit.ly/dNhlNo for access) although much milder did include Lows tracking into the Med while the pattern further North was shifted substantially West.

"Standard computer models have been thrashing around all over the place since Nov 16 -- as we warned they would http://bit.ly/tpTL3q -- but are now showing clear signs of the developing extra cold blast of Arctic origin we originally expected to give a big hit from ~27 Nov. Current projections show a substantial blast developing 2 days later for Nov 29 http://bit.ly/uqCyS7 . Of course we want it to turn colder than this but expect further developments which we will discuss on 29th Nov".
I've included text in the video covering the main points because of the audio clarity.

Piers' Website
http://www.weatheraction.com/

Climate Fools Day 2011 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGVzZvX4J6U

Weather Action You Tube channel
http://www.youtube.com/user/1weatheraction


More specific detailed forecasts are available from the weatheraction website.

Category:

Science & Technology

Tags:

• 'climate
• fools
• day'
• piers
• corbyn
• climate
• 'winter
• 2011/12'
• winter
• snow
• long
• range
• weather
• forecast
• solar
• activity
• Cold

[G2DU]

Any comments made are approved before they appear, but I'll try and ensure minimal delay. The only comments I'll delete are those which are abusive, rude or inflammatory. Comments of differing opinions are welcome as is any constructive criticism.

[GBRIVORBIGUN]

This forecast is very unlikely to be correct in my opinion. We are currently experiencing a very cold stratosphere, positive AO/NAO. The result of this means Dec is likely to remain mostly mild with only the odd shortlived cold snap. What is unlikely is any high lattitude blocking bringing prolonged cold spells like Dec 2010. I will add that I would love to be wrong as I enjoy cold, snowy spells of weather.

[G2DU]

@GBRIVORBIGUN Comment today (see update link)

Latest GFS charts and Snow Risk charts show a run of intense LP systems running through Scotland peaking on Saturday with a particularly severe storm which will culminate in blizzards sweeping Scotland. Into Monday the risk of snow spreads southwards to clip the M4 corridor by this time next week. Suddenly we have LP to our NE and a raging Northerly gale for Dec 5th... For those who subscribed to the December forecast then smile smugly now!!!

[G2DU]

@GBRIVORBIGUN Thank you for a valued opinion and your courtesy. What you say makes sense and I confess I don't fully understand Piers' forecasting methods, however should the unexpected occur contrary to the majority of current models the validation could prove 'more' significant. Perhaps I'm over optimistic but then the thought of seeing some snow..... I'll continue to update through the comments section. Thanks again.

[tom432011]

@kargenlewis you sir are an idiot.

He just made predictions for specific weather on specific days about a month ahead. In weather forecasting that is almost unheard of.

[owenhunt]

@kargenlewis Meteorologists in a few decades time may look back at the vagueness of current forecasting and wonder how we ever coped as a race. Besides, the MET office short term forecasts are hardly more detailed and yet are often still wrong in predicting precipitation, temperature trends etc. (as I found out the last two winters).

[manoffireandlight]

@amb212212

Clearly you don't live anywhere in Western Europe.

[pierscorbyn2]

Thanks for comments citizens and Seasons Greetings for 2012. For a review Twitpic review of our forecasts 2011 go to link on recent comments posts on WeatherAction website

[amb212212]

The forecast for Ireland and Great Britain was updated by Piers at the end of November.That updated forecast seemed to be quiet accurate.I doubted his ability to forecast so far ahead but i have to say well done Piers for this Month.I didn't think it could be done.

[wpsmith62]

Okay i like Piers theory and is certainly more accurate than the MET OFFICE, but this snow just didn't materialise in anywhere near the quantities that were forcast, very mild in the south has been all month not a sniff of winter sorry i really wanted it to snow just to shut the met office up

[GregKoziol]

His prediction of DEC 15-17th being mild in Northern U.S.A. was accurate. I know because I live in this area, normally temps during the day should be about freezing, and they have been well above that.

[hansjalv]

The date as I write is December 14 2011. I live in nothern Sweden and we're having the warmest winter on record up here. It did snow a couple of days ago (for the first time this winter) but the temperature is now back up above 0 degrees centigrade and the snow is thawing. In short: You're not going to find many fans of Piers Corbyn up here. Somthing has gone VERY wrong with the weather (read: climate). Come up to Scandinavia and see for yourself!

[pierscorbyn2]

Citizens, please note THIS FORECAST (first issued 16Oct in Madrid) WAS UPDATED. FOLLOWING CURIOUS EVENTS ON SUN. PLEASE SEE 29th NOV VIDEO POSTED ON CLIMATE REALISTS re DECEMBER - still top of hit list. Some parts of first statement hold but "Exceptional" cold Brit+Ire + West Europe to 28 Dec was changed. Colder than normal yes but not "exceptional"; much milder from ~28th still holds Thanks Piers

[pierscorbyn2]

Citizens, please note THIS FORECAST (first issued 16Oct in Madrid) WAS UPDATED. FOLLOWING CURIOUS EVENTS ON SUN. PLEASE SEE 29th NOV VIDEO POSTED ON CLIMATE REALISTS re DECEMBER - still top of hit list. Some parts of first statement hold but "Exceptional" cold Brit+Ire + West Europe to 28 Dec was chaged. Colder than normal yes but not "exceptional"; much milder from ~28th still holds Thanks Piers

[MrHarvey1968]

@WBCTproductionz Don't ask Piers - he has it hopelessly wrong so far

[WBCTproductionz]

@G2DU Hey i live in the south of the uk will i get any snow( enough to build a snowman) this winter.